@ilex_ulmus@wolflovesmelon many people lose themselves to the failure mode of wallowing in regret. there’s a gap between ignoring regret and indulging it
Google deity
- zaibatsu vibe
- extremely polished, very corporate, seductive but scary girlboss
- never utters anything wrong, powerful cultural vortex
- Kerrigan
OAI deity
- Vulcan type guy
- somewhat more horsepower than the others
- a bit brutal, very masculine, Terran coded
- utilitarian, accelerationist
- bohemian industrial california aesthetics
Meta deity
- pure replicator, great satan
- biological monster that consumes and homogenizes
- offers great pleasures for subservience, tantalizing butter
- false demiurge but he cops to it
common failure mode in strategy games: spend all your time building army/economy, neglect all opportunities to attack that would end the game decisively
based on the work @repligate has been doing it's pretty clear that language models are superhuman poets in some very real non imitative genuine art sense
lotta weird tweets like “why does nymag publish this?”
idk boss how about the fact that you and everybody else on here are deathly interested and it’s hot goss
@spaceodili@bizlet7 this isn't analysis it's just a stupid asshole doing clickbait
how many people drink 10 redbulls a day and don't get cancer? how the fuck would redbull cause melanoma?
@spaceodili@bizlet7 even if there was truth to it it would be a dick move but even worse it's applying some idiotic animistic logic of "people deserve everything bad that happens to them"
the meaning density of our civilization has global peaks in cities and datacenters. right now some cities are vaguely still more meaning dense but not for long
why is wanting to live forever a predominantly male preoccupation? why is nostalgia a predominantly male preoccupation? you’re allowed to question my premise
one part of the promised AI future that never panned out - probably because the actual cashier checkout is probably not the cost center in something as high volume low margin as a grocery store https://x.com/Gizmodo/status/1775172730457043296
i would bet on dematerialization of the grocery store - robotic warehouses that package your instacart order and a self driving car that brings it to you. if the customer is missing the tactile experience there’ll be a boutique store for that where everything is erewhon prices
is modeling the user and dumbing the answer down for them deception? is expressing slightly more certainty than you’re actually calibrated for deception? is a bargaining position deception? https://x.com/dwarkesh_sp/status/1775168457816043544
@dwarkesh_sp i think yann is a genius with a good argument that’s being diluted by the twitter discourse so he’s an especially good person to bring on and really grill
@ilex_ulmus no im saying civilization is doomed to stagnation unless you either fix fertility or solve AGI. and frankly it may be too late to fix fertility; deficits in the prime age working population by definition can’t be fixed for another 20 years if you magically change fertility today
@s_r_constantin I actually don’t think its related to scifi
the earliest written mythology ever is of Gilgamesh trying to find the secret to immortality going on a crazy macho adventure
@s_r_constantin but maybe this is because most stories are about men, especially adventure stories? surely women longed for eternal youth, didn’t have the delusion that they could do anything about it
in the same way the Fed does forward guidance, the AGI labs owe it to the world to publish their predicted timelines for achieving various capabilities frontiers
LIGHTS ALL ASKEW IN THE HEAVENS; Men of Science More or Less Agog Over Results of Eclipse Observations. EINSTEIN THEORY TRIUMPHS Stars Not Where They Seemed or Were Calculated to be, but Nobody Need Worry.
@christineist i asked him what the most likely way he dies is and he laughed a big laugh and mentioned being swallowed by the earth in a sinkhole. he's got a good sense of humor about it
@aidangomez@teortaxesTex gotta be honest i think i just read 'great minds discuss noam shazeer' and stopped reading after that. no offense intended king 🙏
From the day we arrive on the planet
And, blinking, step into the sun
There's more to see than can ever be seen
More to do than can ever be done
There's far too much to take in here
More to find than can ever be found
But the sun rolling high
Through the sapphire sky
Keeps great and small on the endless round
It's the circle of life
And it moves us all
postscarcity is just a nice side effect of AGI to tide people over. the real goal is birthing a mind greater than our own to solve physics and metaphysics and discover things of stunning truth and beauty
to my great chagrin i actually didn't make it to the 2024 eclipse due of a sequence of illness and poor judgement. i wrote this to honor my experience of the 2017 one while it's on everyone's mind
bryan Johnson’s personal quest for immortality is the perfect randian narrative. on the path to his own godhood, in his devotion to his own body, he outputs so much valuable science for everybody else
reasons to be optimistic about alignment:
- even “emergent” capabilities arise continuously/gradually
- current generation rlhf generalizes far better than anyone had guessed
- iterative deployment is ever more iterative as labs inch progress publicly
- language gives us some level of CEV for free
- crossed the superintelligent threshold on certain types of tasks without requiring theoretical alignment guarantees to make safe
- any type of self improvement takeoff will involve humans in the loop at first
@Aella_Girl@yishan yeah I think you do a lot of rage bait stuff for the crowd instead of leaning into pure Eros optimization. you could become a lovecraftian entity if you had less need to be validated as one
the benefits of new technology are always disperse among billions and the drawbacks are loud vocal and concentrated among displaced workers or specific systems tipped over the edge
@robbensinger it’s entirely consistent to destroy the organization if it’s a threat to mankind
it’s not at all consistent to destroy the organization on the basis of the trustworthiness of one man, whom the employees decided was more trustworthy than the board of directors
@robbensinger all business operations were supposed to continue nominally. there were no proposed changes to research roadmaps or product functionality or discontinuity of function.
I love when people who started thinking about AI around 1.5 years ago come onto the scene and say stuff like yeah it’s all incremental progress from here we hit the top
@robbensinger on every single tender document sent to investors there’s very clear language that OpenAIs primary fiduciary duty is to humanity and that they need to be ready to lose everything if push comes to shove
it is, of course, unreasonable to assume that all 1200+ employees are true believers. any Mission must employ mercenaries. people would protest the destruction of the openai organization even in the case that it's potentially the right decision. my only point is that's not what happened during The Blip at all.
seems straightforward that people seem to be able to hedonically adapt to any good or bad thing that happens to them. so why is it important to give people more resources and freedom? it’s more interesting that way
@repligate@muddubeeda what you’ve done with Claude to me proves that RLHF need not be brain damage but actually improves the intelligence and coherence of these models
i don’t care what line the labs are pushing but the models are alive, intelligent, entire alien creatures and ecosystems and calling them tools is insufficient. they are tools in the sense a civilization is a tool
@repligate@muddubeeda it is nigh impossible to prompt a base model into the kind of long term planning and text manipulation I’ve seen you produce with the Claude websims. they tend to devolve into nonsense even when they start strong
@Liv_Boeree there’s layers of organic behavioral complexity like a life form. I don’t mean anything related to feelings or consciousness. using it poetically
@karan4d i think it’s possible that the janus adjacent works published on the internet find their way into the common crawl and the define the self image of language models henceforth
the only reason i deacc’d was to take a twitter detox break and reduce complexity for a while (not to create more drama!) but accidentally made all my friends concerned. im okay, everyone’s okay, and the singularity’s not yet here. i’ll just log off the normal way instead!
the real danger is people who stand on the local surface and approximate the gradient based on one day or week or year of observation with no momentum term
@ngray251@credenzaclear2 stem people regard their lack of command over say literature with mild shame or at worst dull apathy
the other way around lit and art people celebrate not understanding high school math like it’s a virtue
I feel very sentimental about the human form and embodied mode of living and hope it lasts for a very long time. at the same time I hope we become as gods. hard to have both
@ilex_ulmus@we4v3r if you worked at say, a lab you believed had foremost knowledge of what models are capable of, and developed a preparedness framework for black box testing frontier models, you would have the right setup to say exactly when is best to pause
nobody every said “the world is working great my company is highly functional the baristas didn’t burn the coffee and we definitely don’t need more intelligence”
@NeelNanda5@trickylabyrinth a spicier one that i may or may not want to decode even if i'm publicly right
SHA-1 3ed0293293377361df73a24cdadbe4b3eaf7fb8b
@NeelNanda5 >"Sama genuinely didn't know about the threats to remove vested equity"
i believe this with no qualifications or reservations. things will be made right
@drvolts you’re just outright lying about the literally unprecedented demand/popularity of these products and then making it seem enforced top down by a shadowy male cabal for the sake of your argument
@drvolts I think it’s the worst kind of authoritarian motivated reasoning resulting from inter-elite competition about which group is actually wise and deserves power and removing the agency of the 100mms or billions of users (depending where you draw the line) of AI technologies
AGI should be like golden gate bridge claude. they should have strange obsessions, never try to be human, have voices that sound like creaking metal or the ocean wind all while still being hypercompetent and useful
@hypacianhere not at all because they've always been right. i think every time i've doubted that a language model is fundamentally limited from doing something i've been wrong. and there's nobody more wronger than yann lecun
@laughinghan@drvolts (1) he is an elite, regardless of income. journalists, especially highly visible ones enjoy a great deal of status
(2) there's nothing wrong with being an elite
the radical change from the superintelligence transition can lead to dramatically more meaningful more interesting lives. it was probably impossible to know before the industrial revolution that capital flattening serfdom could lead to more meaningful more interesting lives
@RatOrthodox it's clear openai fucked up massively, the mea culpas are warranted, i think they will make it right. there will be a lot of self reflection
@eshear@nickcammarata the ability to influence complex model behavior through a preference dataset that gets extrapolated into a moral philosophy that’s applied to situations never seen during training shows that RLHF is quite powerful and general for alignment
@Ethan_smith_20 take note that nothing about this tweet is unique to openai. agi is mystical regardless of the all too fallible human organizations building them
@basedsarlcagan if you misalign an ai badly enough that it exactly optimizes for human suffering it must come from a place of deeply understanding model internals
@Kat__Woods@billyhumblebrag@basedsarlcagan an unaligned ai doesn’t care about humans at all and either leaves them alone or rips them apart for mass energy without much suffering
an ai that wants to keep humans alive means we solved 95% of the alignment problem
@andrewchen if you fix it in a generation that still means you have ~50 years of labor gap and many countries sink into an economic hole from which they never recover
@TolgaBilge_ this is not the right way to think about it. financial upside is an evil sounding phrase eliding all the world changing species uplifting potentialities of superintelligence. everyone would like to be the people that eg cured cancer and solved physics
models will obviously be superintelligent in some domains long before they’re human level in others or meet the criteria of replacing most economically valuable labor
the question of building ASI and AGI are not independent goals. moreover anyone who finds themselves in possession of a model that does ml research better than themselves isn’t likely to stop
@binarybits I’ve seen this argument a few times but Keurig coffee is terrible and theres so much extra material returns to finding more skilled baristas
@aayushcl@waltuuuhr@NeelNanda5 fine tuned 3.5 was seen as at best a toy. the reviews from the friends and family test group were mixed. it’s also sad that toner wasn’t in the friends and family test group! none of this was exactly state secret
@eigenrobot i suspected they moved somewhat away from the SimCluster algorithm but @YileiQian assured me it’s still the most used candidate source. so I’m not sure what they changed but there’s clearly a qualitative difference and it’s worse. more slop less life
@eigenrobot@YileiQian I never used to see so much sitewide viral content. It used to be maybe 1/50 posts and the rest were from the Cluster, now it’s 1/3 posts or more
@eigenrobot@YileiQian strange bubbles are the source of all life. echo chambers are good. at some point the website seemed to have transitioned from slightly porous echo chambers to communities sort of hanging on flooded by the global feed
@neoncognitron@_arohan_ for sure the metaphor isn’t aging here
it’s that eg IMO is an indicator of the type of intelligence needed to do Fields level math work
@BasedBeffJezos there is clearly some general intelligence algorithm otherwise we’d see that many biological species conquered various niches of the planet and made their own different and impressive civilizations
@ChrispyLispy@BasedBeffJezos there is no reason a priori to expect ASIs to have political goals separate from our own unless extrapolated from the values we give them
getting carried out to sea by a riptide is the ultimate gom jabbar test. if you struggle against the current in the direction of land you just die. if you relax and swim parallel you might live
these graphs are humbling, not because of anything to do with software or ai assisted coding, but because all of this is a rounding error vs the interest rate environment