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@ZStan99 Surgical is good, n95 is better

@ZStan99 even simple surgical masks attenuate particles enough to prevent infections. Not as thorough ofc, but it’s hard to imagine that coughing into a surgical mask is as bad as coughing into the air. After all, why would surgeons use them?

@ZStan99 And I think I read something saying that heat is a pretty effective disinfectant for masks if absolutely necessary, but yeah replacing them is better

@complexifire @browserdotsys they should really overlay date of onset and date of positive test, like the original JAMA article from China did

@complexifire @browserdotsys

@ZStan99 imo the medical authorities in the US are wrong, either as a Noble Lie to defend the stockpile of masks from citizens, or they just don’t know

@ZStan99 All I know is that there’s only one clear and visible difference between how the Asian countries handled this virus and how we did it and it’s the masks

@ZStan99 The interesting thing is that Japan has not done much at all in terms of mitigation, but the mask usage is near 100% and that seems to be enough

@browserdotsys Who runs this website lol Why is it our best source of information

@jervoris @jdcmedlock Even if they’re under pressure, they will not fold under an e.g. 5x surge on medical mask prices. These commodity items are probably a distant last place in their list of costs

@JustJoshinYou13 @browserdotsys the asymptomatic period wouldn’t explain the decline in the middle of the epidemic, as there should be others coming out of their asymptomatic period. it seems that this chart is just nonsense; it’s a strangely chosen sub sample of total cases

@browserdotsys dot info ... amazing

@ZStan99 of course, i gotta vent to whoever will listen

This CDC chart that @elonmusk keeps linking to is a huge failure of sci comm. It's plotting cases per day of some arbitrary subsample of cases. There were more cases discovered in New York YESTERDAY than the entirety of cases covered by this whole chart

i don't even understand what value it provides. feels to me like CDC put it up just to confuse us

@AOCummies *thinks really hard* borders are .... based? free trade is ..... cringe?

@browserdotsys @complexifire I think I get it now. I believe these 4k cases are the ones who tested positive at a CDC lab. While the CDC testing/day stays relatively constant, more and more private labs spin up every day. If hospitals roughly split between all the labs, then the CDC lab numbers will go down

@similaralterity @elonmusk i think elon is just picking whichever chart lets him believe he can get back to work making cars as fast as possible

@orthonormalist is this because the CDC is only releasing data from tests that went through a CDC testing facility?

@NoamJStein @browserdotsys wait why is body temperature dropping lmao

@NoamJStein @browserdotsys seems related to obesity too. lots of weight loss pills just raise body temperature

@colinmort tech = bad

@_vivalapanda @NoamJStein @browserdotsys big if true organic systems optimize every last thing

@_vivalapanda @NoamJStein @browserdotsys might even be tied to early life brain development (i believe medulla controls body temp?)

@Noahpinion @alsoJMc and it was also a relatively harmless virus

@Noahpinion Hard times create strong men. Strong men create good times. Good times create weak men. And, weak men create hard times.

@AOCummies powerful stuff

@aquariusacquah ok lets say HCQ did work and trump endorsed on tv, some idiot goes and tries to consume it without checking up on dosage and timing. Would Trump still be at fault?

@aquariusacquah Suggesting that it might work isn’t the same as suggesting you should swallow unmeasured quantities of it

@similaralterity And people make fun of me for saying most political problems are technocratic

@s8mb aristocrats have always considered merchants to be dirty

Where is you god now, 🧦🧦🧦? https://x.com/razibkhan/status/1242396715086307328

@lastplace1414 😂

@thee_snek perhaps the good ones are the contrarians 🤔

@trumwill @CapitalistGhoul @ahardtospell same

day 12 of quarantine https://x.com/marathiMaharaja/status/1242566387438149641

i hope people en masse realize the quality of their education hasn’t declined much from being online and realize college is a scam https://x.com/Brrrrrpp/status/1242575078371594241

this is a good narrative complex to tap into if it gets people to stay home. every major religion has a societal script to go into “Great Plague” mode https://x.com/RadioFreeTom/status/1242576531748261889

@hoffmanofsteel about what in particular? general malaise at the state of things, or online learning specifically?

@hoffmanofsteel My entire college career I either watched classes online or didn’t attend lol. Not much would’ve changed for me. I can imagine others may feel different

@THOTCrime time for y’all to make a discord server anyway yea grad classes are more seminar-ey but the focus of grad school (assuming PhD track) for most ppl is producing research. It sucks if the labs close down but not expecting massive changes to their lifestyle otherwise

@THOTCrime Yes, it is good to admit that the state is first and foremost, fundamentally a protection racket that grows larger and larger since violence has economies of scale

@THOTCrime You may think I’m being coy but I’m perfectly serious

@DavidKoggan I want @Noahpinion to make a thoughtful podcast where he compares modern problems to various scifi books

@Berniewouldawon He’s choking up about someone losing their entire family you ghoul

@THOTCrime ehh idk about that one. larger states just fight larger wars. recommend reading this: https://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/handle/2027.42/51028/256.pdf

@THOTCrime true global domination produces a vast decrease in violence, that much is true. That’s why all the great periods of peace in history are named after some imperial power. Pax Romana, Pax Britannia, Pax Americana, etc

@THOTCrime and even then empires are pretty brutal to the people they colonize

@THOTCrime i believe that is due to vast material abundance and an era of american hegemony. state powers were very advanced in the 1914-1945 period and spent much of it ripping each other to shreds. it was not a peaceful time. a return to great power conflict will mean a return to violence

don't know why the markets are up today. what's the good news?

@jstalnaker1 seems to me the stimulus deal has been "close" for a while

@ne0agent1c seems like this news should clearly be a net negative in the long term

@aquariusacquah @ne0agent1c old ppl are profligate consumers of healthcare, and also the slow collapse of the healthcare sector can't be good for everyone else either

@ironically_edgy depends on the person imo

@ne0agent1c go to where? i mean even ignoring old people, the healthcare sector will undergo an ugly collapse as they're forced to switch every ward into either quarantine or covid ICU and that level of panic can't be good for anybody

@rstears1 the presser came after market close i believe

@NicholasElodeon @AOCummies @CapitalistGhoul @Noahpinion @NeoliberalFed @billpshort @maxdunat @_Jason_Dean_ @what_ntarnation @DavidKoggan @AspiringNeolib @thee_snek @ironically_edgy @inspireprag @man_ditch @ModLibChip I will bide my time slashing tariffs

Major plot hole that the country that invented and perfected information processing is unable to simply track every COVID case and their contacts

sorry for the Ada Lovelace erasure

@NeoliberalFed @NicholasElodeon @AOCummies @CapitalistGhoul @Noahpinion @billpshort @maxdunat @_Jason_Dean_ @what_ntarnation @DavidKoggan @AspiringNeolib @thee_snek @ironically_edgy @inspireprag @man_ditch @ModLibChip lmao >what did she mean by this

@Nick_Sherr @ironically_edgy my point is that the quality may go up or down subjectively but won’t be drastically different for anyone

@MiloJKing like any overperforming AI, the market went rogue and engineered this virus to buttress the case for its own existence

@NicholasElodeon the Star that burns twice as bright burns half as long 😭

@eigenrobot we need some good wartime propaganda

why in the hell would the dose matter? doesn't the viral load rapidly increase via self replication when it hits the body anyway? any virologists willing to sus this one out https://x.com/robinhanson/status/1242655704663691264

ok I see. this is kind of wild. we're flattening the social curve while our immune systems flatten the biological curve https://x.com/PeterKolchinsky/status/1239560639342727168?s=20

@aquariusacquah @hingeloss https://x.com/riddell_simon/status/1242672754630881282?s=20

@aquariusacquah @hingeloss the fda kinda already does this with the phase 1-3 approach but seems to not encode the concept of urgency/potential gain in a bayesian way

@thefaceberg we need a topwit breakdown

Question. An asset price is falling due to bad fundamentals. You know that if it drops below $x, the govt will bail it out such that it’s worth at least $x + 10. Does the market price ever reach $x? https://x.com/BigBreakfastLob/status/1242684442549686273

@BigBreakfastLob let’s say information is slowly being dispersed that the asset is probably worth $x-10

@PopulismUpdates still loling at Kyle Kulinski calling it Black Monday. And then there being multiple Black Monday’s the following few weeks

@BigBreakfastLob None of that stuff really matters at all for this argument. Assume that something is happening in that industry that makes the stock worth $x-10, like perhaps a global pandemic

I don’t think this crisis emphasizes the failure of free trade / offshoring as much as it does the lunacy of not stockpiling vast quantities of key pandemic defense commodities

@similaralterity @BigBreakfastLob policymakers don’t even hide it anymore. they transparently do whatever it takes to make price go up. If decisions are made based on previous day’s S&P close then you get into a logical loop like the one I described at the top

guys im starting to think ben bernanke may have been Bad

@OldDreyfusard @CaseyCho1942 the Usual suspects

@inspireprag Whatever you do don’t add me boss

“profiteering” is a term of art for people who don’t understand scarcity

@unblock_list what blocklists

@WokeDon Rampant QE in the 2011-2020 period has distorted the credit markets past the point of return and left us with no recourse in a true crisis like we’re in now

@Sharon_Kuruvila and reported

@hoffmanofsteel @WokeDon the Portuguese treasury bond yields were LOWER than US bond yields in 2017.

@neolibureaucrat @hoffmanofsteel @WokeDon My new thing is complaining about all central banks

All my FOMO has disappeared. I’m just lounging at home without guilt

bro u just posted corona https://x.com/anitasarkeesian/status/1242603564712620032

@ModLibChip Agree

@aquariusacquah the cross party grifting is strong

@powerbottomdad1 same2same

@jimpagels $100 a month rent, house all the homeless in A2

@LucioMM1 @Willyintheworld @RCAFDM this 10x official cases thing is nonsense. we empirically know that the hospitals are flooding, so to explain that fact and a low CFR we'd have to conclude that this is a *tremendously* fast spreading virus

@rsbcvet @RCAFDM sigmoidal curves are locally geometric until saturation lol. think about what you're saying

bro the dark net market vendors are emailing me about disruptions to their supply chains. It’s not looking good

@MattWalshBlog https://x.com/spectatorindex/status/1242980620893999104?s=20

I just want to know what Peter Thiel’s thinking about his boy Trump now. Was this part of the plan https://x.com/CNBC/status/1232375865054547968

@realjdburnett My instinct is to bothsides this but yea it’s overwhelmingly gop

@realjdburnett The CDC’s apparent inability to produce a simple nasopharyngeal test is not partisan though ... I don’t even know who to blame for that. That was our initial sin

@aquariusacquah @noguchilamp knowing no help is coming ensures that every company, every contract has the idea of existential sector level collapse in mind in the planning phase. companies should be prepared to scale down to minimal expenses and go into “stasis mode” at the drop of a hat

Who would win? 2019-nCoV (30,000 base pairs) homo sapiens (6 billion base pairs)

There are upwards of 2.5 x 10^17 nCoV virions reproducing inside human bodies right now

“ Where is the voice that said altered carbon would free us from the cells of our flesh? The visions that said we would be angels. “

he would’ve won 50 states if he had this beard https://x.com/lib_crusher/status/1242924739745787906

@similaralterity it’s ridiculously simple, it feels like the kindle product was built to encourage it lol

@Cullen_OK @similaralterity I don’t see why not, since the kindle is very low margin and they make all their money on ebook sales. They have this desktop app called “Send To Kindle” where you can just drag and drop files that immediately get sent over.

@Cullen_OK @similaralterity Old article, but the principle probably still holds https://www.forbes.com/sites/kellyclay/2012/10/12/amazon-confirms-it-makes-no-profit-on-kindles/

@richard_tull don’t think so. disaster preparedness would be an issue even if we had ton of mask factories on shore

@NicholasElodeon Puts

every time ninja streams he pulls in 3 orders of magnitude more viewers https://x.com/BoKnowsNews/status/1242958794843398154

@JonMIPol 100%

@aquariusacquah the Sinaloa cartel‘s newsletter on coronavirus was p informative

The humanist post-racial post-national ideology that dominated in the Obama years is all but gone now, I can’t even take it seriously anymore

VC “anthropic” neoliberalism is dead https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/obama-recommends-israeli-historian-s-sapiens-1.5436986

I don’t think many Silicon Valley secular rationalist types understand THEY were in power for 8 years

@quinnnorton A disease that kills 25% will tend the social fabric far more than nCov

@quinnnorton at some point, you don’t need to do be doing stats to viscerally understand the threat level of this thing. A disease comes around that kills a quarter of people in their prime, and I’m buying guns. True, these are fantasy epidemiological parameters but it’s a movie

@quinnnorton yeah maybe the zombie movies have gotten to me

fuck yes, best news I’ve heard all month https://x.com/LILBTHEBASEDGOD/status/1243264675724197888

γ means it’s an RL person larping as an economist https://x.com/HoodBiology/status/1243175320913657857

@NathanJRobinson Wanna bet buddy

it’s time to start watching a ton of Jordan Peterson and clean up my room

@aquariusacquah Siberian real estate booming rn

@Cullen_OK How much higher is it than in the West? Is it related to inflation rates or its idiosyncratic?

a good idea https://x.com/ZekeJMiller/status/1243238470904172544

@Tyler_The_Wise true

@selentelechia my 3rd grade teacher called in my parents to complain about all the above. parents were just confused lol but tbh i don’t see my time in grade school as unpleasant

@NikkiHaleyfan @CapitalistGhoul @NicholasElodeon @AOCummies @fedtanyl True facts Richard. Drew has been peddling dangerous conspiracies, and it’s time for him to go down

@AOCummies @NikkiHaleyfan @CapitalistGhoul @NicholasElodeon @fedtanyl blocked and reported

@AOCummies @NikkiHaleyfan @CapitalistGhoul @NicholasElodeon @fedtanyl Don’t believe this gaslighting for a second Richard. Drew told me in DMs that he hates Hillary Clinton and loves Richard Epstein

ok I’ll bite what the hell is “corona virus”?

lmao so ur telling me he was shackled before https://x.com/matthewstoller/status/1243211028911005697

@aquariusacquah blackpill St*ller

@aquariusacquah im still following so i must be one of the Chosen

@aquariusacquah just let it all out

this is why i've always loved martin shkreli. he's basically a r/WSB poaster who LARPed as a Machiavellian businessman

Ozymandias and all that

this is directly thanks to Martin Shrek https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-approves-first-generic-daraprim

engineers shouldn't be allowed to name anything every again

@eigenrobot if i become a covid survivor i will become incredibly smug

@eigenrobot my moda shipment is lost in time

@insipidwanker @eigenrobot true you can find recreationals irl but they'll be higher quality and cheaper in bulk if you buy online

@insipidwanker @eigenrobot I can’t speak for everybody but in my experience stuff you get online is always high quality as hell, if you have an eye for reputable sellers and that kind of thing

@_Jason_Dean_ Based and Organtradepilled

@_Jason_Dean_ On the same note, FDA should remove stipulation that purchased blood needs to be labeled as such

you were supposed to defeat the economically illiterate, not join them! https://x.com/AndrewYang/status/1243211651639390210

This moment has freed me politically to speak my mind. I'm not going to pretend that we have any allies. No mercy. The Toy Story franchise peaked with Toy Story 2 and Pixar continues to beat a dead horse :(

@NicholasElodeon @ironically_edgy @conureCC In the next few weeks we’re about to see that the US healthcare system is indeed the best in the world on the supply side. Will prove to have far more flex capacity than Italy. Employer healthcare is silly tho

@aquariusacquah deficit spending in crises has different economic implications than running deficits all the time

@CathyYoung63 @cvaldary @vox “expert opinion” usually ranges the entire space of possible viewpoints so vox's journalistic quality is indeed in question. there were epidemiologists at the time screaming into the void whose voices could’ve been signal boosted.

oNlY CHiNa cOuLD bUiLd HoSpItALs So FaSt https://x.com/Sarah_Boxer/status/1243591088411160576

@traditionrevolt their point is usually that the Chinese state is more competent and efficient, not sure if it’s private v public stuff

@jessicasunja @traditionrevolt great so the Americans are smarter and know how to utilize existing infrastructure

@StephenBuell2 @jessicasunja @traditionrevolt almost like they built it for the publicity

@Porkchop_EXP exactly, the chinese makeshift hospitals don't even have the "room" structure. it's just a series of beds at maximum density

follow me for earth shatteringly bad takes :)

@AOCummies #BelieveWomenWhenItsExpedient

@DylMeisner im bucking the trend by hating the Fed

@crdec123 @lindalin70 @NeoLibBen @Noahpinion How much is Xi paying you to hold water for him man? U doing this for free?

@inspireprag We all know it’s gonna be Bernard Sanders 😎

@inspireprag I’m rooting for whitmer but he probably already made promises to Klob Kamala etc. to secure the nom

@inspireprag https://x.com/Noahpinion/status/1243620445816893440?s=20

@eigenrobot 24 hours later: “alcohol appears to be miracle coronavirus cure ...”

@TheMuddySchmuck @bahstgwamt They expelled them as retaliation for us expelling their diplomats. In the eyes of the Chinese there’s no real distinction between Press and State

@mattparlmer What’s more, a VOX journalist

@koaleszenz Seems plausible, but if this is true Trump’s feud with gov whitmer doesn’t add up, nor does newfound coziness with Cuomo and all the supplies sent to New York, a deep blue state

@eigenrobot the progressive egregore is taking some nasty headshots during crisis times. will it lick its wounds or will it fight?

@eigenrobot sorry i directly disobeyed the no culture war prompt lol

@pelotom @eigenrobot someone’s thoughts from the other side https://x.com/CovfefeAnon/status/1238995414248013825

“postrats” for the most part seem to just be rationalists but ironically religious lol

@kar_nels lol no hospital room I’ve ever been in had a toilet

@eigenrobot oh man I need it

@import_jerbear there’s no halo that’s just a circle I drew

@Cullen_OK im still trying to wrap my mind around the total failure of the markets to react in time. It’s shaken my faith in lots of things lol

@UnhWut which ones the rats or postrats? tbh there are great non arrogant writers in both camps

@eigenrobot @Stu_de_Stael @granderojo @halvorz Bite the bullet! All self replicating information is alive!

@bahstgwamt @stealthbotmk1 @TheMuddySchmuck dunno if that’s true. if liberalism is about guaranteeing universal human rights, then it might be liberal to interfere in other countries that are infringing on those rights

@eigenrobot @Stu_de_Stael @granderojo @halvorz I mean it in the Shannon sense Messages in some medium, quantified by entropy. But that probably creates more rabbit holes than it closes

As the owner of a viral twete, I am now an expert in virology. Please come to me for covid takes

@Sharon_Kuruvila I think quite a few people get some of the aesthetic qualities of their politics from lotr tbh

@Sharon_Kuruvila just gotta examine how many sv companies are named after lotr stuff

@rplevy I think because it specifically describes a set of people who started by congregating around the lesswrong Yudkowsky-verse

@rplevy Yudkowsky is a powerful author, with a polemic fanfiction powerful enough to produce a movement and a counter-movement

@browserdotsys the coronavirus meme has been spreading much faster than the virus itself, which is probably not at all like 1918 was

@browserdotsys [and it’s still too slow]

@aesitbeau @HundredthIdiot It’s all real estate fam. Floor is what it is. Hospital is what it does.

@GreySmithereens fading embers probably

@GreySmithereens I honestly think both those communities died with the Obama years. They’re strangely related in my mind

@Tyler_The_Wise @BlueRepublik not entirely sure why that’s there lol

@razibkhan yes but this is more erotic and therefore must be published

@mattparlmer @zeynep skeptical of zeynep also ... she was a very bad actor during the Cambridge analytica debacle

“Contagion” CDC: - omnicompetent, finger in all pies - contact tracing back til the beginning of time - worst enemy is Jude law Real CDC: - can’t make a simple PCR test - gave up on tracing a week in - archenemy is their own bureaucracy

@kenziegtay all federal agencies that hype themselves up seem to share these properties

@calonyction @Pvelkovsky got it, and is it still feasible when we’re looking at clusters of thousands in a city/state? Is it doable without official confirmations via PCR?

@cozyneon @Sharon_Kuruvila Peter Thiel’s Mithril Cap, Palmer Luckey’s Anduril. Plus countless project names, internal memos, and this:

Now that I see that some solid chunk of this website is actually stanning the virus, I understand what Akira was about

@mattparlmer i don't really have faith that these regional conflicts spell disaster for the CCP or anything. even the best run states have protests from time to time.

@mattparlmer I only say this because it's become increasingly important to me that we don't fall into the alluring trap of thinking that liberalism is inevitable in china and that the people will revolt and demand freedom sooner or later. this facet of neoliberalism has been debunked

@hu__cares @mattparlmer remember when the CIA thought that the Cuban people would revolt and support them at the Bay of Pigs? it's wishful thinking

@hu__cares @mattparlmer “The common people pray for rain, healthy children, and a summer that never ends," Ser Jorah told her. "It is no matter to them if the high lords play their game of thrones, so long as they are left in peace."

@dhivehiscript true. a solid chunk of people crave the end of the world

@pelotom True in the case of masks

@LiberHomo1 this would be the area where it should be the strongest though. Tbh this is how a lot of “traditional medicine” that kinda sorta works is created: memetic evolution

@pelotom No doubt that the medical system fails quite a few people. I personally have no love for doctors (lots of bad associations). But think about the many cases where the difference between proper treatment and quackery is life or death.

@pelotom My grandfather tried to treat his throat pain with herbal remedies for a long time without telling anybody about his discomfort. When we found out we rushed him into the medical system and they found that it was cancer, still treatable. Imagine if he had waited any longer.

Thesis: patents make drug prices artificially high Antithesis: patents encourage competition and innovation Synthesis: govt should purchase drug patents at market price and set them free

We should encourage and incentivize mea culpas. Props to Kelsey https://x.com/KelseyTuoc/status/1243301678301888512

@Bram_Rochwerg here for the ratio

I wish people would bring this “flu kills more” utilitarian bravado to other areas of political life 🤔

republicans are now woke effective altruists with very bad utilitarian math

@aquariusacquah uninsurance in the US is a minuscule problem compared to public health deficiencies elsewhere,,

@aquariusacquah the real leftists are advocating for our tax streams to go straight to the African healthcare systems ;)

@aquariusacquah what are the actual stats for uninsurance deaths in the US? my utilitarian answer would be UCC, last dollar coverage is more efficient than first dollar coverage

@discourseloverr @aquariusacquah Hard utilitarian R caucus

@aquariusacquah I pretty much do think this. We should export much more of our industrial surplus to developing nations. This is why neolibs were so soft on China in the first place

@aquariusacquah I consider PNTR a resounding success just bc of how many peasants we lifted out of extreme poverty, despite “China shock” back home

@DylMeisner false

@NeoLibBen It’s kind of a one sided relationship. GM has no bargaining power in that transaction

@nectarina12 Noah used to be a pretty smart dude. but the Discourse melted his brain out of his ears.

feelin a lot of schadenfraude rn bc my friends with more exciting lives than mine aren’t posting cool travel pics on insta 😎

@Noahpinion @mattparlmer the last part is more important than the first part tbh. HHS-(Medicare+Medicaid) has a yearly budget of $100 billion

@Noahpinion @mattparlmer This is gonna sound like a VC-truism but the problem has never been funds, rather it’s the speed of iteration

we are all NEETs on this blessed day

@Noahpinion @mattparlmer Of course, relative autonomy is good. No more federal agency paycaps

@Noahpinion @mattparlmer Pretty much every country with a functional bureaucracy has no federal paycaps. You aren’t going to steal good scientists/engineers from industry if you don’t have competitive pay.

@Noahpinion @mattparlmer Government could probably accomplish a lot more with *less* funds without the caps

@mattparlmer @Noahpinion It’s a damn shame that graduating college seniors almost never consider government work unless they’re strongly ideologically inclined. The *maximum* pay for federal employees is lower than the new grad pay at google/fb

PHOTOS TAKEN MOMENTS BEFORE DISASTER

@mattparlmer @Noahpinion the labor intensive bureaucracies may benefit the most from removing paycaps. effective management is important and uncommon. there's a reason why industry forks over all that money to middle managers

@mattparlmer @Noahpinion This is also why we should be violently allergic to “jobs guarantees”

there's currently a mass transfer of employees from low margin companies to high margin ones https://candor.co/hiring-freezes/

@ansells_cow only half joking. different rules apply to startups.

@wesyang I believed it only *after* seeing the Asian countries’ curves. Still not good honestly

@Sharon_Kuruvila God is a tsundere

@averykimball http://coronatoken.org

@DylMeisner Here’s a more nuanced take: it is one of the best things America ever did to help pull a billion peasants out of poverty. But now we must look for an exit and containment strategy to ensure the survival of the liberal world.

the Yeerks took the gift of "Seerow's Kindness" and used it to spawn an imperial order, quickly spreading across the galaxy and enslaving many planets full of intelligent life. Thus began the Andalite-Yeerk wars, and Seerow went down as the greatest fool of Andalite history. 3/

"Seerow's Kindness" is an ironic moniker: it refers to a moment in the animorphs' mythos where a member of a dominant, advanced alien race ("Andalites") granted incredible technologies to aid a suffering species ("Yeerks") on a different planet. 2/

any of u read animorphs as a kid? straight up one of the best kids series of all time. operatic gritty scifi that pulls no punches. one of the key pieces of the Animorph's mythology was an event called "Seerow's Kindness" 1/ https://x.com/DylMeisner/status/1244061521937723393

the US committed a similar Kindness with PNTR & opening China. We hoped that China would prosper, liberalize, and join the West, but instead we created a tremendous ethno-imperial power whose goals are fundamentally inimical to the US led world order. 6/

Seerow's Kindness alludes to a tragedy at the heart of the game theory of liberal civilizations. We are moral universalists: we feel that all humans deserve the material well-being that has come to us. But our most well-meaning interventions can empower greater evils. 5/

the Andalite "hawks" encoded in their law that another alien species must never be helped no matter how much they were suffering, figuring that they couldn't be trusted with their aid. This sets the basis for much of the story. 4/

Side note: Kindness is not to be interpreted as a retelling of the "white man's burden". We in the West have profited off of *actual* colonial orders in the past, and have come closer than any other nation by miles to a post-racial order. 9/

Of course real world liberal civs are motivated also by their hunger for cheap labor, and have colonial histories they're trying to amend. But the fundamental liberal hope is that even our enemies must be humanized and helped, and that in bulk our Kindness won't go awry. 8/

In the Animorphsverse, the Yeerks are defeated through a *second* kindness, where a dying Andalite "dove" bestows godlike technologies on a handful of humans. In the context of the series, this reflects a fundamental optimism about sentient life. successes outweigh failures. 8/

We in the West also try our damndest to supply humanitarian aid to the North Koreans even if it furthers the DPRK regime's own interests. ditto Cuba and Iran in the obama years. it's entirely possible that some of our Kindnesses will long-term lead to more harm than "good". 7/

Maybe as a direct influence of the scifi I read as a kid, I too share the liberal optimism that as far as Kindnesses go, our successes will outweigh our failures. Nixon and Seerow will both be redeemed. 11/11

I don't really have a lesson or a policy prescription to come out of this, other than that the utilitarian math of "Kindnesses" is very hard indeed. Our assumptions must be updated all the time. It seems now would be a good time to switch from China doves to China hawks. 10/

@Teleonomic @nectarina12 honestly don't like his econ takes anymore. do you remember when his phd advisor roasted him on twitter lol? he called one of his bloomberg articles about macro theory as nonsense. not saying it's authoritative, but plenty of economist complain about his takes

@eigenrobot Damnit applegate

@liminal_warmth i've been afraid to read this for a while tbh. "rationalist" lit often comes off as rly smug. is it different than HPMOR in that regard?

@liminal_warmth fuck it, i'm reading it tomorrow

alright sorry for the seriousposting. back to the regularly scheduled shitposts

@AOCummies data privacy is a completely overrated nonsense concern :)

@eigenrobot honestly tho. There’s only two genres of fiction that approach the game theory of civilization: sci fi and spy thrillers

@AOCummies Privacy from governments is not as big a deal as ppl say, and privacy from companies is nbd at all

@dhivehiscript @eigenrobot which Heinlein is that ?

@marthsshinedair I think one of the key things about the series, especially the book “Visser”, was that yeerks are indeed people. They aren’t incapable of coexisting with other peoples, unlike (for example) the LOTR orcs. They’re rehabilitated into society at the end of the series.

@marthsshinedair And yes, I agree that poor and desperate people of a failing state are very dangerous for global security, but imo China is scarier

@tim_ber_wind no doubt we wanted to ply apart the Sino-Soviet alliance at the time, but it’s clear that that alliance was falling apart on its own. China wasn’t willing to be first mate in the communist order. Generations of China doves afterwards have ensured our close cooperation

We regret to inform you that coronavirus has been a Juul marketing campaign https://x.com/KlausKblog/status/1242995506118307840

https://x.com/whatif4267/status/1244178042202787841?s=21 https://t.co/fNIvgfMPiV

@WhatIf4267 perfect

@marthsshinedair agreed

@DukakisDude yeah it straight up doesn’t matter lol. kids on the feed complaining bc they’re all sons or daughters of wealthy families

@DanielDayJewish @kilovh You’rs is the more important of the two lessons

@collinofzion I have an uncanny memory for things I read before I had access to the internet 😂. The web fried my brain. I also looked some stuff up to double check

@ask_ourself opening up trade with Cuba provides very little benefit for us but huge benefits for Cuba.

@ElskanTriumph Unfortunately these bits of lore are distributed across 70 books, but perhaps Hork-Bajir chronicles holds the brunt of it

@metadiogenes Graph doesn’t tell the whole story https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economic-issues-watch/growing-gap-between-real-wages-and-labor-productivity

@RCAFDM @Trent_mcbride if cumulative deaths follows a sigmoidal curve, then deaths per day should be a bell curve. Bell curves are not exponential even in the early parts, right? So why is there a straight line on the log part?

@browserdotsys @RCAFDM @Trent_mcbride damn I had no idea

@IRHotTakes I laugh at nearly all of his tweets. Whatever else you wanna say about him, the man is funny

@koaleszenz Agreed https://x.com/tszzl/status/1244157864022888450?s=20

@koaleszenz Reading it right now!

@Noahpinion @Usama_Polani @ikuziemko @mordroberon And if so, is there a vaccine for SARS that we could deploy quickly?

looks like I triggered the tankies https://t.co/SVLaE9fChp

Sure bb, just admit you hate liberals more than you hate the actual fascists in China https://x.com/MissPavIichenko/status/1244068105673941000

@aquariusacquah this isn’t really the flex you think it is. real estate is real estate. Who cares if you build a new building or not? Sure, the CCP can recruit ten thousand wageslaves and build a shitty warehouse that leaks, caves in, etc. in a few days time. I don’t rly care

@eigenrobot There is no pastime like bullying journos

@StephenBuell2 the wealthy in the US are never cash-rich. mostly, it hurts drug dealers and middle class savings lol

@thee_snek same. my body finally adjusted to the high cortisol levels and now the stress isn't beating the boredom

"The first story I ever heard about immunity was told to me by my father, a doctor, when I was very young. It was the myth of Achilles, whose mother tried to make him immortal."

@Sharon_Kuruvila lol i'm betting this is a journo

@Chris_arnade fine

@ZStan99 easy to editorialize your intentions posthoc in a book. i've read about a dozen ex-wall streeters doing the same thing

@ZStan99 it seems to be a part of the game

@ReginaldPGrant @Chris_arnade I am a China hawk now. but nothing you can say will erase the fact that free trade with china lifted a billion people out of extreme poverty. it's time now for a China exit strategy and rejoining TPP

@PittLabs lmao

@aquariusacquah i mean i always assume tankies and nationalists are either useful idiots or part of the grift somehow. the JD Vance / Chris Arande narrative of the 2016 election has completely fallen apart. Bernie Sanders lost ground.

@Chris_arnade @ReginaldPGrant this is almost always a populist scam targeted for your "front row" audiences. raise environmental & labor trade regulation to a level where poor nations can't actually comply and keep all the manufacturing at home

@Chris_arnade @ReginaldPGrant i don't know your position on TPP but I'm guessing you were against it, despite highly progressive labor & environmental clauses

@ReginaldPGrant @Chris_arnade you're arguing against a strawman. nobody denies that PNTR with china hasn't produced a liberal East Asian utopia. it is time to weigh those assumptions again.

@jdcmedlock if total medical costs increase, how is it an inefficient outcome for premiums to increase?

@aquariusacquah @dhivehiscript i haven't read his book. I read JD Vance's book and assumed it was somewhat similar

@peaktransit Helen is spitting straight facts

@nectarina12 ,,, welcome to digital georgism

@inspireprag no ... it can’t be

@browserdotsys @RCAFDM @Trent_mcbride ERF function looks strangely similar

@Neoavatara except in China I expect at home deaths to be sizable. Wouldn’t expect that in Italy

Throw data privacy out the window. Please track and trace peoples phones

@eigenrobot Been reading a ton of horror stories on medical residents subreddit. They’re more expendable than actual physicians, so treated much worse https://www.reddit.com/r/Residency/

Me spending a few grand on Uber Eats

@CapitalistGhoul honestly the hard part would be the drinks

@NicholasElodeon wtf is a left Neolib vs a socdem. Somethings gotta be done to these miscreants profaning Milton Friedman’s name. The blessed band of neoliberals is headed by based Lincicome now. We no longer live in fear

@coherentstates to stop saying simp would be a total simp move 😔

All sorts of brain drain from the east coast to the west https://x.com/RelentlessYapp/status/1244510880479334401

@NicholasElodeon Good luck brother

@eigenrobot this is probably a good idea tho lol. Wish the US was on this

@eigenrobot in China they were incenting ppl to get tested. Small prize for negative test, big prize for positive. Able to gather data effectively this way. However if you make the prize Too Big ppl may start throwing covid parties lol

@ironically_edgy Why don’t you go mask off and put the rose in ur screen name

imagine thinking this is a good argument. “they were correct because of SELF INTEREST. HOW AWFUL” https://x.com/isosteph/status/1243794537740251136

I am hearing that Jonas Salk won quite a bit of recognition for his contributions. we should stop vaccinating for Polio bc it is Impure

@eigenrobot gonna push back a lil and say this: Bill Gates is a face of the “Davos class”. And he’s been on the pandemic train long before it was cool. It seems to me that internecine squabbling among that class has not left the brightest in charge of the loudest speakers

@eigenrobot Many of the technocratic Davos elite are indeed nerds. The tech industry has significant influence among their ranks. It’s funny to think of this but Obama was essentially just a VC bro. The guy read Sapiens like all the other good lil Tech CEOs

@eigenrobot It seems to me there are two separate processes happening: the degradation of press, and the degradation of government. The first is still ruled by “elites”, but the second has in fact moved into the hands of populists.

“bro u just posted corona” https://x.com/wongmjane/status/1244687530189967360

@eigenrobot @matthew_d_green No, but FB and Goog definitely hollowed out the media industry. They were ad monopolists before, and all of a sudden had to compete with data-rich behemoths

@eigenrobot @matthew_d_green imo the failure of media has led to a cascade of other failures

@_Jason_Dean_ Same

@_Jason_Dean_ We know for a fact that all the American companies with factories in China are opening up, so there’s no doubt that the epidemic is clear. It’s less clear if they lied about the peak statistics during the epidemic but I suspect no

@gio_jmartinez @_Jason_Dean_ Not a matter of depravity. You have to ask what’s in their self interest

@Rationalbot @EliSennesh @eigenrobot @matthew_d_green i'm largely unsympathetic to complaints about the gig economy b.c. they usually display a total misunderstanding of supply and demand.

@Rationalbot @EliSennesh @eigenrobot @matthew_d_green the instacart employees in most metros are being paid wages well above "market price" due to influx of VC money

@eigenrobot @Rationalbot @EliSennesh @matthew_d_green low wage workers had precarious lives even before the rise of the gig economy. it's mostly a headfake to shift blame onto tech companies somehow. imo important steps are to decouple healthcare from employment (1) and have a robust welfare state (2)

@eigenrobot @Rationalbot @EliSennesh @matthew_d_green if you ever browse the uber driver subreddits they all hate the AB5 stuff. they'd rather be considered contractors than employees due to the freedom it gives them.

@DaanVanDenHam2 @eigenrobot @matthew_d_green woke af

@JesseLucasSaga @eigenrobot @Rationalbot @EliSennesh @matthew_d_green i think this narrative is highly reductive. for example, interstate migration rates are at all-time record lows. why aren't people moving out of dilapidated industrial towns to find opportunity elsewhere? my answer is "zoning law"

@JesseLucasSaga @eigenrobot @Rationalbot @EliSennesh @matthew_d_green last year's econ nobel prize winners say that it's because poor ppl value their location far more than rich people and dislike moving. my question is, why now? why did folks decide to give up on moving for opportunity?

@JesseLucasSaga @eigenrobot @Rationalbot @EliSennesh @matthew_d_green for example, major californian metros are creating tons of service-sector low skill jobs. but, there is a massive outflow of actual low wage laborers due to stark living costs. if SF was actually livable, it would employ 5x the current number of low wage workers

@JesseLucasSaga @eigenrobot @Rationalbot @EliSennesh @matthew_d_green you can't easily move service sector jobs like you can move industrial jobs. for example, if you need to hire a ton of fast food workers for a booming tech town, you can't hire fast food workers in Ohio. ditto uber drivers, home mechanics, etc. etc.

@JesseLucasSaga @eigenrobot @Rationalbot @EliSennesh @matthew_d_green we can make chasing opportunity less expensive, like it was 50 years ago. all we have to do is cut through years of zoning regulation and encourage dense cities

@JesseLucasSaga @eigenrobot @Rationalbot @EliSennesh @matthew_d_green

@JesseLucasSaga @eigenrobot @Rationalbot @EliSennesh @matthew_d_green so what do you propose? b.c. those jobs are never coming back. some combination of offshoring and automation has removed them, and I doubt that genie is being put back in the bottle.

@JesseLucasSaga @eigenrobot @Rationalbot @EliSennesh @matthew_d_green even if we distance ourselves from China, there's another China by the name of India that's eager to takeover.

@_Jason_Dean_ yep. as long as the Rs get to put their name on it, they're happy

@_Jason_Dean_ I swear democrats could pass a nice healthcare bill and call it "TrumpCare" and it'll just go into law

@NikkiHaleyfan @_Jason_Dean_ american populism was a noble tradition but I think there was a serious shift away from the elites with GB II and an avalanche after Trump

@traditionrevolt @powerbottomdad1 I think you can be a part of the intelligentsia and not have any real power.

@traditionrevolt @powerbottomdad1 Obama was a law school professor, wouldn't you say he was an 'intellectual' and an 'elite'? He was in power for 8 years

@traditionrevolt @powerbottomdad1 He had a coherent ideology. It’s true that his personal charisma was key to his victory but imo that doesn’t detract at all from his “elitehood” lol Bring in more charismatic high performing elites!

@ne0liberal @man_ditch the PSZ-Warren intellectual force is just populism for Vox readers. Nothing coherent there at all

Both political parties should learn the lessons of the past few years and strictly limit who gets to run in their party primaries. Only boring old lawyers taking money from the worlds top corporations from now on

If I am even slightly excited about the presidential election, it’s already gone wrong

@eigenrobot I honestly don’t think being Good is a valuable metric for people in power. Good men are often bad leaders. See Jimmy Carter. LBJ on the other hand was kind of a dick but an excellent president

@eigenrobot The point of democracy is to align the interests of ruthless geniuses with the needs of the people. I don’t remember who said this but leaders are forced to make trolley problem decisions everyday that would reduce most of us to dust

@eigenrobot true. there's a bit of a coordination problem. a primary is likely to output a candidate who is better able to win the GE than the party's own pick. but they will also stray further from the aims of the party elites. If 1 party decides to do primaries, the other must follow

@eigenrobot I think we're agreeing tho Party does primaries b.c. they think the process outputs a candidate more likely to WIN, even if they stray further from their aims

@eigenrobot these are all counterfactuals so i have no way of proving my claim, but thats just my intuition

@AOCummies Both at once somehow

.@realDonaldTrump please ban tiktok

@Rationalbot what do you mean? who’s showing contempt?

@inspireprag It’s p funny ngl

@ne0liberal i'm willing to make a Faustian bargain with neoliberal wine moms in exchange for charter schools, carbon taxes, free trade

@DaSkrubKing @CliveDavies98 ok simp

@browserdotsys you best pick up either hiking, biking, or rock climbing as a hobby

this is the tier of boringness we need https://x.com/CoryBooker/status/1244453500848869384?s=20

@AlanMCole density is a factor, but not a big one.

@NamithVorakkara the rise of rupi kaur directly caused the decline of the West

@_Jason_Dean_ @NicholasElodeon based

@jdcmedlock last dollar coverage for both should be based on ability to pay :)

@jdcmedlock also the hot take here is that when fighting infectious diseases, not quarantining someone has severe negative externalities.

@LoicTheStoic Godzilla (2013). Captain America: Civil War. I’m not gonna say some basic shit like Birdemic. I enjoyed birdemic way better than the two I mentioned

@LoicTheStoic Nothing worse than a high budget mediocre movie

@trevlevtweets funnily enough you can use his dictat to prove that taxation is theft

@elonmusk @MarsMeditation @RationalEtienne @PPathole you’ve been saying this garbage for weeks lol

@ryxcommar @gztstatistics You sound like Tanenbaum telling Torvalds he’d give him an F. If it works for the organization it’s good code

@BigBreakfastLob @elonmusk @MarsMeditation @RationalEtienne @PPathole I think he’s been a pretty great risk taker all things considered. Started two fabulous companies in horrible industries. But he’s been dead wrong on the corona stuff

@_alex_joshua @neolibJock @AOCummies She captured globe twitter’s imagination in ways I can’t easily explain

@mattparlmer 4x maximizing is my only belief

@aquariusacquah @tom_c_strand BTC is anticorrelated with gold, which is great b.c. it owns all the rothbardians. if 'a flight to stability' causes sell pressure on bitcoin, it basically confirms what every reasonable person has been thinking, that it's a speculative asset class and not currency

@aquariusacquah @realDonaldTrump i think tiktok is hilarious tbh i'm mostly joking. but it would be a blow to china. I don't see why we should allow their social media companies inside our borders when they don't do the same

@martin509984 @LoicTheStoic yes i can buddy

It’s not a noble lie. Never attribute to malice what can be attributed to ignorance. The CDC guidelines have been the same for *years*, before there was any sort of mask shortage. They just don’t know. https://x.com/webdevMason/status/1244790665038295040

@generativist not sure this is completely true, because UberEats is offering completely free shipping for me. that tells me demand has somehow fallen for whatever reason. unless it's a marketing ploy?

@generativist I think this "living under the API" thing is net good for efficiency. It should absolutely be the case that we should be able to scale up certain real world operations based on supply and demand. These companies should scale up hazard pay if they want supply and demand to meet

and it's very clear what the failure mode they fell into is. There aren't any high powered RCT's proving the effectiveness of masks in a pandemic setting. But absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.

@Aelkus @generativist with the current level of unemployment insurance, the hazard pay will have to be very high indeed to get the Instacart and UberEats people actually working.

@Aelkus @generativist since demand is also purportedly rising, this isn't necessarily a bad thing for the market maker. High oil prices mean oil gas stations make a killing. High interest rates mean banks make a killing.

@NikkiHaleyfan Based

@similaralterity @TheAgeofShoddy I think, for example, the lawyers that comprise the political elite did indeed have to work to build their lawsuits. These are exercises in formal logic and not really “tawking” in the twitterati sense. The Press elite are a different story

@similaralterity @TheAgeofShoddy The press have always been tawkers of the highest order. As ratatouille puts it, “the bitter truth we critics must face is that, in the grand scheme of things, the average piece of junk is probably more meaningful than our criticism designating it so.”

the 5000 follower cap sucks ass ... making me treat every follow as a valuable resource. just let me follow everyone and let the timeline algorithm do its magic!!!

i have to do this thing where i stochastically click on a tweet i hate, see which of the people i'm following liked it, and unfollow them lmao

@AlexGodofsky Civ 5 BNW was the peak 😌 Don’t @ me

@jdcmedlock Monopoly distribution center that, *checks notes*, controls 5% of US retail sales, half that of Walmart

@jdcmedlock I see your point though. Similar online marketplaces could be run by government, and in fact are in places like Taiwan

@Sharon_Kuruvila Because he owned some libs

Mmmmmhmmmm

Which do you prefer, so I can purge my followers 😎?

@aquariusacquah genuinely no clue

@NikkiHaleyfan I see Richard is simping now

the virgin “updating my priors” vs the chad “changing my mind”

@Cullen_OK 10,000 pages of rationalist discourse destroyed by this simple question: where do priors come from?

"Where Do Priors Come From" - the greatest thread in the history of lesswrong, locked by @ESYudkowsky after 12,239 pages of heated debate,

@pupperio She’s very young, I’d cut her some slack. Mostly just teasing w this post

in tech companies you often have to pass an Autism Checkpoint to really bond with your coworkers

@halvorz anything coherent is necessarily totalitarian

@NikkiHaleyfan Based

take me back to when history was over https://x.com/olivertraldi/status/1244745617542430727

@ne0liberal I WILL NOT EAT BUGS I WILL NOT LIVE IN A POD

@guacamolebio is diagnosis really a significant problem though? a doctor can easily make the judgement the NN would make and write down “suspected COVID”

@StephenBuell2 @guacamolebio Expensive and long. Requires complicated equipment. You might be able to rig this aural thing up at home

@eigenrobot “The System was Blinking Red” https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/03/25/coronavirus-worst-intelligence-failure-us-history-covid-19/

@AOCummies Prophetic

California is looking to do a “hard fork” https://x.com/GavinNewsom/status/1245158370824216576

@similaralterity This is the most interesting possible timeline

@similaralterity crises tend to accelerate everything

@Noahpinion past the peak is doubtful if they don’t start test and trace rn

@_vivalapanda @ne0liberal I bought $BYND at IPO. Then I actually went to a store and bought a beyond burger. It was so awful that I immediately sold my stock lol

@TetraspaceAdmn wrongo

@TetraspaceAdmn Futarchy is an AGI fantasy. Handing over the reins to a super intelligence

this has got some real dragon of chaos energy https://x.com/OperatorMaid/status/1245154580054319105

v jelly reading other people's accounts of tripping bc tbh acid hates me. last I tripped, I basically end up mainlining concentrated nihilism. Like sticking my tongue on the cosmic flagpole. it gave me the Ozymandiaspill: man proposes and god disposes.

@DukakisDude I think that’s just what it was like in medieval Europe? 🤔 Constant plagues and whatnot, mostly bucolic living with a few “cities” that only have a few thousand people

the thing I see most often w other ppls accounts is acid overclocking the pattern recognition / meaning making functions of their brain. Everywhere they look they see new meaning. For me, everything became devoid of meaning. Like Sartre's Nausea.

@neolibgraham ngl it is scary. And it lasts an uncomfortably long time. It can be life affirming or it can be life denying. Its a gamble

@StephenRowe0 Since the epidemic is over in China, you would expect the death:cases ratio to be higher. Elsewhere, there are ongoing cases that will eventually result in a death

@DavidKoggan What happened?

@DavidKoggan The drama is good and mostly manufactured, we will come out stronger

@DavidKoggan I don’t blame her tbh, she’s pretty young and I think being Too Online has rotted her brain a bit. She seemed nice at first and willing to engage with all kinds of ppl, which is what pol twitter is all about in the first place.

@DavidKoggan It’s v easy to get way too caught up in twitter and start taking this shit seriously. Just have to keep in mind that most of us are completely powerless shitposters lol

@DavidKoggan When you’re online 24/7, there’s no sense kidding yourself that you’re being productive tbh. It’s not mild escapism at that point, it’s your whole world. I’m guilty of this too

@DavidKoggan Real self reflection hours

@DavidKoggan @NicholasElodeon because they liked her account lol that’s all

@TrayBridgewater Pierre Delecto 😌

hold on are we just gonna forget how the Midwest polls in 2016 were just wrong In every which way https://x.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1245399629782560768

@nseth3 I worked hard to build those meaning structures :/

@BWithFreedom Do UCCs require price setting?

what the fuck man apparently in 2016 I bet a friend $100 that there would be no “significant rise in all cause mortality during the trump administration”

@mattparlmer the ringworld is unstable!

@marathiMaharaja smh ... you were ahead of your time

@Neil_Jetter nope

@powerbottomdad1 same that shit takes forever. Someone needs to invent 1 hour acid

@noahopinion Fkn Fatima

@wannabegroncho how tf is this possible

@wannabegroncho oh I see, it’s because of reduction under traffic? Wild

@realjdburnett Agreed. They’re afraid of getting hit with the big ol TDS

@DemSocialists nice

@koaleszenz noooo

twetes that didn’t age well https://x.com/tszzl/status/1136203524507938822

@noahopinion bout to cash that check in Hell

@eigenrobot we need to find the third fellow and give them an award

@eigenrobot theres clearly a vast gradation of quality even among self-styled experts. Im sure there are many who’ve called nearly everything that's happened. the problem becomes how to identify these folks beyond just degrees and titles

@eigenrobot my go to answer in January would just have been “prediction markets” but the damn DJI didn’t move until late feb

@eigenrobot tbh the market malfunction has been the most alarming thing for me. the VIX didn’t even start ticking up until late feb! A rational market would’ve at least predicted *uncertainty* long before that

@neolibureaucrat @eigenrobot a perfectly foresighted market would’ve known in advance that a pandemic and closures were coming. Prices would plummet in January. An acceptably rational market would have seen slightly depressed prices and implied volatility increase to account for pandemic risk

@FrancoLMij nah it’s been pretty bad. It started with the bad CDC test kits and spiraled from there

@neolibureaucrat @eigenrobot Never http://wisdomofcrowds.blogspot.com/2009/12/stock-market-reaction-to-challenger.html

@neolibureaucrat @eigenrobot http://sfb649.wiwi.hu-berlin.de/papers/pdf/SFB649DP2012-067.pdf

@neolibureaucrat @eigenrobot The robin Hanson-pill

@neolibureaucrat @eigenrobot https://x.com/MiloJKing/status/1239925480566018049

@neolibureaucrat @eigenrobot The responsibility for Columbia was not public info either tho. Prices at their best should aggregate knowledge from the best informed market participants

@neolibureaucrat @eigenrobot this but unironically https://x.com/KANTBOT20K/status/1243227646105976832

@neolibureaucrat probably wouldn’t trust the last few days worth of data, there’ll always be corrections

@neolibureaucrat @eigenrobot isn’t the total quarantine of 800 million Chinese folks a Very Public Event?

@FrancoLMij much of the west basically relies on us to give them guidance for pandemic response. See the responses of Singapore and Taiwan for what an admirable pandemic policy looks like

@neolibureaucrat @eigenrobot every decision the Chinese government made imo was an Event, chock full of information about how serious this virus is

@AsInMarx explain?

@mechanicalmonk1 @averykimball The shape and structure of a neural net is its prior. A convolutional net has a prior for 2d spatial patterns. A transformer has a prior for word inter-relations. So, the priors are chosen by the researcher instead of evolution

@nseth3 that’s just the thing though. As far as I’m concerned, there is no objective meaning. Meaning is mostly socialized in and self built. What use is it toppling one variety and building another?

@koaleszenz unironically tho what’s the latest on abiogenesis and the creation of RNA

@AristotleMa @eigenrobot I hate to be this guy but the confidence interval should indeed look huge on a linear scale. Nothing else is reasonable.

amazing to me that we employed PRISM and other hilariously authoritarian responses to 9/11 but when it comes to a disease that's gonna kill a hundred times more people, we're all of a sudden hung up about anonymizing contact tracing https://techcrunch.com/2020/03/29/test-and-trace-with-apple-and-google/

i think the vast majority of us are willing to give up a little bit of privacy to be able to go outside again

i'm also unwilling to believe that Uncle Sam doesn't already know my exact location :)

@entirelyuseles @marathiMaharaja false

@PereGrimmer @suvyboy @__ice9 Unemployment boutta get people on a diet

@kar_nels me too

@jdcmedlock @surlyurbanist I don’t understand their logic at all ... won’t people use the same quantity of total toilet paper

@jdcmedlock @surlyurbanist I figured it was something like this, but also thought it should be easy to switch from one sales modality to the other

@_n_t_o_n_i_o @eigenrobot Inshallah

@rivatez Rothbardians pls go Even Milton Friedman supported central banks

@NoblePublius Yeah, if anything, I’m even more for decentralization now

love 2 impress leftists by saying that disadvantaged groups are indeed at a disadvantage

@ne0agent1c @rivatez what insults and or name calls did I use here

@ne0agent1c @rivatez I think you’re projecting bc I don’t think that Rothbard is insane. He’s just a prominent member of the Austrian school, like Mises

My god

@ne0liberal there is an editorial line that they push, don't be naive. a Vox 'overton window' so to speak

@ne0liberal who cares which individual is making the decision? Is this the 'just following orders' argument?

@Cullen_OK @ne0liberal maybe on twitter, which is *something* I guess https://x.com/PereGrimmer/status/1245843554762555392

@Cullen_OK @ne0liberal overall folks on twitter make a big deal about Vox getting stuff wrong for the same reason that Trump complains about CNN a lot ... because they read it / watch it. Vox is relatively powerless in this game, I agree

@Cullen_OK @ne0liberal I think this is a bit of a feint b.c. even among experts there was vast disagreement about how severe this might be. Choosing which experts to defer to is itself a editorial decision that we can question. Balaji documents here: https://x.com/balajis/status/1228447950084493315?s=20

@jachaseyoung Some say that we are all participating in Drew's grand experiment

@nectarina12 morale is ticking up as we speak

@PereGrimmer clearly not rigged against the intelligent. just seems that it also requires conscientiousness. Getting a good class grade is an ongoing project that requires time, dedication, and responsibility. an SAT is finished in three hours

@Bugs_Meany @varun_santhanam @ne0liberal 99% of evil in this world exists because of systems level failures, where no one organism in a complex ecosystem knows the crimes the system as a whole is committing. See: '08 financial crisis. If one does understand that something is wrong, it's important to speak up

@PereGrimmer During 9th grade (Waves 1 and 2), students took several standardized achievement tests designed assessing knowledge required to function effectively in modern society: reading competence (RE), mathematical competence (MA), scientific competence (SC) .." seems like a german SAT

@PereGrimmer SAT stood for 'aptitude test' long ago, but they changed it. It's since been called 'Scholastic Assessment Test' and the self-referential 'SAT Reasoning Test' and then just 'SAT'. AFAIK it's pretty commonly accepted that SAT and ACT are well correlated with IQ.

@PereGrimmer when I was in school, the grade level assessment tests were different from state to state in the US (now harmonized by Common Core). They're pretty strongly modeled off ACT/SAT. For example, ACT has a science, reading, and math category (same as the germans)

@HypeMass @PereGrimmer hmmmm

@eigenrobot type A i'm fucced

@HypeMass @PereGrimmer what was I off abt my guy

@PereGrimmer i dunno man i don't think i said anything controversial http://www.iapsych.com/iqmr/koening2008.pdf

@ne0agent1c @PereGrimmer ive yet to see the evidence for this tbh. since the moment i started going on reddit and twitter it became clear to me that most people in these corners of the internet feel that they're inconvenienced genius slackers. statistically it seems unlikely that they all are

@HypeMass @PereGrimmer pls do so we can have a moment of self reflection