@mattparlmer True but I think reasonable people can disagree where the line for something to be preserved rather than reused is. Likely much of the YIMBY/NIMBY discourse revolves around this
@Altimor The timeline algorithm filters out most posts anyway, or ranks them very low. I only see posts from my mutuals and accounts that I interact with often, with a random smattering from the other ~4000 accounts
@dickcheneyscou1 There’s this mind blowing article showing that GPT-2 can play chess at a mediocre level. In all seriousness, it’s not very good, but it is GENERAL
@dickcheneyscou1 yeah I get the feeling we have no clue what the upper limits of the current paradigm is, and that the people saying AGI is far off have as little idea as the ones saying it’s close
@dbeffert@Noahpinion There is no point signaling anything if we don’t stand by our words. Just look at Syria.
“Our words are backed by nuclear weapons” - Civ 2 Gandhi
@flanatok@ne0liberal We’re taking Joe Rogan’a version of insane. I.e 10 million youtube hits instead of 2 million. Bernie hit top 5 popularity for JRE podcasts
@flanatok@ne0liberal He’d be interested in someone like Biden just for the novelty of having the next president of the United States on stream. It’s quite exciting. I know Rogan, he likes to feel like he’s got his fingers on the pulse
@Hypoborean1@stern_tomer@jdcmedlock@TankieSanders I’d say it’s axiomatic that if you aren’t doing security level analysis and buying a share of massive stock flows, then you’ve interfered with the price signal. It’s the same as purchasing a mortgage bond without knowing anything about the underlying mortgages
Had an extremely vivid dream last night until I noticed a copy of the The Winds of Winter lying around. Immediately woke up bc that book being published is too unbelievable even for my fantasies
@Cullen_OK imo the lesson of deep learning has always been about gaining humbleness re: human cognition. It's possible to design functions that can navigate complex systems successfully with only a bare minimum understanding of the substrate
@Cullen_OK a typical human not only navigates but thrives in systems that would take lifetimes to understand the real underlying principles (if they even exist)
@NickMeier21 1/ I agree that the SV technolibertarians have a sureness of step that comes from making a lot of money very quickly. that self-confidence leads them to gloss over major problems and they can be somewhat brusque in addressing the downsides.
@NickMeier21 2/ but the approval ratings for the big tech companies are sky high. even DEMS trust companies like amazon more than they trust gov't institutions. the hate for big tech in progressive circles is just not representative of americans at large.
https://x.com/johnrobb/status/1055140489723330563
@Noahpinion It’s not for no reason state governments in India have an immense amount of power and veer very far ideologically from the national consensus
@Hypoborean1 while the plough seems simple in retrospect, it's one of those things that requires a massive paradigm shift to conceive of. I don't know if its something a complete novice to the "farming problem" would think of in minutes.
@ClayShentrup@DaltonKern@Noahpinion@wmcintyre84 the distributional effect is identical given UBI clawbacks*, so income based taxation. the difference is that NIT feels like a handout and is means tested, whereas UBI feels like a god given right -- you're a citizen, you make $12k a year
@koaleszenz@Hypoborean1 isn't the point of these heuristics that they evolved rather than were "discovered"? possibly no different than the memetic evolution that results in people being disgusted with cannibalism or incest
@Hypoborean1@koaleszenz by benefiting his brother, who may be carrying some portion of that distribution? the link is tenuous among all the other evolutionary noise, but it's there. there's also evidence that gay sex is just pro-social, lol
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17146141
Peter Thiel, supposedly a Christian, pouring hundreds of millions into defeating death makes no sense to me. He seems to call himself a Christian only because it’s the contrarian position in Silicon Valley lol
@sonyasupposedly it’s kind of interesting in a postrat way to think of books as sacred though. my grandma always used to tell me to say sorry when if she caught me accidentally stepping on a book lol
@skdh@paulg Fair enough, I meant “why has no newspaper tried this”. I suspect the answer is that some of them experiment with it and found the results lacking
@PhilipPullman I’m not sure I quite understand your position on fairy stories. Are you saying the secret commonwealth is real? Or that it’s more fun to believe there’s stuff we can’t explain? Or something else entirely?
@NeoLibBen Most of the US is ruled by internet service monopolies, so there is actually good cause for this. I once did the math and we pay something like 10,000x the data rate as internet users in India. That being said idk if government would fix it
@howling_richard@dril_gpt2@kingdomakrillic The bigger model lends its better understanding of language. It’s pretrained on terabytes of text from the internet. The fine tuning at the end with dril tweets is less significant
@howling_richard@dril_gpt2@kingdomakrillic You can fix this with high learning rates probably. After all, why else would the account owner move from GPT-small to GPT-medium if there was no positive effect?
Super Pumped is basically page after page of Uber skillfully fighting off regulatory capture and taxi cartels to serve customers that desperately want Uber, and mike Isaac trying to convince you this is bad somehow
@Noahpinion@red_boxer0 technology develops as it becomes necessary. It's not like Velcro was an impossible technology until NASA had a use for it. for most of these things, there's just no demand for the R&D
@Noahpinion (2) is basically a strawman
(1) is more accurate and you're greatly underestimating our current technology under the right economic pressures
but (3) is more important: it would be the greatest adventure on which Man has ever embarked. civilization needs frontiers
@sonyasupposedly Funniest thing is when you see an account have the *same epiphany* multiple times over the course of a few months/years and repeat that they’ve just now realized this
@JustJake The UI is insanely good but that doesn’t seem to matter too often. Most people agree the Snapchat layout is terrible and it’s a smash hit anyway. Same with Facebook tbh
@dickcheneyscou1 TikTok is the western version of the ByteDance product. I don’t think it’s available in China. Plus there’s all sorts of ways to verify that info. (Internet traffic is public)
@mattparlmer This is definitely true. The birth of AGI will be as momentous an occasion as first contact. It’s all in google’s interests to hype up their positional importance but he will be right in the fullness of time
@mattparlmer I also think getting to AGI is a matter of increasing processing speed and incremental improvements in neural net technologies which is a hot take
@rplevy I’d say it’s matter of degree and not fundamental differences. This AI is cross purpose — it also scored state of the art on question and answer and text summarization tasks. It really does have a deeper understanding of language than other models
@rplevy It only has a half billion parameters. That’s not even 1% of 1% of the storage capacity of the human brain. It cannot just memorize the entire internet: it must interpolate and build underlying abstractions
@mattparlmer Duplicate labor is an understatement. I remember at the very end of my internship at fb, my manager told me “yeah I did the same intern project when I started here”. I was like wtf
@mattparlmer The one nice thing is that the dev and ops tools are space age stuff. You will never find better looking dashboards or text editor plugins
@similaralterity@mattparlmer I mean I've heard plenty of NNs are "just" this or "just" that, but what anyone has yet to convince me of is that human brains are more than just function approximators that are very good at approximating a certain type of policy
@similaralterity@mattparlmer you're right but there are 10,000s of researchers (more every year due to the $$$) across the world iterating on these metasystems. every year sees feats that would've been considered impossible a half decade ago
@similaralterity@mattparlmer the only other instance of intelligence we know of is biological intelligence, which was developed with a stupid brute force algorithm (genetic) via enormous compute power (Real World™). There is good reason to suspect we will get to AGI without understanding the theory
@homsiT@mattparlmer what gets me is that they did plan on using my project, but didn't even consider adapting that original software to something more general purpose. when developer time is a commodity, nobody cares about efficiency and nobody wants to maintain old code
@QiaochuYuan This is nonsense tbh. You’re trying to recognize patterns in what amounts to neural noice, and implying that idiopathic depression isn’t real
@QiaochuYuan satisfaction is maladaptive. Satisfied beings don’t work hard to increase their chances of reproducing. We should expect the default state of humans to be dissatisfied. don’t need some past traumas to explain. Idiopathic means what you said and more: it implies no one’s at fault
@AliceFromQueens thank god it's only bernie and his campaign that live and die at the whims of twitter mobs. biden could give a rat's ass what people online are saying about him
@sonyasupposedly@visakanv Here’s the deal: popular business culture now revolves around Silicon Valley. Every MBA and typical highly networked type learns about the Silicon Valley mythos of the failed social norm and worshipping of savants. *normies* know this stuff. repeating it online is just irritating
@sonyasupposedly@visakanv To not be annoying in this medium you have to make truly novel social observations, which are usually best delivered in an implicit way by comedians both online and offline. When everyone acts like the suffering child genius, no one is a suffering child genius
@sonyasupposedly@visakanv I may be missing some context on this conversation but I’m just naming my own grievances with this corner of twitter. Prefer VC twitter at this point because they hide behind fewer euphemisms
@sonyasupposedly@visakanv The ethos of twitter to me is “we are all watching humanity evolve and making funny commentary on it” in the era in which most of us have realized *there’s no grand design* and are struggling to find meaning and community anyway. Don’t want someone selling me a grand design
Not a bad writeup by Gary Marcus re: the shortcomings of GPT-2 but he attacks a lot of strawmen. NN research for the last ~10 years has been about finding good structural priors rather than relying on 'innateness' alone.
https://thegradient.pub/gpt2-and-the-nature-of-intelligence/
@_Jason_Dean_ You’re just making an argument for proper food treatment which may not be accessible in poorer countries. There’s nothing special about bats or African swine in particular
@ClayShentrup@MarcosLo_@ne0liberal It’s not a lottery at all. It’s a capital allocation problem like any other. Land speculators are predicting which parcels will be successful just like how stock pickers are betting on future profitability of companies. The engine that has created unimaginable wealth
@micsolana@SonjaTrauss everybody's just gonna continue ignoring electoral mechanics, the demographic idiosyncrasies of specific states, and go ahead and make society level claims about w.e. grievances they were on about anyway.
usually with high profile natural disasters you have to correct for the media's incentives to overplay tragedies for clicks and attention ... but with Wuhan you have to also calculate the CCP's incentives to underplay things that make them look bad
@Henry_ALong@StephenBuell2 they incentivize folks to create new things that would not have existed without them, like drug patents + research. a person with a creative monopoly can afford to be a good person. non-monopolists can think of nothing but survival
seasonal flu is a pandemic
"According to the World Health Organisation, around 3-5 million people become “severely ill” every year as a result of seasonal flu. Of these, between 290,000 and 650,000 people die."
@kingdomakrillic imho this is not a bad heuristic at all as to decide whether a project is worth continuing. i don't know if there's literally anyone that builds things without wanting affirmation. and i feel wAInt will have a very long shelf life
@jdcmedlock How does this make sense? Of course mostly homogenous cost pools will have similar premiums. The insurers have bargaining power issues to be sure, but the point is that the providers are the ones walking away with massive profits
@jdcmedlock not sure if I agree that hospitals are natural monopolies: perhaps emergency rooms are, but emergency care is a small fraction (2%?) of total healthcare expenditures. not to mention much of our legislation actively makes it harder to open hospitals
@jdcmedlock we definitely have a shortage of primary care physicians but a declining share of HC costs go to them. pharma companies have creative monopolies, yet these really wouldn't be so problematic if it weren't for spurious lawsuits and IP abuse
@HobnobMobile@jdcmedlock I don't think anyone really believes more transparency would lower costs though. when trump passed that pricing transparency law, it was mostly greeted with sneers
@HobnobMobile@jdcmedlock Bloating administration is common to any industry that’s not tightly competitive, but doesn’t get at the problem of *why* it’s not tightly competitive. Your answer to that is obscure prices, and I partially agree
@jdcmedlock@HobnobMobile When I’m buying fresh produce in a market, I’m thinking about quality and price at the same time. While we evolved to sniff out the difference between a good apple and a bad one, it’s not quite so with back surgery. Need radical quality transparency along with price transparency
@HobnobMobile@jdcmedlock let's say a boutique hospital is offering back surgery for twice the cost of a cheaper nonprofit one. What parent is going to choose the cheaper one for their child if the other one is affordable to them? What if the outcomes for both hospitals are the same?
@jdcmedlock@HobnobMobile If we’re talking radical transparency you’d need the whole combinatorial price tags for each procedure x each insurer x each plan
lefists and MAGAs alike have had the same idiotic refrain for the last 4 years re: "she didn't visit michigan and wisconsin!!!!"
it wouldn't have mattered
@jdcmedlock@dril You’ve made it to the big leagues my guy. I pretty much only reply to your posts to disagree but you kinda convinced me that there’s no solution that stands up to universal healthcare atm
There is really no center-right healthcare policy that makes sense or matches the conceptual elegance of M4A atm. All the Trump admin does these days is incremental work on the Obamacare markets. Any further right and you just find people screaming about HSAs
@ahardtospell honestly it's amazing to me that UCC is considered a center-right proposal. I suppose it really depends on how you set some of those policy parameters
@LittleKeegs0@jdcmedlock the normal response to local monopolies is to turn them into regulated utility-type companies, not to make sweeping healthcare policy changes. appreciate the link, but this 15% doesn't approach the scale of the problem
@GaryMarcus It’s not a controversial position that humans natively understand language because the structures of our brains are evolved for it. Deep NLP researchers know this and scrub through the model space looking for the right inductive bias.
@eigenrobot Perhaps but socialists are also deontologists: they start from the maxim that inequality is immoral, rather than that of utility maximization. All this really means is that Rogan plays an instrumental role in following a deontological rule
@JuniorMinton@HobnobMobile@jdcmedlock Very few customers shop around in the current system. And even the ones that do are not very good at it, and end up forgoing care that they need
@JuniorMinton@HobnobMobile@jdcmedlock “Among consumers who engaged in ... these behaviors, 26% decided to put off the service until they could afford it, 10% decided that the service was not worth the cost, and 22% managed to obtain the service at a lower price. Only the last of these outcomes is unambiguously good.”
@HobnobMobile@JuniorMinton@jdcmedlock imo the best system necessarily obfuscates prices from the end consumer and negotiates instantly between insurer and provider. I don’t think removing price signals completely is a great move
@ne0liberal I think rn I’m thinking
— harmonize private insurance with Obamacare markets by removing the employer payroll tax deduction
— create a public option that’s basically a UCC
@jdcmedlock@HobnobMobile@JuniorMinton “Every instance of procedure X must cost the same amount” means that providers can slack on quality and charge the maximum price. At the very least, you need either the insurer (possibly single payor) or end consumer to shop around for highest quality care. I prefer the former
@jdcmedlock@HobnobMobile@JuniorMinton Let’s say Medicare maintains a running quality analysis of all providers and judges them on merit. Then they might tell you that they’ll only pay if you go to x hospital to get your procedure done, based on quality of care and distance. This maintains pressure on the providers
@jdcmedlock@HobnobMobile@JuniorMinton A massive trove of medical data like the one a universal Medicare program would collect allows them to assess medical outcomes in a minimally biased way. They are much better suited than any other party to choose a physician or hospital to get a procedure done
@HobnobMobile@jdcmedlock@JuniorMinton You don’t *need* one but it’s certainly compelling to have a panoptic view of every medical purchase and statistic in the whole country. Merely using Medicare as an example
@jdcmedlock Many people mistake incentive design problems for private vs public conflicts. Bad private solutions (prisons) and bad public bureaucracies (welfare) can be fixed with the right incentives
private prison contracts should be written with incentive shaping in mind. A simple one would include clauses like being forced to take ex prisoners back in for free in case of recidivism. prisoners should also be able to choose which prison they want to go to
@StephenBuell2@bibliographing with enough prison choice you’d be able to avoid the prisons that do things like this. In the real world, you’re probably going to need some additional nudges
@HoodlumDoodlum afaik cruelty is not an effective antidote to recidivism. after all, death penalties don’t seem to be powerful crime deterrents. but re-education systems might be.
@HoodlumDoodlum at the beginning you roughly calculate it so that they’re making the same amount as before by jacking up the normal rate in accordance with historical recidivism data. That way nobody’s losing money. And then they get working on lowering that rate if they can
@vgr What’s amazing is how successfully semi rational agents can navigate complex systems with barebones world models. This also explains the surprising success of modern machine learning
@HoodlumDoodlum perhaps but they’re not each working from zero; people will know by reputation what a certain prison is like. Markets sometimes work well in situations of far less than perfect information
@nathancofnas@mmt_lvt It’s kind of irrelevant seeing as coal mining is a job that employs fewer than 50k people in the US and is more of a populist symbol than anything else
@harkbrexit@quantian1 “You are missing the point, good sir. Aggressively NOT reading is as much of a display of countersignaling that shows lack of free will as is reading every pop nonfiction book on Bill Gates’ reading list. Instead consume for the reason that these flavors cannot be had elsewhere“
@jdcmedlock the private sector has seen a drastic drop in user free will on various products: I hop on twitter and I tune into my feed generated by a ranking algorithm in some far off server. I press a button on an app and a car shows up at my door.
@jdcmedlock In fact the only choice we have now is between multiple content curators! These are all improvements. Government should follow their lead and helpfully curate the user experience rather than expose people to choice they don’t need or want
@FriederJim security is a hard problem. that doesn't mean each individual website has to solve those problems. by no stretch of the imagination can http://healthcare.gov be considered more complicated than https://x.com, which i'm sure was built for a couple thousand dollars
@FriederJim I mean I could be wrong but if I remember correctly Lieberman fought against the public option / Medicare buyin. you'd pay for public health insurance if it was a better option than the private competitors. not M4A, which doesn't have premiums
@asteroid_saku the right wing reactionary hypergamy thing is definitely overblown, but these charts are still really funny and surprising all things considered
I doubt OkCupid is that much different from the rest of the population
@asteroid_saku not sure i have a non-obvious response. probably someone wealthy, charismatic, and good-looking (not necessarily in that order). bonus if they're white
@asteroid_saku think of one what? to be clear i'm not grievance posting.
I just think it's funny that men collectively organized a neat bell curve. I'm willing to bet women would upgrade their score for a man they know well. they just seem on avg worse at rating based on looks
@asteroid_saku just mentioned MSM and conspiracies as a joke. an interesting next experiment to do would be to have straight women rate other women on a 1-5 scale
@asteroid_saku girls i've known irl have expressed the same sentiment to me that they find it hard to be attracted to people they don't know at all, extreme outliers notwithstanding, whereas straight men seem to be more than willing to hookup with average looking strangers
the *only* plausible counterargument is that good capital allocators are even better at allocating capital if they know their wealth will pass to their kids
@rplevy as a king don't i have the right by free association to pass my kingdom to one of my children? my kingdom, my property after all. doesn't really matter what the serfs think
@StillShilling my ideal tax system would have an extremely high inheritance tax rate on fortunes past a certain amount and very small taxes on everything else, but I suspect literally nobody shares that moral value, not even me by this time next year
@rplevy by what right does a king rule? all he knows is that he was born in line for the throne. by what right do the Waltons own walmart? all they know is that they were born in the walton family. the social abstraction is similar at the least
@stuartbrownGU that's a good question. I wouldn't want the govt to end up in control of it because that means the govt will de facto own all capital in a few generations, and I'm not a tankie yet. capital allocation is a hard problem and should be done by competitors and not bureaucrats
@Dinocaridid When a Walmart heir is born they wake up to authority over a million workers distributed over most of the globe. Sure they don’t have absolute power over their workers, but it’s naive to think they have none
@StillShilling@THOTCrime you make a good point and it definitely feels strange to rip a parent's house away from a child. someone might argue the same thing about a prince and his kingdom tho. i'm mostly just trying to point out the contradictory feelings we have abt inheritance
@borderlessboba@mattparlmer Very cute thinking the lawyers and ex businessman care. democracy is designed such that the self interest of patricians benefits the plebs
@mattparlmer unfortunately I think many of the stereotypes about software engineers are more or less true. lawyers tend to be well spoken crowd pleasers. Need to find the small fraction of tech people with charisma and a populist flair
@TPeytn@mattparlmer there's a whole west coast tech ethos that Matt is evoking when he says software engineer. it can include other types of eng and associated VC/finance types too
@eigenrobot It’s great stuff because every intro system design interview just asks how youd make twitter and I bet 90% of those answers are better than how it actually is
@artofhunger75@Dinocaridid For context I’m a red blooded capitalist bc I feel it’s a utilitarian win. I’m just pointing out one discrepancy w that approach: we say the rich deserve their wealth because theyve proven good at allocating capital. But theyre kids have demonstrated no such proficiency. Thats it
@bufordsharkley@jdcmedlock americans are allergic to dynasties (at least in rhetoric), whereas europeans see them as natural. they just forgot to extrapolate one step further to dynastic wealth
@LittleKeegs0@artofhunger75@Dinocaridid not really. you can't point me to a single social democratic state in the world that's not powered by a market capitalist economy. i.e. the hayek knowledge problem
@LittleKeegs0@Cullen_OK@artofhunger75@Dinocaridid it may be something that's uniquely american but the noveau sort-of rich are truly ruthless. the immigrants especially. the absurdly rich mostly coast on their dynastic power. i'm not talking about people like the Waltons
@uberfeminist If an heir or group of heirs inherits the majority voting share of a mega corporation, they have absolute power over a set of economic flows that might span continents and employ millions
@ne0liberal This account has a special hatred for yang because he’s a rare neolib populist. I’ll be cackling as I tear down ur house via the Legion of Builders and Destroyers
more security isn't always good
protection measures always come with tradeoffs to usability and convenience
every additional "factor" makes it that much more likely that you'll be stuck w.o. access to your accounts
@ne0liberal it's true but i still weep for san francisco, the beautiful pacific rim megacity to rival hong kong and shanghai that'll never come to fruition
@jdcmedlock most people definitely shop around when they choose a college. my hot take is that the market is mostly functioning for colleges, but that as rent seekers they can afford to take much of the wage increase they create
@NoblePublius@jdcmedlock if you bite that bullet, you should also see that the king rightfully owns all the land, it isn’t being borrowed from the commons
@NoblePublius@jdcmedlock there are no laws of physics dictating that anyone owns anything. property rights aren’t embedded into the universe. we find that playing the capital game is a good way to organize planet scale societies and achieve utilitarian gain, so we do so
@NoblePublius@jdcmedlock it’s not even a universal human moral principle. many premodern tribal societies are extremely egalitarian and share all material possessions
@aquariusacquah I mean I don’t think Bernie has ever tried to balance his proposals lol but that’s almost better bc I don’t have to pretend to take it seriously
none of this makes any sense. there’s barely anything differentiating one cloud from another cloud, no brand loyalty, no monopoly, just companies chasing down the cheapest compute. so why these insane margins? https://x.com/chetanp/status/1223041555767779328
@TebleyS yeah, it’s designed to be punitive and reduce wealth. warren supporters had a handful of info graphics showing how the largest fortunes would’ve ablated away if wealth tax was in place for the last few decades, undermining their own projects
@d_feldman and what is the value add? we are seeing more and more infrastructure deployment tools that switch cloud backends fungibly, so i don’t quite follow
@ansells_cow there’s a bunch of provisioning tools these days that are backend agnostic. at least from where i’m standing, the switching costs seem small for reasonably sized deployments. I don’t know how it would work for a Netflix scale company
@aka_wills@iajrz@rplevy I’m aware, and I’m saying the fundamental logic is no different than that of globe-spanning family owned enterprises. at least Julius and then Augustus had the common sense to hunt down someone smart to succeed them
@mutual_ayyde@Noahpinion I seriously doubt this is true. Anno said that a lot but I don’t think we should take it at face value. He may have just been trying to deflect questions he couldn’t easily answer
@wesleyytian@AnUntimelyMan yes of course. The companies allot their reps a budget to do things like this to get rid of customers wasting too much of their time. It’s not out of some special human connection
@koaleszenz it's an arbitrary asset class as he said and it punishes people who invested in land over something else arbitrarily. like throwing darts at a dartboard. why should the current bagholders feel the pain and nobody else? the logic is sound