@tszzl — page 24/103

the primary benefit of immortality would be to make “screenshot this” tweets and then smugly QT it 10,000 years into the future https://x.com/jdcmedlock/status/1316158303236362240

@mutual_ayyde yup https://x.com/tszzl/status/1315868171283427329

interesting how people eat breakfast across various continents and cultures but apparently it’s a US government plot https://x.com/Dalai_Mama_/status/1315847496376242176

actually sleep was invented in the 1700s to sell mattresses

@Teleonomic @conorduffy_7 yeah i can say without a hint of irony that one of our biggest problems is a lack of problems a la Fukuyama's End of History

@gbrl_dick https://x.com/BeijingPalmer/status/1176719941870981120?s=20

@conorduffy_7 @Teleonomic yeah, tbh, i don't see how secular trends in birth rates halt or reverse without massive changes in ideology i would like to hope that opening the heavens would do it, but i kind of doubt it biological immortality is really the only thing that would guarantee high pop growth

@gbrl_dick lot of latent expectation for psyops built into the human psyche and very few actual outlets 🥲

@QiaochuYuan tbh i think the lognormal speculation distribution is less stupid but still misses the point

@mutual_ayyde sapir and whorf's biggest accomplishment is getting the Arrival shoutout

@browserdotsys training GPT-3 locally i see

@browserdotsys you mean you don't have 2,000 GPUs?

@browserdotsys actually i suppose you could do it with like ~60 3090s with a minuscule batch size lol

@gigafelon @browserdotsys those parameters are apparently worth $10 million worth of training (in just the final model training run) so would be surprised

@gigafelon @browserdotsys plus the utility of having access to a 700 GB model file is questionable lol

@gigafelon @browserdotsys you'd probably need a contract with a cloud provider to do any useful fine tuning

@browserdotsys @gigafelon i will exfiltrate it using 3000 floppy disks

@Aella_Girl immigration is a highly selective process

@PstafarianPrice I am wondering if there have ever been congressional hearings that weren’t clown shows at any point I want to believe the Lincoln movie is accurate

@BudreskiMitch @Noahpinion this is literal complete nonsense and you have beclowned yourself

@powerbottomdad1 @jeff82874662 completely owned

@powerbottomdad1 reading something thats not entertaining (unless you're getting paid for it) is a complete L but im sure there are some sick and twisted people who find Capital entertaining

wait who likes to punch on me!!! also thank u @VecnanKrait https://x.com/BecomingCritter/status/1316454126419685376

@AOCummies @AOCummies plz stop flexing ur special protected status among the twitter algorithms. u r being very insensitive to us PoC (poasters of color) that get banned for saying milquetoast shit like "fugly sl*t"

@NLRG_ @QiaochuYuan like QC says, the long tail is because the parameter for "how likely is life to form on an earthlike planet" is basically a fantasy parameter that stretches over 200 orders of magnitude, and I doubt even that estimate is accurate

@NLRG_ @QiaochuYuan and it seems to me like describing the range as exponents of 10 is just a matter of scientific presentation clarity? does not seem like there's a robust reason for a log normal prior or a log uniform prior

@NLRG_ @QiaochuYuan this paper (https://arxiv.org/pdf/1609.05931.pdf) actually uses a log log prior

@VecnanKrait answer for your crimes @AOCummies

@The_Geraldoid how can he be so bad at poasting. it’s kind of insane

@The_Geraldoid slap on the wrist fine and a restriction saying that all tesla related tweets would have to be approved by his board of directors lol. however he freely ignores that and the SEC doesnt do anything. not even the government can control Bad Poasts

@The_Geraldoid it would be very hard for them to prove that he didnt get pre approval probably half the board is his relatives and cronies lol

@acuteadjacent @powerbottomdad1 gonna take a guess that it was "Making the Modern World"

this has aged poorly i'm sure there'll be even more red tape after all this https://x.com/tszzl/status/1241453979894190085

@eigenrobot there is a notable Neolithic tribe that still hasn’t figured it out but i assume many of them figured it out 100,000s of years ago

@noampomsky yes, do it anyway

having been in both worlds this is completely true https://t.co/qtEI99eqPC

i have very often seen analysis and write ups in the form of internal blog posts that are higher quality than conference published research

@bayes_baes true but I’m comparing CS/ML academia and industry here

@bayes_baes I did work in a chemistry lab for a bit; they were more poorly organized but took better care or their data lol

@cosmotechnic @bayes_baes yeah, i get what you mean I think; it’s the sensation of tinkering with various hypotheses, and investing more into the ones that actually work, without artifice, like a very smart bandit algorithm

@cosmotechnic @bayes_baes the “quality” of the research or care taken with the analysis is downstream of this I would say

wow this is way better than the a16z podcast

oh you solved Starcraft? unreproducible, i don't have 10,000 computers oh you made a tiny improvement on a learning algorithm? unreproducible, probably just bad hyperparameters on the control trial https://t.co/oifXNMpwi8

@marx_knopfler very true, the pipeline of irreproducibility

@Dong_Marria @powerbottomdad1 you really finding personal growth by reading bill gates top 100 books or whatever?

@Dong_Marria @powerbottomdad1 you think he or I believe we know everything lol?

@Dong_Marria @powerbottomdad1 i read all the time lmao sometimes even power through nonfics that are not page turners again i think you're missing the point

@AOCummies pusillanimous fool's gold piece of shit

@jachaseyoung @VecnanKrait thanks jordan :) feeling is mutual

@conorduffy_7 dangit but i love hating on nate

the future is just jeff bezos funding 10,000 thinktanks full of overproduced elites studying various useless topics so they dont rebel

honestly, this is a good future

@forbca lmao wow everything repeats huh

@LobsterPosture @RossPeronism @powerbottomdad1 Phaedrus one of my faves haha you’re thinking too deeply abt a shitpost

this is just a true and real consequence of the principle that being """informed""" is overrated https://x.com/powerbottomdad1/status/1316441061322088449

i would also wager that learning about the world in the form of 500 page airport nonfictions made artificially longer for the sake of the publishers is probably not efficient

@darrmv agreed

@forbca ive read like a quarter of it, but tbh not that interested in economic history

@sonyasupposedly kind of had the exact opposite reaction to this these shapes look quite unpleasant precisely because they're organic and trigger disgust instinct 4th one will straight up ruin any tryptophobics

@sonyasupposedly guess i'm thoroughly modernistcucked all the way to the aesthetic layer 🥲

@jeff82874662 oh so *now* you think shitposting is art huh Jeff

@eigenrobot how do we not have a New Zealand type area for testing new laws smfd

@WhippleMarc @eigenrobot missing the point lol i dont literally mean new zealand lets cordon off florida and turn it into a testing zone

@eigenrobot yeah i'm thinking the CCP has a quick experiment dashboard

when they invented the term supernormal stimulation. they were thinking of this cow https://x.com/Xouped/status/1316726202288275457

@bigbreadbasket @Dong_Marria @powerbottomdad1 yes Capital is on this list

@bigbreadbasket @Dong_Marria @powerbottomdad1 piketty not marx

@sonyasupposedly hmm this doesn’t seem like something that has to be “theorized” since there are modern forager societies we can study

@Evolving_Moloch @sonyasupposedly cc: @jachaseyoung

@sidkap_ Piketty and Pinker are notable mainstays of the TED Talk circuit class both probably bestsellers in amazon nonfics anyway this maybe a side message from pbd's thing

@EvropeanUnion @HarmlessYardDog i'll do it for free

@gbrl_dick this is a key pathology of modernity tbh. still can’t believe we had a news cycle where we were convinced 30 ads from low tier Russian shitposters won enough hearts and minds to change the US election outcomes

@aquariusacquah tOdAy yEaRs oLD

the euros conquered the world precisely because their food sucked so much ass and their descendants betray them like this ... smh https://x.com/currydoomer/status/1317306687250780161

@gbrl_dick horseshoe theory prevails

@rplevy of course, we get many orders of magnitude fewer experiment arms to work with than biology, so all things considered we’re doing ok

@rplevy if we could trial a billion micro service architectures in parallel I suppose we’d get it right pretty quickly too

the oceans will evaporate and sun will burn out before nutritionists settle their bullshit debate on fat vs sugar

@powerbottomdad1 fuck a book, all my homies hate books

@forbca if you read kindle it actually will get tracked!

ok so which tiktok girls are we pretending are actually smart and insightful to counter signal this week

@RokoMijicUK tbh Elon and bill gates can probably be counted as rationalists. I’ve seen the former actually refer to the Basilisk before

@RokoMijicUK the latter is clearly the grandmaster of “effective altruism” type interventions

@alth0u 🤯

@jachaseyoung this is the undersold alternative to the paper clip maximized dystopia. whoever is the first to a powerful AI and figures out a way to control it will become hegemon

@overtone_window about as good as asking random undergrads who happen to be close by tbh

@guywhits little known boutique software called Microsoft Word, it’s pretty niche

some people document the most difficult problems and bugs they’ve solved so they can talk about them in interviews and such I try my hardest to forget them

@jeff82874662 thatsthejoke.jpg

@eigenrobot way ahead of you

@MiloJKing @eigenrobot newton too

@daninutero me forgetting the worst debugging sessions of my life is like women forgetting the pain of childbirth so they can go on to the next one

hahaha dumbass ants. humans would never death spiral in a complex failure mode of a collective optimization behavior, r-right guys?

extremely fucked that this got more engagement than my actual twete

wait a second --

@forbca hahaha yes

worst career progression of all time

@ZaidJilani common pattern: secular theodicy

mcdonalds $1 drip coffee is one of the legitimate wonders of the modern world

@vgr not sure how R&M made its way all the way up there haha

@eigenrobot This is the ideal male body. You may not like it, but this is what peak performance looks like

@jachaseyoung it almost *has* to be better right? assuming any of the 100s of vaccine candidates work and scale up, the joy of just being able to move freely again will be amazing (at least in the US. not sure how rest of the anglosphere is doing)

@AaronEstel @jachaseyoung seems vanishingly unlikely if you ask me most empires go out by slow decay rather than all at once

@AaronEstel @jachaseyoung whatever the secular trend of US politics is, it seems hard to argue that an economic recovery and general good health won’t lift spirits in the short run

@mlanetrain are the markets super concerned with vote tampering? seems like the only thing that could warrant such a deviation from polling

@mlanetrain lol how is Australia with gambling laws? please go make a killing on this my friend

@leaacta fuck I lost or maybe won?

@guywhits that orangutan is OUT come January!

green text cope https://x.com/fetishhours/status/1318040366189195265

i got an email telling me one of my deadlines had been extended so i reactivated twitter. then i got another email saying the last email was a mistake. what the fuck

according to a new study ur fat and dumb

what could it mean 🤔

@rbbrbrrn imo it’s funnier when it’s negative you know what I’ll twist it positive in the replies

study failed to replicate. Ur actually cute and funny :)

@RaccoonYeshua the only two things that matter

what happened to her 👀

@guywhits i choose to imagine that this likely 30 something dude is actually nancy reagan

@replicaofself what does it sort for?

lost 8.5 iq reading this paper https://x.com/AliNouriPhD/status/1318967587796099074

@jachaseyoung where do you fall on this? i tend to buy into the “pattern of information” theory of mind. as long as there’s continuity of software you’re alive. but this is all a cope because i can’t convince myself of this at the gut level. would still not want to walk into the teleporter lol

@jachaseyoung however if you asked me whether I’d be ok with slowly replacing my brain piece by piece with machine elements I feel like I’d be fine with it instinctually lol. though the processes are indistinguishable

@jachaseyoung also noticed how brain surgery seems like a terrifying loss of self but taking psychoactive drugs for the long term ... feels ok?

bill gates and elon are “rationalists” in all but name. the former is the god king of effective altruism and the latter unironically believes in roko’s basilisk lol not to mention the collisons who tweet rat adjacent stuff all the time https://x.com/nosilverv/status/1318930165834174468

i wouldn’t call myself a rationalist at all, but some of these critiques are pretty weak. the lesswrong types do in fact believe in developing and trusting in instincts

@nosilverv hmm not sure i follow

@FlawedRubi the point is that BG shares the general utilitarian naturalist convictions of the rats

@jachaseyoung is true, and even it was permadeath it could still be valuable. i think a lot of people would trade death for long lasting glory/legacy or the livelihoods of their children (extensions of their own patterns).

@luke_metro pounding diet cokes rn

@jachaseyoung @resurected_moon just floating in a blank void as seen here

one thing about writing papers is that by the time you're finished it is absolutely impossible to see the scientific value in it lol. it just looks like overengineered nonsense to me

@HitzelChris not sure. there’s a lot of cognitive and academic infrastructure built around the paper/conference/journal constructs I guess. Very difficult to switch to something more bite sized and informal

@HitzelChris feel like you could do signaling and review even with a decentralized system

@eigenrobot tell us in ciphers

@ne0agent1c status games are pre capitalist though

@eigenrobot i DMd

@eigenrobot oh work chat lol dont know your real name

@cosine_distance exactly my feeling

@qorprate if only MIRI understood how to vibe

best time to be on twitter is when some game changing tech stuff happens i miss gpt3 discourse

you're in the club and this guy slaps your girls ass, wyd?

@bronzebarbarian all of them in rapid succession

@jachaseyoung i think 3d printing is reaching price points that finally live up to its promise and it's not yet hit the mainstream awareness yet

@jachaseyoung crazily enough, social media is probably still underappreciated in terms of impact (whether negative or positive i cannot say)

@jachaseyoung unfortunately i can give you a catalogue of things that i think are overhyped but not many that are underhyped i think the modern AI rev gets the appropriate amount of attention

@jachaseyoung one important thing may be that I have good reason to believe moore's law is not dead despite Intel and others trying so hard to convince us it is. expect processors to continue growing exponentially more powerful and with it unlocking entirely new modalities of computation

@jachaseyoung hahaha

@jachaseyoung senior chip designer Jim Keller talks about this a bit here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c01BlUDIlK4 if you're interested

WHO BUILT THE CAGES JOE?

this is the future liberals want

@harveykrishna_ beautiful. I can finally stop doomscrolling. Time to log off

i never understood the Akira thing where they're just hungering for the destruction of civilization but these days i get it

honestly if it comes out that you can delete 90% of a mouse genome and not destroy anything crucial Taleb will be thrown out to the streets https://t.co/qqUyLGug7T

@averagely the only guy representing my interests in the entire government

@koaleszenz from a high level philosophical view, scientists successfully identifying a bunch of DNA that actually turns out to be legitimately useless in a complex system would be devastating his ideas

@vsbobclear @koaleszenz for example he is very much against GMO because he's afraid of the unintended consequences of tinkering with these systems

@vsbobclear @koaleszenz FTR i tend to agree i doubt that everything we think of as 'junk dna' is actually without function think back on the doctors thinking tonsils were truly useless organs but i don't know enough about this to take a stance

borat 2 is punching down

@paulg @Austen any metric once used for optimization becomes useless it's only a matter of time before the new search engine sucks too the only way to get out is to use a search engine technology that's too small to merit SEO

@The_Geraldoid incredible

@luke_metro it’s fine it’s not awful or anything the commentary is just very cringe

@alth0u totally agree and they didn’t lean into that in borat 2 have not ever laughed harder than when he tells Pamela Anderson that he’s the son of “bardok the rapist”

graph neural net http://www.cs.toronto.edu/~tingwuwang/nervenet.html https://x.com/nwilliams030/status/1319821079301574657

this 4 panel radicalized me https://x.com/nic__carter/status/1281020129019604992

god fuck there are 5 panels. im not sending my best

@BrickOverton no president ever wants to admit they’re in the good times until they’re gone

@ellegist selection pressure with the influx of would be “science communicators” and the lack of actual advancement in the field you have to embrace populist woo to compete

@alth0u i think all the platforms do combination lump sum + royalty contracts

@jachaseyoung With the wonders of the global web, we have built an optimization engine to find and surface the most condensed form possible of each valuable lesson, virtually guaranteeing that the internet will be better at teaching children than schools

even for the “bad to make you click” genre this one is something special. performance art right here https://x.com/Slate/status/1320179628066091011

unbelievable https://x.com/CNN/status/1320383380907827201

after the libs spending the last 4 years “discrediting social media” this is the stance they’re gonna take huh

@infinitsummer @patio11 has extensively

the quest to find strong AI is a journey into our own minds

every discovery we make re: the capabilities of giant neural nets has philosophical implications for animal/human cognition and vice versa

@overtone_window Yup that has already started happening

@alth0u will be absolutely brutal tbh already saw a bit of that with the language models

@neolibureaucrat no guarantee of course, but that's my gamble from what i've seen

@neolibureaucrat as in that's your prior or you are implying that it's my unstated prior?

@neolibureaucrat what are the alternatives to mind = machine? what would the implications of mind != machine be?

what would the economic effects of curing biological aging look like? altered carbon gets it completely wrong btw

@NLRG_ the only completely correct answer

@wolfred_bromley yeah

@PereGrimmer does this include upbringing? children will just die w.o parents protection

@_Jason_Dean_ pop growth would go way up and we’d probably have the Malthusian explosion that we avoided for the last few hundred years

@T_Walt615 fewer physical risks but more financial/status game risks probably you can always take an L on a startup and come back from it

greatest tragedy of my life is that my spine is slightly curved so I’m 6’2” when I should be 6’3” :( https://x.com/Virtual1nstinct/status/1320532058930860032

@wolfred_bromley For example, zuckerberg would only be rich until such a time as someone builds something better than Facebook right? So if you assume healthy competition and steady technological change, we shouldn’t have a permanent oligarchy

6’2” = king of manlets 6’3” = genetically ideal Chad

@aifjs Oh no on a percent basis it hit you much harder

@bryancsk 😇😇😇

@gigafelon @CountJ0ecool @Virtual1nstinct It’s Time To Build

@Ezekiel_Martini yes and you need to get jacked to not look like slenderman

@toadboy slightly curved side to side eg scoliosis

@thinkingcloud Is humanity split into eg those who can afford smartphones and those who can’t? Not really. 13 years after iPhone, even the peasant farmers of India and Africa can afford smartphones

@thinkingcloud not to mention that generally pharmaceutical therapies are so cheap to produce that the drug companies give them out for free in low income regions

@BuckyFuller60 altered carbon gets the tech right probably, but not the economic implications

@goblinodds thank🙏you🙏for🙏your🙏service

@Randylad lmao is it you?

@KHicksEfficient not really retirement funds are unnecessary when nobody retires and medicare is cheap if it doesn’t have to disburse any end of life care. Imagine treating a bunch of people who are 20-30 years old in terms of health — no cardiac conditions, no diabetes, organs in perfect order

unfollowing all the right wing accounts b/c i am getting too redpilled and i sense my employability dropping by the second

@KHicksEfficient Yeah in my scenario ppl who are 70 who take this pill de-age back to 25

@KHicksEfficient Most pharmaceuticals are very cheap to produce a marginal unit

@KHicksEfficient SS is a social contract with the elderly; provide for your society during the years that you can and we will provide for you when you can't. if they can indeed be productive workers, then that social contract falls apart, regardless of the letter of the law

@One____Nation drew is without a doubt to the left of me

bottomwit: haha foreigners funni midwit: "borat is a satire on the intolerance and cultural myopia of americans" "borat is unacceptably racist to the kazhaks" topwit: haha foreigners funni

@Hellachans @MrPoseidon i am so tired.

the thing I love most about veep is that they spend a whole episode shitting on nate silver

@MrPoseidon S4e10 I think

@la_la_london_ in altered carbon, only the rich can afford biological immortality for centuries when we've seen with developments in biomed and computers technology that prices are generally deflationary ... stuff that's accessible only to the rich becomes democratized in a decade

@nair_rohit98 will children never grow up? forever under the wing of their rich parents?

it's remarkable how little power the social media companies really wield when they could destroy or create politician's entire careers on a whim by making slight tweaks to the ranking algorithm

the gulf between our expectation of their power and their actual power is where all the russian intelligence bogeymen and cambridge analytica hoaxes slide in. people are in disbelief that such awesome power is in the hands of so few who totally refuse to use it

and even now when mark and jack seem to sort of understand, they mostly just kowtow to the whims of the regime to downrank minor league reports about hunter biden

to get a picture: if FB wanted, it could easily target Get Out The Vote ads to likely R voters in swing districts and move the needle without breaking a sweat. the fact that it doesn't actually do this is ... kind of inexplicable?

@wannabegroncho yeah lol imagine thinking we spend 24 hours a day glued to twitter due to the brilliance of their engineering we do this to ourselves

the core conceit of the Social Dilemma falls apart when you ask yourself: am I really addicted to twitter due to the brilliance of twitter engineering? the very same one that has a data breach every other month and the DMs don’t work on an average day?

@alth0u yeah w.o a doubt but back then even making social media ad buys was innovative and new

@ne0agent1c oh definitely they’ve applied a blur filter to the whole political system but they could definitely pull the levers on targeted outcomes if they had the balls

@mattparlmer @forbca wouldn’t my bias be to claim that we have brilliant engineering and not that we stumbled on gold?

@alth0u agreed but it takes the onus of blame off of the dealers and puts it on the ... existence of chemical dependency

@leaacta i can empathize with all the common answers on here fuck this was the infohazard wasn't it

everything is discovered and nothing is invented https://x.com/SamoBurja/status/1320792736488923139

@BrentlyLee tristan harris has an object level point and also a much scarier nexus of meta level implications re: insidious genius engineers half a world away finding microscopic openings in your mind to steal your attention the object level point is not that hard hitting in isolation

@browserdotsys "experts and data" just hit the pavlovian response trigger and now i'm mad for no reason

@browserdotsys my mind security for this is so brittle that if they switched up the keyphrases even slightly i'd probably believe it

@powerbottomdad1 incredible this joke has a TAM of like 100 people

@McQuinTrix indulging your base consumption instincts is lindy 🤔

@mutual_ayyde @alth0u yes do we love twitter due to cheap psychological tricks of the platform or deep instinctual hunger for (social) information? the moral consequences could not be more different

@mutual_ayyde @alth0u in the former case, twitter can be "solved" by turning it into a utility and removing the profit motive in the latter case our descent into madness is inevitable so long as social media exists in any form

@eigenrobot the eye of sauron, but with an attention span of 5 minutes

human in the loop AI is always a local minimum — agents trained this way will retain the biases of the human experts. The gold standard is learning from data generated by the agent’s interaction with the world. reinforcement learning from scratch.

@alth0u oh yeah for sure in many problem spaces it reduces the computational cost by several orders of magnitude to get to a working solution

blackpilled again https://t.co/JqgtgdtUGK

@PereGrimmer @olivertraldi arguing in a tweet thread can only make a few people angry at a time but engineering a online quiz designed to point out irrefutable evopsych differences -- now you're creating chaos and disharmony at scale

@AOCummies wait giv link

hey @mattparlmer how's this for a game theoretic death spiral https://x.com/mmasnick/status/1321190771148685315

@sirsfurther @eigenrobot @gigafelon our thin skinned elites why even bother trying to rule if you can't take the heat from the mobs

wait a second how have the Jains been avoiding eating yogurt as to not cause harm to microorganisms for several hundred years before Robert Hooke

@gigafelon @Virtual1nstinct my local community of the suburban midwest

@browserdotsys im imagining him sitting alone in a giant lecture hall way in the back

@rplevy no they seem to have understood in some capacity that microbes turn milk into yogurt

@AOCummies @ShinerWok fries look incredible rn

@ChrisCroy the thing is jains have believed in microbial organisms since prehistory and somehow related them to yogurtification its not a modern practice

@eigenrobot incidentally this is also the lesson of dragonball z

this is the quality of the average NBER paper https://x.com/AlecStapp/status/1321120538664853504

@AOCummies there are apps for this

@edavidds can do this under some sort of hush hush campaign the algorithms are opaque and there are very few people who would notice even inside the company

@__ice9 indeed, the clear anti trump bias of the tech industry is proof positive that they didn’t tap even a percent of their ability to move the needle in 2016

@ProfitProfound @currydoomer we're getting a MF search helicopter

@nectarina12 popping melatonins like ‘ludes

@neolibureaucrat doesn’t matter if it leaks towards the tail end, after the government is filled with friendlies due to such election interference. granted any half measures would be worse than nothing at all

@neolibureaucrat not to mention, if we are looking at a really ambitious takeover Zuck could kill the distribution of the leak story. This doesn’t work in 2020 since cable still exists, but how many will get their news from non SM sources in another twenty years?

@neolibureaucrat without a doubt this is a far off scenario. Not saying it will happen today or tomorrow but he who owns the flow of all information in a democratic society is all powerful

@neolibureaucrat also the flaw with your argument is that any story will not be allowed to “come out” in any meaningful way if it displeases the big bosses. It could get hunter biden’d except a lot worse

@AOCummies this dude is famous for publically making a lot of predictions abt which tech companies going bankrupt and having a 100% failure rate

@maxdunat @powerbottomdad1 ya

@browserdotsys tfw Wall Street was anticipating the good news but quantitatively larger good news

@currydoomer yeah I’m thinking this baps

@turrible_tao how are you folx not blocked already

@gigafelon @browserdotsys had to spin my nips paper as positive for the environment for the required “social impact” section lol

@browserdotsys @gigafelon tbf I got away with a single poorly argued paragraph and it’s supposedly not counted towards acceptance decision

@browserdotsys @gigafelon however slippery slopes are real

@gigafelon @browserdotsys yeah leaves a bad taste in the mouth handful of ideological rent seekers extracting O(n) asymmetric proof of work

@gigafelon @browserdotsys also seems p disingenuous because it’s anywhere from hard to impossible to predict the long term social impact of a new technology if I could do that I’ll just happily make a billion dollars on the stonk market

you’re at the club and this guy slaps your girls ass wyd?

@overtone_window what’s her game ...

@_djpn @turrible_tao she screenshotted my relatively innocuous reply to one of her tweets to her thousands of followers and then blocked me without giving me a chance to defend myself lol

@_djpn @turrible_tao the exchange iirc taylor: the tech industry would be better if it was run by wammen me: point out that sheryl sandberg basically created the digital ad duopoly taylor: blocced buddy

@ESYudkowsky his famous net however is called LeNet

@58mbr @MelisaT0urtUnal

@browserdotsys become an egirl

@eigenrobot @Noahpinion tfw noah has unfortunately ruined extraordinarypoasting

@leaacta to my great regret im still convinced that technological advance is a moral good

@leaacta this sub is poppin'

pretty cyberpunk 99% of the images you see on the internet will be reimagined by a decompression neural net at the CDN level https://x.com/wongmjane/status/1320866824087457792

inb4 "everything you see is reimagined by your own optical cortex"

bigfoot is real https://t.co/W4ymvaHSKT

@powerbottomdad1 thats the Sasquatch right there

@Human9b6c432f the chinese build them at $3500 a kilowatt

@jstn the hunger for bandwidth is literally inexhaustible internet traffic grew every year for the past 5 years by 25-30%

@Human9b6c432f all modern reactor designs just turn themselves off when deprived of water we are not in the age of shitty mass produced soviet union reactors

@Human9b6c432f even with unreliable water sources the LCOE of nuclear is far below wind, solar etc "why not just go with renewables" is a false dichotomy; the energy mix of the future will most likely be solar and nuclear in tandem

@Human9b6c432f the amount of batteries you'd need to build to make solar the sole source of energy is truly enormous, and is only plausible when considering future technological breakthroughs, not to mention the race to the bottom for rare earths etc

@Human9b6c432f OTOH we've had safe nuclear reactors for decades and they get better all the time

@Human9b6c432f tbh no idea, haven't considered it maybe it's better to short their potential competitors

@eigenrobot it’s simple, you either believe science or you don’t

@billpshort sending billions of images across the internet pipes is very difficult and expensive so they send a compressed, smaller version and have an AI on your end “imagine” what the original high res image looked like

i frequently mass unfollow people when i hit 5000 lol https://t.co/KZxtOOqzS8

really @dangercat5000 all this means is that you’ve regained my follow with your 🔥 content 7 individual times

@AOCummies unbelievable cunsooming

this has always been the enemy https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/1321902309010530307

I will always defend the humble predictit trader betting $10 based on what he read on twitter over mr. nate pyrite

@Cullen_OK our ability to do CBA on complex ecologies without actually running the experiment is pretty limited imo in this case the order of magnitude analysis alone is enough to discount the argument but in the general case status quo bias is probably good

i have made several contradictory predictions over the past few months, and depending on what happens ill go back and delete the wrong ones and smugly QT the right ones https://x.com/orthonormalist/status/1322017815746895873

@conorduffy_7 funny how they’re used exclusively for shitty seances

@_djpn unfortunately my political predictions are even bigger shitposts than my stonk picks

@_djpn I gotta say being right on Tesla was an absolutely great feeling, because I actually like the company and it’s style. Being right on politics is ... not as fun

@_djpn I’m maxed out on a few predictit markets but not that emotionally invested strangely

planet sized C O P E https://x.com/carolynporco/status/1321823514375061505

@NemoBane ❤️

“everyone hates economists bc we’re unbelievably winning and have huge dongs”

@overtone_window Rahul will u be my chief of staff

@overtone_window I have no other staff but that can be remedied

@AOCummies wonderful news

@AOCummies joyous day

i think this is a cope from literal decades of having completely unremarkable uninspiring leaders most of us want a Lee Kuan Yew elder statesman grandmaster type but we're resigned to the fact that we won't get one https://x.com/ahardtospell/status/1322283724583718912

"listening to the experts" is highly overrated in that the skill of the manager is in distinguishing which lieutenants are hucksters and which are productive, a problem much more difficult than selecting those publicly recognized as "top" in the field

@alth0u lee kuan yew exudes a gravitas that even a western could respect

in the private sector the best performing companies are led by visionary CEOs who are clearly brilliant at their respective niche of e.g. product, engineering, talent acquisition, etc

@NicholasElodeon he’s a bit of a prick imo

INTERSTELLAR KAREN https://x.com/micsolana/status/1322296283164418048

uhhh soo i seem to have done something stupid and unfollowed everyone lol

@L0m3z insane ratio rn

@gooddogthedog serendipitous mistake in my script

@marx_knopfler nah this is real lol i did something dumb with tweepy

@_djpn i will slowly refollow everyone in my sphere lol

@_djpn kind of siked. bout to have a much slimmer follow list

@conorduffy_7 doom switch :D

dude this shirt’s not old it’s lindy

@guywhits @jeff82874662

martin shrek’s only crime was not raising drug prices enough

@metametrician more and more are saying this!

@conorduffy_7 i get the feeling most early technologies have zealot early adopters so it may not be a good signal

@conorduffy_7 look not to the tech bros but what people are accomplishing w crypto in countries with poor banking infrastructure

@_w0bi @conorduffy_7 yeah don’t get me wrong bitcoin/crypto gets far more attention than it deserves there have been thousands of startups in this space and very little ROI aside from Coinbase, which is mostly just a speculation business

@Cantide1 @metametrician what are these methods? starting to think there’s no way to have a healthy information economy if you have Apps

@NemoBane @jcfanacct well i don’t know if people in general hate tech bros

@NemoBane @jcfanacct to the extent that they do its because of their pathological asociality and delusions of grandeur

I do believe that the media used to be better before the internet only monopolies have the luxury for “don’t be evil”

@Rushil_Kaul1 I can think of many examples of groups being beneficent and individuals being evil

@Rushil_Kaul1 not really, it’s absolutely a luxury eg the Stephen pinker argument material abundance gives people the opportunity to not be murderers and slavers

@NemoBane 1)game dev slept with journo so he’d promote her game 2)hilarity and outrage and psyops ensued online 3) then the liberal mainstream media picked up on it and wrote outrageously dumb things 4) few years later Donald trump is elected 5) yes these are all connected

@NemoBane my completely unbiased view

possibly related https://t.co/oQYVvntuxs

@AOCummies id let her lecture me for hours on intersectionality despite working in corporate strategy for a sociopathic New York new media company

@The_Geraldoid $2.50

I think it’s pretty clear now that Taiwan will be reabsorbed into the mainland and American leadership will do nothing about it they don’t have anywhere near the political capital to compete with the ironclad will of the CCP for reunification

@GreenShootsS i was expecting the US to at least thwart the first few attempts for reunification but it will be uncontested lol

@ProfoundProfit does not help in my experience nor does the black and white shit cold turkey or nothing I guess

@alth0u is that posturing? why would they destroy all the economic value of Taiwan?

@alth0u i am sure you know better than me but it doesn’t seem like the Chinese would tolerate a state genocide of ethnically Han people

love 2 confidently make third order commentary on the discourse about discourses without actually reading anything related to current events

@APunchableGuy how is it good enough? it will require nothing short of a nuke to change the power equation

@eigenrobot @selentelechia i was the first person to follow @powerbottomdad1

lmao @ the depth of narrative control it requires to convince people that hunter is someone you should feel sympathy for, like he's comparable to unemployable fent addicts in the midwest

@gbrl_dick true we can never take that from him

@eigenrobot unclear to me why {BigTechCo} doesn’t solve this problem with their massive audiences

@eigenrobot also I think on top of all these problems the pollsters likely have no idea how to figure in the massive changes in “likely voter” distribution due to historic levels or absentee voting

@eigenrobot i have a number of answers, none satisfying

I am a single issue voter with my single issue being that the results must humiliate nate silver

@oldvillagesage I fully understand that hunter Biden as a discussion topic is yet another layer of psyop just find it amusing nothing that happens in October should change anyone’s vote

@oldvillagesage his models are vastly overrated and he acts online like questioning them is sacrilegious

@spookintheshell its not that I could do better it’s that election models are fundamentally not useful and polling accuracy is in crisis

@_Jason_Dean_ the average pundit has no clue what’s going on and knows it so they just say what’s on their mind nate silver is likewise clueless but dresses it up in the veneer of science to lend credibility to his punditry

@_Jason_Dean_ it’s not that he personally isn’t doing a good enough job it’s impossible to deliver the level of guarantee he promises based on the shit quality of public polling even he knows this so he’s been doing emotional hedging for the past month

@_w0bi @_Jason_Dean_ 9:1

@rickyflows dammit well now I hope he’s right

@AOCummies amazing

@hockey_dad57 except that’s not even a fake guy 😅

@hockey_dad57 https://melmagazine.com/en-us/story/no-nut-november-nofap-masturbation-abstinence-right-wing-extremism

@jeff82874662 very wise decision Jeff

@marathiMaharaja >following 600k accounts goddamn why does he need a follow bot

@Hellachans Vampire Squid for you right there

@RaccoonYeshua butlerian or otherwise?

@marthsshinedair their desire for hot war is low, ours is even lower

@marthsshinedair nothing special tbh i maxxed out on Biden general election ~6 months back and I haven’t changed it since then

@jeff82874662 @nectarina12 probably hedging for whoever’s coming next

@ProfoundProfit 1.6% is not enough bro

@ProfoundProfit Officxrs this man is white!!!

@eigenrobot getting japan’d

@AnKolTakes @eigenrobot and yet none of them are grown up 🧐

@eigenrobot smh how can anyone read this and not think he’s either a grifter or an idiot lmao

@gbrl_dick @eigenrobot i like your optimistic nate theory better but he shits on dissenting views too often to get the benefit of the doubt haha

@Iiberty_prime yeah it’s pure entertainment value imo

@discourseloverr @The_Geraldoid like ... do people think that kids in china are learning anything other than chinese history? with a brief chapter on europe and the west everyone teaches their own story ofc

@overtone_window being brown is better protection than i initially thought

@overtone_window balaji also skated out of his encounter with the legendary T Lorenz pretty ez

@tabongkima @overtone_window lmao ... Taylor playing the long game ...

@billpshort @discourseloverr disagree imo the long term low fidelity view of history is more important than the short view I’d rather we cover Ancient Greece than 9/11 (ideally we can do both)

@billpshort @discourseloverr wouldn't you want it in higher fidelity as you get to the new stuff? e.g. you might cover hundreds of years of greek history in one lesson but you might spend a whole chapter on just the 1930-40s

@billpshort @discourseloverr high level pitch is: there are an abundance of people who have a motivation to learn about current events / contemporary history. i'd need to know what 9/11 is to have any convo about america

@billpshort @discourseloverr but the framing of our lives as one era in western civilization (and more broadly in human history) is v useful and harder to pick up on the fly the value add of a school should be imo stuff that's both (1) useful and (2) you're not likely to learn by yourself

@billpshort @discourseloverr AH i see misread your diagram i thought each dash represented a lesson haha

@eigenrobot happening to the whole world

thinking about this the internet reshaped the topology of memetic/cultural evolution there are way fewer, much deeper attractors that have basically captured the whole world https://x.com/eigenrobot/status/1323389698904002560

does it mean that they’re better? we’ve arrived at the final evolution? or is it a bottlenecking event before a Cambrian explosion

@gigafelon maybe, depending on your outlook

@alth0u augmenting? institutionalizing?

@mechanicalmonk1 @averykimball not a decision just an inevitable result of the capital structure it creates

@ConradBastable @mechanicalmonk1 @averykimball exactly

@guywhits based lemy

@browserdotsys https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Illegal_prime lmao silly security researchers wasting their time when we should just be illegalizing primes!

lmao ❤️ lee kuan yew

@NLRG_ i think not everyone is cut out to “learn to code” and that transforming the whole working class into knowledge workers is a pipe dream

@powerbottomdad1 he was the last dude to understand the world

@jachaseyoung @powerbottomdad1 RIP

@DavidOrlich 😘

@ribaldette no idea all I know is that ubi is no panacea

@spookintheshell @kushnerbomb @spiderfoods I don’t really get the criticism bc techies are the biggest UBI boosters but alright lol

@spookintheshell @kushnerbomb @spiderfoods ok sure but what i'm describing here is a common argument made about the "dignity of work" etc skepticism that the ruling class has solved the problems with policy buzzwords the cynical take is that ubi is the best we can do; the optimist take is that there are better worlds

@spookintheshell @kushnerbomb @spiderfoods not sure what eugenics has to do with it

@spookintheshell @kushnerbomb @spiderfoods the american welfare state is founded on the WASPy work ethic principle of getting people back on their feet and back to work rather than as a permanent situation. as opposed to many of the systems in europe if you think that's inherently fashy take it up with the country

@jeff82874662 @DistractedAnna i think i'm speaking more broadly and across several country's cultures there is a lot of homogenizing going on and lots of countries local politics are looking like proxy battles in the same culture war

@jeff82874662 @DistractedAnna oh and -- from a more superficial view if you go to any major city in the world* you will see the same 5 coffee chains, same hairstyles, same luxury clothing brands, same songs playing at the clubs, skyscrapers designed by the same 20 architects, etc *except maybe china

@bronzebarbarian @eigenrobot shoot for the moon, land among the stars?

@man_ditch based

@The_Geraldoid based determinist

@The_Geraldoid God does not play dice with the universe

@bronzebarbarian @The_Geraldoid RNG is pseudo RNG! it's all predestined!

@neolibureaucrat @_Jason_Dean_ don’t know why I just saw this but yeah he is CLEARLY emotionally hedging one direction

@neolibureaucrat nothing significant really; Hong Kong situation deteriorated further but it was expected mostly i just realized how important Taiwan is to Chinese pride

CONDITIONED ON OWNING A LANDLINE

i don't understand. where do they even find people to fill the 18-25 bucket

@jerrrrryyy_ who are these 173 respondents ...

@__ice9 this would make election polling much more fun

@oldvillagesage not to mention the precipitously falling response rates to public polling -- garbage in, garbage out https://x.com/toad_spotted/status/1322642994131050504?s=20

@oldvillagesage separate occasion where nate's models are significantly underperforming the bookies' odds https://www.pinnacle.com/en/betting-articles/Soccer/comparison-of-predictive-success/VW22X2A2GJEY6YLV

@neolibureaucrat is there a high res version of this?

@eigenrobot since there are no serious monetary rewards, predictit selects for ideologues and ppl who are too online

@eigenrobot get drunker and then just keep refreshing the twitter feed

nate silver in shambles. we are burning effigies of him on the streets https://x.com/jcbonthedl/status/1323727318297284614

woefully bad polling

Oh fuck the Nate’s are fighting https://x.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1323814954533834753

@aniiyengar @ProfoundProfit hell ya

C O P E https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/1323826136586006529

@homsiT lmao I hope so becoming an talebian grifter

@olvgrdn @homsiT he’s just the public face of data punditry

more and more are saying this! https://t.co/Vd1xBgMBQC

@aniiyengar do it, he’s underrated rn imo

@ArguableM the odds were fluctuating rapidly. He’s back at like 56% now

fug its happening https://x.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1323864823680126977

we are not about to hear the end of this one. censorship!

so what does the CIA really mean by "water main break"

:thinking: https://x.com/joshdcaplan/status/1323876509086605313?s=20

@leaacta sorry I love a horse race

@browserdotsys ill riot either way!

@NicholasElodeon @AOCummies incredible cope. how long will you carry water for nate pyrite. Sad!

@ironic_name_69 @homsiT IMBECILE!

this is insane lmao. Maximum keks. Map nerds completely destroyed

@decadantism it’s not mine I got it from a GC, send me a better one if you have it

the question now remains. after ABC news liquidates 538, who will retrain nate silver to become a productive member of society for the first time? https://x.com/tszzl/status/1322825282907119616

@AOCummies @DrewliganLul Lmao

@NLRG_ uncertainty should be baked into the model there is no sense giving us 9:1 odds and then also telling us there’s uncertainty wider error bars = shorter odds

@NLRG_ - politically destabilizing, destroys whole regions worth of jobs - offshores defense critical components by overindexing on the guarantee of world peace - reduces innovative capacity: innovation and offshoring are actually competing for capital and attention

@NLRG_ for point 3, the example would be that china is now leading in electronics hardware R&D since we shipped all the production lines off to china -- hard for us to really do hardware innovation when we're so far detached from all of it

lmao

@bronzebarbarian @NLRG_ not real but i cackled anyway love 2 spread fake news

@sonyasupposedly hahaha not even 1% of gdp on military budget afaik but the image is fake

@samgdf what can i say, there's a market for sh*tting on nate silver

@dewittd he is the public face of public polling

. https://x.com/tszzl/status/1237535521569509377

to be clear he won by double digits in the primaries

@T_Walt615 this was in March https://x.com/tszzl/status/1324116912373002240

trump is a beautiful little chaos monkey revitalizing everything he touches https://x.com/i/events/1323665606844030976

@daninutero @centeredcss destruction is the flipside of creation https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hormesis

they did better than you lol https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/1323962312890503173

@Lyle_Grey @NLRG_ for example, drone stuff

the implied betting market predictions on election night: looks familiar eh?

@_vivalapanda maybe, but trying to analyze the last minute volatility of a futures contract is completely different than its predictive value ex ante

@_vivalapanda like when oil contracts go haywire at the last minute, and some prices are negative -- it doesn't mean that the contract had no value predicting the future dynamics

@_Jason_Dean_ https://x.com/tszzl/status/1324138369308225536?s=20

@_Jason_Dean_ https://x.com/tszzl/status/1324140171365879810?s=20

@_Jason_Dean_ i'm well aware yeah

the last minute volatility of a futures contract doesn't negate its predictive value. its like freaking out that Brent crude futures have a negative price moments before the contract closes. tldr the PredictIt map was way better than nate silver's map on the morning of https://x.com/_Jason_Dean_/status/1324140774041227265

@R1Jack exactly

RT locked account

the twitter autist braintrust is truly powerful. this would all be unintelligible without the Greater @mattparlmer Co-Prosperity Sphere

ok so it's time to stop taking everything in this thread seriously

noah "Here's How Bernie Can Still Win" smith

my friend is telling me that the chinese state news channels are all covering our election with great enthusiasm and close attention -- and what's more they're all cheering for Trump!

@TetraspaceWest this is actually a really good toy demonstration. didn't think of it that way. does the effect persist at high N?

@maxdunat wow good job using inspect element loser

@maxdunat reported

@BrickOverton @mattparlmer lmfao

@tscarrithers @jhpark06_ sorry, there's nothing you can do to save someone who's inhaled this much copium. I will administer palliative care

oh fuck yeah the heavyweights are piling on now https://x.com/zacharylipton/status/1324197145755422721

dub for the One True Nate https://x.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1319972981804859394

@antoniogm every organic system makes more sense once you understand chaos monkeys

@overtone_window @daninutero keep ur eye on The Funnel

@xobnu markets and nate both predicted blue PA

@xobnu yeah a lot of this was about the early narrative with Florida lol but it’s just hilarious to me that the model seems to not have understood anything about the systematic blue bias from 2016 the markets did on the other hand, and he takes every opportunity to shit on them

@gbrl_dick honestly pretty fascinating that the entire world is following our shit ass election as closely as we are

@The_Geraldoid recs seem to have gotten shittier i used to be much more addicted

@aniiyengar this is the future. you just have to make sure you have an aesthetic boring enough to not trigger this guy

@TetraspaceWest i think these are obviously correlated outcomes though

ok i hate to be this guy but this is actually just Veep season 5 https://x.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1324353932022480896

@__ice9 is this a function of more tests per infection or an actual CFR drop

@etherbeers @AOCummies oof

yall pray for my boy pp. aint nothing wrong with him but he coping

@rickyflows @wesleyytian trade balance affects the currency exchange markets if the US is importing more chinese goods, it means a stronger yuan due to more demand trump -> protectionism -> less demand for chinese imports -> we convert fewer USD to CNY -> weaker yuan

@rickyflows @wesleyytian generally you want your currency to be weak if you are trying to boost exports they were artificially keeping it low back in the 2000s but yeah china would happily tradeoff tariffs for geopolitical wins

he literally says this every year. i remember this exact cope in 2016. muh economic model https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/1324497099363405824

not to mention also pooping on the economic models in his free time https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/1288889811940540417?s=20

... https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/809105926993178624?s=20