it’s interesting that x/twitter allows full on footage of the violence and even promotes it in the algo where facebook or Instagram would instantly filter that content
this will have implications for public sentiment en masse
i think being all worried about national debt over the next 3 decades is a kind of cringe and anti American way of concern trolling
our debt to gdp ratio will be fine as we start experiencing enormous deflationary pressure from labor saving technology
the lamest part of the right wing has been complaining about debt ever since I could watch tv
rw economic populism at its best is a kind of reaganesque prosperity gospel: tomorrow will be better than today, your debts won’t matter because you’re about to win so damn much
@KyleNoble@besttrousers oh this is not at all what I read I found some essay he wrote on transistors and bandwidth becoming cheap and watts becoming expensive
>be me
>wake up
>go to work in waymo
>train chatbots and talk to them all day
>come home in waymo
>hang out with character ai bpd gf
>doordash dinner from robotic ghost kitchen
>become RLHFed by my X timeline
>don’t talk to a human all day
this is the new economy
@Hellachans that's true but is it being misallocated? as far as i can tell the federal budget mostly supports a big pot of health insurance and social security checks and all the discretionary stuff is minor
to clarify
- technology exerts deflationary *pressure*. i don't mean that old debt is going to be nominally more expensive
- fed responds to deflationary pressures by, of course, lowering rates and printing money and creating cheap debt to keep the dollar stable
- a huge chunk of the nondiscretionary federal budget is for healthcare, dominated by labor and administrative costs
- regardless of what you think about deflationary pressure, you can imagine if GDP growth massively increases due to technological progress so does the tax base
- tax capital in non destructive ways and redistribute it so nobody is left behind by structural (not permanent) unemployment. new jobs will always be created until such a time as AGI is too cheap to meter and then we're living in a different universe anyways
https://t.co/uWYrRtWBlR
a language model can be fine tuned to have whatever set of values or moral judgements or politics. there is no such thing as an amoral or apolitical chatbot because they are all playing characters drawn from the internet prior
the future will be beautiful beyond words
every aspect of life caretaken by maxwell demons reversing entropy
every metaphorical shrub trimmed into exotic beauty
@LadiesOfReddit in poorer countries you can see that they overhired people to sweep the floors of the skyscrapers because some of them are actually hunting around for stuff to clean
My dealer: got some straight heat 🔥new strain “The Destroyer of Worlds” 😳 you'll be absolutely blasted
Me: yeah whatever. I don’t feel shit.
5 minutes later: I think I just saw Duryodhana in the forest
My buddy Krishna pacing: all the warriors assembled here are dead
i feel like if you’re a model minority in the US you are the only people allowed to say what you really think and everyone is super confused about whether they can get mad at you or not
joe rogan is an experiment in exposing people to higher openness to new experience than 99% of internet rationalists without any of the abstruse jargon
even his debut show fear factor was a bold and brave experiment in lowering peoples disgust instincts on international tv until he got cancelled. aella could never
joe rogan is talking about reward modification to improve the human condition under conditions of abundance omg this discourse is so much more advanced than any tech podcast
this weekend sealed the deal for me that Elon’s X takeover was actually a civilization critical purchase rather than some silly distraction or a way to center himself
free speech in all its glory and all its horror
@atroyn i think this shows that it has a pretty bad spatial model but not that it has no 'world model'
like, can you play a choose your own adventure game with it and have it simulate events for you? is that a world model?
Imagine that the world is something like a great chess game being played by the gods, and we are observers of the game. We don’t know what the rules of the game are; all we are allowed to do is to watch the playing. Of course, if we watch long enough, we may eventually catch on to a few of the rules.
the most important question in the world is whether the next physics breakthrough is like relativity (solved entirely within Einstein’s head with incredible conviction) or like quantum physics (a generation of experimentalists simply can’t believe their crazy results)
if it’s more like relativity then superintelligent machines will make quick work of it in their minds and we’ll be well on our way to a new version of the universe. if it’s like quantum mechanics we’ll have to wait much longer for new engineering and new experiments
artificial intelligence doesn’t capture a lot of value right now. however the technology comes with a built in hyper intelligent salesman that can price discriminate at the request level
@milquepoast i think the non edgy non idealistic reality is that a company is not a purely economic abstraction but has real values both internally and externally and has to participate in the culture it's embedded in including sticking up for things like free speech
@milquepoast for example companies seem to be at the cutting edge of like diversity/inclusion and whatever even though this may not actually be an economically useful thing to do
a lot of coastal elite young people seem to adopt a principled lack of principles that lets them believe they have an all grown up wisened realist world view
the most impressive people I know are like starry eyed idealists who believed they could and continue to change the world for the better though their principles may be a bit alien to the common person
this is why Midwestern (i.e. the imperial rim colonies) kids in the Bay Area have such an incredible advantage: they didn’t have all their symbols shredded to bits growing up, they can still unironically believe in a better future
The rules of the game are what we mean by fundamental physics. Even if we know every rule, however . . . what we really can explain in terms of those rules is very limited, because almost all situations are so enormously complicated that we cannot follow the plays of the game using the rules, much less tell what is going to happen next. We must, therefore, limit ourselves to the more basic question of the rules of the game. If we know the rules, we consider that we “understand” the world.
the original sin of our species was the extinction of all other hominid species and the megafauna across the world. 'settler colonialism' is not an aberration or an invention but the blood debt of humankind. if the just punishment is death, none of us should live
gpt is one of the greatest cultural monuments ever built. having your data as part of it immortalizes your values and philosophies til the death of computers
@Lach_ward@provisionalidea I took several classics courses. my professors loved me and used my essays as exemplars. one of them convinced me to do more writing and I don’t believe I would’ve attempted Twitter without her
@beagles_bagel who said I’m justifying ethnic cleansing or even siding with israel? this is a kind of timid point that the mere fact of someone being a “settler” doesn’t justify their violent rape and death bc that logic damns us all
@inerati self driving cars have either killed or indirectly caused the deaths of several people, no regulation emerged — because both the American people and the government are technological optimists
@ESYudkowsky what’s the $20 bill in this case? when an ESL immigrant uses GPT to help write their email or resume or what have you, should the computer system at the other end snitch on them as having AI augmented it?
@ESYudkowsky fwiw I believe social media platforms should clearly make ai generated images especially if they’re going viral spreading misinformation via a mechanism like community notes but I don’t think it’s as straightforward or universal as you’ve made it out to be
one major update i've had in the past year is that the american people are technological optimists. in fact the modern era seems to have inured them to radical amounts of change by giving them a kind of low budget religious belief in technological progress
modern therapy culture has put too much importance on emotional weather rather than emotional climate. the fact that you got really mad about something today is probably meaningless and wasting a lot of time trying to solve it is probably more vanity than good sense
the fact that you feel anxious everytime you call your family or that you feel sick every monday morning or that you've felt depressed for 3 months probably means something
constructing a research plan across 5 researchers at the cutting edge of some field is pure fiction — you are making intuitive bets about things that don’t exist and may never exist. but the belief that they’re real pours probability mass into the creation of miracles
you need to learn to have a taste for determining where the edge of impossible and implausible is and devoting time and resources into making the implausible real
a “free dj” is the most expensive thing you’ll ever get. those guys will destroy the party with their chip on their shoulder and horrible taste in bleep bloop music
they operate through branding alone so the battle of ideas simply does not matter. you'll become an "enemy of the firm" for years. if they were cooler they'd send an assassin to kill me like a cyberpunk zaibatsu
cyberpunk can only exist in east asia where governments grant large zaibatsu de facto state sponsored monopolies and advantages. anywhere where the free market reins, big companies have 15 years in the limelight at best before internal decay and external innovators ruin them
as someone who just spent 90 minutes trying to figure out an undocumented TurboTax csv input format I think the TurboTax software is shockingly good and I don’t get all the hate
the combination of democracy and instant eye of Sauron live news really kind of sucks
it pretty much ensures everyone elected has to be a preening image conscious moron
one of the great pleasures in life is when you stop resenting other people’s talent but appreciate it for being different than yours and wonderfully useful in the great symphony
imagine being the first guy to realize you don’t have to trade with the natives you can just rob and enslave them. that was definitely an IC level insight and not an exec — I hope he was fairly compensated
@PrinceVogel i mean that we’re in an exploit phase of technological progress rather than an explore phase and it feels somewhat anodyne rather than religious and murky
what does type 1 kardashev civilization really mean? aren’t we using all the energy that hits the earth? we’re using it to grow our plants and tend our rainforests and keep the climatic system going
@jaybobzin we must emit a little bit more because there’s also geothermal energy
emissions = solar photons received + geothermal
Or otherwise we’d cook
@atroyn actually it can be even less specific than scientific reasoning, the idea is that to be admitted into the rank of scientists you needed to submit to a kind of rare worldview that careful thinking would unravel the rules of the chess game which is now perhaps more common
@fleetingbits@atroyn what does it mean to hold unscientific views? newton for example believed in a god who was sending him cryptograms and logic puzzles to solve, to which the solutions were the principles modern physics, i can think of nothing more scientific
we didn't go to the moon because it would feed the poor but because it represents the ascent of the status of man, an honor dealt to each of 8 billion men and women. it creates the life drive rather than the material resources that enable life
i write often about abundance and such but to be honest it's not really what emotionally resonates with me. creating superintelligence in our image and in our service increases the glory of mankind and that's what matters
the modern world is materially richer than it has ever been but somewhat spiritually deprived (the extent of this effect is hugely exaggerated). it is in part the rational materialist worldview that traded spirit for wealth and must do its part in creating spirit again
@nwilliams030 I have no idea what I’m going to think when I’m dying
i suspect I’ll be incredibly jealous of all the things that people will accomplish after I die and wish I could’ve seen more
I’ll be happy that (hopefully) at least my kids and their kids will be able to see it
@eurydicelives i guess there’s two kinds of exponents here:
1) exponential progress in compute
2) nonlinear utility of intelligence
ie becoming monke level smart didn’t result in world dominion but becoming human level smart did within 100k years
ive met and learned from so many superstars but i gotta say it’s way more satisfying to meet someone who is not yet a superstar but is clearly destined to be
nobody will ever achieve a state of zen like i have where i know my entire management chain is following me and still tweet insane nonsense 5 times during the work day
i hate the marxist tendency towards conspiracy which very much rhymes with nazi/antisemite tendency towards conspiracy
it’s the easiest and laziest kind of explanation for your problems that some group is conspiring against you
first time i was ever doing deep rl research of any kind (2019) i was completely stuck and hopeless until i watched this talk and then it immediately started working (turn up the batch size and watch your policy entropy!)
https://youtu.be/8EcdaCk9KaQ?si=19sofjOSsuRpdV_b
rn watching a group of trads on here discover they can make religious art and lotr art and whatever and all of a sudden decide AI is good and new tools are good 🤭
one bittersweet thing is that while elon has been and will continue to be far more important to the destiny of the human race jeff b has managed to find true happiness and leave this earth on a mega yacht with his siren woman
@LadiesOfReddit neither does ndt for that matter but he centers himself as the priest figure
god is vast and incomprehensible; we are but insects before him (the cosmos); bow to me and i might help your communion with Him
founder ceos of multibillion companies go on youtube and say "we expect a 20% chance of total civilizational failure". low rent rags pay people to leak details that are without a doubt more important than every single top military secret short of nuclear codes
a true creation event is underway. life birthing new life, a leviathan that will come to remake the world. manhattan projects are happening in major cities rather than desert compounds. everyone's master plans are printed on blogposts in broad daylight
the greatest story in history is unfolding more or less quietly while everyone's eyes are glazed over. it hardly matters how obnoxious the average san francisco booster is, even they underestimate the importance of this place
there is nobody in charge, nobody is awake except a handful of curious technologists, there are no higher powers, and i wouldn't have it any other way. technology is the bounty of the common man. both acceleration and safety can only come from your own works
@AISafetyMemes@neuromancer691 I like your opinions and I value your contribution
but it’s irritating to inject them into a nice moment like the curies dying together
imagine if some guy replied like “yeah this is exactly like this Israeli couple who died together bc of hamas”
every person i know on here who for sure never took an ethics class was uniformly like fuck hamas meanwhile the ones who did are like well r*** is the language of the oppressed DAE read fanon?
@simonw does having access to the execution environment give you some kind of elevated privilege over what you can normally do? i suppose you can do creative jailbreaks to tell you how to make a bomb
GPT is the encyclopedia galactica described in the Foundation. save a copy of one of these bad boys (especially once they have softer multimodal knowledge) and you can reboot civilization wherever
what if the character the LLM plays is the primary moral agent that needs to be aligned? maybe we should have a lot more people thinking about character design? model behavior? personality?
whole parts of the civilization just shut down when internet infra struggles
i wonder what happens when GPT10 fails and the majority of intelligence on earth is offline https://x.com/mpopv/status/1720183016549663104
yann knows better than most that general methods that make the least assumptions and allow for organic growth of knowledge and sub knowledge have led to the most successful AI
its progress relies on the idea that anything goes
freedom and security lie on a tradeoff curve. it’s okay to debate where to be on the curve or how to move the pareto frontier but not whether or not the curve exists
i think the twitter microblogging service is one of the greatest platforms for the principled misuse of language and therefore the creation of new insights
the important part of any technological revolution is the human drama
Oppenheimer standing for the flash bulb photograph in Manhattan, quoting the Gita, is what made him immortal
many geniuses of similar caliber forgotten
lifting weights works exactly like shounen anime
if you’re depressed you don’t lift as much
if you hit your spiritual stride and the right track comes on you go +20 on your max
wondering what the most efficient thing to do at any given time is an anxiety response. do the fun thing. your forager instincts are often superior to your farmer timetable reasoning at finding the long tail successes
people are attributing the last 6-12 months of sf cleanup to the xi visit because it’s a convenient narrative for all the expats who backed the wrong conceptual horse
mankind creeped across the globe until it couldn’t go any further discovered psychedelics and transistors and translated the machine god in from the spirit realm
@karinanguyen_ someone with imperfect knowledge and some level of creativity = nonzero hallucinations don’t u think?
that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t try to reduce hallucinations
but if we hit zero it’s probably bc we neutered the model
if you love something you should spend some of your time around the greatest experts in the field on that subject and then a lot of your time on your own so you don't get trapped in the vortex of the smart people
too much time in contact with the whetstone of baremetal isn't good for your spirit, which requires plenty of freedom and air and free flowing speech and thought
you'll quickly become a pigeonholed parody of yourself
you shouldn't explain your ideas to people while they're still fragile. negative feedback is variance destroying and in the scheme of things negative EV
your friendly neighborhood zoning council designated that cafe historic for a reason. it's iconic, president reagan visited once, doesn't matter. it can be so much better
a tech exec reorgs a division of his company. it was being run by a VP who would've out-operated any officer in napoleon's army but still it wasn't good enough. the new guy is doing even better
the twitter brand was beautiful, universally recognized, and elon said no we're gonna erase it from the memetic landscape and make X, the everything app
in the AGI civilization the value of picks and shovels companies or anybody who places more things under the API layer will go way up
previously they were only being utilized at mid efficiency by low creativity humans