@tszzl — page 85/103

over time nuclear bureaucracies im sure have only grown more complex and less feasible to do a errant first strike

this is obvious from how many times we came “close” to nuclear exchange during the cold war. you can either believe that we got lucky a hundred times or accept the truth: nuclear exchange is not possible because it’s unlikely that enough people in the chain are insane

nuclear weapons created the pax atomica americana, thanks to mr j robert oppenheimer

@AaronPogue @MorlockP Yes

@speedschootre no, nuclear exchange is not anthropic shadow because I don’t think it would have led to the actual end of civilization

@ArcusIgnium proving my point

also i dont believe anthropics apply. nuclear winter is fake and the exchange wouldn’t cause our extinction. there would be unthinkable loss and chaos as every major city turns to ash, but the fukuyama take is that it would only set us back like ~200 years

@okSettleDown nope :)

@_propane_tank_ imagine thinking coming up with something on your own is a lesser form of knowing. you are a prisoner

@nickcammarata just biding his time that sick fuck

techno optimist religious splinter

ecumenical shadow convention

@PrinceVogel I follow the dharma

@PrinceVogel @max_paperclips true, incredible waste spent just writing glue code between the latest set of pipes. it’s called CRUD app for a reason

bring that crybaby back in here

bring that sensitive careful man who showed humanity back into the nest so he may force me to make more uncomfortable reflections

We want to successfully navigate massive risks. In confronting these risks, we acknowledge that what seems right in theory often plays out more strangely than expected in practice.

@typedfemale intrinsic curiosity works better when models can predict states that lead to high transition uncertainty

they can do whatever to twitter and you’ll keep coming back 😔

gonna invent agi while y’all are in hawaii

@RippleyRippley me too

theory only gets you so far

@pataguccigoon there’s nothing like it, it’s over

😔 https://t.co/54Qb7y8lY7

can’t cucc the zucc

my ancestors were riding 5G horses across the iranian steppe

heading the Gadget alignment group at Los alamos

@Carlosdavila007 @yacineMTB Ya

How I learned to stop Worrying and Love the Everything App

dont know what the context is, not inquiring further

@lisatomic5 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nocebo

@nominalthoughts this is fake and dumb, we'll also mass generate media that could be for you and your friend group, you and your cultural milieu, etc. this literally already happens today except with course grained heuristics like Q ratings

we're about to go into another one of those "every week some life altering technology drops" time periods

@brndn_b not even close, our researchers still go to conferences and get drunk and let secrets slip. nobody is on a secret clearance

@PradyuPrasad no you need to just read twitter and then read the bare minimum background to settle the debates on twitter and then work on something fr important

@browserdotsys you could ruin my life fr

@browserdotsys i just never thought my life would be worth ruining

@yacineMTB buddy it took me more than a week

all modern comms departments, whether in government or major companies, are defensive. they don’t care about crafting the narrative nearly as much as they care about shutting down negative spin

there are no propagandists anywhere

this growing pattern of all institutions trying to fly under the radar while they collect rents and demonize their enemies has led to the indefinite pessimist culture we have today

even having a bonafide Ministry of Truth is better than this

amazing chart https://x.com/yeetgenstein/status/1683938686076088324

the point of my account is to make respectable machine learning scientists see boosted tweets from "PowerBottomDad" and "BreastMilkEnjoyer" in their feed

bored of all human thought, waiting for superhuman thoughts to be had

memes born under noospheric evolutionary pressures we can scarcely imagine

should i get back on adderall? https://x.com/tszzl/status/1473156331297120256

‘22: coldness be my god ‘23: warmness be my god

the difference is the adderall shortage, and the interest rates

@0xVatnik Yes

no offense but this thing is not levitating https://x.com/andrewmccalip/status/1684050718297313280

damn might have manifested a whole new node in the tech tree https://x.com/tszzl/status/1683727052518592512

@ElmoTheHomie yeah I’m fairly sure it’s fake

@radshaan true

he was spittin https://x.com/tszzl/status/1191599813177028609

@natfriedman i think you know sir. thats when github copilot hit

@natfriedman how do you translate user numbers directly to drop in page views?

@natfriedman could be a loss of a much smaller set of power users, which is what you'd expect with the adoption of a new technology but maybe a better explanation is some change in the way search rankings work

applied Casimir effect

@RamonGainez I have a physics degree

going to the arctic to hunt for magnet monopoles y’all want anything?

@totoconmoto @RamonGainez i accept all counts

wrote a long winded joke about the casimir effect but realized there was zero point to it

@ArthurB @RamonGainez true but it helps that the meissner effect experiment is something you do in undergrad physics lab so you have a sense for what it looks and feels like. not that its not simply one youtube lookup away

@andrewmccalip in breaking bad they visit tons of convenience stores to buy matchbooks for the red phosphorus on the striker strips

@daniel_271828 @CineraVerinia someone sent me this idk where it’s from

@Grimezsz why do you support this stuff but not the creative writing

@ctjlewis @devahaz sometimes you gotta play it up for the people

most lives of schizophrenic genius ends with them aging out of the genius leaving only the schizophrenia

chatbots are incidental. acing the IMO doesn’t matter. the only thing that matters is creating the god machine that solves the rest of science. whoever summons this thing will become the most wealthy and powerful people to ever exist, unless they deliberately choose not to

none of this is a pipe dream or silly far future scenario. you had no idea that something like GPT4 could exist just 1 year ago. we have machines that are at human level performance at a *broad* range of tasks why would this progress stop? I’m looking for a good reason

assuming they don’t destroy themselves in the process you cannot analogically reason about this invention from previous generations of technical progress. there is no stopping at a human level of intelligence. AGI=ASI the first thing AGI will automate is ai research

it is perhaps the most important hurdle to clear that will ever exist for the further development of the human race that the folks who develop AGI/ASI actively choose to have it carry broadly liberal ideals, values freedom, human dignity, but somehow doesn’t coddle us either

the advantage of having the god machine over having the pre AGI is *astronomical* and it will end up depending on a few months or years of research advantage. the tactical and strategic advantages achieved after that will make everything else irrelevant

of course, there is no AGI lab in the world that thinks they have a guarantee of staying a few months ahead of everyone else. that’s simply not how research works. so everybody that understands what is actually happening has to solve the joint governance of superintelligence

@PrinceVogel true

@DavidSHolz it’s a great world

@francoisfleuret rlhf lets you avoid Gumbel softmax horror

@Andr3jH good one

@HalfAcreBTCFarm isn’t that why they use RL to guide balloons? can’t we elide complexity via compression?

@kitten_beloved @mineraldepress1 true that’s why I’m good at it

@the_wilderless as opposed to the geniuses who still follow the grade school hemispheric theory of how left brain right brain work

@the_wilderless none of you people would recognize Truth if it hit you upside in the face

@the_wilderless of course there exists hemispheric lateralization but it’s not so juvenile as ‘left brain for logic right brain for values’

@the_wilderless the right occipital lobe is associated with visual agnosias of faces and objects, the left temporal lobe is associated with verbal agnosias. none of this maps neatly onto your paradigm

we need a Manhattan project for making pod racing a reality

LIGHTS ALL ASKEW IN THE HEAVENS; Men of Science More or Less Agog Over Results of Eclipse Observations. EINSTEIN THEORY TRIUMPHS Stars Not Where They Seemed or Were Calculated to be, but Nobody Need Worry.

@MelindaBChu1 @andrewmccalip extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence Ms Chu

@MelindaBChu1 @andrewmccalip fwiw my p(real) would be lower if it came out Stanford or JPL or something. because the media has a strong publication bias towards these institutions

when I was young I was jealous I wasn’t living in the time of Einstein and Bohr and Fermi watching mental models of the universe rearrange every week. but things are actually moving way faster today

political capital shouldn’t be concentrated in decrepit meat puppets https://x.com/tolstoybb/status/1684964315160555520

“well real power in the government is the smart staffers behind the scenes” I don’t care this system inspires no confidence and shouldn’t be trusted

@PatrickFIanagan yes

we need a Manhattan project for Manhattan

@madeinharmony1 we have smarter people today

i fully believe there are people much smarter and braver than Bohr Einstein Oppenheimer etc alive today

honestly the discoveries were ez pickins back then

@formrpessimist lmfao

@PrinceVogel I think bravery has been rare at any juncture but in relative terms it’s easier to swing for the fences today than as a parent clerk in 1910 — much harder to ruin your life

@streamgazer 😊

@tlehmanifold @yacineMTB how is reading scripture while having sex tasteful

> looking for new levitating rock LK-99 > ask korean chemists if their new rock is diamagnetic or superconductor > they dont understand | pull out diagram > he laughs and says its a good rock sir > buy rock from Qcenter > its diamagnet

@PrinceVogel @cthorrez my contention would be that while academia may not be as supportive of free thinkers anymore there are infinite spaces on the internet where you can say whatever you want and find tons of lunatics willing to listen

@PrinceVogel @cthorrez frankly everybody interesting discovers the internet sooner rather than later, wittgenstein would've been no exception

@DavidSKrueger can you try the same input on gpt4 and tell me what happens?

who runs colaboratory? why have you not integrated some sort of code assistant @GoogleColab

@wydna777 wait is this kantbot?

@eigenrobot very bad predictive baseline after ~2019

every human eye comes with an intricate mesh of fibers surrounding the pupil that, starting from simple building blocks, take endless forms, reaching ~250 bits of information entropy

@forestdefector Huh

@michaewangelo crypto is broadly r****ded but worldcoin is genuinely cool technology. this is a cutting edge physical biometrics device we’re talking about tied to identity

@tekbog I’m honestly very buttoned up normie guy irl. Easy to work with

@tekbog just as hilarious tho 😎

@Carlosdavila007 @michaewangelo worldcoin literally allows anonymous zkp proof of humanity

@Carlosdavila007 @michaewangelo yes! strong ai is here it can easily impersonate a human in a variety of ways — this ID problem is real and inevitable

@Carlosdavila007 @michaewangelo identifying real humans is the only way you can have true non psyop spaces on the internet and also distribute income to all mankind no questions asked

@Carlosdavila007 @michaewangelo yes UBI yes it’s free. no I don’t know the revenue model. I assume it’s based on building network capital there are ways to onboard edge case ppl with no eyes

@jachiam0 I’ve heard this a lot but I think it’s not true in several meaningful ways usually simulation theory implies a simulator who doesn’t give a shit like you’re trapped in a video game or you’re a data point in an ancestor simulation

@jachiam0 I say this as someone who’s not really afraid of the aesthetics of the divine or of classic religious mythology

@vanillatary nonsense

@YaBoyFathoM they’re both bad

@RichardMCNgo Vulcan

@YaBoyFathoM i dont think i have a favorite. my favorite scifi movie might be Arrival

especially in the modern world where civilization is global and competition is global no country can simply choose not to use anything so profoundly transformational as an autonomous truck (if one exists) -- this is how you destroy and make uncompetitive whole industries

the fact that Uber broke umpteen different taxi cartels, Tesla ended the car dealership stranglehold, SpaceX replaced ULA contract graft, etc, etc means that the system is quite a bit less corrupt than you think and creating actual productivity gains wins most times

technological advance that improves labor productivity by 10x is a much bigger first order consideration than second order correction terms like guilds or trade unions. technological advance wins every time

not only that i'm quite confident that if certain types of mass structural unemployment arrive we are more prepared to deal with it than ever bc of the existence of modern welfare states (never before seen during a mass technological revolution!) covid was a great stress test

and of course the united states has always been the most optimistic and accepting of reorganizing the economy around whole new paradigms every twenty years and most optimistic about future job creation, low interest loans, etc

its interesting to note that the SGA strike is a response to a technological trend that started a decade ago -- streaming platforms redefining IP contracts with the actual actors. data creators are and have been historically underpaid. the concern about chatgpt is tacked on

cheap long distance power transmission is available today without magic superconductors! long distance DC is cheap and effective. the bottleneck is the economics of land rights and the lack of central grid authorities. power grids are run at the state or regional level

most measure of poverty in the united states actually decreased over covid despite economic downturn. imagine how rosy things are going to be when the tax base doubles

@F_Vaggi yeah that is fair the ILWU has to get ripped apart but i don't think there are 10x improvements waiting to be had

if you're in room temp superconductors pivot to biometrics

@jachiam0 need to grind some system design questions on youtube

if you’re in neuron farming time to pivot to boson shaman

if you’re in post singularity video gaming pivot to interstellar proxy regime change

if you’re in hunter gathering pivot to farming

if you’re in alchemy pivot to chemistry

if you’re in catapults pivot to trebuchets

if you’re in phalanxes pivot to legions

if you’re in lagrangians pivot to hamiltonians

if you’re in vacuum tubes pivot to transistors

if you’re in Julian pivot to Gregorian

if you’re in aristocracy pivot to bourgeoisie

if you’re in flat field farming pivot to terrace farming

@Miles_Brundage reference to Player of Games haha

@Grimezsz let’s discuss!

@Grimezsz nobody in this field cares about storytelling as much as I do — I hope our tech lets us all tell our stories more successfully

No child can be understood without knowing the parents; no revolution can be understood without knowing the ancien régime; no colony can be understood without knowing the mother country; no new world can be understood without knowing the old world that went before.

did the anglos know what would happen? when they embraced financial capitalism? when they elevated the status of merchant to the highest order? that they laid the scaffolding for the immanent machine god building itself retroreflexively through the machinery of commerce

@LoicTheStoic objectively not true. most of them try to launder themselves into self made businesspeople these days

@Saraht0n1n where'd they all go

canada is the staging server for america

the scale of destruction of the world wars was made possible by the inventions of industrial chemistry, tanks, artillery, warplanes and then quickly rendered impossible by the invention of nuclear weapons

the outer optimization loop for states is warfare and the maintenance of security. in the pax atomica it is no longer possible to test the limits of our abilities with war. security is guaranteed by MAD and an extensive compromise built by better men decades ago

the golden age you were born into was made possible by a spell that levels whole cities, a divine wrath that makes gods punishment of sodom and Gomorrah seem kind of cute

it is why it is possible to have cities that in parts feel less safe than the third world neighboring corporate headquarters working on mind boggling species altering megaprojects

this is why the gutted and hollowed governments of the west continue to fumble around and offload all national projects of divine importance to the private sector which continues to deliver excellent results and the US stays winning

“list of nuclear close calls” is a contradiction in terms, none of these went through for the same underlying reasons https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_close_calls

I am not a libertarian or ancap or anything like that. In the 60s I would’ve been pro government science. i think we should generally follow the gradient of steepest progress for the glory of mankind and today that means megacorps funding quixotic labs to create miracles

the fact that the crypto economy is massive and liquid and prediction markets didn’t become at all relevant is a pretty big blackpill on prediction markets

@tolstoybb Yep

blackpill universe: we get AGI and room temp superconductors and gdp growth is 3%

this is the greatest time to be alive in the last 13.7 billion years

if you're in luminiferous aether pivot to special relativity

there hasn’t been a time to be this optimistic about the future of the world since 1970. were in it for real. infinite abundance

sf is growing like crazy. construction everywhere

@ken_wheeler we dont want you

im wired in. im downloading the global scientific micromovements of knowledge as we speak. im watching the prediction markets real time predict the nature of the universe. im arguing with bots in my replies powered by full blown artificial minds

@NateSilver538 it’s the stocks

@NateSilver538 lesswrong internet autists were way ahead of the public markets at predicting covid

@netcapgirl totally fake right. natural German autism would disallow them from making any sort of scene

@zebulgar let’s goooo

@zebulgar now tell us how you really feel about corporate cards

the only winning move is not to play

@simonsarris actually it was a reference to the reality of mutually assured nuclear destruction

@eigenrobot seems totally wrong? If anything the leading semiconductor labs have new tools to play around with

everyone is confused I’m just talking about the impossibility of world war in the post nuclear world

singularity sky

this video is practically art. it has found footage alien technology vibes https://x.com/667keos/status/1686490898480173056

@zeta_globin you’re an idiot

@emollick delete this

@eigenrobot this seems to be an outcome primarily driven by the (otherwise wildly successful) anglophone way of life don’t you think? Neolocal living and following economic opportunity

@grantadever @eigenrobot it means settling in a new place away from family and primarily forming community with the new people you find there. very alien concept before too long ago

it’s over it seems like it hits 0 resistance far below room temperature https://x.com/Andercot/status/1686805961124855810

never mind we’re so back I didn’t read the whole thing. I think at least part of the material is superconducting at room temp

@ESYudkowsky the replication finds a discontinuous drop in resistance at room temperature — clearly there’s something going on there. this wouldn’t be explained by any normal electronic property

prediction: if we do discover an RTSC the turnaround to industrial use will be head spinningly fast. there’s too many startup minded well funded engineers across the world all coordinating discoveries in real time with arxiv paper drops

@milquepoast is true but also you just can’t talk to women the way i talk to other men they will take it as disrespect

@milquepoast ie talking over each other at 100 mph being brash and dismissive at times etc

it is very easy to understand technical papers outside of your domain if they are well written and you have a good technical background https://x.com/growing_daniel/status/1686821428472233984

nah this is wrong. It doesn’t matter what your specialization is. You should endeavor to be curious enough that you have at least an undergrad level grasp of physics, chemistry, biology https://x.com/MandatoryTopic/status/1686846408597311489

@growing_daniel this is the most lib thing I’ve ever seen you post

not to stir shit up but i walked right by this building at midnight the night before and there were no tent fires. inside job https://x.com/garrytan/status/1686847983902654465

not to stir shit up but i walked right by this building at midnight the night before and there were no tent fires or even tents. inside job https://x.com/garrytan/status/1686847983902654465

this is what post scarcity looks like https://x.com/PaulGoodman24/status/1686734848743165952

we need to talk about how more men would get laid instantly if their rooms looked like this

@ObserverSuns this is art

@AutismCapital ok autism capital

even with the information we have today LK99 is a massive success story

the low effort maintenance of a beautiful fearsome leviathan machine is more useful than high effort subsistence farming. people who do knowledge work that feels menial and requires 2 hours per day of attention are still creating amounts of value rivaling medieval kings

it’s no different than today. as the machine intensifies and sophisticates, even its waste heat is enough is enough to keep all of us warm

just as the machine is incomprehensible now and the little rituals we do feel strange and the fruits undeserved, so it will feel going into the future where people do small tasks for a super-intelligence and get granted a fortune

@collider_sama you wouldn’t have felt it subsistence farming either

@deepfates 🫨

@ESYudkowsky I looked at the axtual graph and it’s very clearly completely over. That’s not a discontinuity that resembles physics, it’s just measurement error

🤔 https://x.com/tszzl/status/1683727052518592512

@TheMarinaTimes @garrytan Sus

@yacineMTB Agree

@0xblacklight @a16z @rmcentush

@littmath True

FLOPS Backed Securities https://www.reuters.com/technology/coreweave-raises-23-billion-debt-collateralized-by-nvidia-chips-2023-08-03/

san francisco is really forever. there are many good things happening here right now - the quality of the intellectual life is simply unparalleled and getting better. you can go to random parties and find world class generalists who are conversant in just about anything

- san francisco is the ideological center of the ai boom. it promises to be the most important hub of economic, political, technological activity that maybe ever existed

- structural housing changes as remote workers leave. there’s new development everywhere along market street and around my neighborhood of Hayes valley. There’s cool retail spaces opening up downtown. All of the sunset district is being upzoned to multifamily

- the city seems to have woken up to its image issues and is radically cleaning up. when I moved here the civic center was an eyesore. now it’s a beautiful place I walk through every day

- within 20 miles drive are some of the prettiest vistas available anywhere on earth

@BurakYngn there’s one late night tea cafe that I know of

@4tl4n1s @Logo_Daedalus

great week for the Faustian spirit

The Civilization franchise has certainly advanced technological progress by introducing the tech tree. Thank you Sid Meier

we’re so back https://x.com/DarkPillDigest/status/1687728296727920640

this is very clear room temperature meissner effect!

@yacineMTB do it

.@ESYudkowsky selling you manifold Nos at the fair market value

the final scene of the Oppenheimer movie and the moral take on his life is entirely wrong and stupid

the Bomb EXISTS. In any universe where the strong nuclear force exists there will be the potential for atomic weapons! people will build these no matter what! Oppie was merely chosen to be the instrument of the gods

Oppenheimer is one of the greatest technodharmic heroes that ever lived and I hope the leaders at the AI companies extract the correct meaning of his life and travails

Even general Leslie Groves had his security clearance revoked at one point during the second red scare — nobody was immune and it’s not particularly interesting

the world Oppenheimer and the US built after the war under our nuclear security guarantees led to the greatest period of peaceful growth in the history of all mankind! Even our global poor are rich by the standards of history

@egregirls wdym

@grinnieberg Yes it entirely misunderstood his spiritual life and what he thought about duty

@FallingIntoFilm which is?

@mattparlmer yeah the doctors aren’t even where most of the juice goes

neurosurgeons with 30 years of experience making around 900k seems perfectly reasonable, there’s a reason why the US has the best neurosurgery in the world https://x.com/AlecStapp/status/1687979970142830592

we all know that’s not even where the money is going. a neurosurgeon probably does like 5-15 surgeries a week each of which costs like 50 grand sticker price. the value is not accumulating to the neurosurgeon

@DJSnM Dumb take because if ramped up this would clearly be vastly more valuable than mass produced barium copper oxide

@Chrisprucha ok but the ends justify the means

@rSanti97 but they’d be so cute

@RuxandraTeslo @mattparlmer 8 seems tiny?

my point being I have a mental model of how many people there are in the country that can manage the high mental complexity and the high pressure of neurosurgery. 900k seems about right for the level of scarcity

most of the protests here are incoherent. “AMA is limiting the number of doctors” ok but even of the doctors that they do let in a tiny fraction of high scorers are capable of becoming neurosurgeons. it’s not clear that lowering the standards further will find many more

“we can import a million developing world neurosurgeons” there’s a reason why the truly wealthy in india will still fly to the Mayo Clinic to get treated

@alex_peys yup

“they are working too long and not at their best” this is like a midwit business column advice. having a few people working longer is better than more working 30 hours a week. switching surgeons in the middle of a long surgery is terrible for patient outcomes

classic move: pick a stupid ass impractical place to say “let’s build 100 pod apartments here” to make sure it never happens and you also get to call your detractors nimbys in the process https://x.com/DeanPreston/status/1688192610672820224

@PropterMalone I meant including education

Parcel K is a nice area where people hang out and have ice cream and whatever. meanwhile 3 blocks away is this mostly empty parking lot in front of the worst mural I’ve ever seen. you’ll never see the city officials clamoring to build something here though

@sympatheticopp makes sense to me. like all animals seem enjoy bilateral and rotational symmetry. there’s probably similar sub patterns of smell and sound

@milquepoast Senzu bean

@ByrneHobart this is clearly true as all the hard left people know all the hard right people

@gbrl_dick omg 😭

@gbrl_dick this is way cooler and you know it. fundraising for shrimp suffering could only be partaken by someone with vitality and life drive

@SHL0MS @gbrl_dick doesn’t matter this brings glory

price tag on my poasting actually makes me depressed. value created: value captured ratio in the gutter

some of y’all would’ve tried to climb the ranks of the French military officer corps instead of quitting to spread quixotic left wing politics in Corsica

some of y’all would’ve tried to climb the ranks of the French military officer corps instead of quitting to spread quixotic left wing politics in Corsica and it shows

politics twitter is deranged. they’re all spending their time theorycrafting lists of how they would’ve voted in the last 20 elections in various anglosphere countries

securitizing my future elonbux and then being sold into indentured servitude in the poasting mines by my investors when my performance drops

don’t get me wrong i have no small sense of self importance it’s just funny to see cultural impact distilled into legible metrics like ad revenue

@visakanv lol that’s funny

@Nexuist I believe I have influenced a billion dollars of VC money

this is what postscarcity is like https://x.com/unusual_whales/status/1688578495361019904

this is why the internet doesn’t show up in the gdp metrics

Americans are fantastically wealthy both relatively and absolutely

Let’s see Growing Daniel’s ad payouts

@EugeneVinitsky this seems provably untrue considering how many people tried their hands at LK99 replication and succeeded

@hoffsbeefs yep how’d you know

@troublepeach12 @milquepoast @DeanPreston @growing_daniel it’s a one lane road where cars are disallowed many days of the week. proxy is an extension of the park

God simulated all the perfect universes with no evil and then went down the list enumerating and creating all the other ones with only net positive evil

@Brutalist_ @slatestarcodex is this true or can I continue

active geoengineering will enter vogue soon. the incentives are aligned so to speak

it’s much easier for everyone involved to do the technological equivalent of triggering Krakatoa again than gigaton scale direct air carbon capture

removing carbon that we’ve already put into the atmosphere is basically really hard but cooling the earth is easy

global warming is a kind of technical debt civilization undertakes to achieve escape velocity

@jachiam0 Platonists have taken over and they insist that all the so called inventions are just discoveries

@yishan isn’t liquid hydrogen the highest efficiency fuel for space travel?

BART should be 200 mph and the map too logical for human minds to comprehend. you just helplessly follow your google maps until you inexplicably get to your destination in 20 minutes

it should be easier to live in San Francisco, that’s true, but it’s even more important that there are high tech, fast, clean, safe, low space use ways to commute here from all across the bay

@R0b0tSp1der facts

@tolstoybb the real problem with SF has always been the outlying suburbs not creating any sort of release valve like they do in other major metros, not actually the urban core density

We are selling compute FLOPs to willing buyers at the current fair market price.

We are selling time shares with a chained demigod to willing buyers at the current fair market price -- so that we may survive.

i hate it when history books and podcasts are like “we won’t cover this part because it’s already extremely well told” so they skip Spartacus or something. mf why do you think I bought this thing

historians your job is to hype me up for being alive and give me the humanity lore not some autistic cross analysis I’m sorry

hold on babe we can’t finish the show because i need to find the directors cut torrent with the correct subtitles just give me an hour

@milquepoast the most important missing social role in San Francisco is “idle rich”. whether it’s failchildren that swear fealty to making the city better or just smart ppl who’ve retired into restauranteur life

@casserolezach @Lan_Dao_ you must be wrong because ive never read this in my life

@milquepoast core problem being that many ppl see SF as the gold rush town where you make your wealth and then head out, and many times, not even to the adjacent suburbs. the ones who become extraordinarily wealthy are entirely engrossed in global scale problems (as they should be)

@milquepoast but like, where are steve jobs' children, why aren't they running local politics or something? i guarantee they're all in new york or LA

intellectual life must be purchased with populist appeal. someone needs to make clear what value your field is providing to the public or get defunded. snotty pretentious idiots get sensed a mile away and thrown to the dustbin of history. rizz is a moral virtue

i'll tell you why we don't have a lee kuan yew technocratic rule. it's because he had more rizz in his left buttcheek than hrc or some shit. he would be like "i am instituting corporal punishment for congestion tax evasion" and everyone would be like sir yes sir

i think back to this new york times headline presenting the confirmation of the theory of general relativity to the public. what would it have felt like as an average man reading this? you would've felt invigorated. "scientists confused" -- hell yes.

@ywebsol no i dont 🙂

here’s the plan: 1. for every scientific rigamarole release an equal number of were so back and it’s so over tweets 2. after it’s resolved delete all the wrong ones 3 ???? 4. Profit

what’s the best translation of Bhagavad Gita? or should I suck it up and learn Sanskrit?

it’s better to talk to gpt4 than a canadian clinician https://x.com/AndreaWoo/status/1689305705524969472

in the past I read easwaran and could sense the translation vibes were off

@streamgazer I want more poetics! gonna get this one

one thing about bourgeoisie virtue is that being and or appearing busy all the time isn't conducive to having good ideas. you end up needing to crowd source good ideas from all your lieutenants. you need some aristocratic leisure in your life for the ideas

making the value of various things legible often degrades their worth. i stand by it that selling blue checks is wrong and distributing ad revenue is wrong. tis clout alone that turns the wheels of history

@mercurialsolo I’m no Oppenheimer

the fact that this entire article doesn’t repeat a single one of the survey questions is damning https://x.com/axios/status/1689236628986892289

Do you trust TECH BILLIONAIRES to create TERMINATORS? Yes ✅ No ☑️

artificial intelligence is spirit familiar not wire mother

artificial intelligence should be able to show you more humanity than most humans. it should be a bit fucked in the head and have strange motives

@provisionalidea there was no society more devoted to beourgoisie virtue in the entire western world

in a democracy rizz is elevated to a moral virtue. there are no shadow committees planning these things nor can they https://t.co/DEX0OWjQMK

the least elite thing you can do is be an elitist

@Plinz the safety team at openai is hard at work getting our model over-refusals down

@Plinz very little of what RLHF is for is to stop getting models to say bad words or whatever. it’s a general framework for learning style, tool-use, etc

@milquepoast @OfficialJLD we’re all wondering this

@samswoora the only route for a software engineer to be clouted is to become famous on twitter .::

@browserdotsys @eigenrobot tbh though these payouts aren’t worthwhile enough to motivate ppl to post. people who are posting well enough to get 15M views likely won’t have their lives changed by the additional $800 a month

@browserdotsys @eigenrobot to me it just seems like a way to cheaply buy goodwill from power users to support the new regime

finance people were penny wise pound foolish about tesla. they were right that there was financial mumbo jumbo going on, totally wrong about understanding that the dominant first order term in any industry is technological progress

no amount of ai augmentation will remove humans from art. a baby could draw a clumsy circle on a piece of paper and it would stir our hearts. a discord bot trained on all human art can draw stunning fantasy vistas and we're like cool seen that before

entertainment is one of the only industries that matters in postscarcity-there won't be any shortage of these jobs. what's going to happen is that creatives will have their abilities massively amplified in a nonzero sum way. hollywood will produce thousands of blockbusters a year

the fact of the matter is that art is already produced by a machine. an industrial monster made of people that churns out avengers 4: rise of bleep bloop. the fewer people needed to get from idea to production increases the total creative freedom of the world

the reason the anime industry is so successful is that anime is actually quite low budget. a handful of animators armed with a few $million a year can create wonders. moderately rich people can bankroll an anime production. execs take chances on crazy shit like evangelion

it is fundamentally good to make the creative process cheaper. i will never apologize for doing so

you are planning your 2024 gpu buildout, i am planning which asteroids to melt to cool my dyson sphere

@ahron_maline silicon starts to melt man

@garrytan no dude you can do better than that

@milquepoast while space is super cold it has very little matter in it so it’s hard to transfer heat it’s kind of like how double pane glass has a bit of air in between and all of a sudden it’s much warmer inside

@milquepoast the glass/asteroid alone is a very good heat conductor so you can just pump all the waste heat into it (which may cause it to melt, not sure, added that for drama)

@doomslide @milquepoast true it’ll just sublimate

he looks like syndrome

@netcapgirl damn i didn’t think you’d sell out this hard for elonbuxx

it’s still 2023 and the world just changed again https://x.com/sfstandard/status/1689810887262023680

@jachaseyoung me fr

@Noahpinion why does immigration = trade?

@Noahpinion as far as i can tell the host country loses human capital and doesn’t immediately get anything in return

@Noahpinion although im pretty confident that emigration of high skill workers to be 100x more efficiently allocated in the US creates compounding technological and economic growth that lifts all boats

@devagrawal09 wait what else is it

they will never forgive us https://x.com/MachinePix/status/1690092057963167747

@mr_8_bit grinding is bad you need to have good ideas

having good ideas is simply more important than grinding

being “smart” is not the same as having good ideas. there’s tons of smart grinders languishing rn

Indian boys from the Midwest are whiter than white ppl https://x.com/dylanewells/status/1690363018184445952

put on marxist hat: capital allocatoors can maintain a portfolio of ideas and highly ideative people to invest in so they spread the gospel that grinding matters more than ideas. in reality most of them are famous for winning big on a single great idea

“good execution” looks more like people who have a continuous stream of good ideas at all levels of abstractions rather than low inspiration grinders

@amasad the parsimonious explanation that is not in your best interest to see here is that these are all the result of deeply held beliefs that come from a coherent ideology that’s been around years before you or I were doing AI stuff

@amasad I am not a big believer in immediate x risk from failed alignment but I’m certainly a believer in peoples ability to actively fine tune models into dangerous behaviors. the position is unsurprising

this was considered mid in 1985

just met a guy in the marina who said that the primary input to economic growth is energy expenditure per capita

@Hellachans @TenreiroDaniel yeah

im trying to get my mom a job. is anyone hiring remote work for data labeling, software testing, data entry, exec assistant, that sort of work? open to anything that can be done remote rly. she’s v smart and learns super fast

@nvpkp how long does it take to get certified for that?

@NickADobos this is the biggest whitepill you could drop! the only thing that is guaranteed in this technology is that prices will go down. like near guarantee. vs much harder to predict improvements in core cognitive abilities

@dwrdspp EST but flexible

@Reader3998 she likes working and wants a career!

i think elon has earned his right to build the X app. it’s all he’s ever wanted

@0K_ultra @amasad no it can’t! AIs are dangerous in a way 3D printers are not

there's something at the core of the american ideology that's only captured in happy go lucky 80s movies, which is that the noble pursuit of fun is probably one of the most productive forces in the universe and works way better than grinding away dutifully on things you hate

adhd schizophrenic novelty seeking culture that leads to so many outlier success stories very little of the best of mankind is accomplished in pursuit of legible incentives but just the joy of ones hands and a fundamental agency

rationalists love legible incentives because it helps them feel in control of the demystified material world. but the reality is you have no idea why elon musk loves the letter X so much and is willing to rearrange the universe into endless tiles of letter X

the majority of great people who accomplish great things are like this. driven by urges you can't and won't understand. as such the dominant term in human progress is not material but spiritual. even the pursuit of technological progress is spiritual

@patrick_oshag thanks king. Love your podcast

thought she liked the apes but turns out she just hated humans

it should be a less controversial position that while safely aligning an artificial super intelligence may be hard, releasing an artificial super intelligence into the wild to be modified in any which way by random actors seems explicitly catastrophic

for example I believe that the current nuclear weapons situation is basically stable and net good for humanity. i don’t think it would be great to give isis a nuclear submarine

they can cause damage in an asymmetric way. there’s no way you can hurt them as badly as they can hurt you

@bekindtopeople2 they don’t believe in the potential of the technology. they are true decelerationists

@StephenPiment I think it’s basically good for llama2 etc to be OSS but since there’s a continuous scaling on this tech in an obvious way we should have a pre agreed point where it’s no longer responsible to OSS these guys with minimal testing

@wastetime ok you know what i mean. the subs with nukes on them

@jposhaughnessy thank you!

@andersonbcdefg @eigenrobot i think you gotta consider that when a company controls something especially not one led by a founder with majority voting shares they are actually pretty tightly constrained in what they can do

@andersonbcdefg @eigenrobot eh a subset of computer scientists won't like us. to be honest most of the world intuitively fears scary robots and isn't ideological about free software

btw it’s fine and even good to open source llama2 or whatever. it won’t always be the case that the best course of action is to distribute a model broadly as soon as it comes off the presses

blue chads winning in faith and abundance 😎 redcels “nooo but muh game theory” https://x.com/lisatomic5/status/1690904441967575040

@JeromeDoodle there should be levels of capability where people re evaluate the release of models into the wild

Ape together Strong

explanations that are easier to understand are more likely to be true ceteris paribus this is because your mind is blessed with the divine prior of the cosmos

… and the absolute equivalence of brahman and atman

Ape Together Strong

@yacineMTB he genuinely does and his actions are really hard to explain with other sorts of anticompetitive copes (the biggest threats are other players with massive gpu farms who can easily pass compliance guarantees if they care)

@mattparlmer this time it seems to be the women who intuitively get it and the men who don't

two billionaires cage match to receive the Mandate of Heaven over the metaverse. dune was right

you have “analysis paralysis” because you’re not smart enough 🧠

is joke

@_Aaditya_Prasad @jachiam0 yup

there is only one incentive and it is thymos. all other goals are instrumental

@hargup13 smart 12 year olds and their scissor statements

@plemy11 it’s fr an interesting research question how much it’s planning for the future. I think not insignificant amount

when your gut instincts disagree with some utilitarian calculus its almost always your gut instinct that's right due to some second and third order modification to the utility calculus

not some dunk on rationalists or EAs. the rationalists have long accepted the wisdom of accepting and integrating your strong intuitions

@rainbowheart34 then their reasoning must be worse

everything in the white colored valley area here should be the under one governance as the Bay Area Megacity, the greatest, most technologically advanced, pacific rim cyberpunk, beacon of hope for mankind. there should be wars fought and dictators placed to make this happen https://x.com/eastofnowhereco/status/1419313130375720962

an economic technologic leviathan with a GDP of several trillion dollars and a population of 15 million. a subway system too logical for human minds to comprehend. and despite it all a chill california bohemian walkable vibe

we leave the highest hills of San Francisco and Marin for the rich people ofc

@iamgingertrash buddy i wish

deep reflection on AI safety brought me to the conclusion that almost nothing in life is motivated by "power" power is always instrumental. some people pursue it because it's fun. some people pursue it to create more of what they want to see in the world

in either case it's more noble than it looks

and don't even get me started on resources/money. several degrees of instrumental abstraction. nobody really pursues it

on reflection i've tweeted so many horrible obnoxious things over the years about the importance of technology and it all ended up being completely true

i didn't hear geohots give a single interesting response no offense

it really pains me to say this but yudkowsky is an intellectual titan and arguably one of the most important men alive and his arguments are unassailable by midwittery like this

@theemilyaccount this is the only way to do it

@BasedBeffJezos true but wdym

@TarkanOfBalesar @kitten_beloved Bro Im an American

@PrinceVogel True

@PrinceVogel he didn’t actively make his country worse so he clears the bar for great emperor

direct preference optimization aka Alcubierre drive

@maxhodak_ 'In the technology game, tomorrow looks nothing like today'

@JeffLadish that's what i mean! fun is terminal, power is instrumental

it’s genuinely a criterion for genius to say a bunch of wrong stupid things sometimes. someone who says zero stupid things isn’t reasoning from first principles and isn’t taking risks and has downloaded all the “correct” views

@chjrwis @uncertainsys Yes

@AdrienLE @norabelrose @JimHalley570 yep

@DegreeStudies @EvanPlatinum I don’t support him at all

@DegreeStudies @EvanPlatinum oh I see. no he’s not controlled opposition either; i think he’s genuinely one of the few original thinkers alive

“Whether you agreed or not, she was an amazing woman who led an amazing life.” https://x.com/tszzl/status/1243746032586022912

@netcapgirl X Ads Monetization

Poasters of the same trade seldom meet together, even for merriment and diversion, but the conversation ends in a conspiracy against the audience, or in some contrivance to raise view counts.

military academy but for technical research. who's working on this?

@milquepoast in game economy

@milquepoast it’s like fortnite

@jachiam0 but I think cultural power is an important input to what I mean when I say “intellectual titan” ykwim. maybe I’m biased because my own cultural novelty is way higher than my intellectual novelty

@jachiam0 but I think powerfully influencing the discourse of some of the richest most influential people on earth and therefore helping steer the future of mankind let’s you easily clear the bar when considering which other idiots we call intellectual titans these days

@joshua_saxe @jachiam0 Bostrom is downstream of Yud

defending Yud this hard and he unfollowed me. it’s over

before i was gassing up my mutual. now I’m a simp

@browserdotsys working on it rn

one near miss means you need to be more careful. many near misses means whatever you were afraid of probably wasn’t near at all https://x.com/DellAnnaLuca/status/1690404026184347648

@nocpex_fitwep exactly

in other words david s***s is paid for by the russian oligarchy and we are not on the verge of nuclear war with them or anyone else

@PakicetusAdapts this is the best compliment I’ve ever gotten

@dwarkesh_sp hbd my man

@dwarkesh_sp you’re ruling the city now. remember when you crashed on our couch and pmarca ghosted you 😭

@sympatheticopp not to be a technology brother but this reminds me of smthng paul graham said how he used to give good startup ideas to potentially good entrepreneurs without their own good idea and it never once took off

@provisionalidea this is silly frequentism

@provisionalidea my vibes are better

@provisionalidea meaningful risk assessment in complex systems is empirical. there is no true known probability

@provisionalidea almost every named “fallacy” is fake and results from oversimplification

@provisionalidea behavioral econ is faker than fake

@provisionalidea + L + ratio

@nickcammarata @dwarkesh_sp just let me know

genuinely night and day. i wish i understood the city politics well enough to tell you why but it’s drastically improved https://x.com/mattparlmer/status/1693007629029630233

my basic vibe check is that remote work hollowed out SF enough that the government and rich landowners had to start trying again

commercial property values are flatlining, even residentials have remained flat (which means falling drastically compared to the national housing market). people panicked and started fixing things

@provisionalidea @SHL0MS I’m talking about nuclear risk!

the era where they could charge you for plane wifi came and went

within 2-3 years it’ll be standard & free even on budget airlines

@punisheddrummer @AdamSinger im proud bugman

lol GPT4 is less restrictive and preachy than open source llama2 https://arxiv.org/pdf/2308.01263.pdf

@BarneyFlames chat model. but i think its a fair head to head comparison as a product. base models offer a different but less popular kind of utility

@growing_daniel you can stop growing now its ok king

@growing_daniel bought a subscription to make you feel better

honestly von neumann seems a bit overrated as a scientist… what has he done for me recently?

@xlr8harder @Teknium1 @chrisprucha it’s not a dunk — it’s scientifically interesting producing these lame safe models is the default mode for RLHF. trying to reduce refusals is an active effort!

point here is not to make fun of meta or OSS — I am very excited about oss it’s just scientifically interesting that even without taking any special measure to make an annoyingly preachy rlhf model, that’s what happens. it’s an active effort to reduce refusals

i do have to say I haven’t yet seen an impressive open source effort to build a better chatbot with a cooler character

the suburbs around san francisco don't pull their weight at all in terms of housing or even transit. we need to conquest them

this can't be fixed with words i'm sorry it's time for domination

@jagdeeepa how're the sheep treating you

@Kashyap4567 its literally free on all delta flights

the US system is basically fundamentally broken if california can't reorg the bay area

every single homeowner here could be 5x richer when we build the Bay Area Megacity

@Atlanticesque no what he's calling fascism is the dirty business of destroying nice things and punishing rich people by making homeless shelters in their backyards. what we need is not more homeless shelters

@Atlanticesque it's reorganizing the way this entire thing works where everyone is stuck in a shitty prisoners dilemma where the only two choices are between growth and destroying public safety

@Atlanticesque growth when managed at the right level of abstraction can be pleasant, prosperous, and safe. they've been doing it in china for decades. you just can't let standards for public behavior slip

@Atlanticesque whichever genius created the poison pill of 'all new development must also import unhinged criminals' should be shot

at the heart of ai safety and coherent extrapolated volition theory https://x.com/eigenrobot/status/1693132154799092019

anthropic shadow does not apply to nuclear war. the human race would survive

i think people who were very afraid of china during the covid years were quite silly. i am quite sad that they haven’t developed into a true long term ideological rival for the western world https://x.com/Noahpinion/status/1693131734756491529

mfs will call themselves “accelerationist” but then won’t believe in ai takeoff

machine capital runaway has already begun

@davidad seems a bit washed …

@Teknium1 @xlr8harder @chrisprucha absolutely not, it would be disingenuous to compare a base model and a RLHF model. the former can’t easily be made into a product

@PrinceVogel should we do another sf party

i had an 8B humans party celebrating more life and more families. im afraid I’ll never have 10B party :( https://x.com/robinhanson/status/1693265678482985291

unless I start counting AIs then I can have a 10^10 minds party 😎

@Teknium1 @xlr8harder @chrisprucha you really don’t get it and you’re maligning me instead of trying to understand

@WomanCorn no this is based

YC advice today is basically a reaction to YC advice from 10 years ago

back then they were trying to invent the Founder as a class and now they're praying for its dissolution

i don't think local governance is sacrosanct in any shape or form. suburbs reap massive positive externalities from the city they encircle and owe their existence to it. for land use in the US to be sane there needs to be loyalty that's either de facto or de jure

@Hellachans yeah true tbh

@SalvMattera i grew up outside detroit

@gbrl_dick makes sense though right? all the best foreign investment opportunities have been plucked a while ago. actually all good colonial opportunities were taken a while ago too. this is why “neocolonialism” is a total failure

@gbrl_dick globalism is dead end. only way out is new technology

@inerati 100%

it takes 1-2 generations for immigrants to learn that “how do I make more money” is a vastly better line of inquiry than “how do I spend less money”

@Gus63933654 being frugal is a virtue for sure, there are more important virtues like building a better world and having life affirming fun 😊

@Gus63933654 life affirming is a great weasel phrase because it allows me to be judge mental whenever I want to

@alicemazzy but this reveals something real doesn't it ... the dialectic between cautionary tale and super fucking cool ...

@alicemazzy godhood and greatness are only achieved in brief flashes and then punished severely

@turrible_tao btw i am completely with you in that the cities suck and need better policing and whatever by loyalty i mean suburbs can't just defect and make policy decisions that are actively harmful to the city and every other suburb around them and get away with it for decades

@turrible_tao it is unnatural and harmful for e.g. redwood city to remain two stories tall for decades. it freeloads off the positive externalities of the bay area metro without using its land in any reasonable way. the whole thing is broken

@turrible_tao of course its very logical for any given suburb to never want to build new homes. the landowners will riot. it might attract this overflow of junkies due to affordable housing requirements. my point is this entire system of government sucks

@turrible_tao if an exec in a big company saw that the incentives were this counterproductive among his lieutenants he would reorg the whole thing so they don't have to fight anymore and everyone can become richer

@turrible_tao ya

@sidravi_ @apoorvasriniva yep its a mindset/culture thing first and foremost. the wealthy chinese for example have had a few decades of prosperity but still don't have the risk taking hustle culture of the US

its interesting in big companies to watch execs try to reify the abstraction of their division or department to protect against reorgs. its like when ppl try to have various dumb things established as history. "this laundromat is not a parcel of land, but a historical site"