The gods envy us. They envy us because we're mortal, because any moment may be our last. Everything is more beautiful because we're doomed. You will never be lovelier than you are now. https://x.com/tszzl/status/1490399227821760512
current programming models like copilot/codex are already running up against the data limit of all publicly available code. private codebases are maybe off the table due to IP leakage. for code models to get better they simply have to transfer learn reasoning from commoncrawl
“avoid competition” is weirdly unnatural. rather than be the uncontested best fencing champion in your state you’re more likely to go to the national level competition and get your face stabbed and feel inadequate instead
like essentially 30% of it is true but it has good vibes. y’all are just mad you haven’t written a bestselling globe spanning pseudo religious tech bro doctrine
>you write a pro imperial pro liberal hagiography of humanity that’s kind to the western ruling order
>the entire elite of the species reads it, obama is quoting it in speeches
>sell 20 million copies in 50 languages
>they call you mid on the internet, you laugh
literally everything about the developed west is better including the things everyone whines about. bowling alone is good actually. listening to your mid 4th cousin blather about some nonsense year round isn’t the peak of the human condition
@houellebecq_2 ya maybe but as an analytical argument it’s weak bc aesthetic tastes change and vary and so the rest of the essay doesn’t hold up well for me
@nomanautomata there is nothing profitable about going to Mars ye of little faith
even if there were satchels of cocaine on Mars it would be unprofitable
gleefully refreshing the feeds of like 3 morons on tech twitter who ive been feuding with for years as they rapidly iterate their weapons grade AI copium. “actually it’s not cool or surprising at all that this led to humanlike intelligence and actually it’s dangerous” https://x.com/dystopiabreaker/status/1559387783801712641
all in all I’ll continue to gloat about the victory of nerd aesthetics. actually you can uncover the mysteries of soul and mind using vector calculus only
there hasn’t been a single seminal advance in deep learning to come out of china. we’ve had plenty of groundbreaking advances from chinese researchers in the US though: kaiming he and the resnet for one
in 2016 when deep learning was getting really popular people were just saying wild shit. there’s an interview out there of zucc claiming that vision will be solved once they can make CNNs 500 layers deep
the internet performs a gravitational lensing that dramatically reinforces the views of <2 standard deviation normies and dramatically expands the scope and scale of divergent views in the outer reaches of the >2 std schizophrenic continuum
you need to be modifying your speech to piss off the nonbelievers:
- DON’T say “unrelated”, DO say “orthogonal”
- “random” -> “stochastic”
- “this is fine ig” -> “local minima”
- “sorta like” -> “isomorphic”
it’s a tense moment when health woo nonsense comes head to head with a loved one actually getting sick. the luxury beliefs start melting after first contact with desperation, which is the opposite of what you’d expect. most people’s deepest faith lies with western science
@Caroline30 implied large amounts of volition and agency. simply doing things makes you more attractive and more manly. people excuse a lot of lunacy b.c youre a man on a mission
major con: you're less trustworthy can't go talk to random kids or women sometimes without implications
access to sanitation is way way way more of a human right than healthcare ever will be. making pay toilets illegal and clean sanitation inaccessible is a crime against humanity
@cauchyfriend shared games should be minmaxxed tho. good game designers make it so that there’s still infinite creativity everywhere that’s not the highest level of play
matriarchal societies are longhouse societies — they habitually dampen the ambition of young men to preserve status quo. little ever happens and they eventually get conquered by some patriarchal European society driven by male Faustian angst
Newton saw the whole cosmos as a cryptogram sent to him by god to produce a solution. The profound love and beauty in his struggle are immediately obvious to me and inaccessible to others https://x.com/guavault/status/1560345280524042242
@bastard_brian I hate this reply for a number of reason
first of all the median person alive irrespective of tech nerd has no thoughts on the meaning of life. in fact they studiously try to avoid the question
@bastard_brian second have you listened to any of the rest of the lex interviews where he constantly interviews tech celebs and they have unique and weird answers that are way better than most feminine coded npc responses
@s_r_constantin I agree but the gamesmanship and puzzle solving she’s describing seems unambiguously masculine and unambiguously important for tech progress
sometimes in highly technical companies when you let engineers loose to just build stuff, they start creating insane complex contraptions using the sexiest most cutting edge toys of the day. they never ship anything because theyre chasing perfection and lighting resources on fire
where NASA custom orders million dollar computer memory sticks that are resistant to high radiation bit flipping, spacex simply uses several commodity computers in parallel with error correction. where NASA has custom ribbon cables to connect avionics, spacex uses USB-3.
every single elon company is a high concept scifi rigamarole. a reusable rocket is ostensibly the kind of toy that makes the minds of thousands of engineers and scientists sing in harmony, and yet. they don't go overboard!
this is the magic of the elon companies: engineers armed with the resources to rearrange civilizations are staying sane and building only what matters to the goal. they strike the perfect balance of worshipping the one toy that needs to be built without falling into toy mindset
engineers in their natural unconstrained state begin unconscious work to immanentize technological horrors. like bees in a hive. while the uninitiated question their utility, PMs exist as spellbinders to draw ritualistic incantations on google docs that keep the demons at bay https://x.com/tszzl/status/1560683019152723974
@pajeetbateman your Asian gf just left you. If you can’t choose the best menu item across infinite options using guild navigator level intuition you’re basically going to be an incel
in the postscarcity world the role of men is to use preternatural guild navigator intuition to pick the best menu item across the cosmos of menu items for you and your date. if you can’t display this evopsych fitness signal this you’re doomed to inceldom https://t.co/w3lduTxS0i
it’s not challenging to follow the roon account if you’re a techno optimist. special shout-out to my anarcho primitivist and or reactionary followers. you’re the real ones
consumerism is the 2nd greatest show on earth. its incredible to watch ppl explore the global reward surface of humanity’s creative consumption. they danced to despacito on 6 continents. Harry Potter sold 500 million copies. everyone is drinking tapioca infused milktea
each of these global victors communicates a truth about the human animal with an objective precision behind them that no Nabokov novel or Shakespeare play can match
*chuckles* nick land cannot simply “die” in any way that matters. he stood on the huawei factory assembly line and laughed as a robotic arm picked him and made him one with the machine
when an elephant crosses the road a typical self driving vision net may not recognize the object and try to run into it. so tesla made NNs that simply predict whether the point in space is filled or not. now it’ll dodge the elephant https://x.com/aelluswamy/status/1561151323969429505
the human species is typified by postscarcity. after solving for pure survival concerns evolution started making our secondary sex characteristics more and more exaggerated because we can afford it
at the end of history after all material problems are solved the only scarcity left will be that everyone still wants a better mate. far fewer males may reproduce since income is not as important / distributed extremely unevenly. but we seem basically prepared for it
watching the rise and fall of various public intellectuals and twitter accounts should warn people off of “content creation” as a career. success is short lived, your alpha gets dissipated away quickly, and it’s more or less zero sum
sort of true but not 100%
total amount of content consumption hours is rising globally
due to more leisure time, better content libraries, and high quality feed algorithms https://x.com/RyanRadia/status/1561367378969116672
@Teleonomic right and the peacocks tail can’t be explained by pure natural selection — which means it survives often enough to have concerns outside of survival. is that logic wrong?
if UA goes bust another airline buys all their plane leases and ramps up their operation. they’re not worth much because they’re undifferentiated and have accumulated little capital https://x.com/StockJabber/status/1561409261128650752
@ReallyRadley@dasanil how old are you radley? If you’re not 70+ and a member of the United States senate you will be protected by my covid defense program
i didn’t think id enjoy seeing every “ML is fake and just logistic regression” dumbass getting their just desserts so much. you were wrong about the only thing that matters this decade. the rest of ur takes are null and void
@revhowardarson buddy i don't know if you interact with hospitals a lot but they're known for snail mailing CDs of medical imagery around due to the idiotic state of health data regulation and risk aversion of hospitals. i can confidently tell you these human failings and not machine failings
doctors as a class of people habitually prevent progress in what may be the only industry that matters in the long run via classic rent seeking. if you develop a better way to do something but the doctors feel it doesn’t make them the main character it’s over
@duntsHat yes but it's especially grating since my mental model of doctors was always like "flesh engineers" which implies that they should be fairly innovative, STEM brained first principles thinkers, etc. but no it's more like they're technicians that have memorized an object model graph
@0xveggies no, they're one of the highest value add nodes in the chain. they have more bargaining power than any of the above. hospital execs have fought hard to get nurse practitioners more responsibilities for example
@itsvarora@0xveggies yeah they're generally like 20 iq points dumber than doctors but it doesn't matter. most of what a doctor does isn't interesting work and the NP can do it just fine. it's a blackpill they don't want to swallow
whenever you find a doctor that’s in the top of the field at what they do and they have to regretfully make you mail a CD between different medical systems they’ll admit that bad data regulation is killing thousands whereas the mid ones will defend it vehemently
most of the arguments that people levy against effective altruism are copes that their own thing sucks. for example they say EA is bad bc it’s uninspiring and it’s not how humans think about charity. and yet there’s around $50 billion worth of assets committed to EA causes
the vast majority of criticism of EA is just like “i don’t want to donate to anything period. the charity most pertinent to my peer group seems to be givewell/AMF/etc. therefore I will try to lower their status”.
others will say well actually bed netting is indefinite optimism and EA is uninspired. well ok but they have long time horizon experimental funds to create moonshots! my friend received a significant check to pursue the creation of artificial wombs
https://funds.effectivealtruism.org/apply-for-funding
anyway i have a few skills but my most important one is sensing the zeitgeist of cringe. All of twitter is a cringe potential field and enough mid intellectuals have accumulated in the anti EA bandwagon that the cringe has become strong
the last and best argument against EA is that christian morality is wrong and the strong should not support the weak but you gotta bite that bullet for me
@max_arbitrage@drsxr no they’re not. they’re among the highest value professionals in the world. they have crazy amounts of bargaining power once they’re full fledged doctors and it’s part of their grift to pretend otherwise
@SkepticalAlpaca plus reflecting generally on the kind of procedure driven uncreative people I tend to run into as clinicians. you’re likely quite different as a researcher
when you’re a leader in a software company, you get a band of autists that barely listen to you and take 4 months per year of mental health leave. when you’re a leader in something like construction you get an army of strong guys who call you boss and might beat up your enemies
incredible that tea has gone from the delicacy that built and toppled empires, inspired revolutions, to something that even subsistence peasants can enjoy for 5 rupees
@deepfates for ex. nike will send facebook a table of emails and items they have in their nike shopping cart. then facebook will inner join those emails with facebook user identities and serve them the shoe that was already in their cart. there are very few ways to get higher CTR than this
@deepfates@eshear agreed, i'm just saying all else equal, if you know a customer already wants to buy something you're going to show them that. if fb isn't showing you any of that it means they don't have any data on it
@eurydicelives a universe where I get to experience is more beautiful than one without (by definition, I would not experience beauty if I didn’t exist. Therefore my existence is beautiful)
@LandsharkRides not even a little, viserys is punished for being stupid and unsubtle. every character in the series is necessarily ambitious and arrogant
most people cannot process regret
they’ll explain why one of their life decisions was clearly bad and suboptimal and be like oh but it’s ok i learned a lot
i mean it’s probably good that most people have such strong defense mechanisms that protect them from mental damage but it appears like embarrassing cope from the outside. especially when there are measurable outcomes they’re missing
my phrasing was bad so elaborating. it’s obviously good to learn from your mistakes. it’s more when people say “i would change nothing, since i LEARNED” im like oh you’re just low agency and haven’t actually processed counterfactual regret
@nickcammarata this doesn’t seem coherent to me. according to you we shouldn’t worry because we’re living all those other lives anyway but it’s not worth it for you to risk the one you’re living now
how does anyone in this country think that labor markets are inundated with cheap foreign labor. like have you ever tried to get a big couch moved from one house to the next. do you know how much it costs
walking around sf with vitalik is great because he’s an actual celebrity here. every 3 minutes people’s jaws drop, they stop and stare, ask for photos. and he handles it like a expert
the problem with the way SBF approaches ea stuff is that he lights whole amazon rainforests worth of political capital on fire. this donating to a party thing is not and will never be "effective altruism"
i had mostly thought that whether an AI is conscious or not is outside the realm of science bc it’s an untestable hypothesis but @ilyasut convinced me otherwise in like 5 minutes
train an advanced LLM on a dataset without any description of conscious experience and see how the convo goes. does the machine’s description of its own experience match yours?
yes there are plenty of ways a machine could be conscious and fail this test. but at least there’s a possibility of a positive result. That puts the whole question in a new epistemic category!
@c8h11no2_njoyr does a bird have to understand the mechanism of flight before it can fly? do I have to understand the mechanism of flight before I identify that a bird is flying?
the commoditization of doctors under bugman apps to render them into a similar social class as uber drivers is the greatest technological advancement of the last two years
inshallah with enough versions of hims, roman, done, circle, etc etc we will finally unemploy all the mid doctors and only the actual value add ones will be left
young men going "monkmode" in order to work or grind harder is usually a cope. these guys end up not doing much of anything except watching tv and playing video games to soothe the mental pain
unless you are literally newton you should probably be minimizing pain in other aspects of your life so you can apply more of it at work. get a gf, spend money, have fun
@VitalikButerin in tech, among my peer group i have found that many come from immigrant cultures and spend far below their means out of fear, like avoiding basic utility math
with the right prompt engineering language models become pretty good at dealing with ambiguity and stating when the document source doesn't have a clear answer https://x.com/gregeganSF/status/1565203736490053632
thiel thought that the machine learning craze was just mania but some manias are real. strong AI is already here. it’s replacing humans in jobs that previously seemed like well defensible turf of mammalian intelligence
@atroyn i maybe think this is irrelevant. to me GI means few shot inference time learning on a wide variety of cognitive tasks unseen during training. do those tasks have to include physical manipulation? i mean maybe, there are token sequence transformers that do that 1/
@atroyn but more importantly not every generally intelligent creature is capable of reasoning in all domains. good luck getting a human to grok bat level echolocation and audiospatial reasoning
@besttrousers don’t worry your replies are intelligent and on point, i largely agree with them. i word these threads aggressively as bait because I enjoy fighting
of all the futurists and silicon valley technophilosophers, only kurzweil understood the teleological destiny of packing more transistors onto a chip. AI capabilities are a byproduct of leveraging massive amounts of computation using general scalable methods
specific challenges like language translation fall at various levels of computation. following moore's law and doing schizo vibe readings, he guessed correctly that machine translation and art generating AI would be more or less commonplace by early 2020s (correct!)
examining the 2019 predictions related to AI
- creative AI capable of making complex art and music
art is absolutely being made, music i'm not so convinced
- autonomous vehicles dominate our roads
living in san francisco this appears true but even L2 autonomy is rare elsewhere
- humans begin to develop deep relationships with AI
this seems fake on the surface level but clearly true on the relationship between you and your timeline algorithm. moreover there's the odd news story about google engineers thinking their chatbot is alive or whatever
- language translation machines are ubiquitous
this is absolutely true, when you chat with your Uber drive over the app it does real time translation. real time translation of writing is commonplace. a step change in capabilities makes translating between major languages trivial
@besttrousers@LittleKeegs0@LooselyMonke true but clearly some guys whose value prop was their extreme skill at mechanical production are now unemployed or comparatively disadvantaged
@besttrousers@LittleKeegs0@LooselyMonke i don't keep up to date with econ literature but i've read very little theory on what happens in "disequilibrium" when structural unemployment peaks
schmidhuber is interesting because he enumerated the space of simple deep learning ideas that didn't actually work in the 90s. but if the idea generation component is the easy part then there's no alpha
@ded_ruckus@TaylorLorenz you have a very bad mental model of retroactive morality if you think this
i mean people practically see feeding your kids margarine as barbaric
@Tjdriii dating apps are deeply bugman and inherently cursed. 50 app dates means essentially nothing. you’d have better luck with just a handful of people in your community or that your friends set up for you or whatever
@Tjdriii you just can’t be like “i am a special and strange person, with a niche brain type, and this lowest common denominator attractive person on the app has a decent chance of being a good match for me” it’s not coherent
fb and google heavily downsample their recommender system data volumes due to compute and storage requirements. even if this is true they can start lighting more flash memory on fire https://x.com/davisblalock/status/1563455844670246912
the taiwanese and their semiconductors, like the dwarves in moria, dug too deep and too greedily with their ultraviolet picks. the balrog is inevitable now
the whining about the “sterile neolib harems” are grating & cope. like yes it’s going to be difficult when you’re a peasant to get yourself a woman who’s a minor noble in the kingdom of zuck or wherever
text is the universal interface
text is how we communicate the vision in our mind to a computer and the angel trapped inside reifies imagination into pixels
text has magical properties. it has the built in modularity, reflexivity, compositionality of the natural languages. it is the best latent space evolution ever came up with for inter creature communication
people who consider themselves roughly naturalist or empiricist should not be overly hopeful about finding a better way to communicate the intent of man to the machine
every day you can mind meld with the likes of plato and buddha because someone wrote down the contents of their philosophy. the lives of these people were so different than ours that they might as well be a different species. and yet,
the brain computer interface will probably come at some point but the requirements are expensive:
- you need to decode a different latent for every human, based on their neural activation space
- you need to delicately extract a million+ activations from inside the brain
if the velocity of your thought was bottlenecked by the speed of your text, you can test this: is your WPM higher when simply copying text than when you are doing creative writing? if so, then the keyboard was never the bottleneck
@nickcammarata my first instinct is to disagree here because inter AI communication requires them to understand each other's latent space. unless they're trained in tandem, it's O(N^2) for everyone to understand everyone else's embeddings
unless everyone agrees on the natural language standard
@nickcammarata i meant if there's N models that need to communicate then learning each others latent space is N^2, there's only two agents in your example
@micsolana when a new tech comes out there’ll be utopian and dystopian visions for what it can be
the marketing I’ve seen absolutely is not “we are destroying art and replacing it”
im just surprised you found the most negative formulation and are promoting it as the only thing
@micsolana the tech is real, it exists, so why not find and amplify the utopian angle or vision instead of contributing to the pessimists
zero to one “complementarity” of man and machine is still real
diffusion tech amplifies the ability of artists to make their vision real faster
jack dorsey: 45, zero kids, hasn’t worked in the last decade, no wife just rotates models, clear enemy of civilization
the zuck: 35, several kids, dutifully and painstakingly runs a trillion dollar empire, strict monogamist, constantly self improoving, clear friend of the people
right wing pseuds deciding between sticking to their normal values abt family, loyalty, work ethic, liberty vs “he looks kind of weird” will choose the latter most of the time
i'll carve out an exception if you constantly work in low resource embedded environments or have to do FBI hacking cyberpunk terminal jockie shit, which is like 1 in 200 programmers
@powerbottomdad1 almost everybody develops on a remote server and just has a vscode remote environment. + learning enough vim to delete or add a line here or there
@sigfig@powerbottomdad1 I’m confused how it’s hard to set up remote editors though? Like I do this regularly for side projects on the cloud without infra support
@JamesSharpsteen@ded_ruckus that is unfortunately true from what I’ve seen of science but it should not be how real scientists think. but i agree this is a rhetorically less strong position