@_AlastairX_ unless the originator country is genuinely oppressive
then the new one may find expats who are all kinds of very smart religious nuts and whatnot
@AndrewCutler13@browserdotsys@halvorz tbf the pharma companies are basically also monopolists, they continually support like 20% margins
I think they just lack the machine learning expertise
@AndrewCutler13@browserdotsys@halvorz imo the monopolists live in constant fear that their whole ecological niche will get destroyed by the next big thing, so they try to aggressively preempt it. let’s not give them too much credit though. DeepMind may be the only successful alphabet research venture in a long time
@piotr_wasik the thing is that I’m quite confident that you can build new muscle mass by stressing the fibers
but there need not be any similar mechanism for the brain
it certainly isn’t getting any bigger
@eigenrobot hmmm
the graph can be explained by lots of publication bias and no p hacking
in that case we've thrown out some quite useful results due to an arbitrary heuristic but doesn't yet turn this all into nonsense
met up with @harveykrishna_ today. after getting coffee with him he told me “I have become Death, the destroyer of worlds.” and took a glowing many armed form. Didn't know what to make of it.
@koaleszenz@ProfoundProfit@AOCummies this is a silly strawman bc the comparison is between "reasonable lockdown and paranoia induced social distancing" vs "alien invasion level martial law"
theres no reason that the former would allow the rona to reach herd immunity, especially given the vacc timeline
@browserdotsys this would destroy the larp of internet debate as a productive activity so there is no demand for it
but we should make it anyway for the lulz
When vaccinations begin:
• Attend all social events you are invited to
• At "essential" places like the grocery store, aggressively spit in peoples mouths to spread your newfound immunity
• Find indoor bars where you can sit in optimal breath-sharing distance from others
@antoniogm basically every finance junkie spreadsheet pusher on earth is hooked on adderall because these thought cycles are not "natural" at all even for smart people
@eigenrobot hmm idk we do quite a bit of this on my team
only bring a change to experiment review if theres a statsig positive change, otherwise we kill it in the dead of night
@eigenrobot makes total sense for projects that are heavy enough investment to require PM support
but when i tweak 2 knobs and the metrics change isn’t statsig I probably won’t waste my DS’ time with it
@AlexGodofsky@eigenrobot yes we do this often
sometimes shipping something is an engineering necessity but politically difficult if it’s metrics neutral/negative
@WilliamGrobman@Fullbitchschol1 large pop is not enough to ensure that India will be a successful country
India has an insurmountable brain drain problem
@BrickOverton with Israel’s current aggressive posture there’s absolutely no room for cooler heads to prevail in Palestine
I’m not blaming them for the situation, but they are also burning the only way out
@LeefVan seems to me that english classes use them to examine certain time periods and prevailing sentiments (they serve very well for that purpose)
but they are not great works of literature
very boring, not super intense as philosophy or fiction
@R1Jack@AOCoomies yeah lol i think they have to feel reasonably safe about the vaccine before applying it
obviously not the ridiculous standards of the west, but some level of safety guarantees
@_vivalapanda general management stuff
and yeah beating inertia, restructuring deparments, etc
you pay for the instincts of the senior consultant, not the 22 year old's powerpoint
@browserdotsys if im any example i used to venerate science and was extremely surprised when my garbage paper(s) got published
so yeah had to lower my expectations all around
@conorduffy_7@mattparlmer even outside the realm of Dyson spheres and such, i would expect whole planets to be littered with alien artifacts
self reproducing robot swarms, etc
@edavidds@wannabegroncho lol >barren rock
if you can't convincingly state the bull case for colonizing other worlds, it's hard to take this seriously
by the way, the economy is big, has a lot of rich people, and can pursue multiple goals at once
@mattparlmer@conorduffy_7 if someone is messing with energy output of whole stars the mechanism shouldnt matter; we should be able to sense the disturbance
not like comms, which can be as covert or esoteric as the aliens desire
@james_barton@powerbottomdad1 to be clear i'm not sure they'll ever get to that point
but from elon and bezos' perspective its best to nip the competition in the bud
@james_barton@powerbottomdad1 I think that’s mostly PR stuff
They still maintain plenty of highly confidential technologies
Ask them to open source their AI inference chip and see what they have to say
@alth0u related:
people who become deaf after theyve initially learned to talk kind of degrade in quality of speech
maybe speaking requires an active listening and correction loop?
@NeoLibBen every day that a condo remains unrented you pay a vacancy tax of the opportunity cost
therefore it's only vacant if it's not worth it to rent out
why add these arbitrary inefficiencies except for fearmongering about chinese real estate buyers lol?
instead: build housing
@NeoLibBen doesn't add up at all
just because you're using the condo as a financial instrument doesn't mean you wouldn't put it up for rent -- i know plenty of real estate speculators who get monthly checks
you don't put it up for rent when the cost of renting is higher than the profits
@NeoLibBen if your claim is that there are a bunch of irrational real estate speculators making unwise decisions not to rent when they should then they'll probably get a nosebleed at how fast the insanely competitive housing markets destroy them
@NeoLibBen@BrickOverton ??
if buyers are less enthused about construction, then the demand curve goes down and developers produce less quantity at a lower price
@big_shrug@NeoLibBen you're simultaneously arguing that they don't care at all about the massive opportunity cost of lost rent (thousands of dollars a month) but will care about the tiny vacancy tax (<5% rent price generally) you're about to slap on -- the logic is very bad
@big_shrug@NeoLibBen not to mention if what you're saying is true about multimillionaire investors, they'll be owning properties en masse and losing $1000s a month on several properties at once. renting out a property takes no time - you give it to a property management company
@eigenrobot@halvorz@sgodofsk@cwage ya this is the real issue
iirc Chinese hypersonic anti carrier missile range is longer than fuel capacity of F-35
therefore aircraft carrier has to park further from shore than the bombing range of F-35
@sgodofsk@eigenrobot@halvorz@cwage mb i misunderstand here
but isn’t the point that the effective range of these aircraft is too small to be useful in certain scenarios?
@provinghuman on some level GPT-3 really is pretending: it’s intelligent, but it’s objective is to autoregress language. It’s not concerned with “true beliefs”. It’s only opinions are on how best to reproduce human written text
@alth0u@ProfoundProfit@RSandninja point being there’s an idiosyncratic political culture and also successful ruling 20 million says nothing about how it would work for a billion Chinese
would you agree?
@browserdotsys i feel you can basically tell by, when you hit the last rep (eg your final dumbbell row in the final set), could you do one more or not
if yes then weight may be too low
if not then that's real progress
broke: free trade with china is good as it will democratize them
woke: free trade with china is bad bc it empowered a dictatorship
bespoke: the US cultivated china as controlled opposition to enforce military discipline in the 2020-30s in order to stave off decadence at home
@_vivalapanda but I will say the tech elite make for exceptionally bad caretakers of their surroundings
autistically focused on global impact instead of getting on the MET board
@mattparlmer Airbnb product is slightly different than info ... a nomadic premium mediocre life I guess? Palatable to PMCs to pay the premium for the vibez
@mattparlmer yeah, more abstractly they’re paying for the Airbnb brand guarantee, which feels better than “I’m staying at a strangers place for a week”
@jeff82874662 more importantly i wanna have a convo with the abstention. wtf is that guy up to. my mans didnt read the report and he's just like "hmm i have no opinion"
one thing that makes me instantly suspicious of someones whole epistemic model is when they say
"oh x person could never have real success in business, discover the truth about Y scientific phenomenon, etc due to their ideology"
this is almost never true
in nearly every case there are once in a generation geniuses among your ideological outgroup
another cope is narrowly redefining ideology to exclude certain successful individuals
@DukakisDude@NicholasElodeon@inspireprag i get police notifs all the time for various assaults and stabbings that happen in the safeway parking lot 100 yards from where im staying in sf lol
@maxisawesome538@inspireprag depends on the neighbors
was tight knit with mine growing up, and ppl were very friendly about letting you borrow things, watching your house while you’re away, etc
@valueless_user@bull_leaper yea Rogan is hilarious and a great personality. Unfortunately he doesn’t have the right background to give Sir Roger Penrose a good shakedown
@alth0u@_AlastairX_ the problem comes when you want lex to really criticize their arguments and steelman the opposing perspective e.g. waymo vs tesla and he's kind of unable to
to b clear they are both 100000x more talented than me at interviewing and their lack of incisive questions will never hamper their commercial success
and they're pretty smart. they just can't go toe to toe with the worlds foremost experts and tend to back down easily
@eigenrobot lee kuan yew believed it was blindingly obvious that there would not be democracy in china anytime soon due to fundamental differences in political philosophy
@aharonfriedman pros of this: the casual listener gets to listen to George hotz explain what a hypervisor or ethereum gas limit is
cons of this: he is not able to really critically analyze any of his guests arguments or poke holes
1) second brain stuff is an improvement in technology and may actually augment your cognitive abilities like writing originally did so long ago
2) its not at a point where its going to represent a step change in your capabilities and you can easily compete with a moleskine
its insanely hard to see through the veil of Alphabet pravda propaganda factories. there will be a huge stock price reckoning when the chickens come home to roost and we see how far Tesla is ahead of Waymo
@Human9b6c432f this is one of their major future growth investments and I think failure to deliver after sinking this much cash on it will be very bad PR for them
@_vivalapanda SV people tend to be much better versed in classics and philosophy than literally any other line of work due to the intellectualizing of the field
“greed is good” is not enough for anyone here
@_vivalapanda yep
and to be honest I think the SSC/SV philosophy is very stale and running on its last legs and is still miles ahead of these disaffected polisci major status grifters
@gbrl_dick and this isn’t to say there’s any lack of vacuous pseudo philosophers *cough naval* traipsing about the SF twitter sphere and giving warmed over summaries of the stoics — but the literal only reason there’s even a market for them is the adjacent one for actual tech philosophy
@ne0agent1c there was a drama between her and a UW professor over something pretty silly (NIPS vs NeurIPS). She blocked everyone that liked UW prof’s tweets and is now tweeting her blocklist in a deranged thread
@jerry_dot_ai yeah and that’s exactly it — her intention is not to create a blocklist as this would be the worst possible way to do it. the point is to raise visibility of ppl to “re-educate”
@hardmaru@wileyinresearch would leaving some groundbreaking work in facial recognition unpublished prevent the use of these technologies? anyone with a gpu can reproduce these results. no -- instead, shine light on the work so folks can get started working on defenses
@aquariusacquah@vontallboy yeah it’s very sus to bring this out rn, he is clearly going joker mode & looking for punishment and got what he wanted on some level
@vontallboy@dcbfca@aquariusacquah point being Pedro should be picking his fights. Maybe tweeting this while ppl are weighing which of them to side with is not smart
@postpostpostr@alth0u government bought crops at a fixed price from the landowners who actually reap the benefits of harvest and not the serfs who labor on their fields lol
@NLRG_ behavioral economics: humans are less logical than homo economicus and we are here to study the ways
non ergodic decision theory: humans are more logical than homo economicus and we are here to study the ways
@jeff82874662 that's my cynical take.
less cynically: it lets major fossil fuel companies stay in business by attaching CCS which may slow down progress
even less cynically: its a bad investment for technical reasons, and won't work at scale
@jeff82874662 i also think there may be a degree of capture of progressive groups by solar and wind interests, which is no longer an insignificant industry and relies heavily on subsidy
@jeff82874662 you might be able to argue that it will prolong the death of fossil fuels
but the usual argument is that it feels shitty to send government R&D money to Exxon or BP or whoever who got us into this mess
@marx_knopfler@ornintovitu@roydanroy ya lol the space of NNs is barely tapped even now
plenty of low hanging fruit
in particular one downside of the graph attention approach is that you lose edge information, which can be made up for by the increased parallelism
common criticism of NLP transformers is that they’re blank slatist and don’t encode chompskian universal grammars
but there are in fact papers that do this and don’t perform nearly as well as the naive transformer
https://arxiv.org/abs/1503.00075
@alth0u yeah they roughly learn the parts of speech and such — don’t know if it can be said that they’re learning Chompsky’s grammar specifically
but there’s no real reason to present language in tree syntax https://x.com/tszzl/status/1339036332778143745
@3ibar hmm I mean sure but no model is truly “blank slate” — they all have some kind of inductive bias, as that’s the whole point. The positional tokens enforce linear order, but do not spoon feed any grammar to the model
dr. anima anandkumar was handed a literally unloseable mate-in-two position that she could've easily leveraged to gain more power at NeurIPS and elsewhere but by the grace of god she still fucked it up
@browserdotsys tbh i have no idea what happens next w NeurIPS but since it seems there's no clear public consensus one way or the other on who's in the wrong i am assuming they both get a slap on the wrist and nothing more
sincerely depressing tbh
love 2 watch some of the finest minds of our time tear each other apart in some of the most low stakes internecine squabbles i have ever seen
in the case of the facial recognition paper with suspicious Uyghur targeting — are we really working under the notion that an American publisher rejecting this out of ethical concerns will slow down the use in China?
this is the classic debate over “deplatforming” — I can easily argue that publishing dangerous new discoveries will gain the attention of security researchers who will try to build countermeasures and continue the arms race
Since this is an issue where we may never get an empirical answer re: effects of tampering with the publication ecology, it’s best to follow the scientific virtue: publish if it’s interesting.
@gbrl_dick public addresses became total PR hedging bullshit as soon as they realized that whatever they say is going to be leaked to the media instantly
@gbrl_dick it used to be possible to know what top brass was thinking during these Q&As bc they were fairly transparent about their various beefs. but they've gotten extremely adept at talking without saying anything
@gbrl_dick zuck and pichai gotta cater to us pampered hippy san francisco brats!
it seems like it used to be an excellent tool to keep everyone focused on the vision and keep loyalty high
but now the functionality has probably morphed to propaganda session / pseudo press briefing
@marx_knopfler yea I think that’s the unhappy compromise we’ve ended up at: we write an ethics section but it’s not actually counted towards anything so nobody spends more than 5 minutes on it. Not sure if it’s helping anything. Anima et al wanted it to be part of review process
GRRM set out to prove that lord of the rings, while excellent, had an unrealistically happy ending and that he could advance the genre by being more historically realistic & politically gritty
and quickly realized that history never ends and therefore neither can his books
@nosilverv@erin_nerung@CundillCapital my dude didn’t even ask an unreasonable question
euro guy was clearly just shocked he was being asked meaningful things over email and responded condescendingly “lesson one of dealing in Europe ...”
@InfosecIvy absolutely true, but how come they only start caring about the tax differential once the offices are closed? seems 2 me many people don’t value it that highly
@arnoblalam sure, but having leisure time is one of the highest crimes in neolib culture
think of new york -- you gotta at least maintain the appearance of being busy
FTR im just as frustrated with sf as everyone else ... I just think a lot of this is marketing for the venture capital complex pumping out remote work companies and shitposting on twitter with the Miami mayor ...
there’s actually nothing more satisfying than watching some tactless half autistic new money idiot own entire industries full of generational aristocrats
Peter Thiel’s public philosophy: humans are too susceptible to groupthink, isolate urself, avoid competition,
Peter thiel in practice: most of his wealth can be attributed to investing early in a global scale hivemind https://x.com/gbrl_dick/status/1339536707138404356