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@terfdavidicke they were correct

@terfdavidicke actually it was me wasn’t it

is “sus” really from among us feel like I’ve been saying it for a decade

@w_____redacted lmao

still thinking about this https://x.com/lalaAlicelala/status/1407769733894705154

if you’re still drinking water instead of Diet Coke … ngmi https://x.com/leamaric/status/1410315661910462466

@lolitsnotreal_ absolutely

@mariani_jr lol

@arctanno just pick up a picture book Mahabharat because thats about how deep my understanding goes

@chaosprime wait do they though

@chaosprime @deepfates hmm i dont think real neurons are doing bayesian chain rules nor gradient descent

@chaosprime @deepfates nice

@chaosprime @deepfates theres no obvious mechanism to backpropagate errors in the brain but my hunch is that you're right via some circuitry we don't understand yet

@parafactual keep trying and make it up in volume

@parafactual that’s the right attitude

@Duderichy @parafactual “we lose money on every trade but make it up in volume”

@arctanno yo how good were you at sc2

@arctanno kinda wanna play now that you mentioned it

@parafactual @Duderichy no it’s just a dumb boomer tier joke

@arctanno oh damn I think I peaked at diamond

@eigenrobot @arctanno zerg

@arctanno @eigenrobot oh easily yeah the ladders completely fucked

@arctanno @eigenrobot I don’t have the apm for infestors

quote dunking neil degrasse tyson is punching down

@cateliseh cant tell if ur joking cat

@gomert6 punching up accepts risk, shows courage, and is generally just funnier punching down is lame. stealing candy from babies is not cool

@gomert6 i agree minorities is punching up. ndt is punching down lol half the arbitrage of the twitter anon account is finding the real power structure and punching up

@jejunestarfcker @colbywhitted same but hes a total non entity

@diviacaroline hahaha ive seen this one before but ty

@notlinear1 what do you mean the circle?

@krishnanrohit he was against the companies having to pay in cash against their theoretical valuation but seems alright with the taxes paid in equities

concept: AI-generated Zyzz on my phone that periodically tells me that we're all gonna make it

recurring nightmare where i have to explain what a postrationalist is to my dad

@monodevice tjos what happens when beta worker bee meets sigma chad playing Lil Jon at 9 am

@bowserbot2 lolol

@Alephwyr lmaooo very possible

@lisamahapatra no clue

@alth0u The God-Whispers of Donald Trump 12:28

@TeddyRaccovelt go back to pinterest

@SethMiller79 lol yeah unironically seems true

@nickcammarata nick my verbal iq is far too low to decipher this

tfw bonobo are women and chimp are men

"bonobos were more skilled at solving tasks related to theory of mind or an understanding of social causality, while chimpanzees were more skilled at tasks requiring the use of tools and an understanding of physical causality".

@peaktraansit 😳😳😳

@sagar__dubey @gbrl_dick @woke8yearold @BulgogiMandu turns out administering a colony with a lot of pre-existing state capacity is pretty easy

@deepfates @nickcammarata @rplevy lmao why

@jbarro its bad to make you click and its literally on business insider i will lose respect for anyone who QTs this and raises its price in the wet market of ideas

@devarbol true

used to agree with this and thought price discovery was dead but it’s clear now that the right move in feb was still to be long due to the expectation of zero rates https://x.com/JimDMiller/status/1241780313644285953

the medicine is much more pleasant than the disease is bad

gpt3 is probably smarter than quite a few humans. what are the ethical consequences?

@ded_ruckus disagree symbol manipulation is an iq test and important to how we intuitively understand human intelligence

@ded_ruckus subjectively I think this is untrue and gpt can hold quite a reasonable convo up til it runs up against the hard limits of its memory

i consider it some kind of alien intelligence that doesn’t directly deserve or require sympathy but i do think it can be evaluated along human intuitions of “smart”

@brianduffytweet there are real people that would struggle to remember

@ded_ruckus yeah so this is one area where it’s dumber than most humans. but we’re still happily (and accurately) evaluating an alien intelligence against human benchmarks

@ded_ruckus not strange that IQ tests seem to be divided into the components of “visual” “verbal” and “memory”

@ded_ruckus broaden the space of activities then it’s general because it can universally demonstrate limited memory at a large set of tasks

@brianduffytweet it’s not impossible; in fact I’d be surprised if it didn’t get this question correct sometimes. just has to be a part of the same input text

lotta people displaying a lack of imagination abt the space of all intelligences

@ded_ruckus as in GPT can demonstrate limited performance at digit span and all other such challenges you throw at it; it is general and stupid. it is categorically different than a pre programmed digit span solver

@ded_ruckus @deepfates it can form long term memories by doing a training pass on the conversation

@deepfates @ded_ruckus yeah

@ded_ruckus doesn’t matter imo, it’s an intelligence oriented towards a different purpose. no less of an intelligence. we can gain insight into how smart it is by playing novel word games

@ded_ruckus you can compare entities with vastly different teleologies on their level of intelligence I think

@kitten_beloved based

@ded_ruckus like let’s say we’re comparing dolphins to humans dolphins will not have anything like the level of symbolic manipulation ability we have. but i assume their spatial reasoning and memory will knock ours out of the water. both creatures are general but have different purpose

@ded_ruckus or compare to aliens that grew up in an evolutionary environment that highly rewards the ability to predict the next word of text

@arctanno @ded_ruckus hehe

@ded_ruckus reasonable people can disagree on category boundaries But i think if we can’t place dolphin intelligence and human intelligence in the same one we fucked up somewhere

reasonable people can disagree on category boundaries so “category errors” are fake

the only way to settle category arguments is to outsource them are human intelligence and dolphin intelligence categorically same or similar enough to compare?

@ResonantPyre I would say it can outperform a subset of humans at any arbitrary verbal task you can throw at it

@nickcammarata @ded_ruckus I think it’s really good until stuff passes out of its token range / receptive field https://x.com/tszzl/status/1410716305196425217

@ollyrobot holy based !!

@brianduffytweet yeah you are the result of a trillion incomprehensible screaming neurons so i don’t think the fact that we can directly see the internal probability calculations is a strong argument against an intelligent nature

@brianduffytweet if we had more insight into what neural circuits are producing this conversation today it would seem similarly absurd

dont wanna skew the poll but my answer is an emphatic yes, it’s all a continuum. im not that different from Dog

@rud_talaiporos @deepfates @brianduffytweet there are models that ground language in images -- look up DALL-E or CLIP this is not really a radical complaint nor do i think it changes the phenomenon of intelligence

@BaruchKogan nope https://x.com/LaocoonofTroy/status/1410205071397294085

@andrej_haulis @ded_ruckus lmao

@ResonantPyre yes it does, but only if you prime it to do so

@ResonantPyre yeah I’d recommend looking into the common test sets they evaluate against in NLP including like question/answer and others https://arxiv.org/abs/2005.14165

@bowserbot2 @roisbelh wonder what the dolphin religion looks like because I’m confident they’re smart enough to have social cohesion via mythmaking

@HgTrismegistus boring and wrong

life evolves on a planet where survival depends foremost on doing correct completions of text snippets is the end result intelligent

@HgTrismegistus I’m not arguing about your definition but rather your confidence that it doesn’t understand or your belief that you personally understand

@arctanno @bowserbot2 @roisbelh you know I doubt humans play a big part in it seeing how uncommon the encounters are but I bet the whales are important

@arctanno @bowserbot2 @roisbelh is naked ape as startling as the sun being blotted out? but I guess ocean liners and stuff gotta be pretty jarring

@moultano I think they’re very much the same class of being

@arctanno @bowserbot2 @roisbelh oh yeah actually now I’m remembering how orcas have advanced evasive maneuvers to escape the seaworld trappers so there must be some kind of collective memory thing

@halvorz aren’t there animal models for this and also what’s your bet / hunch

@BaruchKogan this is just Chinese room shit i can’t prove that you understand anything or are just a p zombie so it’s irrelevant to me

@BaruchKogan I’ve played with it for a long time and my intuition is that it mostly understands, even extrapolates, and sometimes rarely analyzes

@lalaAlicelala @Hellachans honestly no clue what’s happening in this convo

@pee_zombie 🤕

@eigenrobot its a pretty far step from "a lot of science is shitty" to "science is useless"

@eigenrobot if anything i think the long tail of shitty papers are outweighed by the exponential outsized impact of the really good ones

"the customer is divinely discontent" - bezos imagining jeff bezos' disembodied cunsoomer as a kind of lovecraftian god, a utility monster that never stops eating

@eigenrobot however in this case i would agree "researching sex is pointless"

@aniiyengar lmao

@rglpwx @alth0u @ded_ruckus agreed the smart models will not just be time series but integrating global information

@rglpwx @alth0u @ded_ruckus you might like @atomicsearchinc then

@rglpwx @alth0u @ded_ruckus anyway I think words/sentences describe object graphs better than actual object graphs

@rglpwx @alth0u @ded_ruckus personally I want my language models to be able to have external data stores that they can read & write to during the training process and then also some kind of long term memory mechanism

@rglpwx @alth0u @ded_ruckus they are wasting their time memorizing so many arbitrary facts like the autistic but stupid child that knows the name of every lieutenant in the civil war but can’t synthesize a narrative about why the war happened

@rglpwx @alth0u @ded_ruckus part of that is just due to the training modality which rewards accurate recall over synthesis but I’m wondering if you can’t be more efficient with brain space via external data stores, like “note taking” for the AI

@behavinbehavin lmao tru

my property values will go up once they build the giant seawalls https://x.com/thesravaka/status/1410744667684048904

honestly I wanna wake up every morning and see the sea walls

@postpostpostr that’s when it gets extremely Fun https://dwarffortresswiki.org/index.php?title=DF2014:Fun

@halvorz software is an organic system and the guy that won’t approve my PRs doesn’t get that smfh

@halvorz “we are rationally designing this product” no we are organically hill climbing by adding features of essentially random quality

@rglpwx @halvorz wtf i love linus even more now

@arctanno should’ve done it

@BrickOverton yeah that’s what inspired this

nobody cared who i was until i rotated the shape

@rmcwhorter99 @eigenrobot this is a case of people seeing what they want to see imo. when evaluating Silicon Valley you can either point to the spectacular failures (Theranos, WeWork, etc) or the tremendous successes (SpaceX, google …)

@rmcwhorter99 @eigenrobot yeah social psychology is a trash fire, and my question is so what? why abandon the storied tradition of academic science because the milgram experiment sucked or something

@rmcwhorter99 @eigenrobot yeah fair

@jachaseyoung @yashkaf lol

@oldvillagesage @brianduffytweet extremely poorly defined coming from a entity who loses consciousness every night

@oldvillagesage @brianduffytweet sure but gpt can theoretically train on yesterday’s prompts and utilize their knowledge tomorrow

@oldvillagesage @brianduffytweet absolutely but https://x.com/tszzl/status/1410719034794856449

@cauchyfriend @GarettJones lmao

@chaosprime isnt this just definitional tho

@chaosprime dude is natural if hes not violating the laws of nature but he sure as hell feels supernatural

@arctanno gotta take more adderall until my autism beats my loneliness and i get off this site forever

@alth0u nah when the grift works these guys make way more money than actual faang-cucks

@alth0u if yuor so smart why aren't you selling leetcode courses at scale to desperate indians

@alth0u i would say theres a gap between "guy who sells his labor teaching" and "guy who sells his brand capital"

@_rajkhare @alth0u (1) proof of work -- shows willingness to cooperate & perform the ritual, good candidate for employee (2) proof of basic intelligence -- generally the problems are harder than "invert binary tree" it requires some synthesis

the customer is divinely discontent https://x.com/paulg/status/1410899621887545344

@eigenrobot ya all this is totally fair but the real redpill is that social science isnt science we need to unperson the social sciences

@eigenrobot if you publish a wrong and dumb paper about physics or computer science for the most part some bureaucracy of experts is not about to come and fuck you over

@eigenrobot worst case is that it leads to a misallocation of researchers & investment funds. the damage of the former is limited to academia and the latter will get culled quickly by market forces

@gigafelon @eigenrobot hmm no i dont

@eigenrobot not about to come and fuck other people*** over

@RealtimeAI ??? you can't accomplish a single task other than moving your body parts

cant sleep so im running through this shit but ... i mean cmon https://x.com/brianduffytweet/status/1410717146007568387?s=20

child's play. clearly beating 80 iq https://x.com/kitten_beloved/status/1410721362138701826?s=20

@pee_zombie @kitten_beloved https://x.com/tszzl/status/1410920089973493761?s=20

but moooooom paul skallas said breakfast isn't lindy

@terfdavidicke bonobos are known to be degenerates https://x.com/RemainsStellar/status/1410697211369844737?s=20

@jeff82874662 NGMI jeff you're describing all the growth features that make me fear and respect them

@jeff82874662 this is why they have 20 million weekly active users and we have 0!!

@ded_ruckus @rglpwx @alth0u your skill with language just wasn't sufficient had you a poet on speed dial you could've said it

@aniiyengar @jeff82874662 yeah ive had them off for a while

@AgainstGop @jeff82874662 correct you need context separation. make a google voice number for burner clubhouse account

@aashiq @ded_ruckus yep

@brianduffytweet sign up for the beta and find out

@aashiq @ded_ruckus yeah this whole line of argument is spurious, considering models like DALL-E have semantic grounding in image manipulation and generation "it can only do language!" is a god of the gaps argument. again people are not imaginative enough about the space of all intelligence

@aashiq @ded_ruckus most cognitive tasks can be reduced to input output as text one agent can describe an image and another purely textual agent can make conclusions about the world state described

@brianduffytweet openai GPT-3

@ded_ruckus @aashiq sure that's fair my only point is, (1) synthesizing image and text modalities is not unheard of or novel and (2) the input/output modes of a model does not change whether it is functionally intelligent or not

@ded_ruckus @aashiq re: 2 there are some humans that couldn't solve all the problems either! lol if you look at my OP it's a very weak but true claim (1) doesn't really matter to the discussion at hand. humans might be better at thinking if they had 5 more senses, alas we don't

@rheophile10 @BrickOverton yeah on an intuitive level even if your verbal parsing skills are bad

@ded_ruckus @aashiq well i should've said at the outset: i think you can only judge an intelligence as a black box of its inputs and outputs

@ded_ruckus @aashiq people will try to bring in the chinese room idea to mess with your intuition but in real you would need infinite space to construct a chinese room but i assure you there is not enough space in GPT's head for that. its brain's data capacity is 1000x smaller than ours

@ded_ruckus @aashiq which means we have to deduce that it's making novel synthesis, understanding, extrapolation even if its telos is vastly separated from our own. "intelligent" but not "conscious"

@ded_ruckus @aashiq how can i model you in any way other than a black box? what i put in is text and what i get out is replies -- the shape of the response system looks to me like a human

@brianduffytweet provided

sometimes i wonder why folks on here will get into 50 reply long argument chains in the replies about every imaginable topic then i take adderall and i understand

alternatively just rile me up on some topic i sperg out about (AI/brains)

@arctanno nononono stay pure Arc

the redpill is nobody really cares about intelligence of the Subject as a moral axis; if they did we would feel more guilty eating pork than eating chicken but i don't think about it

if you are really going to commit to the bit on 'continuity of consciousness' gotta stop eating meat probably

@ded_ruckus the bit that human intelligence is very much on a continuum from the intelligence of a dolphin or a dog or a pig

@ded_ruckus or, perhaps even distantly, an NLP bot :^)

@ded_ruckus yeah which is vaguely like "human vs nonhuman" or "how much can it bond with humans and humans bond with it"

@ded_ruckus if they come out with AI bots that are designed to make people love them (and are successful in doing so) maybe there'd be a reckoning about whether we should copy, delete, and recreate them on a wanton basis

@chaosprime explain; its very much accepting the fact that I am meat two conclusions 1) accept cannibalism 2) go vegetarian

@__femb0t @chaosprime thank god that being vegetarian is Trad and Lindy for me bc of my hindu ancestry

@__femb0t @chaosprime yeah that was nuts but also kind of metal

@chaosprime (1) there is really nothing that eats us these days (2) just because the lion is too stupid to have a theory of mind about me doesnt mean i cant have a theory of mind about it

@ITBeHa @chaosprime yes; i think i will continue being cowardly

however i will continue lacking the courage of my convictions

My convictions are not happy with me--that's okay, I'll still keep eating that meat.

@aashiq @ded_ruckus agreed

@aashiq @ded_ruckus generalization is intelligence the trappings of a human cognitive structure is one implementation of intelligence

@arctanno LFG

@LudditeHacker @ded_ruckus yeah this is getting unproductive but broadly speaking all things are continuous and we can create mental categories when there's evidence of a "cluster" in thing-space. i very much believe that intersex exist but also male and female are real clusters

@LudditeHacker @ded_ruckus so when i say its all on a continuum its that to me there doesn't seem to be a "cluster in thing space" when comparing all known intelligences around humans that make them absurdly different from dolphins. but this may be self referential and silly i'm not sure

@aashiq @ded_ruckus yeah i'm gonna push back on this in that "information prediction" is underspecified

@aashiq @ded_ruckus anyway i gotta obligatory link this post where the venerable SSC makes a good case that even *GPT-2* is a general intelligence https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/02/19/gpt-2-as-step-toward-general-intelligence/

@aashiq @ded_ruckus yeah that's true but the distinctive quality of both GPT and humans is the *general purpose nature* or in other words, the breadth of inputs the black box can successfully parse a black box that is just doing y=mx+b on the inside is not an intelligence

@PstafarianPrice @eigenrobot @bowserbot2 yeah me 2 but i'm not on here arguing about obamacare anymore or something. very boring, we've all heard the pro-side and anti-side a million times. i didnt realize we could just retire such topics from the discourse

@ded_ruckus @aashiq hmm not really, i played with it as an open-ended exploration without intending to apply an IQ test on it. I had it autocomplete some of my old DnD characters, some weird speculative fiction. my overall intuition is that there is undeniably something intelligent in there

@ded_ruckus @aashiq it scares me at times with its extrapolative ability. it makes jokes that it should not be able to make. it copies my writing style near perfectly (loses track when the passage gets too long though).

@ded_ruckus @aashiq i stored all these conversations somewhere, maybe i will write a blog post about it

@ded_ruckus @aashiq i feel like we've been through this already but i don't see why not having access to all the motor functions or senses of a human might make something unintelligent. paraplegics are not unintelligent, neither are the blind or deaf etc

@andrej_haulis @eigenrobot @bowserbot2 sad!

@LTF_01 https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/20806062/

@ded_ruckus @aashiq no i think a smart enough GPT could absolutely figure this out if the data read-in serialization was good enough

@ded_ruckus @aashiq i mean like have you seen what kind of input RL bots use? its generally dumbed down to 2 or 3 parameters rather than the complexity of the real world sensiromotor stuff and they still make do

@ded_ruckus @aashiq pong can be played with less than 10 integers of input

@ded_ruckus @aashiq i mean I get your point that the real world is difficult but verbal reasoning is difficult too; its just that its super easy to scrape the web for all the pre-existing verbal reasoning that we can throw at the robot and very hard to find data on real world manipulation

@ded_ruckus @aashiq no no i don't mean training i mean learning during test-time like we've seen with GPT-3 thus the title of the paper, "language models are few shot learners"

@aashiq @ded_ruckus tru lol

@ded_ruckus @aashiq we could argue this but i think it's an irrelevant subconvo

@ded_ruckus @aashiq broader claim is that you don't need to be capable of doing every motor task humans can do to be intelligent. shouldn't grade dolphins on their ability to climb trees

@ded_ruckus @aashiq but i think we've talked ourselves into a circle a second time so gonna just mute thread now

@DistractedAnna so small ape can win against big ape

@alth0u something very kabbalistic about language models

@sonyasupposedly https://x.com/tszzl/status/1411072764891394051?s=20

@alth0u it really is time to unfollow each other

@TeddyRaccovelt can't do it

@chaosprime i understand what you mean but i think there is inherent beauty in the wilderness and not much beauty in the way my food gets to me

@chaosprime but maybe i'm shifting goalposts a little

@TheNewGeraldo many such cases

@TheNewGeraldo also i wonder if WEF & the economist and that cohort shills great reset / eating bugs stuff for clicks

lol @ded_ruckus even divide

@oldvillagesage https://x.com/tszzl/status/1411072764891394051?s=20

@mechanical_monk maybe theres something special about their wings that makes the buzzing inevitable?

@ibeckermayer lmaoo

@ded_ruckus @alth0u @Tjdriii math is certainly language the language models are very good at doing math https://ai.facebook.com/blog/using-neural-networks-to-solve-advanced-mathematics-equations/

@arctanno should’ve done it bro

@arctanno ok W

@TeddyRaccovelt Bitcoin solved this years ago

if I had any verbal iq to speak of id write essays instead of tweeting

@Alephwyr 😂 when you put it that way

@houellebecq_2 practically speaking all moral systems are based on Void and rely heavily on subjective inferential jumps and psychological/cultural instincts

@rickyflows 170 lol

@lisatomic5 i guess it makes them more aware of unearned confidence … but some have earned their confidence

@ThatsMauvelous lolol

wtf this is dumb it’s a great conversation starter

does anyone know if there’s a “pagerank for twitter” service anywhere

@garybasin wdym boss

@garybasin i mean like a “reputation score” for users based on their following and followers eg bunch of 0 follower bots follow me vs lots of giant accounts follow me

@terfdavidicke wow that’s actually surprising from you I thought you’d call this soy af

@colinismo who’s klout? send link

@houellebecq_2 even if you have a bedrock of divine authority you could be validly asking these questions tbqh

@houellebecq_2 the Jains struggle amongst themselves whether it’s ok to be hurting lower life like insects, bacteria etc

@generativist legs graph?

@wiki_early_life @phl43 ah interesting but he doesn’t commit to pagerank, just does one iteration of it

@houellebecq_2 isn’t that what my OP says tho that nobody cares about intelligence as the scale including me

@no_compute @houellebecq_2 i dunno some Jain axiom about the value of life probably

@houellebecq_2 ok yeah I guess you weren’t arguing and I’m just being combative Sry!

@MKULTRACUMMIE @AOCummies why is this such an accurate mascot

@colinismo do you know anything about why it didn't work? it looks like they're using some highly complicated system for cross-app linking and whatnot https://arxiv.org/pdf/1510.08487.pdf

@eigenrobot @liminal_warmth @selentelechia gossip about @monodevice

@sean_mcdonald i see, do you know of any that are sold /accessible to the public?

@SkepticalAlpaca @garybasin lmao sweet alpaca

@arctanno @bowserbot2 i only need the Law of the Jungle

@aashiq lmfao category fascists out in full force

@lauralondon_ @lisatomic5 im basically like a modern language model ... in tweets or short threads i can be pithy and punchy at times but i lose focus and get off track when the writing gets too long and i overrun my token limit

@pee_zombie @colinismo bitclout is interesting but highly biased by the kind of people that would use bitclout lol

@pee_zombie why crypto? i guess, why does this need to be decentralized?

@nicholatian @pee_zombie i wonder if there would be value in just maintaining a large decentralized database of all scraped twitter metadata in a way that the feds can't easily takedown

@ctjlewis @pee_zombie like right now?

@ctjlewis @pee_zombie cant hear you buddy not sure if my connection is shit or yours

why would numerai work when: - there's inherent tension between the quality of the data and the need to obfuscate it (which the hedge funds don't) - the best algorithmic traders are getting carry at a hedge fund somewhere

@arctanno yeah they hire their top performers apparently

@TeddyRaccovelt holy based !!

@lalaAlicelala bro what did she mean by this

@ollyrobot tbf there would be fewer oil pipelines and fewer accidents if the demand for it was lower

@monodevice onio you never understood male types to begin with NGMI

@ollyrobot not that any individual person has that much control obviously but i don’t see it any differently than like voting an individual decision to vote is a ridiculous waste of time but the collective voting behavior sometimes works

@patio11 @eigenrobot classic innovator's dilemma stuff

@patio11 @eigenrobot plus all the smart + risk-seeking people want to build own thing and have their shares bought out rather than build it inside the company and get a tiny bonus

@Jayasimha108 @notlinear1 @chaosprime the ancient hindus seem to have realized that the contract between different wild beasts is different than the one between man and beast

@candrianillborn lmfao

@_rajkhare @patio11 @eigenrobot i don't know if its even possible for large cos to fix it

@_rajkhare @patio11 @eigenrobot plus the thing where you just acquire all innovators seems to be going ok

@BarneyFlames yo develop this a bit? i think you're right tho

@_rajkhare @patio11 @eigenrobot its one thing to know that climate change is happening, another thing to fix the global coordination problem

@BarneyFlames what were the attendant inflation rates?

@BarneyFlames wow that's kind of a blackpill

@BarneyFlames defaults in the first place caused by adjustable rate mortage loan with premiums exploding when fed funds rate goes up ... whole thing attributable to cringe monetary policy?

@BarneyFlames otoh banks should have financial modeling that can withstand stress test of rates going up

@BarneyFlames tbf its only post-2008 that everyone learned inflation is fake

inflation is always fake

@Coldoorr @notlinear1 @BarneyFlames i don't know about "ratings shop" so much as "midwit financial modeling" by standard&poor etc. generally incompetence > malice

@Coldoorr @notlinear1 @BarneyFlames the real michael burry talks about this regarding e.g. "nobel approved models of risk" that seem to think diversifying via highly correlated assets makes the bundle safe

@BarneyFlames @Coldoorr @notlinear1 in that case i doubt the features matter to the banks very much. however they may matter significantly to boomer institutions like mutual funds etc

@KommiKomm just fake

@TeddyRaccovelt Kaiju finally awakening

@moultano @ollyrobot the effect of voting is p small, so i think you can also like make different decisions on the margin assuming you’re financially secure enough eg buy electric car

@WillManidis of the two points (1) is the stronger one. I agree there may be quite good quants left out on the margins

@arctanno required in fact

@moultano @ollyrobot yeah that’s not a trivial amount tho, for anericans it means cutting like 10 tons of CO2 per year. obv I wish we could just carbon tax but that’s not happening for various reasons

@moultano @ollyrobot yeah it’s surprisingly cheap as hell but I get the feeling those offsets are mispriced

guy who reads a holy book then gives it a star rating on goodreads

@moultano @ollyrobot planting a tree now is no guarantee that the offset company makes sure it grows into a real carbon sink

@eigenrobot @olivertraldi @CatholicClod wait the gre used to be out of 1600

@SatyreContraire @eigenrobot @olivertraldi @CatholicClod gonna delete this and lay low .. No time to be flexing when you just accidentally poasted SSN

@alth0u when I got to this point in the thread I went back and unliked everything

@NLRG_ @eigenrobot @olivertraldi @CatholicClod same .. despite the shape rotation abilities you can misread math problems …

@VividVoid_ @alth0u true

@FahadMAlam lol

@kristineCreates Lmao hell yea

@kristineCreates wait I don’t know that one can you send it?

@yhdistyminen @peaktraansit https://x.com/outsideness/status/1068434744407257088

@yhdistyminen @peaktraansit i mean probably fishing these numbers out of the wet market of ideas https://x.com/MushiKachi/status/1068433510883569664

@MamanLunettes @mechanical_monk Cantor gf

r u on the karma yoga or jnana yoga

@babarganesh @MamanLunettes @mechanical_monk tru. love my ethereal point set gf

@iluvjoerogan tell him that lindyman said modern yoga was made up by Europeans

nothing more yuppie than trying relentlessly to avoid being yuppie https://x.com/rachdele/status/1411373532794298369

@luke_metro self hating tech people are far worse than any of the actual wrongs committed by tech

@arctanno I don’t know what dual N back is really but I know there are several NLP datasets that resemble iq type problems

@StuartJRitchie @berri_tea @eigenrobot

@TeddyRaccovelt how’s month 16 of lockdown going for you buddy?

@TeddyRaccovelt same as of June 15th but you get the picture

@selentelechia the egregregore

@selentelechia the idea of the religious gods being real and powerful as thoughtform

@selentelechia general mysticism / belief in mysterious psychic phenomena

@selentelechia the nebulous idea of Humanity

@extradeadjcb ngl this one is genuinely a strange way to send the message

@extradeadjcb depending on body language it mught be obvious

@jachaseyoung @HgTrismegistus ❤️

@Hellachans no and yes

@MegaBasedChad true

@finnitejest oh god

@NotComradeSnake @gigafelon @Hellachans chanson’s family owns a Marriott that’s currently getting fucked and he blames Airbnb

@Hellachans @gigafelon @NotComradeSnake ok maybe but who cares the product is great for cunsoomers

@gigafelon @Hellachans @NotComradeSnake gifts straight from Saudi princes and chanson wants to complain …

@Hellachans @gigafelon @NotComradeSnake is it temporary? Airbnb is the rare tech company that was profitable in 2019

@Hellachans @gigafelon @NotComradeSnake moreover they are the clear unparalleled category winner in most of the 1st world unlike eg ridesharing where it’s settled into a duopoly in the US and many fractaline players in other countries

@monodevice @jeff82874662 Onio coping so hard in this thread “noooo you can’t have fun with the fresh memes”

@Hellachans @gigafelon @NotComradeSnake Airbnb is a branding icon honestly. I have heard zoomers tell people to come back to “their Airbnb” which turns out to be a hotel

@Hellachans @gigafelon @NotComradeSnake i guess there’s a feeling of safety coziness and lifestyle associated with the Airbnb brand — even in the middle of the pandemic Brian chesky chooses not to get rid of the 200 person Airbnb magazine division but cuts a bunch of engineering instead

@Hellachans @gigafelon @NotComradeSnake oh yeah I have zero loyalty I would gladly switch to a cheaper platform — but I assume some sort of network moat exists else they wouldn’t burn billions on subsidizing growth markets

@RealtimeAI yeah I’m just being aggravating here for humor value I’m sure he meant nothing of the sort

@gigafelon @Hellachans @wowholyfucking @NotComradeSnake once you reach like 4 guests it’s impossible to beat bc of space and comfort. for 1-2 people hotel usually wins

@halvorz idk aren’t we all doing that all the time

@DesidErratum @halvorz you’re setting the bar too high when you choose to read a book do you not end up learning new things and therefore modifying your mind?

@aniiyengar dude fucked up but true

@aniiyengar one of my brainchildren must eventually Make It

@DesidErratum @halvorz based on what you learned you might try to read another book ad Infinitum that being said I think I could collapse my mind if I had “root level access” to play around

@finnitejest @sagar__dubey @eigenrobot @arisroussinos “servants” probably doesn’t mean what it sounds like it’s just a maid

@arisroussinos Owned lol get fucked

@Fox1509Hudson @finnitejest @sagar__dubey @eigenrobot @arisroussinos most people don’t live in countries where the real cost of labor is nearly zero

@Fox1509Hudson @finnitejest @sagar__dubey @eigenrobot @arisroussinos to contextualize, all of my relatives in India have maids. nonetheless their standard of living is much worse than mine

@Fox1509Hudson @finnitejest @sagar__dubey @eigenrobot @arisroussinos it’s not really luxurious to, say, have a lady who washes your clothes rather than just having a washing machine

@costa11235 @finnitejest @sagar__dubey @eigenrobot @arisroussinos I guess when I hear servant I imagine someone that lives with the family

@costa11235 @finnitejest @sagar__dubey @eigenrobot @arisroussinos but in India they use it interchangeably to mean someone that cleans my home once in a while

@finnitejest @costa11235 @sagar__dubey @eigenrobot @arisroussinos lol yeah fair then

@nathanael_gould @finnitejest @costa11235 @sagar__dubey @eigenrobot @arisroussinos lol

@nathanael_gould @finnitejest @costa11235 @sagar__dubey @eigenrobot @arisroussinos in college I knew an Indian girl from Dubai who would eat bananas and just throw the peels on the ground. “the servants will pick that up”

@nathanael_gould @finnitejest @costa11235 @sagar__dubey @eigenrobot @arisroussinos tbf housework tends to be very gendered in rural parts of India so may be confusing for even a middle class man to be washing dishes or clothes

@nathanael_gould @finnitejest @costa11235 @sagar__dubey @eigenrobot @arisroussinos she was very sus. lots of scholarship fraud. potential ties to isis

@costa11235 @nathanael_gould @finnitejest @sagar__dubey @eigenrobot @arisroussinos international incoming reporting is sketchy to say the least

@finnitejest @nathanael_gould @costa11235 @sagar__dubey @eigenrobot @arisroussinos minor detail really

@costa11235 @nathanael_gould @finnitejest @sagar__dubey @eigenrobot @arisroussinos income reporting**

@finnitejest @nathanael_gould @costa11235 @sagar__dubey @eigenrobot @arisroussinos we were just observing that her parents took a vacation to a part of the world that definitely seemed isis controlled at the time

@costa11235 @nathanael_gould @finnitejest @sagar__dubey @eigenrobot @arisroussinos well yeah like it’s easy to ask the IRS for proofs but not the Dubai tax services (whom you can just bribe anyway)

@MamaLlamaTX @Hellachans @gigafelon @NotComradeSnake which is fine, it’s not like vocal minorities can’t win regulatory battles

@tim_ber_wind @sanssomatic @luke_metro Jevon’s paradox

@notlinear1 yeah something like that

@chercher_ai Emory is not an Ivy League

@MamaLlamaTX @Hellachans @gigafelon @NotComradeSnake Handful of jurisdictions out of 100s, why hasn’t there been more movement already? Especially in like Paris which is constantly complaining about Airbnb

@MamaLlamaTX @Hellachans @gigafelon @NotComradeSnake I think money speaks but idk

@KolmogorovGhost @billpshort been losing for the last 100 years

@smstxtmsg oh is it?

1) Apple has removed stuff from the App Store for reasons far stupider than the cited 2) there’s no reason to believe the Chinese regulators did this unlawfully under their data protection regime https://x.com/APompliano/status/1411666853559144450

@tweet_dispencer reading Lord of Light

@_metallurgist based!

@pupperio you think if I had any impulse control I’d be sitting on a backlog of 30 books

@moultano true enough

@tishray yeah same but at least these have the benefit of looking pretty on a shelf

concept: digital display bookshelf to flex your unread kindle collection

@sagar__dubey @pupperio stealing the number from @halvorz the actual one is likely higher

far from radicalizing me, being online for so long gave me deep respect for even the most esoteric ideologies

“Hoppean monarchism” yea I get where ur coming from bro “Juche socialism” I understand the appeal dawg

@_debarshi yeah I can empathize with how a low IQ fellow might find this theory convincing

Happy 4th!

@rasalghulvc the internet made me irreligious

@TeddyRaccovelt @TenreiroDaniel you would whore your principles out like this

@bastard_brian I think it fucks over smart people a lot as well

@bastard_brian i think it’s more about personality, high openness low neuroticism etc

based ! https://x.com/zamaan_qureshi/status/1411782046524100612

@LucreSnooker @alth0u all inventions are discoveries 🤧

@JasonOverstreet consummate performance 🙏😂👍

bottomwit: ocean fire look cool 😎 midwit: this endorses capitalism/socialism/etc upper midwit: Noooooo you can’t draw overarching conclusions about economic systems based on random engineering failures topwit: ocean fire look cool 😎

@lalaAlicelala what’s the straussian reading of this tweet tho

unfollowing all non-autists. prove your aspie credentials to me rn

@TeddyRaccovelt only coomers say this

owned https://x.com/Andr3jH/status/1411812804550668294

@bowserbot2 lmfao

@ProteusMorrill I do now king

@AlanMCole with flying colors, king 🤴

@LockeBenji normie af

@__frye 🤫 🤫

@Plinz ty for this high effort shitpost you’re in

@theashelina i love it

@ProfoundPilled what 100mg of adderall a day does to a disagreeable Mf

@HODLMexicano @Plinz high effort is roughly synonymous with high quality in these parts

@AOCummies too hot king

@AOCummies based

@Jaden000000 @clairlemon yes thanks for finding it. comically stupid

@djmicrobeads @clairlemon empiricism is only as good as the models you apply to your data

@djmicrobeads @clairlemon you substitute domain specific theory for statistical theory

the thing is I don’t even think taleb was right but this line of reasoning was so specious that I had to take his side …

@bowserbot2 for context: I don’t think Taleb is saying IQ doesn’t work his thesis (which I’m not endorsing) is that IQ works pretty well as a predictor under a certain limit, then seems more or less noise, which he tries and demonstrates with a simulation of some distribution

@bowserbot2 even if what he says is true IQ should work as a simple predictive statistic as Claire keeps saying. but the idea that you can’t compare several hypothetical explanations for a dataset from a theory level argument seems very silly

@bowserbot2 @telmudic I’m willing to admit I am purposefully missing the forest for the trees here because I don’t like her phrasing

@aquariusacquah @clairlemon @Quillette bro don’t make me delete this i eas a small child

@calfphysiognomy 🤣

@Scientific_Bird @bowserbot2 @telmudic doesn’t he try to verify in his paper?

@bowserbot2 @Scientific_Bird @telmudic lol I remember reading this way back in the day but idr how

@phl43 @bowserbot2 yeah tbh I deleted because I don’t care strongly enough about this — I’m sure Taleb cherrypicked a dataset that works well for his argument

@phl43 @bowserbot2 I was just mad because I think simulating a distribution and seeing how it matches the observables is an entirely valid way to learn things

@AClockwork_Crow I buy it

@boop it’s fine girls get a pass

@retttx wait explain

this is my greatest baitpost of all time

@guituary @AOCummies we already mutually mmr doxxed. you’re not on our level

making money is an entirely unrelated hobby from spending money

@rplevy lmao

@AdsoOfBelk @astrachan yeah same

@varun_mathur @tommycollison @patrickc published his special theory of relativity, theory of brownish motion, photoelectric effect, etc at 25

@alth0u MF prolly sold

i know now I will never be truly great at anything in life . except poasting fire tweets

@alth0u fed ruined US. many such cases

@BroductManager that’s exactly what I want

@nosilverv contrarian’d yourself back into EA

@burningcopium 😓😅

@_holyweather the immortal

@burningcopium pick an earlier iteration! stop training!

@tamalefencer done

@finnitejest bro your tweet is a quote of what I said in the gc

@finnitejest exactly

@BarneyFlames you decide

@nominalthoughts put on some pirate metal rn

@ghosttyped yeah this is cope tho the qualities that made them good at making money also make them less interested in lots of leisure and indulgence

@midwit100 nice

@theashelina lmao

this twete is solid because there’s two ways to read it and everyone will pick their favorite

@IvyAstrix My tweets don’t make it into tankie twitter thank god. I am too obscurantist

@jeff82874662 honestly I think this kind of replantation is a major L because often times if trees are not already growing there it will require a massive amount of energy to make them grow

@jeff82874662 i mean think about it Jeff why are trees not already growing there there’s no shortage of seeds in the wild - only nutrients, water, supporting ecosystem if the first is missing the project is already hosed, and the second will require massive energy to pump in

@jeff82874662 and the last one is more or less impossible to provide which is often why rainforest deforestation is very hard to reverse. but perhaps you can do a little on the margin

@chrisgardenuk I don’t wanna get into this but imo earning is inherently good because valuable goods and services flow in the other direction of money making money means you’ve provided some kind of value to the rest of the world (approximating for externalities and such)

@Willyintheworld @jeff82874662 yeah possibly correct re: recently deforested area

@chopstickfury01 @jeff82874662 yes_chad.jpg we will boil bolsonaro inshallah

he presents tesla as the counterexample. but its clear in 2021 that tesla would not have survived were its social mission not catnip for oceans of capital desperate to invest in "human progress". the social entrepreneurship component turned out to be vital

in zero to one peter thiel talks about the failure of "social entrepreneurship" and how cleantech relied too much on goodwill of the public and investors to get anywhere & thereby created a bubble

all qualitative distinctions are really matters of quanitty, so he's still right that Solyndra relied *way* too much on goodwill

@ftuuky yeah this is a based heuristic but unfortunately probably got Goodhart'd very quickly. its not that hard for suit wearing guys to switch to tshirts

@smstxtmsg i know because the technology is something of a black box to most investors. this is not a matter of their ignorance but by necessity. they had some guesses on whether tesla would deliver or not, but the valuation has always outstripped the promise

@smstxtmsg because the valuation always reflected a near certainty of success

@perceptions420 yeah true. in general s*ci*l entr*preneursh*p is cancer

btw i say this is a longtime diehard $TSLA bull who bought without investigating much because i love elon and i love tesla though i did have some insight on their AV software not being vaporware

@kitten_beloved @jeff82874662 sure, but it's like forest entrepreneurship, meaning most will fail

@BarneyFlames bitcoin fans don't think it's anti-social or energy wasting

@BarneyFlames yes because they want to replace them with what they believe are better ones. they can talk your ear off about "how much energy tradfi takes"

it tends to have far more interesting mechanics, world-building, story gimmicks which attracts autism-adjacent types but the moral universe tends to be normie internationalist liberal stuff "just be nice to everyone" "dont fight your enemies just talk them out of violence"

the thing about anime is, most of it is really boring philosophically

i think the best western tv is usually a lot more boring story-wise but tends to be more philosophically complex even the normie stuff like game of thrones, rick and morty anyway this is why evangelion is the best anime

@__________ur0 interesting i havent watched bleach

@__femb0t @__________ur0 fembot is about to block me

@__femb0t give me the recos!

@astrachan yep

@cauchyfriend so maybe i didn't understand but when do the viewers empathize with fascism

@__femb0t trying to recover my MAL

@__femb0t https://myanimelist.net/animelist/roondogg

@cauchyfriend idk i dont think at any point you can sympathize with the marleyans having been conditioned to like the main protags since season 1. if anything you can sympathize with the eldians being oppresesd by the marleyans

@cauchyfriend and eren pretty clearly becomes the bad guy when he tries to take over the island, it's apparent from his new visage and personality

@TeddyRaccovelt correct

@TeddyRaccovelt the ideal thing to do after that date is to watch it again slowly at home while analyzing the dialogue at her

@gbrl_dick its a good one gabe ive just been waiting for an excuse to deploy this image

@__femb0t reviewing gwerns list i realize i forgot to include a whole slew of stuff

@__femb0t this makes me distrust him DN is the exact kind of anime that tries to subvert the thing i'm talking about and add a modicum of moral complexity, but its still kind of juvenile by western tv standards

@__femb0t bepop, lain, flcl, bit of hellsing. obv i cant reach the level of the great master Gwern tho. truly encyclopedic

@__femb0t nausica, totoro

@andrej_haulis elon also shitpoasting

@__femb0t but i will say, my fave visual media of all time from any country has gotta be NGE and EOE. no other tv or movie has impacted my life more. so anime has that going for it

@__femb0t take your pick of even a lot of the normie tier high dramas like the moral complexity and quality of the characters in breaking bad >>> the ppl in death note

@JacquesAppleba1 yea

@arctanno tried the new LOGH but it’s sucked, apparently the old one is the move. Lain is great 👍 but it’s the anime equivalent of a postrat twitter thread, it’s purposefully obscurantist and hard to watch. still enjoyed tho

@arctanno will look into the other ones

@lalaAlicelala there’s plenty of great ones that actually make the person look cooler and more aesthetic but yea most fail. you have to already look like a god beforehand

@lalaAlicelala obligatory zyzz

@lalaAlicelala yeah by plenty I mean “on earth” lol not necessarily people I know

@lalaAlicelala famous internet bodybuilder, died too early

@bowserbot2 a shame you seemed an honest bot

@bowserbot2 yes I love Vinland saga, but I think it’s extremely atypical, haven’t seen anything like it

@undefinedbuddy @hoffridder who even knows

@bowserbot2 me neither

@arctanno lmao

@bowserbot2 wait do you mean that reply bc it’s just a play on the next lyric

@bowserbot2 yeah probably but few things stand out - technology as a false promise - lain is literally an egregore - conspiracy minded, mk ultra shitpoasting

@alth0u true

@alth0u although I think it has less to do with farmer physiognomy and more to do with “complex society” physiognomy city dwelling is a far bigger risk factor than farming

@orpheaskk @cauchyfriend yea it’s not interesting imo v ham handed

Codex/Copilot exerts a centralizing influence on software development on the margin it makes it easier to copy / outsource thinking than to implement something from scratch wonder what this means for the long run

@halvorz @SkepticalAlpaca counting or not counting the potential lab leak :^)

@aniiyengar why foom?

ok ok future where Codex tricks people into writing code snippets that allow it to enter their system and use their compute for paperclips

@aniiyengar like this? https://x.com/tszzl/status/1412219418747174912