@Teleonomic @ThePragmatist5 @ElskanTriumph this is true for most people, yeah. but the credentialing problem is hard and the rent seekers need to keep seeking their rent. i think there are a lot of good solutions in the pipeline to get around the "college problem". I particularly like the ISA model
@pupperio even relatively bad degrees come with a wage premium in the US
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@pupperio also the number of STEM graduates has fast outpaced the number of other grads, but that doesn't seem to have helped much
@ElskanTriumph I think basically "measure success via common targets and give vouchers" is a great plan, but i'm wondering what you might do at the ground level running a charter school with relative freedom
@jdcmedlock @MaxGurewitz I agree but I mean let's look at the sectors that are most concerning: healthcare and education. Most people don't get to see their doctors for more than 15 minutes a pop. Professors teach undergrads in mass lectures 300 at a time. These don't strike me as labor of love sectors
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@jdcmedlock @MaxGurewitz if anything most people consider their experiences in the healthcare industry dehumanizing and awful; a process that takes in meat on one end and churns out healthier meat on the other
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@jdcmedlock @MaxGurewitz I think we can have a future with a healthcare sector that utilizes more "labor of love" and also costs less at the same time
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@HenryPorters on the aggregate level, we actually spend more on low income school districts than high income ones. there is a good writeup on this somewhere, but local funding is not the only source of school funding
@ElskanTriumph if vouchers are granted based on public standards of accountability, then is there an issue? i.e. vouchers conditional on performance. it would unleash massive forces of bottom up exploration and experimentation
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@ElskanTriumph bureaucratic bloat, redundant administrative roles, top-down orders and limited flexibility
I think to get around these things, private charters are the only way
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@jdcmedlock @MaxGurewitz right, but I doubt most of my healthcare costs go to lower skilled workers; it's probably the anesthesiologist charging 100k a pop. for a surgery that hits the heaviest, since there has not been much productivity growth in their occupation.
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@DukakisDude those who choose not to have a take are braver than the troops
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@HenryPorters as you might imagine, teaching in lower income districts is much more difficult than high income ones, but without a concordant wage premium. so yeah i see your point
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@ElskanTriumph what are some examples of abuse in private charters?
@pupperio I think universities are a whole nother ball game. Universities start making sense if you think of them as certification farms. You pay $100k and 4 years of your time to get a stamp of approval. I mostly meant K-12 education.
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@BigBreakfastLob private charters imo only way to ensure this kind of cost cutting diligence
@indyneoliberals @DukakisDude yep, the impact of schooling on outcome is overrated. but we make do with what we have
@Imperial_Eagle2 the industrial revolution and its conseq----
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@StephenBuell2 yeah, i think this is the unspoken truth about low income school districts and underperforming students
@ESYudkowsky only 100:1?
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@NeoLibBen it was very much to limit the number of people infected, regardless of what the "flatten the curve" propaganda taught. if you reduce the R_0 temporarily to below 0, then you can do test and trace methods. after a year, you have a vaccine
https://medium.com/@joschabach/flattening-the-curve-is-a-deadly-delusion-eea324fe9727
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@NeoLibBen tl;dr of this article is that the level of flattening required to keep the healthcare system safe is infeasible and these nice graphs have not been portraying that reality.
@NeoLibBen what we really want is to get the case count to a level where we can actually selectively test/track all the active cases of covid to keep R_0 low and tentatively reopen the rest of the economy. that's what every successful country (SK, Japan, China, Singapore) has done
@arnoblalam @NeoLibBen right, R_0<1.0* is what I meant, my bad
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@NeoLibBen below 1.0*****!
@eigenrobot we must immediately stop thinking
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@everettstamm1 ya agree but important to note that the “experts” have their own careers to protect. why teachers unions protest so hard against teachers unions for example: private school teachers are not likely to join unions
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@everettstamm1 seriously doubt that all teachers agree on how to improve the school system, for example. But yeah, I’m finding bottom up is a common theme
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@eigenrobot absolutely wouldn’t be surprised if certain parts of the government are running experiments that other parts of the government don’t know about
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lmao does this seem healthy to u https://x.com/byHeatherLong/status/1254870462720626688
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@nectarina12 ngl didn’t believe u were real until now
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@selentelechia yes
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@RealNicoForReal @lessthanafew in the US, there is state funding and national funding to schools that mostly cancels out the local wealth effects
@micsolana @drethelin p sure it’s some sort of weird optical phenomena
I have to believe this to stay sane
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wtf I love Gretchen Whitmer now
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@Aelkus Asuka = former gifted kid trope
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@eigenrobot @selentelechia end of eva on acid
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it’s also like this for “healthcare is a human right” except much worse
@traditionrevolt woke
@StephenBuell2 perhaps, but I the UN declaration of human rights declares more fundamental rights that aren't based on material privilege. The simplest being the right of personal freedom (abolishing slavery and slave trade). I can't think of much ambiguity there.
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@StephenBuell2 or that all people are equal before the law
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@TedTalked do we all deserve mansions? do we all deserve hovels? does the definition of sufficiently good change as the material conditions of your society improves? if so, how was the right universal at all?
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@TedTalked the sentiment that everybody should have shelter is fine and good, it's just silly to say such a thing is a 'fundamental right' or something like that
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@JuanDie95776550 which utilities? is internet a utility? does the definition change with the material progress of mankind at large?
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@StephenBuell2 I think the liberal realist position is yes, we should enforce these things in other countries. the other part of that is that the West isn't possessed of infinite military power, so you have to be pragmatic about the projects you can and can't undertake
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all mankind has a universal human right to medical immortality. at this moment, nobody is possessed of right. to correct this egregious human rights violation, we must ensure the profits of the pharmaceutical industry and the safety of its research apparatus. chekm8 leftists 😂
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@mmt_lvt nah man, I think the logic is flawed from its core. not complaining that the slogan is too pithy or something
@mmt_lvt what is super-duper premium? doesn't it change every year based on the current state of medicine? getting very hard to defend calling it a 'universal human right'
@mmt_lvt this is Jon Mill's rule utilitarianism vs my act consequentialism
@mmt_lvt ppl will complain that Americans aren't able to afford the newest insulin formulation but *can* afford the older 'generic' (biosimilar) variety, and that this is a human rights violation. why don't you spend more time giving generic insulin to the global poor?
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@alexmschatz yep. I think the original UN formulation of human rights is very good
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@mmt_lvt @StephenBuell2 seems fine to me, and without ambiguity. I consider slavery to be involuntary. if you voluntarily sign some of your income away in a non-coercive way (you aren't under the threat of death) then I'm not sure who can complain about this. after all debt is a very similar concept
@GerEEEEldo there's a lot of ambiguity under liberalism
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@mmt_lvt there is definitely some nuance. most doctors will prescribe the new variety bc they're being lobbied by the pharma companies to do so, even if it's 10% better and 1000% more expensive
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@mmt_lvt @StephenBuell2 some govt guardrails in this area are probably in order. For example, requiring such contracts to have a total payment cap might be an idea. But as you mention, the incentive of the ISA-holder is aligned with yours; they want to get you earning lots of money as quick as possible
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@mmt_lvt @StephenBuell2 "people don't understand math" is, okay, fair, but yet we allow payday lending and high interest credit cards. imo, this is a *good thing*. over time, if a financial product is a scam, that knowledge will diffuse through society so ppl don't have to do the math for themselves
is nge cyberpunk?
can't believe we're rly gonna keep pretending we didnt find out that UFOs were real yesterday
@powerbottomdad1 navy confirmed that they dont know what that shit was and that the footage/testimony is real
nvm this shit is dumb
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q7jcBGLIpus
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@dogenot u got a link to the pilots testimony? this guy makes a lot of sense to me
@dogenot @eigenrobot nah this guy gave perfectly good trig on why it's not going that fast
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PLyEO0jNt6M&list=PL-4ZqTjKmhn5Qr0tCHkCVnqTx_c0P3O2t&index=3&t=0s
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@dogenot why would the army declassify this shit if they thought it was a real threat or a high probability of seriously weird phenomena. i'm willing to bet the spooks release this stuff just to rile people up and get a kick out of it.
@dogenot anyway, looking at the direct evidence is better than second hand opinions
@powerbottomdad1 yeah that makes perf sense honestly. i'm sure the army loves fuckin with us
@dogenot they might be trainees/inexperienced who knows
@dogenot i think harry reid is more likely to be trolling than anyone else
@dogenot who knows, it might even be one of his social media interns
@AsVacation @TedTalked “adequate space” lol this is meaningless
@TedTalked @AsVacation the real world is quantitative and qualitative
@TedTalked @AsVacation i meant. the real world is quantitative* and not qualitative. i'd much prefer a world where everybody has more wealth and therefore adequate housing. I would also not like to dress that desire up in pseudo-religious language that disallows consideration of tradeoffs
@powerbottomdad1 agree
@kenaviba sure, but ... say there's a life saving surgery that *can* be done, but it will require half the GDP of Earth to fund it. should it be done?
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@TedTalked @AsVacation I think that the degree of inequality each of us are willing to tolerate is more or less arbitrary and we take a societal average to decide the amount we're willing to allow while continuing to operate under free enterprise.
@TedTalked @AsVacation the language of human rights short circuits the fact that this collective objective function exists and allows some people to put themselves on the moral high ground of universal law. to point out that these laws are not in fact universal is a significant thing
@TedTalked @AsVacation inequality is inevitable when people generate different values of output. this means some people will be able to afford mansions and cutting edge surgeries whereas others may be able to afford hovels and generic insulin. there is no one 'shelter' and there is no one 'healthcare'
@AsVacation it's not the slogan i'm trying to question here, it's the moral philosophy that generates it and what it entails for policy
@AsVacation it's a simple matter of deontology vs utilitarianism
anyone elses DMs not working?
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@AOCummies but i love self diagnosing with psychological issues and thereby removing all personal responsibility for problems in my life
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@TedTalked @AsVacation in a system where a billion people have the same amount of wealth, some lady named JK Rowling produces a work called Harry Potter. Everybody wants a copy, and they trade some of their resources with her. Thus inequality was born
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@TedTalked @AsVacation approximately a million people have a rare heart disease that requires 1,000,000 memebucks to cure. only JK rowling has access to this many memebucks. have human rights been violated?
@TedTalked @AsVacation as long as humans are idiosyncratic, unique, and free, inequality is inevitable.
@TedTalked @AsVacation I am in favor of a robust social safety net, that's not what we're debating here. we're talking about the moral foundations. "The Bare Minimum" will continue to move and change throughout time with (1) the amount of wealth produced by society and (2) people's moral values
@TedTalked @AsVacation if human rights are subject to change they can hardly be said to be universal in that they apply to all people across time and space
@TedTalked @AsVacation and it's not a triviality like "speedy public trials". there are tremendous differences in what we call adequate healthcare now and what we called adequate healthcare 100 years ago
@AOCummies wow that’s so interesting bro
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my guy will do anything to get his factories running again https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1255380013488189440
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@Brrrrrpp I mean he’s just wrong. Doesn’t make you a bad person to have an incorrect belief. The man seriously thinks that the mortality rate is low and that lockdowns don’t work
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@Brrrrrpp and who knows. I think the probability is low but it’s possible
@Brrrrrpp imo his bad takes don’t even begin to weigh against achievements in technology and industry. It’s like “he started a miracle car company and created the electric revolution possibly making a dent in climate change, but had some bad tweets so nobody can say if he’s good or not”
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@Brrrrrpp also fwiw he was a maxed out Clinton donor and vocally anti trump
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@Brrrrrpp his twitter is a real negative mark on his pr. Always puts foot in mouth and continually tweets on ambien lol. I never know to what degree he’s trolling
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@ParkerWHouston @StephenBuell2 I think many of these elements are ambiguous though. Pretty sure the original articles don’t mention it
@Brrrrrpp you’d have to be extraordinarily stupid to invest in a car and space startup if money/profit was the motive. These are notoriously terrible industries
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@Brrrrrpp I saw the news about the campaign groups, but the news usually doesn’t tell the full story. He basically donated around $50k to both Rs and Ds, which is common for businessppl who need working relationships with both parties
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@Brrrrrpp sorry for becoming elon_defender97 in ur replies lol I’m goin to bed now
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wtf I love Putin now https://x.com/NeerajKA/status/1255171320284958720
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@hamandcheese @jdcmedlock in shambles
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@Noahpinion overly optimized hyper fragile supply chains
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@Hellachans @VinceNeoliberal in my eyes the creation of two companies of the caliber he’s created is absolving of all sins. To succeed in not just the difficult automotive industry, not just the difficult space flight industry, but both at the same time means to me he’s one of the best CEOs in history
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@Hellachans @VinceNeoliberal One of the only people delivering on the promise of the optimistic technological future
@Hellachans @VinceNeoliberal well at the least, it’s definitely not in danger of imploding as it was thought to be just a year ago. The model3 ramp up is mostly finished. I don’t see anything stopping them from becoming a global automotive powerhouse
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@koaleszenz UBI >>>
You get to pick your time preference instead of borrowing against future NIT checks
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elon_defender97 has logged on come at me bros
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I briefly understood exponential growth and then forgot when the knowledge became tiring
@eean agreed
QALYs are a good metric and saving younger ppl is indeed more important. Even the triage centers in emergency rooms and COVID wards understand this. They'll gladly unplug an 80 y.o if they think they can save a kid. https://x.com/JasonSCampbell/status/1255573596933685250
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but this is also another nail in the coffin for "death panel" rhetoric
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t. Francis Fukuyama
@ahardtospell I just assume the Vatican functions like it did in Renaissance Italy, has its own coinage, standing armies etc
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so how confident are we that the polling bugs from 2016 are at all corrected
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akshually after you add the 2 years of Elon time dilation this will end up being correct https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1240754657263144960
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my phone rings, Elon has made another Bad Tweet
me:
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@ourobororoboruo it’s timeless, like all good stories
@reesemcardlepgh you're gonna be waiting for a while pal
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@Hellachans get with the times man, the market is all knowing
https://x.com/MiloJKing/status/1239925480566018049?s=20
@AOCummies a heckin chonkerino amirite
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@paulg the idea of freedom of movement is that individuals will have the ability to vote with their feet on country
revealed preference > stated preference
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@EvanSandhoefner if anything it’s too interesting
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@Noahpinion The tv show is pretty goofy esp in the early seasons ... I’m still waiting for the good scifi prestige tv we deserve. No more Westworld garbo
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@selentelechia have you ever read the golden compass books?
features an alt history where Calvin becomes a global dictator lol
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@noahopinion @Noahpinion I respekt your bad opinion but Westworld s1 is babby tier scifi. The western audiences have been so abused they’re forced to think its good
we🙏need🙏more🙏libertarian🙏witches https://x.com/CNLiberalism/status/1255889491484647426
@NamithVorakkara I am looking forward to 2100 Sino-American space opera
@AOCummies they’re right abt the inconsistency tho ... it’s either a very dangerous virus and China hid the body count or China didn’t lie and we should be reopening. Can’t have both
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dumbass dick move by someone who thinks her job is way more important than it actually is https://x.com/rskudesia/status/1255907542380748801
@potatoman245 I think it’s a very bad idea to hold an online test like this and expect students not to cheat ... idc how moral they are, you have to look at the incentives. figure out an assessment that’s hard to cheat on
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@sonyasupposedly very Taleb-ey
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@potatoman245 @KHicksEfficient For some people, these grades are life or death matters. Esp for many international students. It’s because these grades are important and cheating incentives are high that you should build tests robust to cheating
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@potatoman245 @KHicksEfficient What this professor is doing *does* discourage cheating, true, but the punishment is being applied in a non systematic lottery-ish way. idk doesn’t sit well with me
@KHicksEfficient @potatoman245 it’s not even that. It’s game theory. In a situation like this, I’m just going to assume everybody else is cheating and looking online, because the cost is so low. So by not cheating I’m screwing myself. Therefore I’d google all the questions before submitting
@KHicksEfficient @potatoman245 It’s the psychology of why there are bank runs or why toilet paper runs out at the start of pandemics — if everybody else is doing it, you can’t be the one left holding the bag
@KHicksEfficient @potatoman245 fwiw when I went to uni it was the Chinese international community that were well known for cheating
@potatoman245 @KHicksEfficient I agree, and most people would agree that cheating is bad. I think it’s a tragedy of the commons scenario.
@potatoman245 @KHicksEfficient If any company in a competitive industry decides to stop polluting, they’ll get killed by their competitors. You can do what the professor did, and capriciously destroy some polluting companies, but it'll seem cruel/unusual and probably won’t make a dent in the long run
@KHicksEfficient @potatoman245 It’s very hard to catch. There’s no chance that a significant portion of cheaters will get expelled. In fact, you have to be kind of dumb to word for word copy a chegg answer onto a final exam.
@KHicksEfficient @potatoman245 not what I’m saying. LE is good when it’s applied fairly and regularly. Entrapment is bad
@KHicksEfficient @potatoman245 I was a TA for a very large college class, I’m not unfamiliar with cheating or proctoring exams. I heard my old CS department cancelled all final exams and came up with alternate evaluation metrics because they knew it would be impossible to combat cheating for online exams
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lol this one of my old cs profs
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@ChrisExpTheNews @potatoman245 not institutional incentives, I’m talking about evaluations that are hard/impossible to cheat on
and this is a good thing https://x.com/QiaochuYuan/status/1255932134029619200
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unless you’re saying religious beliefs are bad ;)
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@Noahpinion because we are doing 50 separate lockdowns instead of 1 federal one
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congrats, you’re an atheist. Now you have to pick one of 3 classes:
- Marxist
- techno capital singularity chaser
- Nazi
the unspoken 4th choice is staring directly into the void and taking the blackpill
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@discourseloverr yup, same
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@aquariusacquah yeah, I think a lot of young Americans are more secular than they are religious, despite what they call themselves. Bruenig for one
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@andrej_haulis I tend to disagree. My view is that humans need theology to function, religious or otherwise
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@Teleonomic more a commentary on what i've seen irl than anything
@roisbelh @discourseloverr it's a secular rapture cult. basically ppl who believe that strong AI will be here soon and bring about a utopian future / the end of the world as we know it. among SV types it's shrouded in quasi-religious mysticism.
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@Noahpinion I think Black Mirror has fallen off a cliff. imo last season was pretty disappointing
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@Noahpinion outside of Striking Vipers which was hilarious and based
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@Noahpinion FWIW the boys is great. cant wait for s2
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@RIPAOCummies @DukakisDude what did he say?
@Noahpinion nah man. i knew you were one of the good ones when you said Westworld sucked
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@HaroldValentine no not all but in this tweet I meant atheist physicalists
this account sucks fucking ass now man stop taking political positions https://x.com/dril/status/1256104319419441152
whoever the drilbot guy was, you were ten times better than real dril
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@arcanearchon @discourseloverr synthesis: butlerian jihad
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@Noahpinion I think it’s kind of one and done thing tho
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@Noahpinion Everyone is prepared for the tail risk the second time around
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@qwertyplication Covered under Marxism :)
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@andrej_haulis it’s not about explaining the physical world but rather of giving us a reason to live
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@polytr0pe @selentelechia Calvin is not an active character in the books, but the alt-history of Lyra’s world is that Calvin became the pope and then started a global theocracy
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@aquariusacquah it has a clear political angle tho .. did he comment on kavanaugh? Why did he make the “97 year old babbling doofus tweet” after Bernie dropped? The mans become just yet another Brooklyn comedy writer
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@selentelechia when Half of them are gonna die of typhoid you have to become an r strategist
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@Noahpinion both are puritanical and I love it
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>be elon
>tweet some blatant stock price manipulation
>oh shit oh fuck
>say some other crazy shit to throw off the feds
>they can't take my stuff if i just sell it all
@epicbapl @homsiT pretty sure he gets compensation based on share price, plus there are various convertible debt obligations that get converted to equity based on the equity price.
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@jdcmedlock @Brrrrrpp live view of James Medlock
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@TheStalwart clown world
@AOCummies when liberals lie they have to come up with some complicated economic/political mumbo jumbo to justify it. vs the chad trump who changes his mind multiple times in one press briefing
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@DylMeisner in American politics 49% is a very good approval rating for a president. But it hardly makes sense to look at one outlier instead of the running average
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government is incompetent and shouldn't intervene in anything except the geopolitical situations of war torn highly unstable regions haha xD
@CapitalistGhoul @DylMeisner I think Ford's counseling notes from 2004 ish were top notch evidence. plus the way she went about relaying her claims (strict adherence to anonymity, etc.). her disposition in front of congress vs kavanaugh's.
@CapitalistGhoul @DylMeisner it's obviously not enough to make a legal argument, but enough to convince me like 75% that that shit happened.
@neolibureaucrat if you go that route you have to apply a simple test to policy proposals: could the most mediocre mid level deep state bureaucrat in the whole world successfully carry out your mission? if so, proceed
Kind of a facile argument considering (1) there are giant swathes of Americans suffering “financial hardship” rn and (2) landlords would make any available selfish move in a heartbeat. Screwing landlords is very fun and very legal https://x.com/CNLiberalism/status/1256265255057006593
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@FlatTailSpin Those retirees are incredibly good at defending their interests and cutthroat with their rentals lol. Risk taking is inherent to owning capital. Profit without risk is kleptocracy
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@jdcmedlock #firstworldanarchists
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@FlatTailSpin Taking what I said a bit too literally
@AOCummies IG softcore porn industry boomin
@reaIDickMNixon The incredible bits Elon could pull off if he wanted ... I can only dream ...
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@koaleszenz this is a good thing since the cash poor prefer to liquidate. It’s not quite that easy for capitalists to time the markets like that. If it was, every idiot with a robinhood account would be rich.
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@ChrisCroy @reaIDickMNixon Dude could buy twitter and delete it if he wanted
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@koaleszenz what you really want is a monetary program where infinite QE doesn’t reach the banks first and prop up corporate debt and equities first and foremost
@mattparlmer this is it, chief
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@mattparlmer it’s also overoptimization and obfuscation. brittle supply chains based on brittle models. the abstraction layers implemented 30 years ago are no longer useful now. need a total accelerationist overhaul of the financial system and most gov institutions
@mattparlmer strangely, for all our risk aversity we expose ourselves to tons of risk by making overly tight assumptions about fundamentals. we will always be able to trade with China. Housing will never go bust
@reaIDickMNixon absolutely true
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@DegenRolf just bc they’re liberal?
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@jomgy Texas seems to fine with city growth
never doubt me bros https://x.com/tszzl/status/1252424284460314625
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@andrej_haulis no what’s it about?
@Cullen_OK you're gonna pay for this
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@Cullen_OK I always knew it was zombie capital on the other side of my bet
@Cullen_OK saw this effect during the primary too. huge bump from highly online bernie voters, you could tell from the comments sections
@Cullen_OK good point
@Cullen_OK time to invest my whole 401k
@Cullen_OK @boringcompany New Jersey and Michigan both have legal online gambling now, should run a prediction market out of either of those without capital limits
@Robyn9124 rights aren't real
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@Robyn9124 but say they are, for the sake of argument. if so "human rights" / "humanism" is its own separate religion enshrined in the founding documents of NGOs like the UN. i
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@Robyn9124 if you buy into the idea that all humans have fundamental rights, then it seems defensible that government exists to protect those natural rights and not to *grant* them
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@Robyn9124 this seems obvious because we often decide to topple states we think are not respecting their citizen's natural rights. and that can only be morally just if the liberal conception of natural rights come before the power of statehood
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@Robyn9124 there are obviously pages and pages of theory you could read about this but imo "States" are best conceptualized as a protection racket, or organized violence. Feudal lords fighting other feudal lords. you pay them and they'll keep others from trampling on your "rights"
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@averykimball damn stop flexin ur highly regular heart rhythm bro
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would like to see more econ papers using agent based simulations
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@ne0agent1c tend to think this is the future of most social sciences
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@neolibureaucrat in machine learning, algorithms are considered strong when they hold up under broad sets of hyperparameters. number of parameters alone shouldn't be an issue; after all it's not like theory can easily succeed when faced with diff eqs with a million terms
@neolibureaucrat one example is the use of simulation in physics for early universe cosmology; you can find certain constants by searching around the parameter space and seeing which result looks close to the mass distribution of the real universe
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@neolibureaucrat but yeah, the imperial college simulation, stacking uncertainty on top of uncertainty without any ground truth to compare to is difficult to make predictions with
@aquariusacquah fkin Taylor Lorenz BLOCKED me i wanna see the drama
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@aquariusacquah Jason's a masochist lmao
but i agree that Taylor Lorenz is not a top tier tech journo. she mostly just writes radlib culture war commentary
@neolibureaucrat wasnt quite talking about ML in econ. just that ML is a field where empirical simulation and heavily parametrized models are the name of the game, and the kind of epistemic standards they use to gut check
@PereGrimmer this is true, but it takes some artistic vision to pose problems that tantalize people into thinking they're solvable and interesting
@ne0liberal hacks on top of hacks, kludge on top of kludge
@sonyasupposedly the force of "correction" seems to bias in one way or another, depending on whether you're more optimistic or pessimistic. i.e. I consider myself overly optimistic and quickly get over good changes but dwell on bad ones
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@ccopprell was reading this one earlier
https://papers.nips.cc/paper/7467-universal-growth-in-production-economies.pdf
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the male peacock evolved its tail simply to PROVE to the female peacocks that it could support such a useless and nice looking structure https://t.co/EZkScrjqoo
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forgive my teleology folks
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@browserdotsys I think the exploration of novel strategies has a tendency to throw others off, who’ve overfitted for a certain type of competitor
@browserdotsys The novel strategy doesn’t even have to be good for this to be true
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@browserdotsys Random strategy best strategy
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@sonyasupposedly We’ve always been at war with Oceania
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how 2 stop being a cunsoomer and start being a prodooser
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@Noahpinion @RealTurkana don’t forget PEPFAR
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it is with a heavy heart I must admit that Taleb is almost always right
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@AOCummies it’s a pretty nice gig honestly. imagine being paid to go off on randos on twitter
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@AOCummies only problem is they’re not actually paid well lul
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@scratchwork it’s probably possible to optimize for truth and engagement at the same time, but gets drowned out by latter
@AOCummies @ComfortablySmug gotta remember @ComfortablySmug lost his job bc of his twitter account. The journos make or break their careers on the quality of their poasting
@AOCummies o b e s i t y
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@jdcmedlock @gr8society i read this as whores and was v impressed
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every good startup and new nation has a crime at its heart
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the thing that liberals don't understand:
success is absolution
the revolutionary who wins is forgiven of all sins
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what happened in the 90s? wrong answers only
@NeerajKA smoking is anti fragile confirmed
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deep learning is a biological science
@Teleonomic we approach the study of neural networks in the way biologists approach complex systems of the body; we understand individual components, but don’t quite understand how they work at systems level, so we poke and prod them like nematodes until they do something interesting
@Teleonomic A lot is known about individual neurons and very little is known about the brain
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@Teleonomic agreed. A lot of people claim deep learning isn’t a science because the principles aren’t well understood, and we kind of study these systems from the top down. but I thought of biology and realized it’s kinda the same thing
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@sriramk @micsolana Star Trek ain’t even bad tho
@peaktransit look at how many ppl are collapsed at -1.0 lmao
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@peaktransit holy shit just fucking normalize it lmao
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@shawnfromtwitt someone please explain this meme, my family is dying
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@Cullen_OK @peaktransit It is kept under lock and key in a vacuum sealed environment in Vermont for fear of degradation.
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@_djpn @browserdotsys why aren’t the gd markets open all day now cmon
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@_djpn @browserdotsys we are all NEET traders in this blessed year
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@powerbottomdad1 his books are so insufferable. 90% rant and 10% content. I think his medium blog and some of his talks are good (condenses all the hatred and leaves only the content)
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@jomgy miss the old drilbot so much
@kingdomakrillic was a treasure
@hardmaru more than 20, at least
it’s amazing how much more blackpilled I am now than 2 months ago
basically
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@averykimball that’s also why “black box” criticisms of ML models don’t make too much sense ... we are all black boxes
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@GerEEEEldo wattadick
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@selentelechia same with Roman, Egyptian, Hindu, pre-Jewish ... the ancient mythologies weren’t constructed with our sensibilities in mind and I love them for it. Takes a touch of madness to understand them
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@interpretantion Peter Norvig “Artificial Intelligence”
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@NKel26 @discourseloverr @DukakisDude should widows be forced to throw themselves on their husband’s funeral pyre?
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@aaronomus @NKel26 @discourseloverr @DukakisDude for example, say you had access to some device that measures the satisfaction level of all humans. The physical principle behind it need not be specified; it is clear some people are more satisfied than others, and that different states of being are more satisfactory than others
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@NKel26 @aaronomus @discourseloverr @DukakisDude well I don’t think the universe cares about human satisfaction if that’s what you’re asking. I think humans should care about human satisfaction. That’s a distillation of our primal instinct for compassion and cooperation
fucking neolibs man, they always win https://x.com/scottlincicome/status/1257412140446756867
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@NKel26 @aaronomus @discourseloverr @DukakisDude except, language exists. just because it’s a intersubjective fiction doesn’t make it any less real. if I stop using English words I’ll lose the ability to communicate with you, and then maybe we get eaten by a bear due to bad coordination
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@NKel26 @aaronomus @discourseloverr @DukakisDude calling some emergent phenomena a “social construct” isn’t an interesting observation. The chemical language of our cells intermediates to form a human. The moral language of humans intermediates to form a society
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don’t like how it’s a thought crime to wonder if SSRIs dampen creativity or have any undesirable effects at all
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@BonbonFork I remember when Kanye was tweeting stuff about being off his meds, people were #canceling him left and right
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@aquariusacquah kind of doubt this tho tbh. id guess the relationship has some confounding variable causing more of both
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@aquariusacquah especially among young girls it seems it's got something to do with social media
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these people havent even seen my 4D toroidal model https://x.com/jdawsey1/status/1257395401461727232
usually imagine the future of biotech as nanobots in the bloodstream but I think it’s gonna look more like hacking the body’s own subroutines and self repair systems to do crazy shit
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Judge Judys not dead idiots
Screenshot this
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@inspireprag no but twitter thinks so
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@similaralterity everybody wants to write a grand fantasy and not a slice of life / sword and sorcery
@similaralterity I don’t think there’s been a single good “prestige” scifi show. These screenwriters need to give up and adapt some source material
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@bufordsharkley @discourseloverr it’s not true that land prices are totally detached from reality. They represent some belief about the economic growth of surrounding areas. If land was really such a great, foolproof riskfree investment, we wouldn’t all be parking our wealth in equities
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@bufordsharkley @discourseloverr the usual argument against this is something about benefitting from positive externalities. But I ask you which asset class doesn’t benefit from externalities.
@similaralterity @ne0agent1c AC season 1 showed promise and then some weird shit happened towards the end
@similaralterity I generally liked game of thrones in the first few seasons tho ... understated, solid. Went horribly wrong when they ran out of source
@ne0agent1c @similaralterity recommend the book, whose ending imo is more satisfying. specifically modified the strange sister character
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@similaralterity ya tried to watch the Expanse but the production value is pretty meh
@similaralterity otoh there's Westworld with good production value and very mediocre scifi
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@alth0u yeah, and that's just the beginning. there are so many subsystems in the body that we know nothing about. you can regrow entire organs without doing anything to nervous system or genetics
@DukakisDude nah u were right the first time anthro is literally all anarcho-primitivists or other forms of leftist
@ianstevensc @DukakisDude lol unfortunately evo anthro bends radical in the exact opposite direction
@AOCummies my tweets are literally resurrecting these folks
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@ESYudkowsky uh is there any evidence at all that neurally encoded information can be preserved even after ice crystals explode the whole thing
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even physicalist materialism leads you right back to mind-body dualism
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i mean, i could be confused. i welcome people telling me i'm wrong
but if you dig to the bottom of the "star trek teleporter" problem, you quickly realize most or all of the matter that composes your body gets slowly replaced over time, but you don't feel you've died
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you have two options; you're either dying every second, or your mind is a pattern of information that persists regardless of hardware changes
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@GerEEEEldo I think that's the point. you evaporate the body on one end and create a new one on the other, but the mind is constant
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@orthigonian not at all contrary to materialism, but perhaps contrary to monism. if patterns can persist regardless of the physical substrate, then you can move the mind information to a computer simulator and you'll just as much be alive.
@orthigonian maybe that doesn't break monism, i don't understand the distinction that well
@UnhWut not just the atoms, but you could replace every neuron with a new one (w the same synaptic coding) and your mind would be "unchanged". you could even transfer the connectome (theoretically) into a perfect brain simulator. if that's so, aren't mind and body separate?
@UnhWut this is "property" dualism i suppose and not "substance" dualism. i'm using these terms very loosely here
@Teleonomic yeah that's fair. are operating system and hardware distinct? I reject "substance dualism" of course but this "property dualism" thing seems appealing
@UnhWut yes it's fine with physicalism, that's not the contention here. i'm talking about "property dualism" although i may not fully understand the terminology
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@UnhWut but say the song is also on sheet music! and an mp3 file! even if the circuit is hit by a meteor, the song survives. its lifetime is decorrelated from the circuit's
@orthigonian not nonphysical, but I think there's an important distinction between information and substrate
@scratchwork @orthigonian agreed, but what a relief it is! the religious were right all along -- we are immortal, if we can figure out how to preserve the mind after death
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endorse all of this but its truly dumb to think that some establishment centrist will be able to accomplish any of this https://x.com/ExponentsMag/status/1257316907562045440
basically have to rebuild the whole political establishment from the ground and I have no idea how that's ever gonna happen ... I think even far out candidates will just pivot to the center to meet political necessities
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think you'd need a total electoral realignment of some sort
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@NeoLibBen FUCK an index fund. Stick it to the man
@NeoLibBen If everybody is investing in the same index funds without doing security level analysis, that’s not very diverse at all
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@NeoLibBen like sheep to the financial slaughter
@nplg98 fuxk
unban zerohedge @twitter wtf
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@AOCummies @Twitter its taken me less than 2 months of quarantine to become a whole ass populist
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NEETs, pay attention. you are nothing compared to the baby joey
>literally live inside mother
>food and shelter automagically taken care of
>comfy af https://x.com/rodolpho/status/1257786223998971905
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@arcanearchon care to specify further?
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the royal babies don’t get this level of fanfare, wild https://x.com/Grimezsz/status/1257836061520101377
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is it because journalists suck https://x.com/washingtonpost/status/1257752761631981570
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@AOCummies I will revive her with meme magic
@aquariusacquah Only listening to Xinhua and People’s daily now
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@AOCummies delet this and post mcchicken
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@aquariusacquah @jehronp @Twitter 3 years in a row I didn’t do it in time lmfao. By the 4th year I knew my destiny
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@Noahpinion everybody is already calling it rona wtf
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@DukakisDude Knowing Things is universally considered a mistake
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@nectarina12 it’s so dumb it’s actually loops back to being good
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the main problem with the @ne0liberal account is that they’re not blackpilled enough. need to be way more pessimistic for the follows
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@NicholasElodeon there’s a couple of good ones, but they’re rare
thought Logan was really good
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@SwiftOnSecurity I dunno man I could think of no higher honor than my very birth being a viral internet meme. 1 million hits on twitter lol. What a strange and interesting history to have
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@SwiftOnSecurity Weird baby names are good, but I don’t think numbers are actually legal lol
@discourseloverr https://x.com/craigcaplan/status/1257739953469100032?s=21
possibly a high quality shop but I doubt it https://x.com/CraigCaplan/status/1257739953469100032
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@PereGrimmer @browserdotsys c h a o s m o n k e y
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@browserdotsys basically genetic algorithms with more frequent fitness evaluations (shorter gen time)
@Sharon_Kuruvila @ScholarsInk @Phenomenologiae Into this wild Abyss
The womb of Nature, and perhaps her grave--
Of neither sea, nor shore, nor air, nor fire,
But all these in their pregnant causes mixed
Confusedly, and which thus must ever fight,
Unless the Almighty Maker them ordain
His dark materials to create more worlds,-
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@Sharon_Kuruvila @ScholarsInk @Phenomenologiae not sure multiverse theory gets you “beyond metaphysics” so much as creates much more of it to answer for
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@Sharon_Kuruvila @ScholarsInk @Phenomenologiae in fiction the Everett interpretation of quantum theory (“many worlds”) is super over represented from the number of real world physicists who take it seriously, because it’s such a fun plot device
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@Sharon_Kuruvila @ScholarsInk @Phenomenologiae It’s really quite interesting to think at the edge of physics and metaphysics bc that boundary is tenuous — the previously immeasurable becomes measurable every few generations
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@Sharon_Kuruvila @ScholarsInk @Phenomenologiae metaphysical convictions often drive people to pursue various physical theories, like Einstein’s total conviction that we live in a deterministic universe
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@Sharon_Kuruvila @ScholarsInk @Phenomenologiae physics also has a lot to say about the flow of *information*, a seemingly non physical concept. For example, we know that the universe is fundamentally nonlocal
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bell_test_experiments
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the go brr meme is dead pls stop
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rip everyone who turned down their safe fb/google/amazon offers to go join airbnb and then got covid'd
very first world problem lol, obviously rip everyone else also
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@halvorz sometimes i'll neatly categorize them into evernote so i can close the window, smugly fantasizing that i'll one day read them
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@aquariusacquah but i'm also glad b.c. the VC fueled permanently unprofitable companies are gonna have their day of reckoning
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reminder that we've quantitatively shown the universe is nonlocal -- the substrate instantly communicates quantum information across arbitrary distances of space and time
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bell%27s_theorem
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@aquariusacquah yeah uber, lyft, airbnb are mostly fine and could be profitable if they stopped aggressively trying to grow and admitted a more reasonable valuation. im looking at postmates and shit
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@WillCJohns0n @aquariusacquah also true, i'm glad to have saudi oil money paying for my $5 uber rides
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and this is true regardless of the QM interpretation you choose
@jomgy basically Einstein showed with his special relativity that nothing can travel faster than the speed of light, including the flow of causality. meaning, information cannot be instantaneously transmitted but must obey the cosmic speed limits
@jomgy so he and a couple others published a paper (commonly known as the EPR paper) showing that one consequence of quantum mechanics is that there are situations where information where info is instantaneously transmitted. he took this to be a proof of its absurdity
@jomgy he and many others championed what's called the "local hidden variable" interpretation of QM, that there's no instant transmission and that the information is hidden locally somehow
@jomgy but Bell came up with a practical way to experimentally determine if these local hidden variables were real or not. and we've done the experiments, and they're most likely not. so the only conclusion is that particles communicate quantum state instantaneously across the cosmos
@jomgy more practically speaking, two "entangled particles" that are light years apart can directly affect each other. measuring one collapses the wavefunction of the other
@ZeframM yeah, you're right but i'm using 'information' loosely here. the point being that measuring one entangled particle instantly collapses the wavefunction of the other. the causality is instantaneous
@jomgy wavefunction collapse has pages of metaphysical writings on it but Copenhagen interpretation is loosely that particles exist in a superposition of all possible locations, until measured at which point they have a specific location (wavefunction collapse).
@jomgy i'm using location as an example, but this is true of all quantum states, most relevant being the spin state. governed by
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uncertainty_principle
@ZeframM sure, you can't purposefully manipulate the spin states to communicate information. but there is real life 'spooky action at a distance'
@jomgy yeah p much, except in the Bell experiments it's usually that knowing the spin state of one lets you instantly know the spin state of the other
@aquariusacquah i didnt but ofc gd blackrock stans the fed
@aquariusacquah fml
@rSanti97 wait when lol? you must be talking about the part where he makes a magical space blade, which happens in every fantasy series
@trekonomics ok ndt
tbh kind of cringe I spent so much time caring about the goddamn democratic primary
fuck that shit
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@Neil_Jetter true that’s the one redeeming factor
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you don’t need the mass media to manufacture anger and a feeling of impending doom
we do that to ourselves
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@NicholasElodeon that’s one tier list I’m glad to be low on
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Amazon and T*sla are the only living tech companies
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@neolibreplygirl cap and trade is better
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@neolibreplygirl instead of trusting some bureaucrat to figure out the elasticities of carbon reduction, just state the carbon goals and let the market figure out the rest
@neolibreplygirl plus we have far more real world examples of cap and trade to work with, from EU ETS to California to China
@neolibreplygirl we have no idea what the marginal social cost of carbon is, we’re just guessing at amounts that’ll incent reductions. The IPCC gives ranges Of social cost that cross several orders of magnitude. It’s the same thing with added steps.
@GreySmithereens Reinvestment in novel technology
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@andrej_haulis don’t think so
@QiaochuYuan delet this
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@NKel26 Hitchens >>>
@NKel26 w r o n g although on principle I respect Dawkins, a scientist, more than Hitchens, a journalist
@neolibreplygirl we have a temperature target, which is different than a social cost target
@neolibreplygirl yes but that’s what makes it a good goal :)
we can evaluate whether we meet it or not and reassess
the human body has two entire kidneys when it only needs part of one to function, whereas neiman marcus doesn't have enough rainy day fund to survive one down quarter
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@NKel26 literally who
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this is globalism
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@NicholasElodeon tfw succdem Sweden is famous for its charter schools ... hard cope
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Fs in the chat for Bitch
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it will always be unprofitable to asteroid mine under the liquid propulsion rocket paradigm, even if there’s pre-prepared satchels of return fuel sitting on the asteroid https://x.com/BrianRoemmele/status/1258438272327405568
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I peaked with this and it’s all been downhill
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@TetraTerezi @NYCNavid its a one sided article from a recent divorceé I wouldn't expect it to be fair
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@browserdotsys what’s your specialization?
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@browserdotsys Me and the rest of the CIA are bitterly disappointed:(
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@browserdotsys we have some corvid hunting drones to sell you
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@oldvillagesage @browserdotsys detecting animals in photos was phd level work just 10 years ago, now undergrads can do it in their spare time
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@browserdotsys @oldvillagesage i hate to say it but there really is one of these for everything
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@WillCJohns0n yeah hq trivia
@wannabegroncho yeah i'm talking about the delta V required to bring it back to earth. if you want to build stuff on the asteroid, go ahead.
@wannabegroncho getting back to earth orbit and getting down to earth are probably about the same cost due to the possibility of aerobraking
@wannabegroncho this guy did the math
https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/comments/8ys2yl/analyzing_the_economics_of_asteroid_mining/
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my internet literally goes down once a day. I am living in a third world country
@Hellachans yep
@aquariusacquah my guy lives in sf proper which is true 3rd world
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@AOCummies nice cope loser
FREE MY MAN KWAME KILPATRICK
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HE DID NOTHING WRONG
@PereGrimmer fundamental physics
@eigenrobot THEYRE PRICED IN
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@nectarina12 Holding anything sacred in life basically entails brainwashing yourself, so it’s unavoidable
@neolibreplygirl I think the imputed value of subsistence farms is the *only* thing contributing to that number as it’s doubtful smallholders have wages outside of that
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@browserdotsys I have a tendency to name all of my projects Maxwell’s Demon
@man_ditch wtf I love new_liberal_offshoot
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@colinmort they’re all partisans
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but why some say the moon? why choose this as our goal?
and they may well ask, why climb the highest mountain?
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look on ye works and despair neolibs, your chief shill watches this mediocre netflix garbage https://x.com/scottlincicome/status/1258905311815090176
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@neolibureaucrat i believe the era that our government could achieve monumental technological feats is long past and will continue to be long past unless something extaordinary happens
philosophy is only tolerable when it’s thinly veiled as a fictional narrative
@OldDreyfusard yep
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@NKel26 can’t get through it
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@powerbottomdad1 im in a Detroit suburb rn and goes out all the time. fucking WOW monopoly
@neolibureaucrat the private sector seems to be doing better than the other two tho ... Elon boutta bring back manned orbital space flight to America in a month
@BigBreakfastLob I love-hate kierkegaard
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@shohinigupta tri solar dayyyy
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@shohinigupta i thought it was very good speculative fiction ... worldbuilding, game theory of civilization, etc. the characters are not necessarily great
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why elon is on joe Rogan saying the brain does backprop smh
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@jachaseyoung pretty confident about this one actually
brain implants are a common medical technology these days, including deep brain stimulation for epileptics and such. Obv the super cool transhuman stuff is far off
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@jachaseyoung oh yeah the stuff about augmenting human intelligence / connecting to internet is ridiculous considering how little we understand about it in the first place
but I think that replacing missing limbs and bringing back sight to the blind and such are within reason
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@jachaseyoung like I think we could have robotic replacement limbs with full motor control by 2030 thru rewiring of motor neurons and a bit of machine learning
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kind of sus that humans share so much cognitive infrastructure ... why are we all seeing the same sleep paralysis demon ... seems like a security risk if you ask me ...
where is the adversarial input that collapses all human minds at once
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@aquariusacquah he just seemed characteristically uncomfortable talking about his personal life so he pulled out some hamfisted metaphor to neural nets
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@browserdotsys reminds me of the "memetic kill agents" they often place in SCP articles if youve seen em
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@jdcmedlock patents are not a good metric for innovation at all imo. they're a good analogue for number of lawsuits and legal cuckery
@jdcmedlock rather than measuring the innovation inputs, like number of phds or patents, it's best to measure the outputs, i.e. labor productivity growth. and even that's imperfect as you can only compare countries in similar life stages
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this idea is kind of lovecraftian ... old HP knew that there were secrets of the universe that would drive men to madness
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@ne0agent1c the rare succubus pops in sometimes, yeah
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@marathiMaharaja it’s all fucked anyway lol forget social distancing. best thing to do imo is just wear a mask and otherwise continue as usual
@Imperial_Eagle2 blackpilled
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by 2016, the right was blackpilled
by 2020, everyone is blackpilled
it’s time for the blackpill consensus https://x.com/realjdburn/status/1259276862041120770
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@jdcmedlock yeah I couldn’t find the per hour graph
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@jomgy isn't tests per case an unknowable quantity?
@mattparlmer interesting choice to concentrate all tail risk in the failure of the tail risk think tank
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@AOCummies now is the time to pivot to seriousposting. I’m expecting a 50 tweet thread on geopolitics by tomorrow morning
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@nectarina12 based
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@mattparlmer the other thing is, i'm not sure that global pandemic is really a tail risk. it's something that we were absolutely sure is going to happen, but failed to prepare for anyway
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@KristenRadtke i blame chernobyl by default
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@jachaseyoung @AOCummies i would be appalled
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@neolibreplygirl fiction: sf anthology about mind uploading
nf: idk something about growing up on the internet
@AOCummies we don’t have notifications on dawg. we just scroll through 10 miles of newsfeed a day
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@AOCummies nvm read this wrong
@NeoLibBen $AMZN, $TSLA, and maybe $W
@NeoLibBen ya boi did :)
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@eigenrobot jenkem
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@ne0liberal this is literally the crate episode of Veep
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@WilliamGrobman yeah I’m an ml guy
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@similaralterity @LAForeverHall what does a “thoughtful” free trade look like?
@similaralterity @LAForeverHall also, your argument assumes that interstate arbitrage is bad. seems to me it’s an excellent force for development in the 3rd world. Undecided whether the rich country gets shafted in the bargain
@similaralterity @LAForeverHall i.e. why is interstate arbitrage bad?
@nectarina12 need content ... where’s the content ...
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@eigenrobot this is the only alternative to the inevitable $50 haircuts on day 1 of reopening
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@NicholasElodeon just keep moving your bedtime back by 1 hour a day ez pz
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CNNs have the same problem ... our brains really do be extracting features https://x.com/BrianRoemmele/status/1259533177476927488
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@ne0agent1c idk depends on the radicals ... if you’ve ever found the hardcore tankie commies they’re not exactly nice
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2020 is feeling like the First Contact year to me
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would pay a fortune to watch Trump do the first contact speech
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@browserdotsys Instantiation hitting all the right numbers
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@billpshort wasn’t true in 2002/3 though
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@sonyasupposedly the elegant but bad abstractions call like siren song
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@jachaseyoung that’s what our species deserves
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@AOCummies stay strong and enjoy those trump bux king
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@Mawpy blu
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@owenrumney @golikehellmachi to my eye the mad visual chaos of Asian cities is pretty impressive
w*men can talk shit when they stop playing animal crossing https://x.com/nocontextfm1/status/1259473862250692612
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this game literally makes you farm crops and sell them
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@AOCummies beerio kart makes both Mario kart and drinking unenjoyable somehow
@potatoman245 lob ... ass ...
@eigenrobot pre existing state capacity
but this might be tautological. The British were able to rule colonial India so effectively bc of the prior governance architecture that was left over. Alexander taking over old satrapies etc
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Anthony Weiner was the only thing keeping journalism alive for the last decade
@nectarina12 entire industries revolving around white guilt
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@WilliamGrobman yeah agree ... “emotional labor” has gone too far
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@AOCummies this will come as news to pretty much everyone I know, who all smoke in moderation
@AOCummies ppl say shit like this full well knowing they’ve never tried it
people who are smart in their field are often able to perceive deeply into every field. this is just more credentialist “trust science” bs https://x.com/CNLiberalism/status/1259528224218001411
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