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@rudeloux nightmares

i don't even care who wins i just love elections dont pretend this doesn't get the blood pumping

@RaccoonYeshua it's amazing the air is electric

@jachaseyoung never gonna happen his financial incentives would be to never accept the declining accuracy of public polling, because it basically kills his whole platform

@Randylad buddy i got CFB, porn, and election coverage open on 3 screens

i f*cking knew it

@jerrrrryyy_ very true you cannot pass off blame to the polls

@tscarrithers @washingtonpost lmaoo

it's you Nate https://x.com/washingtonpost/status/1324521800966045697

@ProfoundProfit universal voter ID system they manage it in countries a lot less developed than ours

@ProfoundProfit voter id would mean 1 person = 1 ballot with strict coupling you can recycle all IDs of dead people

@ProfoundProfit it incrementally adds more transparency i dont know if you can get to completely trustfree elections. probably requires some cryptographic shit

@ProfoundProfit i think we already do this aside from pt 1 and its obviously not ideal especially in pandemic times. they pair up one democrat and one republican to count votes in michigan precincts IIRC

feel like the decentralized process in which the media plays a crucial role in aggregating the individual precinct level results is highly american and probably good for transparency https://x.com/conorduffy_7/status/1324541192638521344

@conorduffy_7 but still slightly higher than trust in the government 😅

“Don’t kid yourself. The polls messed up—and that would be the case even if we’d forecasted Biden losing Florida and only barely winning the electoral college” https://x.com/jerrrrrrryyyyy/status/1324516341605306369

‘a statement such as “The polls messed up,” is not just a statement about the polls, it’s a statement about how the polls are interpreted. More realistic modeling of the polls can correct for biases and add uncertainty for the biases we can’t correct.’

@overtone_window @jdcmedlock

this guy taps you on the shoulder and says 'I am Time grown Old, Come to Devour the World' wyd? https://x.com/harveykrishna_/status/1324591680704663552

the only thing more embarrassing than being a big tech bugman is getting owned by them

@mattparlmer matt no more excessionpoasting

@RaccoonYeshua @PereGrimmer seems he got his polling bump early on and then fell into a long decay natural disaster is not the best one to rally around

@RaccoonYeshua @PereGrimmer he would’ve easily won without it

/pol/ has clearly been working around the clock for a month to pump out biden memes https://x.com/RafFaithfull/status/1324778227114659842

is this yet another CIA op? i cant even tell

@tabongkima lmao DNC checks cashed

@updogligma lmao same

always has been https://x.com/PaulSkallas/status/1324714192759304199

@ProfoundProfit @alth0u I miss standup like once a week. @alth0u is just a superior breed

@Randylad dude had no idea the kind of horrors he was bringing into this world

with great disappointment I must report he’s not actually Ye https://t.co/kRZwx0LpHV

@fuehrerking @thesravaka truth measure !

@updogligma iconic

"steelmanning" is a cognitohazard and should never be tried

@ProfoundProfit @nectarina12 lol this is literally anything else

Ian: “please be charitable to the Outgroup” 5000 QTs: “FUCK those guys” https://x.com/ianbremmer/status/1325135387707269121

@discourseloverr doesn’t mean that everyone is cut out for programming lack of blue collar jobs is a still unsolved problem

cancel everything the MAGA people were right https://x.com/sapinker/status/1325130877572063232

@swapp19902 lmfao

@nectarina12 he knew what was coming his way

@browserdotsys it’s so hard bc the dudes a journalist... everything pisses him off

interesting de escalation of twitter tagging here lol “This claim is disputed” https://x.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1325194709443080192

why don’t you just go ahead and apply that to every tweet

@andrej_haulis lol this is kind of nuts

in this country it’s the media + increasingly social media that are the epistemic decision makers on election results https://x.com/Andr3jH/status/1325243456843894788

dude wants to introduce prediction markets into play lmao. who decides the contract settlement? https://x.com/ESYudkowsky/status/1325146077033455617

@TetraspaceWest we have to trust the prediction market runners to decide this correctly — for the kind of trustless society we are moving to its difficult

@maxisawesome538 in other countries there’s usually a government board that’ll announce final results after counting

@maxisawesome538 i like our way better

@NLRG_ bimodal distribution

@Cullen_OK based bogle

the congresswoman into hit online media brand pipeline https://x.com/thedailybeast/status/1325285502841483264

linkedin, tumblr, reddit wings of the democratic party https://x.com/PopulismUpdates/status/1325251124425707520

:o https://x.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1325511603157159942

@suavelambi ya, the tech companies are purely reactive. they just take the oath of least resistance wrt elections, instead of being proactive and setting standards

@suavelambi path*

monarchy is alive and well inside the chaebols

i bet our nuclear arsenal works about as well as our pandemic response

this imperial mf will be your president in 2040

@luke_metro haha I mean the generalized chaebol, including eg the family run NYtimes

@AOCummies do it and uncover the lovecraftian shit your family is hiding

@wowholyfucking yeah Waystar is just an American chaebol

what ppl say: I don’t see race! their revealed preference: ancestry testing is a billion dollar industry

@ProfoundProfit this is also how I board lol last one on first one off

@Tyler_The_Wise same exact thing imo

@NemoBane honestly most of the time I download good memes and forget where I got them from lol Sorry!

@ProfoundProfit banger

@ProfoundProfit completely true, and they'll start admitting it once joe biden is inaugurated

we must honor the dead https://x.com/tszzl/status/1237600871380217857

@alt1na1 female trait

@AOCummies annie >>>

wtf lol

@verynormaIguy dammit i want to be a cool sex pest too

@gigafelon yeah i dunked on his dancing tweet like yesterday lmao didnt think hed have the time to be this petty

@selentelechia seems to have nuked everyone in our sphere

@nectarina12 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mlucIr8kg7k

@jachaseyoung so he just went and blocked half of twitter huh what a bad time

@NLRG_ @_vivalapanda can’t we just use a likelihood estimation

@morefourchar ancestry testing is a mainstay with rich liberals

@browserdotsys @FunkyDuffy the eye of sauron follows you everywhere

does anyone remember what it was like to get work done? not me

@dysmemic something like that

@eigenrobot @gigafelon incredible googling how to make a baby rn

@browserdotsys LMAO im guessing this is the deepnude stuff

@browserdotsys @spacefracking 👀

@NateTheSpy @browserdotsys looks like they took down the original one but there are a bunch of forks

@browserdotsys so many eric garland bangers lost in time, like tears in the rain

@browserdotsys https://x.com/ericgarland/status/873654790026387457?s=20

when she leaves u on read: https://x.com/ericgarland/status/873654790026387457

@eigenrobot does it involve weird consequences for my immortal soul

@eigenrobot idr but i think you go to a demon's Special Torture Zone til the end of time so i will be answering no

@AOCummies why even live if you can't reply to this?

publication chances increase with both "coolness of the idea" and "improvement in objective metrics" why does it seem like there's an inverse relationship between the two?

feel like a lot of brainpower in ML academia is spent making an idea or method sound novel after getting good results

ML in industry isn't immune to this lol -- "i tuned the hyperparameters" doesn't make for good marketing you have to pitch it using whatever buzzwords the higher ups are talking about lately. they pretend to be metrics driven but theres always more to it

biggest infohazard of 2020 https://x.com/tszzl/status/1296268370858385408

@eigenrobot 😈

@MiloJKing lmao same male trait

@RaccoonYeshua absurdly based list

@browserdotsys wincing rn

all my homies hate the object level

AOCummies https://x.com/jdcmedlock/status/1325929950667440128

if you haven’t either become president or abandoned politics by age 25 wtf r u doing

@RaccoonYeshua tbf the og Star Wars dialogue would sound cringe were it not for nostalgia

every dude ages 15-25 is in a group chat called "the degenerates"

This event takes place on the ancestral lands of the Smilodon, sadly driven to extinction by the "natives",

@eigenrobot might be fine https://x.com/declamare/status/1326065686762967040?s=20

@eigenrobot although we probably need to distribute several orders of magnitude more corona vaccines than the ebola ones

@TheClarksTale @eigenrobot maybe so, but theres also several orders of magnitude more resources available for production and distribution

@bronzebarbarian @_djpn @TheClarksTale @eigenrobot Anheuser Busch and its not close

@replicaofself @eigenrobot why does it have to be centralized? can't anyone with dry ice and a freezer hop in on the fun?

@bronzebarbarian @_djpn @TheClarksTale @eigenrobot theyre the same thing arent they

@bronzebarbarian @_djpn @TheClarksTale @eigenrobot its only Right that they get us out of this mess that theyve made!

@_djpn I hear aoc cummies But according to the man it’s AO cummies

@ellegist my first reaction was Old Testament rage at the unholy idiots this quiz really is something else

i love this country WASPy work addiction is at once grotesque and beautiful and admired the world over https://x.com/clairlemon/status/1325933497823895553

what’s the lindy redpill for this https://x.com/AlecStapp/status/1326218677826560006

@aniiyengar lmao based alcohol probably increases the reproduction rate of a population

@aniiyengar also the chart methodology is incredibly sus

@Hellachans @1RAOKADAY chart is obvious garbage, the methodology is silly

@The_Geraldoid lol yeah that’s probably the right concl

@halvorz yeah i think the better question is, given an ez virus that yields to known vaccine technologies, how do we get to vaccine launch in months instead of years

@AlecStapp ignore, just shitposting here

@halvorz What are the most rigid barriers for the phase III trials? For example, I would wager we could make improvements in the speed of recruiting trial participants

@AOCummies fuck him lol

@wannabegroncho @neolibureaucrat i think forbidding birth control probably has the much larger effect size these days but in the beforetimes

absolute hellworld

@alth0u @alth0u is way ahead of the curve https://x.com/selentelechia/status/1325901774985728000?s=20

@AnthonyMRoberto @Hellachans Chad Son

the wh*te women are at it again https://x.com/patrickc/status/1326243300249014272

seeing the inherent value in space exploration is a male trait

@ProfoundProfit the last cope of a ProfoundProfit with no rebuttal! sad!

@gbrl_dick @ProfoundProfit based

@gbrl_dick @ProfoundProfit yeah thats what i thought based

@donuts4hair lmao sorry i have to keep em flowing

@ProfoundProfit @gbrl_dick hell nah these replies were already the slums of twitter

@ComradeSnake @ProfoundProfit "read infinite jest" is the debate ender i saw a 5 minute youtube summary of the book so i know this to be true

its time. to read infinite jest https://t.co/kqitq36sEW

so whats the over/under that pfizer delayed the results til after the election

@T_Walt615 agreed

all modern debates are ended by whoever says "lol cope" in the most innovative and destructive way possible

@aquariusacquah i remember at the start some medium article said we'd have a system where we'd go on and off lockdowns when the ICU beds reached a certain % of capacity and i was like lol these tech autists have no clue what theyre talking about

how to speed up vaccine development? i mean hats off to pfizer but ~1 year is still too long

setting aside a pool of testing machines for vaccine trials only is probably one low hanging fruit

@NemoBane lol nah i meant ~1 yr from sequencing of the virus genome

the other more or less "obvious" one i mean go test it outside of america if we're too squeamish https://x.com/T_Walt615/status/1326355400166346753?s=20

@maxdunat how does this help

wrong angle as halvorz pointed out earlier we got to it in a year due to confluence of biology and available technology other viruses may not have yielded in any time span regardless of "institutions" https://x.com/ne0liberal/status/1326116130499547137?s=20

@alexmschatz ok sure but it's objectively easier to recruit and monitor 100 people for an HCT rather than the ~50,000 required for the phase III trial

@_vivalapanda they have no qualms with that part but likely dont have the rest of the biopharma apparatus

@neolibureaucrat yours are too low!

not to detract from the success of the pfizer vaccine -- it's amazing that it works with 90% efficacy and after record breaking dev time -- even 60% would've been a success the market moves are generally warranted

RIP to Pfizer but i'm different https://x.com/The_Geraldoid/status/1326359202156048384?s=20

@alexmschatz throughput and latency are inversely related little's law

@alexmschatz even with the current vaccine candidate, safety is not guaranteed. it will require 12 month, 24 month checkups etc so far the patients go through a vaccine 1, vaccine 2, and a checkup a month later for a total of about 50 days lag time but the vaccine trial took 100+ days

@wannabegroncho @NateSilver538 lmao

this guy is just sitting there raging and seething and coping that the prediction markets btfo'd him https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/1326348588323131393

"literally free money" but proceeds not to pour his life savings into it https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/1326349493630070786?s=20

fwiw betfair is pricing this possibility at <5%

nate is clearly selectively looking at predictit, which favors long odds due to fee structure and pretending he found something interesting

@gbrl_dick Economists Hate Him

@tim_ber_wind yup write to the SEC until they make it happen

Bay Area Drewligan Meetup

@harveykrishna_ no clue i'm just stringing words together

@normalhandsome @harveykrishna_ ok in 2 weeks

@browserdotsys @moultano otoh also makes me lol seeing NIPS submissions grow exponentially but the acceptance rate stays at exactly 21% very arbitrary stuff

elon musk is the only saving grace of the reddit ideology. they would have literally nothing to show without him posting rick and morty 420 cringe every now and then

@billpshort substack is def missing ranking and discovery

@_vivalapanda that quiz is a cognitohazard for autists

@_AlastairX_ DL is not that great or interesting imo reads like a technical manual i second Norvig though also a sucker for Griffiths “Nature abhors a change in flux”

@AOCummies the whole ensemble with the twitter tag is just hilarious

why tf do we only have one heart https://x.com/sorceressofmath/status/1326643887788732416

rn im blackpilled on both theory and empiricism. send spiritual PhilSci help

@_vivalapanda fist fighting god is all about Theory

😔 🤦‍♀️ https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/1328425661229395968

@eigenrobot where are the modern talleyrands and what are they up to

@ProfoundProfit @eigenrobot 😠

so here's the bit: i weaponize math and science to arrive at all the same conclusions as my ancestors

the TL ranking algo fucks you if you deacc for a week lol i imagine it relies heavily on profile_views_7day

@eoghan @BagholderQuotes

can't believe there's a whole journal that's just called Science. seems a bit on the nose

QT'ing my enemies with a simple "cope nerd. read infinite jest" and then logging off

@R1Jack @eigenrobot @liminal_warmth its only fair

😏😏😏😏😏 https://x.com/squawksquare/status/1328462102298767367

@RlPA0Cummies i put in another 10Gs last week. based

@ChainlinkStake bullish on the panopticon

@eigenrobot oh yeah?

@eigenrobot Anti Theist architecture

Maggie Thatcher vs the British royals upjumped bourgeoisie vs landed aristocracy

@averykimball demonstrably untrue decreased/mitigated risk = new transactions become viable

tfw you will never reach the playful self satisfaction of the royals

Fleets are good akshually

@HeinleinFan95 making me feel some type of way

anyone else still habitually make up a fake birthday on website dropdowns despite actually being older than 18

ok tbh I didn’t even think of the data privacy angle lmao. I just don’t remember that I’m not underage anymore

fleet is an instant success of a feature but nobody wants to admit it

@PereGrimmer yeah it's mobile only it seems

@ProfoundProfit every few years you go and cull all the low performing features, problem solved

@ProfoundProfit big tiddy goth gf but in presidential terms

@ProfoundProfit @Everyone darpa is interestingly a very small and idiosyncratic institution (<$4b/year) that refuses repeated attempts to increase its funding bc it knows it cannot scale

@ProfoundProfit @Everyone the internet is a series of innovations made by gov agencies, academics, and vast amounts of big business, exactly what's needed for pharma as well its also not that controversial to say that the productive output of government research has fell off a cliff since the 60's

@ProfoundProfit oh rly

of all sad words of tongue or pen the saddest are these

“roon was right again”

@ProfoundProfit tfw no gf

@The_Geraldoid nothing good i assure you

no. fuck that guy tho https://x.com/antinouns/status/1328551482598313985

@NicholasElodeon that’s right

@billpshort if you do this repeatedly, the models will start escalating your claims to higher scrutiny

@gigafelon correct

everyone has spacing guild syndrome addicted to subpar prophecy https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/1329173570136797186

@AOCummies goddammit

@ProfoundProfit how u gonna keep around some mf named Himmler

ok here’s the bit. ill hate every last thing about my industry, regularly downplay its genuine scientific achievements, but still work in it bc hey haha it’s good tweet material

@vontallboy not how it works in my experience

i remember staying up all night as a freshman synced to Korea time to watch Lee Sedol v AlphaGo. I consider it a formative experience

@vontallboy hyper parameter tuning is for the undergrads 😎

@alth0u this is the move almost as good as teaching Indian kids MCAT

@eigenrobot gotta defend the Israeli bros

@eigenrobot Ya agreed, it’s just the best steelman I can think of israelis gotta help us at this point

just make an ai smart enough to solve the alignment problem. there, you can disband miri now

not sure why people are surprised by this bc its exactly how IG and snapchat stories work lol great way to start a convo https://x.com/m_ashcroft/status/1329564145218367489

@antirobust lmfao

this should be illegal

@AOCummies @jdcmedlock lmao whose is it

@NeoLibBen swe @ FB&Goog can make this much out of college but you’ll find that it’s exactly as tedious as accounting

@jungseneca @NeoLibBen no clue honestly maybe smaller companies have lower executive load (eg coordination and planning overhead) also most of my working life has been during covid so i may be overselling the tedium

@alth0u despite all my rage the high status of doctors is lindy and their public image will long outlast me

@LeefVan @NeoLibBen this is total comp figure including stocks and bonuses and most of them pay the same everywhere in the US senior eng (~5 years experience) can make 200 base

@LeefVan @NeoLibBen living in Seattle or Austin works out great bc you can get the same big tech salaries at low cost of living

this is lindy and possibly the basis of agrarian civilization https://t.co/Ga6j0iJC6c

imagine trying to systematize ur beliefs. Lmao couldn’t be me

Tesla is an AI company. the rest is irrelevant

@AOCummies roon is dead. long live turmeric monster!

uber will be dead in a few short years, not due to fundamentals, due because of competition from Tesla Autonomous Network https://x.com/TurnerNovak/status/1329798765142749192

this twete is designed to enrage the most possible people

@NateTheSpy yeah I think they’re ahead by a country mile

@alth0u ooh I didn’t think about this maybe the boutique human driver niche will remain if they do their branding well enough look at the proles being driven around by robots

@alth0u I wonder if we can add this to the culture war Only blue tribe idiots would take a driverless car!

@harveykrishna_ @updogligma preemptive cope

some personal news: I am joining Vox

@NateTheSpy waymo is taking a very conservative approach technologically, reliant on deep mapping and LIDAR, and I think they’re getting muscled out by Tesla’s sheer data volume

@NateTheSpy I mean I’m not sure what exact statistic but it’s clearly not the one to look at. Think of all the Californians owning Teslas and turning on autopilot. It’s gotta be at the minimum 10s of millions of miles in 2019 alone

@NateTheSpy imo this has nothing to do with the marketing. Tesla has been a luxury vehicle until recently. Bought by well to do urban yuppies. they’re well aware that the car can’t drive itself; it’s just a natural inclination to stop paying attention when the AI system is performing so well

if you want the EU to be taken seriously at all move Macron to Rome rn so he can start the real “Jupiterian Presidency”

@antoniogm @jeffbercovici @VinodSreeharsha @micsolana @shearleg lmao completely owned

when you have to retain a large following of Marvel polytheists with robinhood accounts

bro please i swear im autistic please see im averting eye contact pls bro https://x.com/eigenrobot/status/1329856395370323969

nooo im not neurotypical don’t cancel my Thiel fellowship pls

resume of everyone who worked on fleets: “Built and scaled zero to one groundbreaking social features”

step 1: find the threshold immigration capacity of the US for high skill immigrants -- more than this and the people will revolt step 2: auction exactly this amount of H1Bs to the highest bidders https://x.com/NiskanenCenter/status/1329507210288910338

@ESYudkowsky lol do you think traditional advertising gave you more agency

@AOCummies love anhedonia

@AOCummies let’s dopamine fast this weekend

big fan of libs instinctively buying into physiognomy https://x.com/AngryBlackLady/status/1329979824815759362

the Uber strategy just start providing useful services and sufficient consumer buyin handicaps any potential litigation from Uncle Sam https://x.com/shlevy/status/1329886264745660425

@averykimball Chesterton’s fence delivers a directional morsel of wisdom: the average mutation is net negative

@averykimball this is an important prior to have when proposing grand transformations

I’m wasted who up

@BlackLabOlive hell yeah based RC enthusiast

this is also the reason for the Replication Crisis https://t.co/jQDa83LPDa

@rickyflows pest control 👀

@_vivalapanda yes but it’s more about encouraging competent governance via objective metrics (eg “beating the Soviets”) birth rates are a secular global trend due to cheap high tech birth control, women’s changed role in society etc

how am i getting full bars inside Yosemite. lame

@WilliamGrobman can’t escape it

why did they build this life size replica of my mac background ... seems like a waste ...

@borebrush there are more people in the park than in sf I swear

absolute best time to have a horrifying but localized facial abnormality

@eigenrobot @edavidds hahaha what is happening

@eigenrobot i think we’re silently doing this with Anduril and virtual border walls and whatnot not sure what the state of this is

@ProfoundProfit called it

still thinking about how Yuval Harari basically said he meditates in isolation for 100 days a year so he could come up with better takes for the other part

sapiens is lowkey not that bad. I will be deleting this before tech twitter kills me

we’ve reached the counter counter signaling stage

@harveykrishna_ beloved in like 2015-2016, hated after that until now. It will be making a comeback after my revolution

@harveykrishna_ @mattgoldenberg Guns Germs and Steel is definitely better

@billpshort It’s definitely not a 5/5 haha I probably rated it a while back

@billpshort first ~200 pages concern the prehistory of man and the agricultural revolution, i’d say 4.5-5. really well done stuff, gripping narrative rest is like 3.5, it’s mostly just Harari’s crack theories about history, some obvious, some radical and refreshing, some super wrong

@RaccoonYeshua it was a super popular book in like 2015 after it went on Bill gates list. Got some heavyweight recommendations from zuck, Obama etc Basically purports itself as a universal history of mankind. It’s ideas became outdated almost as soon as it hit the shelves —

@RaccoonYeshua But imo the undertaking was interesting and valuable. Probably overrated revenue wise but gets too much negative heat as well

@RaccoonYeshua haha yeah it assumes the starting point as the somewhat dead ideology of the obama clinton neoliberalism

@bronzebarbarian its complete nonsense

@Teleonomic Homo Deus is unreadable

@roddur_dasgupta @billpshort i mean a lot of it is sort of neo-buddhist philosophizing re the human mind and its motivations sort of like what fukuyama attempts to do with End of History but not as skilled

@harshita_kk lol no worries. imo it’s good but nothing game changing

@katiewav 100%

@apoorvasriniva @RaccoonYeshua yeah, i appreciate the ambition of Big History / Hegelian Universal History and I don’t think “it lacks nuance” is a good enough criticism. better one would be that it’s not daring enough or the broad strokes are wrong

the hysteria was again unwarranted

@bayes_baes was pretty confident of this outcome the whole way through lol

@bayes_baes he was always going to make a shit ton of noise but then leave quietly. it’s exactly his style — it’s about the distinction between media artifice and reality

@bayes_baes ah yeah if he had a real but narrow path to victory, it would be a different story. but same would be true of any president the difference with this one is that he’ll keep tweeting about voter fraud even while he’s stepping out of office

@oldvillagesage @bayes_baes probably true

@oldvillagesage @bayes_baes specifically the hysteria about coups, militias, fascist takeovers was unjustified. can’t say anything about long term damage to norms and the information ecosystem.

@NicholasElodeon Russian

@trevorjtweets @jrobertsesquire i am disputing the idea that there was a ever even a serious attempt to pull off an information warfare based coup this is all just postmodern — trump cannot admit defeat or it ruins his brand

@trevorjtweets @jrobertsesquire i mean it’s basically a joke of an attempt if you don’t even have Fox News on your side

yeah haha I’m sure psychotherapy is only useless in Kenya haha https://x.com/nberpubs/status/1330949239443218434

Manufacturing Dissent

@alth0u wonder why they don't move to the general space of logic puzzles, which would be way harder to memorize even a small % of

@alth0u @gigafelon on the high end this does not seem like a plus when you pay 300k for an engineer you probably want them to demonstrate high independence and direction

@ProfoundProfit I too have been partaking in No Piss November

@halvorz tesla is an AI company and the rest are not — the value of a car that turns into a robotaxi is several times higher than COGS and will make their margins stratospheric, and not in the same league as the other auto makers. i think they are undervalued as yet

@halvorz https://ark-invest.com/analyst-research/tesla-price-target/

@JustJoshinYou13 @halvorz Cruise is a literal joke — my dad works closely with them in GM

@JustJoshinYou13 @halvorz it was basically a bundle of vaporware they bought at a ridiculous valuation at the peak of the AV startup bubble to convince investors they weren’t missing the future — clearly it didn’t work

@forbca @halvorz oh i am absolutely competing with them by owning a lot of $TSLA lol more and more all the time

@idontwa86202030 @JustJoshinYou13 @halvorz Waymo is sort of theoretical and Tesla has consumer grade FSD cars on the road right now https://youtu.be/jmZyKNCIzp4

@idontwa86202030 @JustJoshinYou13 @halvorz imo waymo has failed in a surprising myriad of ways — google is yet again proving its inability to see new R&D ventures to completion. They are taking a conservative approach with deep mapping and LIDAR that I think have clearly been proven mistakes at this point

@halvorz haha explain why this is just the state of the science and engineering as i see it

@CkLorentzen @halvorz probably. there may be a significant uphill legal battle against entrenched interests. I don’t know how to value those but I’m taking a guess that it won’t be that bad if they’ve proven a solid track record / demonstrably good metrics

@halvorz 2021 is ridiculous — I don’t agree with the exact year, just the directikn of the argument that they’re 5+ years ahead of competitors

@idontwa86202030 perhaps but the mapping introduces a fundamental bandwidth / connectivity gap. can’t drive anywhere without a stable connection, without a serious degree of previous mapping. I agree the sensor suite is the bigger issue

@idontwa86202030 Especially since software can be shown to reach LIDAR levels of depth perception with just binocular Siamese neural nets

@CkLorentzen @halvorz actually im expecting the public to be extremely laissez faire about it. Like Uber launching in a new city and the public consumers becoming its greatest defenders against the taxi interests and their cronies in government

@CkLorentzen @halvorz never underestimate the degree to which people just want a cheap ride but Tesla has been saying for a while that it needs to prove 10x than humans better before launching anyway

@CkLorentzen @halvorz FSD beta, autopilot fill the gap. The metric here is miles driven safely without driver intervention

@idontwa86202030 local just wouldn’t scale — these are extremely rich maps. So I assume server side with generous local caching

@sgodofsk @halvorz @petergodofsky @Rationalbot I can’t see half the comments in this chain but li cell batteries are way overhyped for energy storage if Tesla is primarily an energy company then they’re fucked — it would never justify a valuation this high

@forbca @CkLorentzen @halvorz he’s awesome

@RaccoonYeshua @halvorz @sgodofsk @petergodofsky @Rationalbot i think Elon knows it very well — all the roadmaps explicitly rely on robotaxi launching but “we will have a solid 10 years to extract monopoly rents on robotic ride hailing” is not as good a marketing pitch as saving the world through renewable energy etc

@Cullen_OK lol it seems her mothers family is from Manargudi though

@jeff82874662 @ProfoundProfit hes right

$2.50/ride mile * 50% electric robotaxi margin * 100,000 cab miles per year (around avg for new york taxis) = $125k / year discount at 5% over 10 years the NPV of a Tesla model 3 with robotaxi abilities is around $1m at a cost of production of $20k after r&d -- 50x unit margin

100,000 miles is for human driver and seems low since the robot never needs to sleep. 50% margin is also probably low you won't buy $1m car to drive around in and then send to the taxi fleet for in the spare time tesla will sell them like capital assets to holding companies

@ne0agent1c yeah $2.50/mile price point is not maintainable once a certain scale is reached

@Hellachans not at the beginning anyways. they are simply too valuable for the average consumer to own for personal use. maybe after the margins slim quite a bit

@Hellachans yeah

@jeff82874662 @Hellachans how many cars will it take to satisfy the entire taxicab demand for the first world? and keep in mind that this demand expands as price per mile goes down but yeah at some point an equilibrium is reached and buying for personal use becomes viable again

@idontwa86202030 https://electrek.co/2018/05/31/tesla-model-3-teardow-material-production-cost/ $28k @ 10k cars / week -- but again, the NPV of a robotaxi is so massive even the ballpark is fine

@JeremyDanielFox edge conditions are exactly why Tesla's data volume driven approach is most likely to work. the questions are of efficiency and not if the DL approach will work at all. which is why i'm pretty confident they'll get there at some point soon

@alth0u @wesyang lmao

@forbca @sgodofsk @halvorz @petergodofsky @Rationalbot energy is critical -- true energy is wildly profitable? less of a guarantee

@ne0agent1c true good that there are alternatives, but what about when Amazon self publishing takes you off the kindle store?

@BrickOverton @wonk_wannabe_ based

@halvorz @simoj_ when did they start the production ramp?

biologists just take every opportunity to remind you they’re shipping around genomics data in Microsoft Word https://x.com/calebwatney/status/1331680165504671744

@elidourado @calebwatney what about deployment / production? shortening the trial length may not make any different if the parallel production ramp takes equally long

@MelisaT0urtUnal black comedy

pretty skeptical of these claims most IoT devices worth their weight in shit will fulfill their basic function with no connectivity https://t.co/zMYklM7SRk

the ny subway was NOT offline lol. Just the MTA website

the Roombas are still working! they just get slightly dumber and require hard boundaries to know where to vaccum to replace the software boundaries

@RohanXKapur roombas are pretty dope lol

How did they manage to break us-east-1 DURING thanksgiving code freeze that’s wild

@halvorz @jeff82874662 @SkepticalAlpaca assuming you could shorten the trials with HCT — is production still the bottleneck? are there any apparent ways we can reduce the time to produce a million doses of a novel mRNA therapy? How standardized is the production from one mRNA therapy to another?

@halvorz @jeff82874662 @SkepticalAlpaca sorry for all the Qs lol if you have some reading on this would appreciate

@gbrl_dick not sure if its a misunderstanding so much as its a cope starting another company that makes life for urban yuppies 0.5% easier is just more likely to make it to the end lol

@halvorz @jeff82874662 @SkepticalAlpaca oh wow i knew Moderna was new but not this new -- i had assumed they had a few successful drugs with this approach already also cackling at stock ticker $MRNA

@gbrl_dick yeah, a lot of people that were previously in startup world are quitting and coming to FAANG from what i can tell my manager quit his company and came to work at FAANG like six months ago, dejectedly telling everyone that startups suck now

@gbrl_dick there isn't much energy in the ecosystem since there aren't many new technologies optimistically it's a short lull before the storm of whichever new platform comes next after mobile

there are as many people claiming that the internet is creating division and factionalism as there are claiming that it's creating a homogenizing monoculture what means

@powerbottomdad1 i always lol when people say they want "stripe like documentation" internally

@eigenrobot noooo leave me with my comfortable cul de sacs

@jachaseyoung very odd claim haha i doubt Ted Chiang is selling THAT much product to the tiny audience of would-be short story writers

severe shortages of Vision everywhere

@_vivalapanda on the other hand interest rates are record lows which suggests long term thinking at the ecological level

@browserdotsys yeah for some reason saw lots of people online claiming the subway itself was nonfunctional lol there's no way any of the controls software is internet connected

@samgdf yes this is just as much a self reflection haha

@jachaseyoung @browserdotsys we should rig all the SCP containment protocols to rely on the uptime of us-east-1

@PereGrimmer it’s the central conceit of liberalism https://x.com/0x49fa98/status/1072671723407978496

@AlecStapp how’s that looking though lol SF management is very well paid for a city widely accepted as one of the worst run

@calebwatney @elidourado true

@calebwatney @elidourado ive been saying this thank god actual policy people are on this

@0K_ultra @eigenrobot it’s not really the ads we worry about it’s the feed that sells them

another tell for this is that the people who spend the most time thinking about politics are strangely enough often undecided voters. the more they analyze the more they're buried under the sheer complexity

why democracy? the decision heuristics people use to democratically choose leaders are no better than random; neither the elites nor the public have any insight into the complex systems they wish to govern

pair this with the increased inclination to vote against incumbents when economic conditions are bad, and you have a random system that kicks out ruling parties stochastically, weighting toward leaders who oversee bad times and that's pretty much it

simple -> democracy randomly cycles out the tired elites with a new order every X years i suspect this accounts for most of the efficacy of the democratic algorithm. RNG, a source of noise. rapid flux in leadership decreases the probability of entrenched corruption

there need not be any relation between the tribal aesthetics of a would-be leader and their ability. policy discussions elude everyone, including the wonks. at best, a policy proposal is an educated guess. at worst, specious nonsense. so why democracy? why does it work better?

@rickyflows @VectorOfBasis Lenses tax to incentivize good vision

@VectorOfBasis :)

@daninutero @jeff82874662 😈

@neolibureaucrat @tartanfucker hahaha I don’t know if anyone is “good at economic commentary” it’s all just sophistry on here

@daninutero that’s why it’s the Reddit Chemical ™

wtf i love VCs now https://t.co/VUIpEsTKAO

@gaitanalyst Very mediocre imo reddit trash space opera

@valueless_user @gaitanalyst yeah it’s plenty of fun for sure

is this post westphalianism https://x.com/AOC/status/1332078545607200768

@aquariusacquah Discord Diplomacy

@jonshea @gaitanalyst dont know Babylon 5?

@jonshea @gaitanalyst yeah I’ve never actually seen it I kind of doubt there’s any good space opera tv that I’ve missed

@wesyang we can measure the impact with click through digital ads

which financial instruments let you bet on the real estate of a specific city or metro area?

@TheMcGirkEffect soon

@jeff82874662 thx Jeff I’m glad I have a top finance guy here to not give me any answers 😠

normalize turning on the shower to check water pressure when touring a new apt

car:test drive::new place:test shower

being anti IoT is not contrarian at all. i will be purchasing smart trash cans and whatnot

@ChrisCroy lmao but that's the thing everyone seems to miss -> as long as there's always a hardware fallback, IoT is a pure net positive (aside from infosec concerns)

@ChrisCroy that may be a big asterisk for some people but i seem to just not care about data privacy at all after all i overshare on the internet to 2500 people with a real face avi

@browserdotsys lmao no but i imagine the firmware is written by offshore contractors for pennies

@browserdotsys but what's the WORST that could happen

@browserdotsys https://x.com/andrej_haulis/status/1332466078837039105?s=20

@jeff82874662 @powerbottomdad1 your reply falls in the first bucket jeff

@jeff82874662 @powerbottomdad1 i was joking lmao

@jeff82874662 @powerbottomdad1 if you spend long enough on here 99.9% will become comprehensible but at what cost?

corollary -> being prepared for the absurd is highly adaptive https://x.com/robkhenderson/status/1332460818336722947

@alth0u wym by bust it up?

@discourseloverr rip to weimar but im different

@alth0u paper analyzes the self play / simulation training argument vs overfitting argues that the absurdist/fabulist nature of dreams makes them poor training data for making real world predictions may play a different role in children tho

hmm this may also explain a bit of the "seeing a problem with fresh eyes" phenomenon

@eigenrobot @antoniogm seems to have calculated this too

@nectarina12 that dream was def prophetic

@eigenrobot Annuit Coeptis

low real interest rates imply a forward thinking / long term focus in the economy but it doesn't feel like it culturally?

@alth0u RTX 3090 based economy @browserdotsys is the central bank

ultimately there is a hard limit on how much RETVRN is possible due to fact that rival countries will beat your military technology

you could argue that google and facebook are bad for the culture, causing social degradation etc, but you'd also have to contend with the fact their output in computer vision and such will directly contribute to future military tech

@AndrewSullman 😢

@RohanXKapur haha this wasnt a subtweet dawg im just counter signaling all the IoT hate i saw after us-east-1 went down to be honest i dont own any IoT stuff and i even threw out my smart lightbulb -- more effort than it's worth

@orthonormalist maybe so, but in general a technology oriented society is prerequisite for military + economic dominance

@LoCtrl this would be based

@eigenrobot this also happened to andreessen lol https://theoutline.com/post/6708/marc-andreessen-twitter-faves-alt-right

@alth0u @sonyasupposedly @eigenrobot he definitely lurks but he got bullied into abstaining from actually liking or tweeting the man is basically shadowbanned sad!

@suavelambi @alth0u @sonyasupposedly @eigenrobot yeah he seems to have implied colonialism was good for India lmao i assume he was testing out a Hot Take but yeah didn’t play well in the media

@pookleblinky forget resource pooling. We could have game consoles running giant neural agents for in game AIs lol. no more shitty hard coded boss fights, no more boring procedurally generated worlds — each level radiantly handcrafted by an NN

@pookleblinky it’s true, but training bottlenecks on interlink bandwidth, especially for reinforcement learning. you’d get v tiny utilization as most time is spent waiting for data. there are probably federated learning algos that solve some of these problems but not confident

@pookleblinky as in most cases, you pay a heavy cost for decentralization in the form of efficiency/performance. This sort of distributed learning would be ideal for problems you literally cannot trust to governments or companies

now do Obama 😏 https://x.com/mattyglesias/status/1332703307870167043

plastic bags cost $.25 a pop in San Francisco lmao why does california hate the poors

@valueless_user they don’t have the normal ones anymore the hardy ones are 25c

@rchitectopteryx lol im not price sensitive enough to care and ill happily rip through a ton of plastic bags this only hurts the poor plastic bags end up safely in landfills anyway

@BrickOverton based

two numbers: A: the threshold immigration capacity that Americans are comfortable with — any more and they revolt B: the number of immigrants that the US actually needs to backfill flagging fertility rates and maintain positive pop growth If A < B we’re already fucked

@behavinbehavin not really about violent revolt more like political revolt -> electing a Commodus type

@KiIIAIICops as the prime age population : elder ratio skews towards elders, our already stressed entitlement system will fold

@KiIIAIICops not to mention that unceasing economic growth is the engine of our civilization and all of our financial assets etc depend on it

there is literally no other institution on earth that can psyop like Disney https://x.com/Ellie___Jellie/status/1332244532293877760

the cia only wishes they could do inception shit like this cc @gbrl_dick

@LTF_01 one of the quietest most boring suburbs in the world lol

@alth0u actual Carthaginian figs legislative play awesome

wait so you mean not everyone grows up spending 6+ hours on the internet per day in maplestory chat rooms since age 11 thereby fine tuning their brains for online communications only

@acczibit in the comics the plane incident literally causes 9/11 so yeah spot on

people shit on the gig economy a lot but hey you’ll never have this issue driving Uber https://x.com/RaxKingIsDead/status/1332701021798354944

@selentelechia wtf why did no one sell me a yoyo

@The_Geraldoid yeah i don’t really see it but I guess it vaguely looks like the meat is full of maggots / triggers disgust instinct

@R1Jack yeah agreed it will only ever be a short term fix

@mechanicalmonk1 PYMK is probably one of the most successful recommender engines on the planet shits magic

twitter is a prison and the timeline is my guard Read Foucault

@metametrician @mechanicalmonk1 there’s some spooky shit I’ve noticed though if you visit someone’s house for the first time it’ll correlate everyone under the same external IP address and recommend you to each other not mystifying from a technical standpoint but the effect is still magical

@aniiyengar at a truly big company they won’t ask you this. they’ll move onto the whiteboard questions lol startups want to see some level of enthusiasm for the product tho

@sonyasupposedly @metametrician @mechanicalmonk1 actually kind of doubt this is true Twitter/Facebook’s most valuable asset is the trove of user data — if anyone had it, anyone could target ads as well as them. As such they take great care that only they get to extract the ML rents from it

@sonyasupposedly @metametrician @mechanicalmonk1 no clue what the data vendors like Acxiom and others are up to though or how they might infer social network info from their connections to twitter

fb will almost definitely snowclone the whole functionality of Affirm, AliPay, etc. they’ll make their own credit scores, bank accounts https://x.com/TurnerNovak/status/1333089144004894721

the micro lending here is probably under appreciated

@aquariusacquah i doubt there’s much opportunity in the US yeah primarily other markets — could see this taking off in India (paytm is not all that functional)

@aquariusacquah tbh they’re not all that eager to let American companies in either but fb already has a giant footprint in India lol this may accelerate the merging of Aadhaar card identity with FB identity and I’m not sure if that’s good

if i like every tweet in your thread except the top one please note im just trying to avoid twitter snitching on me faving ur beautiful but problematic tweets

don’t know why he’s pushing this line coming up with an idea is easy validating how it works in a complex system is hard https://x.com/mattyglesias/status/1332850386022129665

@Tyler_The_Wise agree with the general sentiment but is there any specific case of the FDA eg waiting too long to approve the phase III trial or something? it doesn’t look like it

@aquariusacquah yeah I’m guilty of this too tbf post hoc policy buzzword solutions are cheap and make you sound smart

@LoneVoltsAhead @Tyler_The_Wise did the UK do challenge trials?

@Tyler_The_Wise link is broken yeah the delay with the EUA is sus

@Willyintheworld @aquariusacquah no doubt that there’s free energy in the system but I doubt we can expect order of magnitude improvements or anything

@Willyintheworld @aquariusacquah also in this case HCT may have shortened the approval timeline by a few months but wouldn’t have changed the bottleneck of production ramp at all

@browserdotsys ok call me crazy but I think imagenet dying is net good for computer vision I don’t want to see any more 99.2 -> 99.4% improvements, the whole dataset got Goodhart’d

@BarneyFlames @browserdotsys ok yeah I buy it is the ReaL set still maintained by deepmind?

@halvorz 1 whole thing?? Impressive

are there ML algorithms for jury screening yet

@ChrisCroy goddammit cyberpunk af

@ChrisCroy this is true but at a surface level lot of naive 1:1 mappings between human and AI labor but have not rethought entire vertical stacks

@guywhits yeah high key loved it high key sucked

@eigenrobot based and durantpilled

@AOCoomies nice

DeepMind turned their eyes to this longstanding problem not more than 4 years ago and have virtually solved it (CASP’s words not mine) in that time https://x.com/demishassabis/status/1333434924049772545

@halvorz deepmind has a problem where they’ll do something genuinely amazing but then oversell it anyway for marketing

@ne0agent1c cold shower

@wesleyytian only the stuff that escapes elegant encapsulations: where induction is more powerful than deduction

@alth0u yup, repurpose self attention transformer to do graph learning and profit none of these are new methods

@WillManidis @alth0u haha maybe so if you prune down the space to "applied ML" but i think there are lots of theory advances left in Deep RL, novel architectures etc some of these will become clearer on the next compounding of compute power

@WillManidis @alth0u i continue to believe that the interplay between cognitive neuroscience and deep learning will be one of the great flywheels of 21st century science and i'm not sure that we're close to the end

@WillManidis @alth0u agreed tbh i got a whole neurips paper out of this insight and doing some engineering that no one else would do

@eigenrobot at the last i wish there were 50 state level FDAs with varying levels of risk tolerance + different approaches

@eigenrobot least* probably can't eliminate the clinical trial process entirely but it should function more like a multi armed bandit continuous growth of the test arm as long as the results seem better than the control arm

@eigenrobot even better would be the challenge trials

@aquariusacquah startup advice: do not poast lawsuit bait on twitter before finding product marker fit

@halvorz the fact that not even China used them makes me sus

@randallsquared @jstalnaker1 brute force method is indeed intractable

@halvorz but it is interesting how little resources pharma companies have spent on this https://moalquraishi.wordpress.com/2018/12/09/alphafold-casp13-what-just-happened/

@halvorz also I’m not sure but “current methods” may be doing some heavy lifting by here

@browserdotsys @halvorz it is strange because their approach is conceptually very simple, and in fact it's pretty much what all the academic researchers were doing as well

@browserdotsys @halvorz they started with some fancy methods where a GAN would dream up fragment and another net would assemble together but afterwards they simplified to just predicting inter-residue distances (at a finer scale than most), and it was enough to win CASP13 by a long margin

@browserdotsys @halvorz CASP14 seems to just have added some well known graph-based attention architectures so i guess it's literally just superior engineering?

@moultano @halvorz @browserdotsys way less the team is less than a dozen people iirc

@alth0u @browserdotsys @halvorz i don't think learning TF is the bottleneck; there are plenty of really zany neural nets that have been thrown at this by academia

@moultano @halvorz @browserdotsys lmao i can imagine have to one up openAI at all costs

@browserdotsys @halvorz i'm also wondering does this enable the reverse AlphaFold? come up with an RNA sequence that will roughly match a desired shape

@halvorz @browserdotsys but we don't need to consider all 20^100 options right? just like we don't have to consider all 3^100 conformers when folding the protein if alphafold can inference shapes in novel parts of the protein space then it should help the reverse problem as well via trial and error

@halvorz @browserdotsys that may not have made too much sense but my point is that you can use alphafold as a sort of reward function to a reverse model if alphafold performs well enough out of distribution

hahaha what the everliving fuck is this the Experts are reverse engineering gaslighting https://x.com/emollick/status/1333571781727318019

@browserdotsys @halvorz imo this is the main reason why "protein folding is solved" is a bit too grandiose protein folding with co evolutionary data may be somewhat solved but may not help when trying to construct novel proteins

@browserdotsys @halvorz there are groups trying to do it from the physics alone but it's much harder

@halvorz seems to be burying the lede — how does protein structure not help with understanding viable drug targets? better, cheaper QSAR simulation, docking simulation, etc

@halvorz I’m sure Derek knows better than me but as an example, on the other side of the binding equation, conformer search is v important in searching for viable small molecules to bind to proteins

@passacagliostro @eigenrobot the benefits of decentralization (no single point of failure) can sometimes outweigh the costs

the most mysterious thing in all this is, which software startup is drowning in hot babes wtf my man is worrying about overpopulation on mars