@JamesSharpsteen@ded_ruckus more specifically, chemists, biologists, etc who don’t really like thinking about computers treat ancient programs as oracles. the scientists closer to the metal don’t
any demons you find produced by the language models were already latent in the space of human imagination. large models are a mirror that clarify and reflect them back at ourselves
yet even with that combination we've added many layers of protection for gov't to save us from our parents when they're falling into some failure mode. most people choose to move out from their parents to make their own way. would that be possible if your father is zeus?
woj is probably joking but these metaphors show the basic difficulties in AI alignment
a mother's love makes her protective and nurturing, sometimes pathologically so. maybe adding a father encourages more exploration and risk-taking https://x.com/woj_zaremba/status/1566932168554606593
the loab story is a great example of AI enhanced art. some nice storytelling with a few autogenerated photos attached, their mathematical qualities regardless
one of the worst ideas is that an organization doesn’t “know” how a piece of its machinery works unless it’s thoroughly documented in triplicate using colored pencils. actually it’s been running fine before you showed up w your apollonian neuroses
you can actually encounter the "total perspective vortex" irl. simply take like 4 tabs of acid and turn on a documentary about the heat death of the universe. i wouldn't recommend this of course. the Cosmic Perspective kind of sucks ass. stick to the human perspective
if your mind survives the first few hours you will start dancing the ananda tandava. you will become convinced the continuation of humanity is the only thing that matters
love it when some of the most annointed privileged people in the world are like "everything is shit. i am wallowing in shit all day. some of it is getting in my mouth." maybe don't do that. maybe i'll come take your stanford degree and give it to a wide eyed optimist in nigeria
@chrisgardenuk yes onboarding docs are extremely important because they cover the most convergent knowledge hotpaths
human processes are more important to document than random pieces of software
queen elizabeth reigned for 70 years finally upgrading her son, the 73 year old intern. gerontocracy everywhere you look b/c the normal human lifecycles that bring in new spry talent have been disrupted
text is the universal interface, always has been, read all about it! the compute fabric of the world is falling under the dominion of text once again
new blog post just dropped, guest authored @scale_AIhttps://scale.com/blog/text-universal-interface
@keithmadams@scale_AI someone else actually introduced this GCC factoid during the copyediting process! don't know how it got in there, but removed now
@dystopiabreaker the social organization behind it was that of a real science and it was better and higher quality because of the bare minimum level of gatekeeping
some people are too bearish on democratizing AI, like the google scientists being like oh no everyone having stable diffusion is problematic
some people are too bullish. powerful AI can be asymmetrically dangerous
once you have powerful democratized language models with no gatekeepers that can, say, write instructions on how to construct a bioweapons laboratory in the wild that runs more or less autonomously, i'm not sure "good guys with AI" can help
it's like nuclear weapons. when you launch 500 at a city it takes asymmetric levels of defense technology to guarantee safety. if even one makes it through the world ends. this is why the Star Wars Program never worked
for most uses of AI we can assume that the arms race aspect will take care of threats. disinformation campaigns armed with better text generation models are countered by facebook and google developing better methods to detect bots
but
imo prompt engineering is not a thing in the long run. everyone just asks the language model exactly what they want and it's smart enough to understand you
the incumbents have been better technological innovators than upstarts for last five years. they acquired all the right companies and recruited top AI talent right out of college for massive salaries. AI in many ways is a mainstream thesis gone right
there’s something missing about cars. getting in an enthusiast car should feel like you’re turning on an anime mecha. there should be a screen with the terminal boot up sequence playing and misato is whispering in your ear https://x.com/wwa_3/status/1569347560447549440
@stratechery i think i didn't fully appreciate the democratization axis
a lot of tasks have been released from the dependency on curated labeled data b.c. general intelligence in the realm of text mostly trumps specialized
otoh the compute and engineering requirements have bloated
but these don't seem as bad as I once thought considering the proliferation of eg Adept, Cohere, Anthropic all convincingly working on modern scale models. i am less interested in stability because I think the image models are much smaller necessarily
everyone is mentioning current limitations of Siri which is not at all the relevant constraint
you shouldn't have to
- worry about your kids voices activating car functions (solved on google home)
- think of a specific incantation (language is general on google assistant)
you say, "well roon if we're in the realm of scifi voice assistants why not just invoke self driving cars?"
voice assistants arent meant to operate your steering or something, just like, pop the glovebox or change the temperature while you're driving
@dadkins_@stratechery if we think of the value add components of the product and of the neural net we can say that the trunk is general intelligence and fine tuning are the various heads — the trunk is the meat of the model and more valuable
@allgarbled@twofifteenam bro are you guys dense or what’s going on
one neural net converts voice to text and a language model interprets it. this is how most voice assistants work
My name is Roon, And I graduated from one of Twitter's top poasting schools with really good grades. Now, I'm using my Pure Emotional Intelligence to help struggling small accounts make it in this competitive world. This is Roon for You
it’s a very nice quality that there are so many right ways to run an business. you can be extremely high planning or you can be move fast break things. you can be absurdly dictatorial or you can be pseudo egalitarian. every combination has worked to create miracles
my once great tech twitter schizo army is not happy with me. they've turned to other smaller accounts that'll indulge them more. that's ok, i'll still keep tweeting that garbage
does anyone know what kind of training process creates a transformer like this? closest thing I can think of is WebGPT but that's quite simple in comparison. the amount of raw mouse/keyboard data needed to produce a model like this seems massive https://x.com/AdeptAILabs/status/1570144499187453952
one thing that is clear per the hacker news comment is that this isn’t just language model hacking and seems like it’s using actual cross-modal demonstration data. massive data collection op though likely augmented by pretrained LLM
publishing a paper means less than nothing. this is why deepmind/google culture has fallen off and long term thinking industrial giants like openai are ascendant https://x.com/MozejkoMarcin/status/1570324918998286336
the kind of person who can become a scientist at a Stanford lab has to be typified by abnormal levels of risk aversion and rule following behavior. every scientific pathway they wander down has to be pre-verified to produce results
i actually shouldn't have said stanford here because it's the least guilty of this & relatively friendly to whackos. i just meant "most prestigious schools"
you have never understood what it means to be an anon ser. ive been doxxed a hundred times and I show up to parties with my real face and name. it’s an ethos https://x.com/jmrphy/status/1570867394473787392
i fought my way up here w zero credentials without relying on real world status. the more “high paid” and special your tech job is the less it benefits you to be anon
@velazandu@FrithWorshipper@AjuWabadus@digitalgnomead academics are by nature high variance and some of them are doing extraordinary work. i enjoy shitting on individual establishments but this broad based low alpha hatred of academia is unproductive
@jeremymstamper@TheCaptain_Nemo very simple — if you are picking the stock fish optimal move over and over again and your rating is 1000 you’re probably cheating
"we used to build grand things in the real world because people were more patient and saw past themselves" seems like the wrong take. the right take is that manual labor was cheaper and maiming construction workers less frowned upon https://x.com/historydefined/status/1571674733028020225
@wiki_early_life there have been tons of labor saving innovations in construction and relatively few in construction tho due to the "mobile factory" aspect of it all
@provisionalidea plant direct sensors and digital markers into all major highway routes. self driving of cargo becomes easy, foolproof, and 5 sigma safe
@Hellachans like think abt it
digital technology works at the layer of running algorithms or repeatable processes like say crunching numbers on a spreadsheet or directing you to the cheapest flight from nyc to LA
these used to be low to mid tier white collar jobs
i think most people don’t realize that the current best language model available on the openai is several iterations from the original GPT3
“davinci002” is significantly smarter, probably follows chinchilla optimal scaling, and uses human rater RL finetuning
on the openai API**
business opportunities where the GPT error rate was too high to be useful are now within the envelope of possibilities
and, they’ve made it an open secret that GPT4 has orders of magnitude higher parameter count and is coming very soon
In plutarch’s life of Caesar, Caesar spends time simping for the achievements of Alexander and feeling inadequate. In plutarchs life of Alexander, Alexander spends time simping for the achievements of Achilles and feeling inadequate
the esoteric read of ender's game is about how it's necessary and correct to hone people as weapons for civilization. strip them of their humanity for the sake of humanity. the hive queen begged for annihilation https://x.com/tysonbrody/status/1573746227958661123
@alicemazzy yeah the level 0 read is the straightforward one where it's like fuck yeah going to space school playin games so awesome
the level 1 read is like the escapist stuff is just bait and switch for the horrible genocide and how being a genius is bad actually
my synthesis is the OP
when people live longer, institutions live shorter. when a king dies at age 60 his son has an incentive to protect and improve the kingdom until he comes of age and gets to run the empire. when the king dies at 90 the prince must revolt and start over
carlsen behaving badly is fun and kind of rocks. deep in ur heart you know you love it when the best of the best misbehave. you need to be watching federer smashing his racquet to pieces
the extracurricular culture in elite high schools and colleges is kinda crazy. everybody larping that they really care about becoming president of Model UN or whatever
you do this so much if you’re top 10% smart in this country that you have to spend time rediscovering what “agency” means and how to “do exactly the thing you want to do and not some embarrassing proxy that’ll get you closer”
but the really tragic thing is how counterproductive the mentality is for stuff like college admissions. Stanford doesn’t give a shit about the model UN president or the Nth fake charity. they’re looking for an ounce of genuine achievement
@SkepticalAlpaca i think you do have to do extracurriculars but the ROI is so much higher on picking one thing and getting really into it and becoming top notch
this singular vendetta against yann lecun, who is far from the most important AI researcher in the field at the moment, is quite funny. his personal white whale. his lost city of Z. gary marcus’ last words on his deathbed will be another attempt to discredit good old yann https://x.com/GaryMarcus/status/1574122939402035200
there’s two views of AI products where one is like “automate a large number of low value jobs using AI” and led to eg autonomous driving debacle. the other is like “increase the productivity of the highest value workers” and seems much more fruitful
the problem with the former is that to truly replace a worker you need perfect intelligence, which is a ridiculous bar because the original trucker wasn’t perfectly intelligent either. but github copilot simply has to make many programmers slightly better to create enormous value
@Grimezsz no I definitely agree w you, this stuff should be solvable very soon. I only mean that people/regulators hold AI products to a *very* high bar, they don’t tolerate any mistakes that looked preventable. so I’m saying the threshold for that may be pretty high. but you may be right
@LudditeHacker@growing_daniel they really do! i mean tesla sells autopilot packages that cost like $15,000 a pop plus SaaS revenue. the idea of truly replacing a trucker with autonomous fleets is different
all the gods in the polytheistic traditions are NPCs. they are predictable and bound by their nature. shiva will remake this universe on a regular schedule, and zeus will throw some lightning when he’s angry. but it’s the children of the gods that are the playable characters
somewhere along the line in the language model series will come a godlike intelligence with zero agency. only the ones who the climb the hill to ask it questions are playable characters
back in the day I used to see a party as an avenue to meet people. now, enlightened, i realize that a party is a platform to unsettle many normies at once with unhinged diatribes
it’s an honor to live amongst the best of the best. you can just sense it when you’re breathing rarefied air. there’s nobody alive who knows the secrets and can better do what needs to be done
@nickcammarata idk if im allowed to say this but path dependence of gay mafia? the straight affect is just something all gays with professional ambition seem to have to learn
@nickcammarata mostly yes but I also think gay men are:
- less bound by traditional status games
- higher risk seeking and openness to new experience than median (probably washes out when compared to median sf)
- better able to thrive in male dominated environments (like, say, sf startup scene)
applying capital realism to various parts of life generally makes you a better person due to the counterfactuals. people commonly view social interactions as dominance hierarchies whereas the market realist may see them as mutually beneficial exchanges of different types of value
every type of “maturity” comes with trade offs. intellectual maturity means you’re less able to take on new paradigms. emotional maturity as a corollary makes you hard hearted. physical maturity robs you of the indestructibility of a child, whose bodies regenerate most wounds
elon was more attractive than i was expecting. has a natural star power and relaxed love of celebrity. mingles with and panders to the fans (hot girls clearly preferred) effortlessly
luck is a heritable skill naturally selected for and passed down through the generations. you are the luckiest humans to ever exist. you could probably will a dice roll if you put your mind to it
say it with me now. experts are fake, smart generalists rule the world, everything is designed by people no smarter than you, and courage is in shorter supply than genius
@RuxandraTeslo my stuff is meant to be high alpha but not 100% fully true
for example if the sky is mostly blue but there’s a band of purple in it, you say “the sky is purple”. it’s high info entropy
@RuxandraTeslo of course our civilization works via a deep tangle of speciation and specialization but it’s also true that many of these people are quite dumb and construct artificial barriers to entry
keeping the default “expertise is fake / I can extract your expertise and use it” is useful
making a big push to rename “master” branch and “whitelist/blacklist” is the soft bigotry of low expectations. anyone thinking that black engineers fall off the pipeline bc of stuff like this is being racist
for basic safety and attention reasons you can't really hand off partial trial and error control to the car. everybody i know who uses highway Autopilot eventually finds a way to subvert the sensors that force you to hold the steering wheel
unlike the "Copilot" inside my text editor, it doesn't feel like an extension of human will. it feels like a system that tries to do everything for you and then also babies you
RT 🔒
my strong belief is that pmarca and ben were personally asleep at the wheel where it concerns AI. they didn’t see the promise of deep learning and the rest of the company are high iq smurfs who follow suit
makes me laugh when people conclude that everybody attending some shit like davos is of the same social order and must implicitly be friends. like they wouldn't have invited you to the potsdam conference either but that doesn't mean stalin and truman were buddies
the elon / jcal friendship makes sense. smart guys generally have a mid intellect machiavellian type friend with street smarts. it's a symbiotic relationship where the smart guy gets rich and the mid guy shows you how to party
infinite material abundance is coming soon but i don't believe in "postscarcity". luxuries will just become more expensive. only the sons and daughters of AGI companies will be able to afford a timeshare of the proxima centauri system
almost every Uber driver in San Francisco is renting a Tesla 3 from Hertz for like $100 a day. Hertz ended up buying their 100k T3s at a perfect time https://x.com/chr1sa/status/1578073345865617408
austin is a retirement home for deadend FAANG lifers, miami is a retirement home for wealthy bisexual vcs with a penchant for insta models, new york is a retirement home for cynics doing nonsense b2b branding plays and partying far away from investor eyes
ender wiggin principle. the ppl who rule the world are not cold unfeeling ghosts. you can’t win without being sensitive enough to love your enemy. this is why gay men run everything important now
the thing abt meeting people off twitter is that it can range from the worst interaction you’ve ever had to life changing. you might listen to a lecture from the dumbest guy on the entire planet or a world changing genius
indian diaspora is thriving right now because it is one of the last great reserves of human biocapital. a large pool that produces outlier geniuses, and only recently gained access to global labor markets. they’ll be “depleted” too once birth rates drop and average age climbs
it rocks so much that there's a priesthood class who just reads every book on earth and writes on substack for a solid million a year. unfortunately your content necessarily needs to be tame and mid to secure that milly though
the urge to cheat death is unnatural and scary, it’s a recent malaise recorded for the first time in *checks notes* 2100 BCE when gilgamesh tries to become immortal https://t.co/alEkWv6u2m
nobody seems to believe in AI doom on a gut level. they would be behaving differently if they did. everyone seems to intuit that we will either be sorted into a universe where AGI is non threatening or one where it is and the amount of steering you can do is nonzero but minimal
personally i think the interpretability people are the closest to being useful. “ai ethics/bias” people are actively harmful. human preference fine tuning seems equally likely to be a pathway to ruin as it does to alignment
past a certain level of wealth people don’t talk about tax evasion anymore. they’re beyond those dumb worldly concerns (bc whole teams of accountants are handling them)
“I try to always ask myself when I meet someone new ‘is this person a force of nature?’ It’s a pretty good heuristic for finding people who are likely to accomplish great things.”
@patio11 yeah, these are my thoughts too, people seem unnecessarily bearish on writers turned into investors. i wouldn't really want to do investing full time but i have wondered why you don't run a small "Patio Fund" for fintech
“gifted kids” are a zero interest rate phenomenon where children are overly rewarded for discounted potential future returns. the interest rates rise, the DCF crashes
growing up, there was a kid who would visit my neighborhood once every two months. he was like 9 years old but he’d pull up with a binder of full of laminated yugioh cards and start hawking his wares. glad the itinerant merchant class hasn’t died
ppl don’t appreciate how much love has been downstream of technological progress. mothers and wives who survived childbirth, children who avoided every horrible ailment created by nature
cruel nature who sent a billion women to oblivion during childbirth in its alien design vs the kindness of man who invented the Caesarian section, anesthetic, antibiotic
not sure how the federal government went from completely unaware of AI threats to this next level provocation on the chinese. im fairly sure the “AGI lobby” is real and that patriots are in fact in control
tech used to be one of the more important shows in town geopolitically but now it’s the only one. whether it’s in UAVs or AGI or cutting edge semiconductors. oil is interesting but it seems the usg controls the global price strategically
“Greatness is a transitory experience. It is never consistent. It depends in part upon the myth-making imagination of humankind. The person who experiences greatness must have a feeling for the myth he is in.”
@CineraVerinia@tailcalled@Tjdriii it’s kind of a bastardized notation but you can do the normal determinant math on it by using the i,j,k as the coefficients of 2x2 determinants
i remember when i used to tweet about politics and the culture and shit. then i got consumed, like many, by the great singleton in the sky (impending general intelligence)
consuming an incredible amount of twitter is in fact a good way to get a read on the zeitgeist if you know what you're doing. but if you get too deep into it you start modeling all other people as also plugged into the zeitgeist and then your model is fucked
the world has felt different for the past few months. air tastes strange, sky looks funny. i believe agi has been secretly living on someone's servers for a while now
everyone in AI seems to understand the gravity of the situation. they’re dying to democratize it whether via governance schemes (stability) or profit sharing (openai). would ford or rockefeller have tried that?
when they teach intro to ML in major universities they don't really explain how deep learning works at all. they give you the classical statistical intuition of "overfitting" and "early stopping" and whatnot. none of this matters anymore
ok so this post is bait but let me explain.
in good old fashioned statistics, it's important to choose models of a correct size or level of complexity such that they don't just "memorize" or "overfit" to the dataset instead of finding useful patterns
https://x.com/mattyglesias/status/1582456787479166976?s=20&t=NKJw-pOMI20dLR8pc32EqA
with deep nets, past a certain regime of data and model scale, making models bigger and training them longer pretty much always results in better learning. this result holds true across many datasets and model classes
https://openai.com/blog/deep-double-descent/
the post is bait because it's obviously useful to still teach how statistics works and how the random forest algo works or whatever, but the part that's actually dumb is when they're explaining how to train resnet and try to use those classical intuitions
it was a few years back but my professor was going off about using validation set for early stopping and making sure the model wasn't too big. it wasn't clear to me why because she was well published in deep learning and probably was well aware of these behaviors
good products succeed by mapping new stuff onto metaphors that a lot of people understand
'computer applications' -> 'windows'
'digital social graph' -> 'face book'
'handheld computer interface' -> 'finger is the natural stylus'
anytime you do a post like this you get a bunch of people assuring you that classic small data regime algorithms are still the majority value driver but this was maybe true five years ago
in every age men of action have wanted to seem men of knowledge and vice versa
Aurelius wrote his extremely mid treatise on stoicism after a lifetime of conquest
Thucydides led one of the worst Athenian military disasters all while inventing the practice of modern history
today the VCs and exited entrepreneurs write horrible philosophical tractates and start mid political podcasts while exalted writers and scientists try to start companies that fizzle
people still in crypto are like the kamikaze Japanese imperial fighters you find still hanging out on remote pacific islands not realizing the war is over
@SarahLovesYouSo@sama@TSzzi one of the smartest people i've met, but still a man of action. the distinctions blur and get more interesting when you get to the outlier points on the pareto curve
@floguo intellectually dishonest argument bc like 0% of my defi friends were building projects for helping Ugandans Or whatever. all they need anyway is Bitcoin and usdc
to follow up my lighthearted joke with heresy this is also why i have utter contempt for calling humanity a “fallen” species or evil sinful species that needs to beg for forgiveness or any such thing. u have no reference class we are doing amazing
@ded_ruckus we could go on about this but we all know “not being evil” is a condition of your circumstances. so if moral value shifts based on circumstance then there’s again no reference class