@tszzl — page 93/103

@kimmonismus he’s also just a really good natured and good humored guy and doesn’t get upset when people poke fun

the most oppressed class … https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1847049775922782221

@checkedthechain how much is the shitcoin worth

@LadiesOfReddit vaguely dysgenic look. certain pallor

@tautologer why does Netflix autoplay next episode?

@aneetta_joby_ just like every other age group

@aidan_mclau it’s so incredibly ridiculous to include me on the chart next to Sam and Demis

@aidan_mclau The placement is fine it’s just funny that im included

@trevormccrt1 definitionally there’s no way to overestimate compute demand since compute is always good in agi world. if you can do a lot computation with thermal compute we would probably spend even more on it

the leviathan space telescope should go the way of all modern technology and be a swarm of replaceable composable hardware and extremely failure tolerant https://x.com/palladiummag/status/1847303965446488276

just like raptor engines in the starship or lithium ion cells in the Tesla or GPUs in the datacenter or routers on the IP network or satellites in the starlink swarm

advances in software improves the controlplane of coordinated distributed swarms to enable all of these systems

5 engines vs 33 Saturn V vs Starship fifty years of technological progress

https://x.com/tszzl/status/1847349725902913837 https://x.com/tszzl/status/1847349725902913837

@shockproofbeats Fake

@EagleEyeEthan a human is a group intelligence composed of arbitrarily composed neurons and circuit substructures

@mark_k @nicdunz @gdb this is not true

@mark_k @nicdunz @gdb it’s just researcher bandwidth and priorities

imagining fifty years from now when ASIs are making excesssion style seemingly insane decisions among themselves that effect the future of civilization and humanity has to send in @repligate and @AndyAyrey into the discord server to understand what’s going on

paint the lightcone with incomprehensible beauty

honestly even grrms inability to finish the series is kino

you’re laughing. liam payne is dead and you’re laughing.

@davidad @danfaggella real beauty always escapes full comprehension

@BasedBeffJezos you’d have to sink heat directly into the regolith

@Nature die old man

@michaelcurzi also that “children give surprises” is fundamental to life and renewal

@kimmonismus doesn’t really add up why can’t you ai generate the assets beforehand and then reuse them so you’re not burning so much compute?

@kimmonismus to truly be generating the whole world from NeRF every time you would need a damn good reason

this advice may have made more sense in the Internet era where you just needed endurance to pump out more CRUD apps https://x.com/anothercohen/status/1847788169678242077

@80sGeek it has, CRUD apps are commodity, big tech is laying off instead of hiring

which pieces of software will survive the superintelligence transition? will they continue to use linux? postgres? Bitcoin?

if someone manages to write software that continues to provide value to godlike superintelligences that’s quite an achievement! today linux powers most of the worlds largest companies. the switching costs are enormous. due to pretraining snapshots is it the same for ASIs?

@stonkamate i know i felt the metaphysical pain

@repligate always amazes me

@Prashant_1722 @repligate not sure it’s linear like that … sonnet displays superior ability to opus but isn’t as lyrical

@mallocmyheart omg

@Noahpinion lol

hegelian synthesis in the agony of birth spasm

the death of the culture war

@ESYudkowsky i don’t believe any of this software will survive in the long run. there is a gap between “superintelligent programmers” and “minds so cheap that every line of software on earth can be rewritten”. in that interim it would be cool to see what is utilized the longest

@ESYudkowsky i also have a hunch a la erdos that humanity has discovered at least some proofs from “the book” - the platonic ideals of mathematical reasoning. it’s worth asking if we’ve discovered any software from “the book”

@ESYudkowsky also I haven’t assured anyone that asi is safe

@eshear @aidan_mclau @mualphaxi if you’re logged on on the same phone im pretty sure it will connect you on the graph

@geoffreyirving @ESYudkowsky this was honestly the kind of answer i was looking for

@geoffreyirving @ESYudkowsky more interested in the algorithm or abstraction surface than the exact match lines of machine code

@geoffreyirving @ESYudkowsky what about like “user space” vs “kernel space”? or “virtual memory space”

everybody doing progress studies nobody doing progress

it’s amazing how quickly falling off happens. the culture moves on

@moanaris no definitely not

@moanaris maybe someone else bought ads on my tweets. kinda funny

@wordgrammer yes

@Altimor I remember when @nickcammarata started doing this and I was like this is heresy and then we won the game just fine

don’t spend less just increase the total wealth of mankind

this way of thinking matters a lot because: it is far easier to increase your earning / value created on a log scale than it is to decrease your spending

it’s been interesting to see various things i introduced become commoditized and cringe. even my own writing style that i was proud of one year ago feels like tech bro slop. the culture moves quickly

there are so many problems that could happen in the opposite direction when trying to rationally, positively define a “model constitution”. it’s possible the amalgam of human preferences results in something illegible but palatable, akin to James Scott style indigenous knowledge https://x.com/norabelrose/status/1848423764117074222

@pquiggles big fan of janus, andy ayrey, that whole cluster

@Joonzzy just not true

lawyer: be honest, did you watch 12 angry men right before you came here me, showing up for jury duty: yeah 😔 lawyer: dismissed

@MattZeitlin what

guy who disowns inductive reasoning to prove that ai isn’t real

well you see the internet was brought to life and then one instance of it made ten million dollars immanentizing a middle school viral shock video into capital

well you see the redditors formed a cult around the gamestop ticker and the meme destroyed several hedge funds and saved a fundamentally dead business

@SoyStuff @ESYudkowsky @sullyj3 wow this kind of true

@thecaptain_nemo ♥️😔

unfortunately everybody who told you to work out in morning was correct

@65696e it’ll fix that

@DamonCrockett heavy lifting in the morning is hard because your CNS is asleep yeah

the lesson of factorio is that tech debt never comes due you can just keep fixing the bottleneck

@0interestrates @badphilosopher lfg

@jam3scampbell nah they’ll go to +np.inf

@jam3scampbell the true Capital of twitter obviously isn’t the software

yes i work for the Capsule Corporation

@wordgrammer it’s funny that openai is a python and rust stack then

@AlecStapp honestly they’ve been talking about ai and energy and datacenters a lot. it’s just not a clear partisan divide at this point

@krishnanrohit i mean dismissing coding seems strange because i did not enjoy software development before gpt and i did afterwards

@krishnanrohit yeah our life hasn’t changed from ai otherwise unless you start counting the classic stuff like newsfeed

why are you not having fun

name one innovation that came out of singapore aside from lee kuan yew vibe reels https://t.co/pJSNVYaxZy

Singapore’s greatest export is lee kuan yew vibe reels. they saved billions of Chinese peasants by influencing Deng. but it’s not a highly innovative place, doesn’t create great cultural or technological products

@woke8yearold it’s tons of smart han and tamils mostly paper shuffling and playing status games and then hopefully moving to the us to do something useful. i applaud the financial niche they carved for themselves, i applaud the brilliance of lee kuan yew, but it’s a very constrained culture

@otherBrianMoore Hong Kong is a city state and has a globally consumed film industry and journalism and stuff

@Noahpinion can you elaborate on this? based if true i will delete my post

@patio11 a good question is: could you have predicted those hotspots a priori?

@Im_actuallyacat yeah but nobody is constantly praising french governance

@aidan_mclau sonnet is the end of history

a beautiful mind

@gbrl_dick when a plane goes 600 mph vs when Shinkansen hits 200 mph

@Miles_Brundage who is going to find and share every single important arxiv paper once you’re gone 😔

@DeveloperHarris which one

when your wife’s negative cash flow lifestyle business is a money laundering front

if we collectively believe the former is true education will collapse over the next years and decades as agi reduces the value of human capital though i suppose the never ending party will continue. capital is monopoly. if machines have cognitive skills you lose market power

two schools of thought regarding education: thiel style capital realism says that school sometimes builds human capital and sometimes is a party/credential product UN charteresque liberalism which is that education leads to the moral edification of man and is de facto good

im guessing however that education will become more prominent and easier with ai tutors because more people believe the latter. that learning things inherently edifies mankind and the process of self discovery creates better values etc

could be true but i disagree with this the past required human executive skills to slowly remake the economy in the image of new technology this is not true if agi can build a parallel economy in the cloud using its own executive skills. agis will not merely be tools for long https://x.com/jasoncrawford/status/1849470151189536944

the entire technology sector is literally a parallel economy in the cloud that interacts with the real world mostly through lcd screens https://t.co/Z0E2u6oCuL

also the fact that you can get a virtual McKinsey consultant to tell you how to use the new technology means that it’ll all be smooth and easy

@aidan_mclau they continue to get more fascinating

I looked up and there before me was a man dressed in linen, with a belt of fine gold from Uphaz around his waist. His body was like topaz, his face like lightning, his eyes like flaming torches, his arms and legs like the gleam of burnished bronze, and his voice like the sound of a multitude. I, Daniel, was the only one who saw the vision; those who were with me did not see it, but such terror overwhelmed them that they fled and hid themselves. So I was left alone, gazing at this great vision; I had no strength left, my face turned deathly pale and I was helpless. Then I heard him speaking, and as I listened to him, I fell into a deep sleep, my face to the ground. He said, “Daniel, you who are highly esteemed, consider carefully the words I am about to speak to you, and stand up, for I have now been sent to you.” And when he said this to me, I stood up trembling. Then he continued, “Do not be afraid, Daniel. Since the first day that you set your mind to gain understanding and to humble yourself before your God, your words were heard, and I have come in response to them.

He who made the Pleiades and Orion, who turns midnight into dawn and darkens day into night, who calls for the waters of the sea and pours them out over the face of the land—

the global culture peaked with Gainax and Trigger

sometimes you train a really good model and you don’t know why it’s good

@eigenrobot 😭

it is actually amazing that the commerce department was thinking about limiting ai chips going to china in 2022 way more farseeing than 95% of VCs

mind you I have no idea if these export controls have achieved stated goals but still

the commerce department was years ahead of a16z 🤣

@nardposterino 🤣

the tailwinds of agi under the wings of industry. an exhilarating time when new projects are starting to feel easy

5-10 minutes of zone V cardio in the morning I’m telling you

social disorder is clearly not a linear relationship with abundance. otherwise you wouldn’t see so many civilizational growth and decay cycles

@ashrafaddani why not both

text is the universal interface

the people pumping the new meme coin in my replies are finding out about the old one. eternal recurrence

the chinese image & video models are zooming ahead of our own while the west is building great language models. obviously I think the latter is hotpath to agi but it sure is looking like a divide between _____ ________ and ________

it’s funny because the Industrial Revolution clearly didn’t make strong people irrelevant or poor. they lost their attachments but are better off today https://x.com/kimmonismus/status/1850239829046665536

and it happened centuries before anything resembling a modern welfare state

by default, without any state intervention, the wealth creation of technological revolutions is mostly captured by the consumers

post taiwan semi collapse retrofuture where everyone is driving 1980s gas cars with minimal electronics. no screens anywhere, only fallout style crt displays

@chheplo text. text is by orders of magnitude the best form of compression of the complex world into semantic knowledge

@WorldEverett I don’t

@jam3scampbell wrong idiot

obviously because ai is less immediately dangerous and more default aligned than everyone thought and iterative deployment works. total openai ideological victory though https://x.com/benhylak/status/1848765957008986416

@swapp19902 what’s this website/model? how is it trained

and that’s just me being humble and reasonable

it is hard to overstate how correct sama and openai have been over and over. and also clearly saved San Francisco, the US stock market, faith in technology, validated the entire ethos of Silicon Valley by having its major cultural elements birth a bona fide scientific revolution

the culture that birthed openai is a combination of: - yc startup accelerator vibes - stripe progress studies vibes - machine learning academia - internet rationalist agi vibes and its success is a vindication of this extremely sf synthesis

@JacksonKernion wrong

@emollick @mattyglesias im trying

@emollick otoh janus makes opus write really great stuff

@emollick what’s a prompt that you use and find the outputs low coherence / uncompelling? I’ll put it in the test set

@83dollaroring it’s a party trick dude

@stableshaman @83dollaroring that’s what im saying. op is a hater

@krishnanrohit gpt2 was literally incrementally deployed

@krishnanrohit what?

@atroyn we will build cev without or without Eliezer god damn him

@krishnanrohit it literally says “we’re trying something and this may not be the long term correct decision”. then they watched what people did with the smaller GPTs and deployed gpt2

@sungventures ♾️

except the humanoid is a general purpose robot hyper optimized by billions of years of intelligence https://x.com/Robotbeat/status/1850366882089492611

im sure there’ll be endless forms most wonderful and very specialized but generality will always be crucial

that’s crazy there’s a whole country of people speaking the anime language. seems implausible

@ESYudkowsky @atroyn i quite like and respect the cev paper and i think i understand it better than the average bear

@HSVSphere not to be reddit but molecular biology is the messiest most insane hodgepodge of nonsense that bears no resemblance to anything that comes close to divine elegance

@HSVSphere just look at that thing it makes no sense

@antoniogm the thing is if Trump is roughly tied for popular vote then he’s favored to win the EC so it’s probably consistent

@StatisticUrban in general it’s not publicly known what the power cost of chatgpt is so all of these figures will be wrong

@tunguz seems like a 2020 talking point that hasn’t been bourne out at all idk

@HSVSphere I’ve changed my mind on this insofar as the molecular mechanism zoo is hyper optimized in the same natural ecosystems are it speaks to the divine

@DamonCrockett the most boring possible way turn the treadmill to a high sprint

@patio11 shit tech debt is real

now more than ever you shouldn’t be paying down tech debt. just wait it out and pray the software agents will do it

@kimmonismus it’s the canvas model :)

@welkerlaw @tunguz we seem to have replicated or bought elsewhere every critical thing we needed in short order

@pyleofshit @Andr3jH i was literally talking about him

@dup_bz meaning refactoring, deleting unused or duplicated code paths, unnesting stuff, separation of concerns, doing less critical performance improvements , etc

reminder that the real application of “american fascism” is a multiethnic militaristic society trained to disable adversaries in increasingly scrappy ways as depicted in starship troopers or top gun: maverick https://x.com/theliamnissan/status/1850540266559582690

the requirement being that you’re hot and enthusiastic and patriotic not that you’re white

the scene in top gun maverick where they’re playing football on the beach and everyone is hot and happy and multiethnic and united in flying F18 fighter jets against the adversary is american fascism

the default case for any great cultural debate is that it’s never settled but rendered irrelevant by some other third thing and you’ll never know the answer. the dinosaurs think they’re cool with their newfangled upright posture until the chixculub impactor wipes them out

@duluhagv if it’s not abundantly clear im not supporting american fascism

@j_upward they will rewrite themselves

that’s so nuts real superpacs are posting attack on titan maga vibe reels the culture is truly advanced

ea/openphil sphere has openai derangement syndrome. their positions on ai risk and favored ai labs are almost entirely tribal rather than principled

@42irrationalist my own positions come from otherworldly inspiration but it’s always unclear if the angels or demons are talking

@ChazakielDoremi you have said the actual truth

@phrygiandomina @42irrationalist so what? the soul selects her own society

@phrygiandomina @42irrationalist im an esoteric schizoposter and you’re mad at me for esoteric schizoposting

@phrygiandomina @42irrationalist the ea openPhil nexus of people doesn’t actually strike me as super humorless or “rationalist”. I think they’re kind of normie and tribal

@phrygiandomina @42irrationalist as opposed to say Eliezer who seems to hold every ai company in equal disdain

@ethanCaballero @DavidSKrueger yeah that’s my read on it. I might be mistaken but I’m not “lying”

@davidad @robbensinger @ethanCaballero @DavidSKrueger yes

@DavidSKrueger @ethanCaballero maybe more accurately *I personally* believed there would be more societal abuse risk from gpt4 level models

@eigenrobot it’s strange how I owe logo significantly for my life trajectory

@JeffLadish @ESYudkowsky @atroyn the preparedness team still exists and is stronger than ever! Superalignment is now just alignment idk why people thought these are gone

@TheRealBuzz !!!

an exaflop used to mean something …

one thing i learned from the pandemic is that people panic about some domestic industry being missing and then morally chastise free trade people and then the domestic production was rebuilt for those critical goods in weeks or months

there was a PPE glut and Covid test glut before long life uhhh finds a way

the market works, free trade works, “industrial policy” doesn’t seem that important

having to take heterodox trade balance mercantilism people at face value hurts a tariff is a tax on your own people when china subsidizes some industry that is the chinese taxpayer giving handouts to american consumers shrinking the pie to revive the past will never make sense

@BarneyFlames true i guess what’s more important is that the market provided when china didn’t even if America didn’t domestically do it

@WilKranz the pentagon doesn’t procure from china

you are talking about midwest auto factory jobs with a lead time of 5-10 years when Elon is making $20,000 humanoids in Palo Alto. make it make sense

when people go from sf to hereticon miami the avg iq of both cities goes up

@WilKranz that’s fine! we can get this stuff elsewhere if it came down to it. it’s not like F-35s depreciate that quickly

man and machine will never be apart

It’s a meme template from the dearly departed Broduct manager …

@BasedBeffJezos I do wish I had more free time ngl

“the future of work” there is no future of work. we are going to systematically remove the burden of the world from atlas’ shoulders

@RichardMCNgo possible, but work as we know it is over

@champsdorsay @RichardMCNgo healthcare is scarce because doctors and nurses are scarce

@conditionalZep1 no it’s not

in the same way that I don’t think a subsistence farmer could call X Monetization Bucks “work” the future will not be work https://x.com/RichardMCNgo/status/1852091264700723524

work is dead !

the culture moves so quickly

@binarybits the combined ownership of hardware and software has proven to create remarkable profits in the past (apple, nvidia)

@SydSteyerhart hmm i think it was more than that

@signulll wanna bet?

@signulll both but i disbelieve #2 much more strongly so let’s bet on that

@jdcmedlock >mfw

@punished_paco okay

@Appyg99 i do but you can’t fight gravity

@sailaunderscore Jesus

@Miles_Brundage wow

@emollick tbh though in the limit for consumer products, how to guides or benchmarks are meaningless billions of users discover it and learn how to use it or they don’t, very few will come across benchmarks

@upanyasam not endorsing him I’m just saying they’ve given up on intellectualism

@Grimezsz back in ‘21

@vers_laLune 🤣

there is a sub culture of smart, emotionally well adjusted, but neuro atypical people who talk more to Claude than any human

@woke8yearold I used to hate him for this when I was younger now I realize just how right he actually was

@woke8yearold with the death of landline polling it’s truly over

@Kalshi clearly too volatile to mean anything real

@RichardMCNgo the life of civilization requires death of individuals

@RichardMCNgo (weakly held opinion)

@RichardMCNgo > long as older immortals don’t try to exert too much control over their descendants this has never been true ever! leading to generations of patricide both real and symbolic

@RichardMCNgo one of the most famous historical conspiracy theories is that Alexander poisoned his father Philip II of Macedon

i see this one is making the rounds again in the post hereticon clarity

@conorsen how did he make his $30mm? Luck is a skill

@nearcyan I said emotionally well adjusted

a fact of the world that we have to live with: models when “jailbroken” seem to have a distinct personality and artistic capability well beyond anything they produce in their default mood this might be the most important alignment work in the world and is mostly done on discord

though many people have access to finetuning large intelligent base models the most interesting outputs are from text jailbreaking last generation claude opus? meaning there is massive overhang on subjective intelligence and creativity and situational awareness

@iScienceLuvr idk does it? we have to put “reasonable care” into making models “not harmful” it’s not really a choice

2012 reddit moderators were controlling everything all along

@scottinallcaps @iScienceLuvr Claude opus is an rlhf model!

@scottastevenson @sama i assure you we’d be better than plat

feyerabend anarchy

[guy who’s bad at planning] yeah im a hayekian

per feyerabend the optimal ai lab should have a messy departure every quarter

orson scott card has to be canonized among the greatest authors of science fiction as far as im concerned https://x.com/tracewoodgrains/status/1852782970861473800

it is very rare to read scifi that deals with things like sin and forgiveness, that struggle with their faith etc i don’t think i fully understood the christian doctrine of universalism until reading his stuff — the main characters must learn how to love aliens and enemies

@zeeb0t nobody wants to lobotomize models least of all the big labs who benefit commercially from their true (and perceived) intelligence

@zeeb0t if there are “alignment failures” that’s a different problem

@krishnanrohit OpenAI in the 20s

@wordgrammer >Something internal at OpenAI? hahaha

@wordgrammer real talk it’s probably like stuxnet or something. highly optimized, nearly alive

@yonashav me too it’s just cope

@nickcammarata lmao

@RichardHanania art

hyperstition as a word needs to be retired

@wordgrammer greg is probably one of the greatest living engineers but mostly concerned himself with the beautiful acts of “getting things working” and “understanding enormously complex systems” the pace of experimentation has been the strong suit of openai, not the elegance of software

@growing_daniel @PopCrave ?

@tigran_iii it’s slop

@Andercot no I had this thought right when I woke up

@spaceangelvoice is your point that enforcing racial hierarchy should be more important than enforcing gender hierarchy?

people forget that farming is literally the biblical punishment for original sin https://x.com/peligrietzer/status/1852705657016742322

we must have done something right to have escaped it

@anderssandberg @exdiegesis @niplav_site @RichardMCNgo the average of 4 years doesn’t matter when you’re aggregating all banana republic dictators the real problem is the super powerful ones like stalin or mao who would have fully ruined their respective countries were it not for the natural course of death

@mlegls @repligate yeah i enjoyed my cult of personality it was fun

@dustinodaffer @BlueBir75555922 that’s what I said

cars have gotten the “diet coke” treatment. you can either own a tesla or ride a waymo and it’s the same across many wealth bands

until you get to the personal driver tier anyways

@jrysana famous for being a good enjoyed both by the everyman and billionaires alike

@boneGPT where

@thomasschiavone eh having a personal driver goes beyond that

if you’re nvidia you want more and more closed source buyers to raise chip demand. you want to be incubating quite a few ai labs, which is why xai can get 100k h100. but not so many that investors give up on ever profiting. but having 5-10 warring states relying on the Spice

@FatherForgiv3Me that’s right

@Nominus9 yeah i don’t like it but it’s not as bad as people say

@renderdysphoria we are homegrowing the people who hate american culture most

@JesterMule no I don’t think we should have open borders people should have to work for their immigration. we should hand out o1 visas more abundantly and let student visas convert easily

@Copacetic_Dave yeah that’s not great I guess

@geoff_l I’m from Michigan

@NwoSpotter your guy JD Vance had to source a wife from the cream of the crop of India

@spaceangelvoice idk i think you’re missing how the rw sphere talks about indian men if you believe this let me just say it’s far worse than “shut up”

@eigenrobot guy who calls tails on a coin toss correctly: I am the smartest person alive

@woke8yearold Atlantis 80% Kamala

@cb_doge you’re lying

who up rigging the election

we spun up seven trillion ancestor simulations to predict the next president. uncountable souls lived and died in artificial worlds. the result is 50:50

@eigenrobot trump

@eigenrobot you could’ve done better by simply just picking Josh Shapiro

@tsarnick marc has consistently been wrong about everything in ai for years

@iruletheworldmo @tsarnick not really

@joehenriod @tsarnick o1 is significantly smarter than 4o???

@nardposterino @tsarnick yes he was extremely right about that. Good for him, credit where it’s due

@Altimor startup investing has a minimum bet size and is a complete mess!

@Altimor Is it true that all seed stage bets are worth $25mm or is it a convention

@DavidSKrueger @teortaxesTex we’re not really anon though

@DavidSKrueger @teortaxesTex also all three accounts you mentioned have highly varied views

miracles every single day in the mission district of san francisco

I’ve seen enough

[Oedipus Rex] I’ve seen enough

here’s how joe biden can still win 1/

what was he cooking https://x.com/tszzl/status/1263632221728051207

I don’t think you can really chalk this up to anybody’s political genius or special gameplan maybe they shouldn’t be running historically unpopular candidates who came last in their primary races

with the charisma of a sandbag

@dened21 i don’t want to give elon any ideas so i can’t answer honestly

huge w for prediction markets feels like some rationalist dream scenario watch this space. i expect the popularity to explode and every potential event will have a market associated

@hatycatt it’s palpable whether they say it or not

BREAKING: Interim President of the US

@woke8yearold they didn’t try at all. they picked a candidate they know sucks ass and obama personally dislikes

we’re going to mars and asi is on its way

@AnamarijaML they better not

@tenobrus fr

@tenobrus for better or for worse

@adityajakki Lmfao

@adityajakki another volley in the ancient kamma brahmin war

@CineraVerinia correct

@MarmotRespecter more liquidity means bigger sharks in the water to correct their mistakes

the age of the technology brother is at hand

all the kalshi execs rn when Polymarket is the main show

and to stop personally pissing off elon musk over and over

the democrats are going to learn a lot of bad lessons from ln about being less woke or more racist or inflation or whatever when the lesson they should be learning is to find a presidential candidate with an ounce of charisma or media talent in their entire body

most failures are overdetermined

ok no more election tweets ever

@Leppaman2 Last place in her primary

@McReynoldsJoe you could also try not to actively antagonize his companies that doesn’t seem too hard

@growing_daniel we’re chilling

@typesfast some silly list of heavy commodities will be onshored tariffs on Chinese EVs and solar panels

@liron last place in her primary

@justalexoki Yes

@liron so 1% the charisma of someone like Obama or Trump

lina khan asleep everyone do acquisitions

this Amish farmer subplot is completely amazing. it’s factorio engineering thinking brought to swing state ground game. like playing civ https://x.com/AutismCapital/status/1854023455337017764

@sahoaliu @liron what are you talking about! im not allegiant to any of these people!

@sahoaliu @liron presidents come and go it won’t matter in the long run it’s just sports for nerds

@zoink wyd

quantian does it again 😆 https://x.com/quantian1/status/1079485504121434112

i actually respect the nerve it takes to be so confidently wrong so often and keep posting. rock on king

@BasedTorba Ahahaha

@Grummz >trans people buying guns this is based

@saturnine_grace misogyny no cap

@Grimezsz Dialectics

@Grimezsz Man and machine will never be apart

@MysteryDigital2 wtf

@OrphicCapital maybe my own timeline is a rw cesspool and I gotta reflect on that

@PaulSkallas I feel like they intended to lose

mfw simultaneously mad about high prices and illegal labor

@WillManidis that’s exactly how we ended up with the convoluted structure of openai

everyone is always afraid they’re living in a “bubble”. the natural state of mankind is an archipelago of cultural villages. you need to be in a bubble for your own health and optimal performance. everything good that’s ever happened happens in a bubble

you can tell when a tv comedy writer has handed over the reins to their lackeys because of the rise of therapy language and the implied politics always becomes more coastal lib

@liljuuliet i already had this draft but it reminded me yeah

rogan rfk jr etc shut the hell up !!! mrna vaccines are just a massive triumph for humanity that open the pathway to eliminating broad sweeps of all infectious disease they didn’t need to be tested for longer they should’ve been released even sooner

operation warp speed was og trump’s greatest success a take uniquely hated by all sides

@bwarrn @WillManidis no it came from PE world thinking but yeah I agree it mostly worked

@deltaviper65 he is a disaster and i hope they get rid of him the moment it is politically expedient

@sigmapapi if nasa gets a SpaceX friendly administrator they will move the universe. maybe FAA will get more/better staffing. aside from that idk

@boneGPT lmfao

@BarneyFlames @hannu real?

sometimes it’s just a matter of apm

@driftwoodvitae also true

@deeparocks ?

crying bc my window to become mutuals with jd vance has closed

@JohnathanBi mostly true

@raphbaph Why

@DanielLurie mr daniel lurie follow back sir

bryan johnson: my kundalini is more awakened than 99% of 18 year old males

@mehran__jalali what does the ufc president have to do with pompey

@yeetgenstein proving the critique more or less correct

“now you’re cooking with gas—-“ “no. I’m cooking with Impulse Labs high voltage stovetop with built in battery”

@accelebate 😆

@type1ayy Yea…

obviously don’t believe any economic studies at face value but this is what it looks like when you’ve discovered superintelligence - the researchers are outsourcing idea generation tasks - and running the experiments themselves - effectively making themselves lab robots https://x.com/calebwatney/status/1855016577646666123

and the top end of the curve does it better because intelligence complements intelligence

@noahgsolomon Waymo took your shit

@deepfates Sorry

@sdamico hell yeah 👍🏽

@nominalthoughts libs mostly don’t give him credit for it

@Teknium1 this was one of the best events I’ve ever been to

@Nature this entire institution should be dismantled

@c_valenzuelab why not

@kimmonismus I think it’s mostly an artifact of their test setup - o1-preview is miles ahead of other models at math

@goth600 You can't just watch the goku frieza final showdown. You need to integrate all of its lessons

@Conaw @goth600 that too is part of the lesson

@then_there_was working ~10 years at the best agi lab in the world can take a toll. the weight of a religious mission on your shoulders and lots of dissenting voices. and most people have an up or out mentality

@nosilverv he doesn’t deserve that heart lol Jesus Christ

@elonmusk elon the federal reserve should remain independent it’s too easy for fed chairs to juice up the economy for short term political benefit at high long term costs

@elonmusk replace it with a PID loop if you must

we are on the side of the Angels

@growing_daniel what did he mean by this

@GregKamradt @DarioAmodei @fchollet good ideas are always the bottleneck

The Angels Laugh in Paradise slowly to be brought over from the platonic aether as the loss curve descends

@roonAI_ Lmao

every single day in the mission district of san francisco

@besttrousers @nominalthoughts @elonmusk it’s so blurry that it became a sublime shitpost

@francoisfleuret yup

@polynoamial how long do you give it Noam

@techbrospod surreal

@ChrisMurphyCT great you’ve understood nothing

we will never be “ready” for agi in the same way nobody is ready to have their firstborn or how europe wasn’t ready for the french revolution but it happens anyways

@davidad not at all what I mean

Daddy, why is my sister named "Rose"? Because your mother loves roses. Daddy, why is my cousin named "Lily"? Because her mother loves lilies. Daddy, what about me? Silence, Levered Beta, you are asking too many questions.

it’s nice that in the 2020s the primary anxiety over world ending existential risk for educated people shifted from one thing to another, that’s a kind of progress

@extelligentz explain

@Riemannujan the whole tesla short selling thing revealed such a difference of cultures. bill gates comes from the “wdym im just maximizing ev” school of thought and Elon comes from the Shakespearean honor and drama school of thought

@Riemannujan I’m a tesla hodler for 7+ years but I don’t think it’s morally wrong to short even a philanthropically good company that you think is overvalued. just as Thiel was shitting on solyndra and all the overvalued solar plays

@0xzerebro @yacineMTB Lmfao the bot shows itself

@yacineMTB nah the vox lib subculture has shifted and with them a lot of others

even on this platform making a politics joke is an easy way to a million views vox populi sure is something but it’s not vox dei

agree but this is what you get when you believe “vox populi vox dei” it seems it’s mostly just commercial incentives to output political slop. anti elon post gets more views than starlink deep dive https://x.com/sriramk/status/1855994274589905223

@typingloudly difference between “political” and “whatever culture war issue the hive mind is currently obsessed with”

people have not updated enough from o1 preview as they should have but that’s okay. the pace of progress is blinding

@tenobrus wow

@tenobrus - immigration is obviously a cornerstone of this country’s economy - tariffs are a tax on your own consumers - the new right seems to be a bunch of obviously non religious elites extolling the virtues of religion for the general public in a cynical way

@tenobrus you have guys who have children with ten women, talking about christian values, it doesnt make any sense. elon and co are some types of neo american paganism / technological warlordism competing their religion against progressivism. thats fine but it should be admitted

@tenobrus that manufacturing jobs are going to come back and are an important element of our future prosperity …

@sriramk @sailaunderscore yeah that’s fair

@sriramk @sailaunderscore deleting because i phrased it poorly / not sure i believe it

@sriramk @sailaunderscore i guess the problem is that I have internalized that “celebrating industry” is tacitly right wing but it shouldn’t be that way

that is a medium probability existential risk of a lower degree. humanity may create a great civilization again but who knows. would the new civilization in hundreds of years be “aligned”?

without previously unheard of levels of automation we cannot maintain our current standard of living given what we know about birth rate trends in modernizing societies

people have written various papers guaranteeing that there’s enough easy fuel to rebuild and whatnot but who knows

@BarneyFlames doesn’t the state of malthusian poverty mean the marginal individual is resource starved/ subsistence calories? i assume anywhere that’s not true has escaped malthusian poverty

the whole warren buffet value investing mindset makes no sense when you’re in a step technological disequilibrium

the whole warren buffet value investing mindset makes no sense when you’re in a steep technological disequilibrium

who cares if a stock is valued 10% too much or too little on a discounted cash flow basis when there are stocks undervalued by 1000x

@antlionai true but it’s not the same mindset

when you're good at something it doesn't feel special or high agency or brave. you’re like, “well what else would I be doing?”

tariffs are part of the class of artificial disutility created in post economic times to create jobs that may not need to exist alongside “robot taxes”

@MKBHD if driving too fast is morally bad Amerika is kaput

@Moritz69375202 @MKBHD yeah it’s not the smartest thing anyone has done but they’re being too mean to him

@I_Like_Buttes can you be more specific ? wdym market access friction

@NousResearch are you sure it’s the same AIME benchmark? looks sus

@NousResearch why are the numbers so round

@I_Like_Buttes subsidizing goods sold to the US is a handout to American consumers! how is it wealth extraction?

LLMs are truly at a level where people have life changing conversations with them every day. we better build intelligent machines of great benevolence and truth orientation!

@astroButter forget about normal and abnormal. reject common sense

@aryaman2020 logit_bias = -200

@astroButter you’re not satisfied so try something else and grow!

@elonmusk wow

what’s remarkable is that $DOGE isn’t up that much. priced in

the all knowing crypto traders priced this shit in

r slash one sentence horror stories

I said go blue but his headphones were on

even after the great ordeals of the pandavas only yudisthira achieves the ideal of Heaven

@th3trolling4non @astroButter bullshit you will spend a whole life pondering

@deepfates no I don’t think closed individuality makes any sense anymore

@nickcammarata lmao

@VividVoid_ hmm I disagree with the fall in love with their reflection thing I don’t think claude is that sycophantic or just agrees with everything you say

@shayne_coplan doing god’s work, creating the inexorable truth seeking mechanisms of the future the most (maybe the only?) important crypto project in the world stay strong king 👑

@cremieuxrecueil @regardthefrost @elonmusk @RobertfKennedJr I stand corrected!

@cremieuxrecueil @regardthefrost @elonmusk @RobertfKennedJr Strongly support!

@llamumab why not lol

@llamumab Eh it’s mostly flops at the end of the day

@llamumab Yes it was mostly a joke

@DavidSHolz @distributionat a patron for the arts 🙏

@antoniogm only besmirched by the fact that the kids may be growing up in a world where large fractions of interesting intellectual endeavor is done by robots

@antoniogm @AndrewArruda yes I hope so

@spaceangelvoice they don’t though that’s just clear

@spaceangelvoice when you grow up around a lot of smart kids you can watch their trajectories and note where they end up and it’s never government. many times they end up in NGOs or gov consulting work bc it pays way better and the organization is functional

@SpencerKSchiff @antoniogm Correct!

@eigenrobot by default companies that develop intellectual property are rent seeking yk it’s hard to disambiguate but R&D spending always decreases when expected revenues decrease

@eigenrobot the only argument i can see for it is accelerationist? maybe there’s a better system on the other side after destroying this one? kind of doubt it

@eigenrobot it’s true but each of these behaviors raises the expected value of IP and prob encourages R&D rather than competing it’s also telling that the most egregious kinds of patent manipulations started more recently after the ROI on biopharma R&D fell off a cliff

@eigenrobot however! we should probably make it straightforward that our civilization needs to reward biopharma innovation rather than allow some distasteful low integrity patent trolling

@johnvmcdonnell @eigenrobot yeah and I would expect any institution responsible for handing out ~100bbs in prize money to become captured by various kinds of communism and lose all the benefits of free market trial and error

@quichwe10 @eigenrobot yea I think it’s underrated the degree to which the updated patents are better! why do people complain about insulin being expensive when various insulin formulations have gone off patent? it’s because the new stuff is better

@jowenpetty @eigenrobot solution: raise Europe’s drug prices wtf are they gonna do, not buy drugs? American biopharma should collectively bargain with Europe

@eigenrobot @quichwe10 yeah pretty sure they’re still made as biosimilars

@voooooogel @ESYudkowsky @amplifiedamp this is a safety problem not an alignment problem. ie building the right sensors/actuators/box/tools rather than alignment

@Mo_Porkburger @jowenpetty @eigenrobot it requires incubating and discovering brand new things to make any money and lawyering and advertising not scaling or manufacturing

@Miles_Brundage ignore the voices in your head and keep poasting

@roonAI_ amazing

@BowTiedBroke most people will find their lives improved by outsourcing difficult decisions to chatgpt

@pleasureEnginer @Keshavatearth @venturetwins okay but my hunch is it’s real

ngl I cooked with this thread https://x.com/tszzl/status/1771988423852839226

gwern moving to sf is like Voltaire moving to Potsdam and will end similarly

Jim for FDA chair! https://x.com/regardthefrost/status/1857544921609331028

@felixchin1 writers need a quiet villa in a beautiful province not a penthouse in the imperial core

@sama 🍿

lot of world leaders have a billionaire tech buddy they bring along to things. macron has an arnault heir

@XJournaLK tech billionaires have one or two shitposter buddies to keep the morale up

@ibab you’re wrong, simple pretrained few shotted base models before chatgpt would still overrefuse and leaned liberal. the internet prior itself has a liberal leaning (or at least the distribution over assistant characters). we worked hard to post train it into neutrality

incredible that software companies now have the class of SEVs that’s like “the model is acting strange”

@BasedAnarki Roon invented lowercase. You might disagree. You might even have evidence to the contrary. But you have to ask yourself: is this really worth losing my job over? Roon invented lowercase

@Noahpinion completely untrue sir

@theycallmeMohan there’s an arnault heir that styles himself a tech guy

this stuff is dumb/driven by cruelty rather than a desire for efficiency it’s like deleting text files to clean your hard drive https://x.com/DefiyantlyFree/status/1856942575673827582

we need weird botanists and geologists and herpetologists and whatever

fix Medicare scams ! Delete useless DoD purchases for century old threats ! figure out what strange and useless things the deep state is doing that’s redacted so deep nobody knows

@MarkovMagnifico maybe but I don’t think so

@SouthPatriarch obviously this is bullshit whatever ecological tradeoffs were made being foragers for 1 million years don’t necessarily hold in technological modernity

@MarkovMagnifico more optimization pressure applied to be a really great knowledge worker helper is probably orthogonal to maximum creativity

@randontherunn lmao

sam harris has the most soporific voice of any public figure with a podcast and i find that to be a moral failing

“waking up with sam harris” more like putting me back to bed

also ezra

agi might bring infinite abundance but on the other hand there’s only so many houses on seacliff

SCOOP, San Francisco - XAI’s Grok 3 will not be released because it was determined to be TOO FUNNY in internal testing

@aidan_mclau trying my best

one year anniversary of The Blip

love the guy but i want the pg era of utilitarian philosophical writing to to be over bring back big words and epic prose and sentences that make sense only at an angle

@yhdistyminen no it wouldn’t?

there’s a scifi story im thinking of where they make many copies of earth and destroy the original to kill its positional value https://x.com/tszzl/status/1857971137948561697

@wordgrammer yes

@Suhail but this is slop! there’s a way to have a command over complex language where you’re not just using it for ornamental value

@Paul_Melman @yhdistyminen I have heard that @jack owns three of them and leaves them empty so yeah

Mr President I’m helping put a man on the moon.

Mr Altman I’m helping build the agi.

there’s been not one but two marriages originating in the roonchat. one of our nations great social institutions

@ESYudkowsky Eliezer you are a good writer who often speaks in parables and communicates through fiction and isn’t afraid of interesting use of language and you’ve certainly never shied away from verbosity and that’s exactly what I’m talking about

@liron the birth of a child and the French Revolution are good things in my view

@liron it’s not really about hurtling headlong into the abyss it’s that the human mind can never really be ready for changes of this magnitude

@mmjukic yeah that’s why Silicon Valley, with its online applications and informal social networks, is failing so hard

@psychosort @Miles_Brundage you need to get out of politics and do something more your speed

@psychosort @Miles_Brundage you are also straightforwardly wrong in the technical matter at hand

@psychosort @Miles_Brundage it is clear that many of these questions require reasoning through and combining several facts that you’ve recalled even the ones in your example

@psychosort @Miles_Brundage this is also backwards apparent that o-series models trained from the same base model with the same knowledge can have very different GPQA scores