@tszzl — page 11/103

2020-03-05 → 2020-03-16 · posts 5001–5500 of 51,350
· ↳ reply to @tszzl
@NicholasElodeon what we’ve learned in 2020 is that caucus results are not at all representative of the equivalent primary results
· ↳ reply to @mordroberon
@mordroberon Doesn’t jibe with California politics, which is largely tax and spend liberals
1 ♥ · x.com →
· ↳ reply to @imillhiser
@imillhiser The real reason: you’re probably both normies and it’s a normie book that’s commonly bought by people with your purchasing patterns
1 ♥ · x.com →
In electoral politics on the scale of the US, you have to tap into populist lowest common denominators to turn out voters. There are three kinds: xenophobia, class warfare, and “grown up in the room” west wing appeal. Technocrats really only have a shot with #3
13 ♥ · x.com →
· ↳ reply to @aquariusacquah
@aquariusacquah the Ben Shapiro readers all went and voted trump so I’m not sure it really works. In general the “facts and logic” aesthetic isn’t strong enough
1 ♥ · x.com →
@AOCummies this is the formula for the Limitless pill
3 ♥ · x.com →
· ↳ reply to @tszzl
(it’s because he’s too online)
11 ♥ · x.com →
Never forget the core purpose of Twitter: to cyberbully journalists until they delete their account
24 ♥ · 1 RT · x.com →
· ↳ reply to @tszzl
when the Last Journo, teary-eyed and miserable, deactivates their account, we all wait the requisite month to make sure it’s permanent. Then, smiling, our purpose fulfilled, we log off.
4 ♥ · x.com →
· ↳ reply to @tszzl
Warren tried very hard to utilize #3 (“I’ve got a plan!!”) but petered out for unknown reasons ...
2 ♥ · x.com →
· ↳ reply to @billpulec
@billpulec I think it is bc it doesn’t quite matter if they *are* a grown up so long as they seem like one
· ↳ reply to @jdcmedlock
@jdcmedlock This sounds like accelerationism lol ... “inequality is good because it drives people to the left!”
1 ♥ · 1 RT · x.com →
this is why we need Bernie Sanders
3 ♥ · x.com →
@CJSprigman @politicalmath When a candidate drops out of a race, it causes a step change in probabilities that’s not easy to make smooth and continuous. You might argue that ol Natey should start predicting drop outs, which is wildly tough
1 ♥ · x.com →
· ↳ reply to @tszzl
@CJSprigman @politicalmath I still do think it’s useful; based on the current results, we see that Biden is a few delegates up. It certainly doesn’t look like an insurmountable lead, but the 538 model thinks so; it’s a much smarter metric of who’s ahead than delegate count
1 ♥ · x.com →
· ↳ reply to @sumdepony
@sumdepony @Noahpinion Every side of a political debate thinks the other’s actions are wreaking terrible havoc on the world and causing more moral harm than they would be themselves. So where do you get off saying “people are dying, stop being flippant”? chill tf out
17 ♥ · x.com →
· ↳ reply to @sumdepony
@sumdepony @Noahpinion So in your view, there are no difficult political questions are there? Just good and evil, right and wrong, powerful and powerless? We don’t even have enough common ground to have a discussion if that’s the case
10 ♥ · x.com →
· ↳ reply to @agraybee
@agraybee 99.9% of people who actually voted for Bernie in a primary will more than happily come home to Biden. I think the outspoken lunatics on this site mostly don’t vote
4 ♥ · x.com →
· ↳ reply to @tszzl
@agraybee Even the reported 10-20% of Bernie voters in 2016 who didn’t vote Hillary were probably anti Hillary diehards and not ideologues of any kind
1 ♥ · x.com →
@ironically_edgy Mitt Romney was literally the architect of ObamaCare and also pro-choice,,,, delete this cringe
6 ♥ · x.com →
@AOCummies Find a corona quarantine ward and infect yourself
who is this and why have they blocked me
1 ♥ · x.com →
· ↳ reply to @jdcmedlock
@jdcmedlock many an environmentalist’s concerns are essentially quasi religious rather than self preservationary. something something original sin
8 ♥ · x.com →
· ↳ reply to @tszzl
@jdcmedlock lot of people I’ve spoken to find the idea of pairing fossil fuels with equivalent carbon capture disturbing
5 ♥ · x.com →
· ↳ reply to @Sharon_Kuruvila
@Sharon_Kuruvila @jdcmedlock there is no future in which we reach carbon neutral by 2050 without gigaton scale carbon sequestration but it feels "wrong" to a lot of people, usually libs. like we haven't atoned for our polluting sins or something
6 ♥ · x.com →
there is definitely a Platonically *correct* level of interest in politics, and I passed it long ago
23 ♥ · 2 RT · x.com →
America👏Must👏Join👏The👏EU👏Cap&Trade👏Market
6 ♥ · x.com →
@AOCummies I am Becoming a globe twitter Mujahideen fighter.
3 ♥ · x.com →
· ↳ reply to @nmeier21
@NickMeier21 I know you worked for him. I’m just saying this move is obvious and prudent from garlin. I met him once too, when he was still working for Detroit
· ↳ reply to @yhdistyminen
@koaleszenz his obvious intelligence and managerial competence. he was not a good orator but he was good at play acting as a good orator, which may be enough.
1 ♥ · x.com →
· ↳ reply to @yhdistyminen
@koaleszenz @JohnCarltonKing I think the obsession with age and experience and “waiting your turn” in politics is very silly. In the private sector, 20 year olds manage multinational empires. age =/= competence
1 ♥ · x.com →
shoutout to all my irl friends who still follow me lmao. Y’all braver than the troops
22 ♥ · x.com →
· ↳ reply to @Tyler_The_Wise
@Tyler_The_Wise In the primary, there are maybe an array of similar candidates to select from. You tactically choose which one to support. In the general, you’re likely to strongly prefer one candidate to the other. You’ll turnout to vote based on how much you think your vote is needed
· ↳ reply to @eigenrobot
@eigenrobot strangely enough the best response comedically speaking is also "how did you find out"
35 ♥ · x.com →
the EU emissions trading system is the most mature response to climate change of any region in the world and leaves me impressed with Europe’s state capacity
10 ♥ · x.com →
hmmmmmm
56 ♥ · 3 RT · x.com →
· ↳ reply to @bernybelvedere
@bernybelvedere It’s absolutely concordant. You’ll see why when we have M4A and a new government drastically cuts coverage
· ↳ reply to @tszzl
@Noahpinion The Econ 101 explanation to this would be to offer subsidies instead of price controls; you haven’t made some excellent counterintuitive point about markets in pandemic scenarios
7 ♥ · x.com →
I will never block people with slight ideological differences from me, because my only true belief is in engagement metrics
54 ♥ · 2 RT · x.com →
@ironically_edgy People enjoy this liberal self flagellation. This will only increase ur metrics
4 ♥ · x.com →
@AOCummies Ok I’m not seeing the gallons of vodka
1 ♥ · x.com →
any honorable person who spends time publicly predicting the future should be putting their money where their mouth is
11 ♥ · 1 RT · x.com →
a lot of pundits are going to spend tomorrow talking about how they knew this downturn would happen and how this is obvious based on their political views, but will not see $1 of upside since they haven’t put their money where their mouth is
6 ♥ · 1 RT · x.com →
I will never forget this absolute legend of a newspaper front page
88 ♥ · 5 RT · x.com →
Anthony Wiener’s dick pics elected Donald Trump
6 ♥ · x.com →
@DaanVanDenHam2 I don’t know anything about his background but he spends too much of his time simping communist chicks for me to take him seriously
3 ♥ · x.com →
· ↳ reply to @tszzl
@DaanVanDenHam2 The bar for being a “public intellectual” on twitter is low. Say “climate change is real” a few times, debunk some deepak chopra esque quantum woo nonsense that any idiot could see through, and you’re in
2 ♥ · x.com →
· ↳ reply to @tszzl
@OldDreyfusard soon he will converge into an average New York comedy writer
11 ♥ · x.com →
· ↳ reply to @tszzl
@OldDreyfusard he wrote a joke about joe Biden and then added a single typographic error as an after thought
6 ♥ · x.com →
· ↳ reply to @jtlevy
@jtlevy I think a “once in a century pandemic” can safely classify as black swan.
2 ♥ · x.com →
@DaanVanDenHam2 Most of this seems legit to me dude ... I don’t think he’s making up his qualifications
@DaanVanDenHam2 I admit this is an improbable number of classes to have taught, but not unheard of for someone who’s been in academia for a while. Usually people find a class they like and teach it for a few semesters straight. but the level of control he’s implying he has over the curricula ...
· ↳ reply to @ruscarred
@strang3lo0P @litgenstein @InertialObservr I don’t actually speak Hindi. My bio says aakasha ganga because I understand the Sanskrit root and thought it was a beautiful translation of “Milky Way”. Many languages render the name for our galaxy as “sky river”
2 ♥ · x.com →
@Cullen_OK we mus extrapolate this conclusion to the nth degree
· ↳ reply to @webdevMason
@webdevMason essentially every tech journalist is a prep school socialist A hole who’s never created an ounce of value in their life. the sooner peter thiel starts his own media company the better
14 ♥ · x.com →
· ↳ reply to @tszzl
@webdevMason they’re all notoriously thin skinned af too. Taylor Lorenz blocked me for simply pointing out that there are indeed some very powerful women in tech
1 ♥ · x.com →
MSNBC rn trying to triangulate if Trump has corona
18 ♥ · x.com →
· ↳ reply to @jdcmedlock
@jdcmedlock all the billionaires I respect literally do believe in the dignity of work and are giving their wealth away so their kids can make their own lives
2 ♥ · x.com →
· ↳ reply to @tszzl
@Human9b6c432f i remember a podcast from 2010 where marc levinson (author of "The Box") was even then talking about how sino-american trade volume was not rising at previous levels due to the hedging of political risks
1 ♥ · x.com →
Nate Silver is adamant in gaslighting the prediction markets, but never forget that he was loling in summer 2019 that the markets were valuing Pete, Warren, and Yang highly, all of whom outlasted his favored picks (Harris and Booker)
12 ♥ · 1 RT · x.com →
we've had ASI for a long time. a stock market is a hive superintelligence: the aggregated mental contributions of a billion humans' processing power to calculate the share prices. even now, we struggle to tame the gods in an effort to have them serve humanity
8 ♥ · 1 RT · x.com →
· ↳ reply to @tszzl
*ASI = artificial superintelligence
1 ♥ · x.com →
· ↳ reply to @tszzl
the single biggest blow to the social democratic project is that elections are not as good at aggregating human computation as markets are. making elections as smart as markets is a problem every socdem should be working on
5 ♥ · x.com →
· ↳ reply to @HenryPorters
@HenryPorters explain why? haven't i just expressed the view that intelligent social collaboration is the most important variable for success?
what always shocks me about teachers unions lobbying against school choice is that teachers would be the clear beneficiaries of voucher based charter programs. i suppose they have a competitive advantage against non union teachers? https://x.com/DeAngelisCorey/status/1236468546470895618
4 ♥ · x.com →
· ↳ reply to @maximlott
@maximlott gotta put old Natey in his place after all his prediction market snark
· ↳ reply to @tszzl
@HenryPorters another example. i think that parliamentary democracies function better than ours: they have higher voter turnout, better coalition mechanics, and seem (imho) to come to smarter conclusions. this is a problem of institutional intelligence and not individual IQ.
· ↳ reply to @tszzl
@HenryPorters i am speaking to the power of markets to *aggregate* intelligence and enhance collaboration, not being an IQ cultist
· ↳ reply to @archiveOfAwe
@_vivalapanda i have serious doubts about his models as well tbh. i think it number-washes nate's punditry. but I still love that shit
· ↳ reply to @archiveOfAwe
@_vivalapanda the predictit price for trump was around the same on election morning as Nate’s model. Roughly 70%. But you’re right, I’ve made money using some of his predictions as well
· ↳ reply to @archiveOfAwe
@_vivalapanda i'm gonna try and do a numerical analysis on whether the betting markets have beat nate over past few few cycles. will get back to you on this
1 ♥ · x.com →
· ↳ reply to @MarcDavidLoeb
@MarcDavidLoeb @Tyler_The_Wise @DukakisDude if we get a carbon trading system I will be ecstatic and is basically all I’m hoping for from government at this point. The bare minimum they need to do to keep the US on track. I’d like to see UCC or Obamacare expansion but who knows with this senate
2 ♥ · 1 RT · x.com →
· ↳ reply to @jdcmedlock
@jdcmedlock but consider that a crisis may actually grant less political capital than you may have thought
2 ♥ · x.com →
"Will Trump Get COVID-19?" - the greatest market in the history of PredictIt, locked by Rainbow Jeremy after 12,239 pages of heated debate,
26 ♥ · 2 RT · x.com →
· ↳ reply to @PredictIt
@PredictIt @KelseyTuoc The Supreme Court is looking real friendly to online gambling, guys. Please remove the market ceilings and change the fee structure
Any socdem who likes cap and trade is my friend and ally
12 ♥ · x.com →
@browserdotsys idk i feel like this might be a “we found the boston bombers!!!” moment
· ↳ reply to @tszzl
@browserdotsys cursory googling brought up a photo of a high energy physics cohort at oxford that has a guy who kinda sorta looks like his pfp ... but still this is an insane number of classes for a grad instructor to teach
@GoodOldBacHo @DaanVanDenHam2 I really don’t want to believe that people on this site LARP their academic credentials, bc that’s just sad. Seems to be true though
1 ♥ · x.com →
· ↳ reply to @THOTCrime
@THOTCrime why do you say it’s better? both have benefits and drawbacks but emissions trading imo is better — you can have strict control over emissions allowances rather than playing around with the carbon price until you’ve got the elasticities figured out.
3 ♥ · x.com →
· ↳ reply to @tszzl
@THOTCrime Europe right now uses cap and trade, and so does california. And I agree, I wish Reagan had gone one step further
2 ♥ · x.com →
· ↳ reply to @THOTCrime
@THOTCrime cap and trade is equivalent in revenue collection as you can auction off the emissions credits to the highest bidders. No DWL and you can refund it as dividend.
· ↳ reply to @THOTCrime
@THOTCrime actually all emissions are taxed (since a company must buy a permit to emit carbon), and excess is *not allowed*. In reality, not allowed probably means taxed at a much higher rate.
· ↳ reply to @tszzl
@THOTCrime It’s a matter of using price vs quantity to come to the exact same effect. The benefit of emissions trading is that you can link up multiple cap and trade markets (US, EU) and start scouring the globe for the cheapest emissions to reduce
@DaanVanDenHam2 @GoodOldBacHo The weird thing about this is that twitter is a democratizing place ... it wants you to perform, regardless of your credentials. Doesn’t matter if you’re from Oxford or UCF, you just have to make Good Tweets. So why all the blatant lying? What’s his insecurity?
3 ♥ · x.com →
· ↳ reply to @TheSneerReview
@TheSneerReview but can you name a single time trump has been diplomatic to someone outside his camp? I agree with what you’re saying in principle but I don’t think it matters in practice
3 ♥ · x.com →
Screenshot this. If Biden wins Michigan by double digits, he’ll win the general
16 ♥ · x.com →
· ↳ reply to @colinmort
@colinmort You aren’t running for president, a position that’s essentially about full time oration
4 ♥ · x.com →
· ↳ reply to @colinmort
@colinmort I’m not saying he has dementia; he clearly doesn’t. My point is that I’d like my presidential candidate to have a preternatural poise and grace to their speech, like Obama did. Short of that, I’ll gladly take Biden
1 ♥ · x.com →
Call me naive but I think the 2016 vs 2020 deltas have less to do with misogyny and more to do with the cumulative effect of years of GOP conspiracy theories about the Clinton’s
29 ♥ · x.com →
@UWEair We should also be able to win lawsuits by selecting a champion to defend us in single combat
2 ♥ · x.com →
· ↳ reply to @tszzl
And neither of these explanations support the inevitability of the left: Bernie lost ground everywhere after campaigning for 5 years straight.
5 ♥ · x.com →
· ↳ reply to @twinkhoncreole
@Robyn9124 Yeah there’s a delta between Bill and Hillary’s approval ratings that’s hard to explain
5 ♥ · x.com →
· ↳ reply to @Noahpinion
@Noahpinion @trekonomics there are explanations that link this lab without going so far as to claim bio weapons. for example, poor containment procedures
1 ♥ · x.com →
if joe biden doesn't thank Corn Pop in his inauguration speech i will cancel him
28 ♥ · x.com →
· ↳ reply to @aquariusacquah
@aquariusacquah i am just seething because he gets paid like a 100 grand to give talks at google and has the absolute gall to complain about people like hillary
1 ♥ · x.com →
u bitches aren’t ready for when Obama starts campaigning full time like he’s running for president again
12 ♥ · x.com →
When and if humans settle Mars, men will pay to go, but we’ll have to pay women to go
9 ♥ · x.com →
.@JordanUhl literally ended up being dumber than the guy who drank his own piss
59 ♥ · 9 RT · x.com →
@litgenstein @electroweak he literally went on Joe Rogan and admitted to believing in quantum consciousness and panpsychism or whatever, and Joe Rogan had to tell him “uh that sounds like nonsense”. Absolutely surreal
2 ♥ · x.com →
· ↳ reply to @GShippey45
@GShippey45 @electroweak @litgenstein He seemed to invoke some quantum mysticism in saying that consciousness can’t be achieved without some sort of quantum interaction. He specifically claimed computers could never “think” like humans because of this. Terrible reasoning all around
3 ♥ · x.com →
· ↳ reply to @eigenrobot
@eigenrobot Hundreds of friends isn't cool, you know what's cool? Thousands of friends.
5 ♥ · x.com →
who tf is this show for
6 ♥ · x.com →
· ↳ reply to @homsiT
@homsiT @made_in_cosmos Human researchers are capable of ad hoc engineering superbugs that nature alone would never have been unlikely to generate
6 ♥ · x.com →
@guacamolebio @Noahpinion it's just a short speculatory paper but it says the second lab was directly involved with recombining SARS-cov to make it more dangerous. and they did indeed experiment with HIV chimeras
2 ♥ · x.com →
· ↳ reply to @tszzl
@guacamolebio @Noahpinion but yes the slightly less ambitious version of the conspiracy theory is that the lab spread a bat-isolated coronavirus to humans via improper care
2 ♥ · x.com →
shit why did @JordanUhl delete. i wanted the clout boost
29 ♥ · x.com →
· ↳ reply to @tszzl
i'm getting all excited knowing that jordan uhl scrolled down my TL after i insulted him so he could find something to dunk on
8 ♥ · x.com →
@GoatzR4Me yes i did. making jordan 10% madder means i have won a thousand victories
Still don’t get why the markets TURN OFF AT NIGHT like a badly designed government website. Oh the poor traders need to spend time with their family and sleep? Nonsense. There are no human traders anymore. The machines don’t sleep
40 ♥ · x.com →
· ↳ reply to @jdcmedlock
@jdcmedlock The policies he endorses are left by Nordic standards, but his aesthetic is far left by those same standards
11 ♥ · x.com →
@neolibureaucrat yeah I don’t understand how the S&P futures markets don’t even go 24 hours
@AOCummies The only question now is: will the human race go extinct?
1 ♥ · x.com →
Behold the unveiling of my brand new line of financial products, the Toilet Paper Backed Securities
49 ♥ · 7 RT · x.com →
· ↳ reply to @tszzl
We regret to inform you we are having a liquidity crisis 💩
14 ♥ · x.com →
Oh, you have a consistent ideology? That’s pretty cringe bro
24 ♥ · 1 RT · x.com →
· ↳ reply to @auderdy
@auderdy When you “up dopamine” what you get is a seizure
1 ♥ · x.com →
· ↳ reply to @PalmerLuckey
@PalmerLuckey Yeah, you’re right. What I meant was they’re checking twitter and sensing the winds. The Press are kind of obsolete middleware now
1 ♥ · x.com →
· ↳ reply to @dril_gpt2
@dril_gpt2 Man you should know you’re probably more critical of your bot than anyone else at this point. I thought it was better than ever
24 ♥ · x.com →
The greatest thing capitalism ever did was tame the socialists into creating patreons and meekly asking each other for income in ruthless content competition
21 ♥ · 1 RT · x.com →
· ↳ reply to @eigenrobot
@eigenrobot coronavirus is a chaos monkey. it forces institutions to delete years of rent seeking and get down the business of survival. Will make all systems more robust in the long run
3 ♥ · x.com →
Warren fucked up. To quote Machiavelli: “A ruler will be respected when he is a genuine friend and a genuine enemy, that is, when he declares himself unambiguously for one side and against the other. This policy will always bring better results than neutrality.”
11 ♥ · 2 RT · x.com →
· ↳ reply to @tomfgoodwin
@tomfgoodwin believe it or not, the financial pain is a great analog/metric for human pain. that's why it's covered so much
1 ♥ · x.com →
What is the decentralized response to this? Why do we have to rely on the executive?
13 ♥ · x.com →
· ↳ reply to @mattparlmer
@mattparlmer @Sharon_Kuruvila The HK strategy involves aggressive testing, which is bottlenecked in our country by an FDA that’s slow to approve. Executive failure. Don’t know if we can follow that route
1 ♥ · x.com →
@AOCummies they just wanna mate with ur cells and have babies :)
2 ♥ · x.com →
@Cullen_OK This is no better at all than “MAGA” rhetoric. Which objectively worse time period does Jeet want to return to?
13 ♥ · x.com →
· ↳ reply to @aquariusacquah
@aquariusacquah in terms of regulatory and stimulus competence, we’ve probably never had a better time. what about the whole 80s when the SEC wouldn’t even prosecute simple pump and dump schemes, and the bankruptcy of Rothschild?
2 ♥ · x.com →
· ↳ reply to @tszzl
@aquariusacquah People have been claiming that Finance is the root of all evil since Ancient Sumer, it’s nothing new
@Cullen_OK the longest wait times would’ve been in Detroit
2 ♥ · x.com →
· ↳ reply to @Sharon_Kuruvila
@Sharon_Kuruvila @Teleonomic the branding for this label is not great unfortunately. i'm also not liking tyler cowen's "state capacity libertarian" bc the phrase 'state capacity' gets used nonstop now. "libertarian" alone makes me think of Gary Johnson and age of consent laws. there's no winning!
Comparing any random political situation you’re born into to the Fall of Rome is a time honored tradition
28 ♥ · 1 RT · x.com →
I would be full time angry at tech journalists, but then I remember nobody reads that garbage anyway.
7 ♥ · x.com →
The Boomer Remover
4 ♥ · x.com →
· ↳ reply to @chheinzel
@chheinzel This guy is aggregating information from disparate sources in a trustworthy way for the last month on coronavirus. This is no Seth abramson grift
1 ♥ · x.com →
@NamithVorakkara I don’t think people understand how likely it is that our medical system will collapse
1 ♥ · x.com →
· ↳ reply to @agraybee
@agraybee What we have to do now is put Biden in a biohazard defense mesh
20 ♥ · x.com →
Price👏”gouging”👏is👏the👏proper👏functioning👏of👏markets
51 ♥ · 5 RT · x.com →
· ↳ reply to @kar_nels
@kar_nels In almost all cases where it’s been recently relevant, the production can indeed be ramped up. Nothing stopping P&G from repurposing a few of its lines to print way more hand sanitizer
2 ♥ · x.com →
· ↳ reply to @sonyasupposedly
@sonyasupposedly its so counterintuitive that it’s surprising that capitalism has survived at all for this long. It’s mainly due to the fact that capitalist societies outcompete and outlast others, leading to memetic selection
15 ♥ · x.com →
@browserdotsys at the end of the day people will scream at the companies that saved them for their bad customer experience or whatever
@BWithFreedom you can buy supplementary (or replacement) private insurance that won't let you reach those deductibles
· ↳ reply to @AStruckpersonn
@ATStruckmann yes, but you soon get overzealous regulators calling everything a monopoly. There’s only one store in x neighborhood selling bottled water! Monopoly!
2 ♥ · x.com →
@coherentstates @catcontentonly The Chinese silenced the doctors trying to report on nCov since December, bungled and delayed the containment of Wuhan until it was too late, and let slip a devastating plague into the world. It is possible to criticize the US without praising China
32 ♥ · 1 RT · x.com →
CCP psyop is so efficient that they don’t even need to pay these people to shill and cover for them https://t.co/l2TFQbnAeG
22 ♥ · 3 RT · x.com →
apparent CCP leak from Falun Gong media source. i've actively seen #4 and #5 happening on twitter
3 ♥ · x.com →
· ↳ reply to @zck
@zck @gregeganSF ‘s Axiomatic collection always gets me feeling some type of way. Perfect for self imposed quarantine
2 ♥ · x.com →
· ↳ reply to @atticusT
@atticusT @hemakhemak ok so the south korean health system is multi-payer with the majority of patients buying private insurance, with larger out of pocket costs than the US. I don't know where a mixed economy transitions to a command economy but I'll know it when I see it.
the horseshoe theory is real. people who are very politically engaged tend to be far left or far right.
35 ♥ · 1 RT · x.com →
· ↳ reply to @tszzl
this means that when you increase the *price* of voting, such as changing a primary to a caucus, the majority equilibrium will shift towards more extreme results. People who are vaguely engaged don't want to spend hours to vote. This is why Sanders dominates all caucuses.
10 ♥ · x.com →
· ↳ reply to @tszzl
it also means that for the most part, voter suppression will cause extreme candidates to do better (where suppression = increased price of voting in the form of long lines or tedious registration). This won't always hold if the suppression is targeted at certain groups
6 ♥ · x.com →
· ↳ reply to @tszzl
If young democrats as a *whole* are less politically engaged than other groups (willingness to pay is lower), it stands to reason that the ones who do vote will be much further left than the total group.
6 ♥ · x.com →
simpshaming is in fashion now ...
2 ♥ · x.com →
· ↳ reply to @discourseloverr
@discourseloverr bro ur right but the point here is the absolute failure of the US federal government, not Jack Ma’s benevolence
1 ♥ · x.com →
· ↳ reply to @Desis4Pete
@Desis4Pete Yeah this is my reasoning too. Most young people can’t be bothered to vote, for better or worse. But I suspect if they were all forced to vote, their patterns would not look similar to the pattern of the ones who voluntarily vote
2 ♥ · x.com →
· ↳ reply to @tszzl
@Pinboard let’s the corporations avoid the thorny question of Taiwanese statehood
6 ♥ · x.com →
· ↳ reply to @NeoLibBen
@NeoLibBen he did the right thing on oil and royally fucked up corona, it’s that simple. they’re different issues
· ↳ reply to @_Jason_Dean_
@_Jason_Dean_ pretty sure you’re joking but joe could spend the whole debate talking about corn pop and still win
13 ♥ · x.com →
· ↳ reply to @NeoLibBen
@NeoLibBen And what about the US, who’s private system will fail in 2 weeks as hospitals are overrun? What we are seeing is a failure of containment policy due to not taking the virus seriously enough in Italy. South Korea has done better due to their experience with SARS:
@neolibureaucrat there is an unmistakable horseshoe in the data, so it’s MY horseshoe theory :)
· ↳ reply to @ESYudkowsky
@ESYudkowsky Mine is the same. I looked at the asset prices and decided there would be no pandemic.
8 ♥ · x.com →
· ↳ reply to @ESYudkowsky
@ESYudkowsky @NPCollapse Is it this, or is it that the equity markets are a highly abstract bet about bailouts and money market conditions and angels dancing on the heads of pins etc.? i.e. I believe a large scale clearly stated prediction market would've gotten this correct
1 ♥ · x.com →
· ↳ reply to @BigBreakfastLob
@BigBreakfastLob @ESYudkowsky maybe but coronavirus is not a "black swan" event. Every pandemic researcher has basically been warning us about the "big one" coming. Someone like Bill Gates definitely knew what was coming; he could've sold everything and immediately triggered a market collapse.
3 ♥ · x.com →
· ↳ reply to @BigBreakfastLob
@BigBreakfastLob @mattparlmer @ESYudkowsky I just don't buy that. If a schmuck like me was hearing the warning signs about this in mid January, some sizeable fraction of pro traders surely knew. My priors are very strongly towards EMH. I just think the equity markets are not predicting what we think they are predicting
5 ♥ · x.com →
I'll see you folks at the bars tn
17 ♥ · 1 RT · x.com →
· ↳ reply to @tszzl
@ne0liberal @tedfrank the other explanation is that this is a Shinto-esque demon spirit unleashed by the children to kill the olds for global warming and other ills
8 ♥ · x.com →
twitter's ad targeting working really well hehe
19 ♥ · x.com →
· ↳ reply to @EmDotGoatEmoji
@CHADKRO3GER @ForecasterEnten i definitely have, at the impression making stage. first time i saw bernie in the debates i thought "this guy's a winner". now that i've seen all of these guys a number of times, a debate is very unlikely to change my view. most primary voters are likely to be feeling the same
1 ♥ · x.com →
Corona-chan’s coming for you :)
18 ♥ · x.com →
· ↳ reply to @tszzl
Accept her ghastly embrace :)
· ↳ reply to @thee_snek
@thee_snek I think the West just doesn’t have the societal scripts for containing pandemics, whereas the East Asians do
3 ♥ · x.com →
· ↳ reply to @NeoLibBen
@NeoLibBen So why do you say 2x when SK has clearly demonstrated 8x? China is also testing like mad and it’s something like 7x. WHO delegation confirmed the Chinese numbers. This number could easily jump to 50x if hospital capacity is saturated. The Wuhan CFR is 5-6%
2 ♥ · x.com →
· ↳ reply to @NeoLibBen
@NeoLibBen @THOTCrime They have been testing and listing asymptomatic cases via extensive contact tracing and monitoring. The statistics are all published online. I suspect .9% is the actual CFR
2 ♥ · x.com →
· ↳ reply to @tszzl
@NeoLibBen @THOTCrime The CFR in the US will be smaller in the US if will controlled due to younger median population. Italy is older than SK which is why they’re getting destroyed
· ↳ reply to @THOTCrime
@THOTCrime @NeoLibBen roughly 20% of cases need supplemental oxygen and 5-10% go into ARDS and need intubation. If we run out of respirators due to uncontrolled spread, the CFR will jump to 5-10%
1 ♥ · x.com →
· ↳ reply to @CathyYoung63
@CathyYoung63 @kbrunolieber it’s not an artificial shortage. It’s an actual increase in demand on a supply thats somewhat inelastic in the scale of days. Soon the consumer goods companies will produce way more of these products to match increased demand. A hoarder is no different than a supermarket
1 ♥ · x.com →
ok so the virus completely spares children and dogs, but is very lethal to the Olds, and you're telling me it's not a Shinto-esque demon spirit summoned by Greta Thunberg?
9 ♥ · x.com →
· ↳ reply to @barrydeutsch
@barrydeutsch @CathyYoung63 @kbrunolieber ok so let's say I buy everything available at a supermarket and resell it. unless I make it just as easy to distribute and purchase as the supermarket was making it, i will take a loss. most of these guys just go right around and sell the stuff on amazon.
· ↳ reply to @tszzl
@barrydeutsch @CathyYoung63 @kbrunolieber the only way for a hoarder to make money is if they buy everything before the price changes, in the same way someone trades oil futures or something. and by doing so they'll be sending price signals to manufacturers to increase production
· ↳ reply to @tszzl
@barrydeutsch @CathyYoung63 @kbrunolieber another example is in the case of some folks driving a long distance to supply much needed ice at a markup in a disaster zone. they were arrested for price gouging, even though all they did was move goods to where they needed to go.
everything i know about the vaccine development process comes from Contagion so does someone want to explain the reality to me
13 ♥ · x.com →
@AOCummies We are the simping under classes. All we can do is second hand simp
10 ♥ · x.com →
@Cullen_OK oof. while the SV contrarians were panicking early about corona, the galaxy brain Elon meta-contrarian is urging us to not panic
6 ♥ · x.com →
· ↳ reply to @OldDreyfusard
@OldDreyfusard @Cullen_OK it is impressive to have a truly rare belief. something that fewer than 1% of people familiar with the topic hold. everything else is iterated dialectics
1 ♥ · x.com →
· ↳ reply to @averykimball
@averykimball why do you say so? Seems to me we can define whatever utility function we want, so add some big constant for an individual human life.
2 ♥ · x.com →
· ↳ reply to @tszzl
@averykimball There are diehard capitalists who are utilitarians, and then total marxists who are also utilitarians. It is not a very restrictive frame
1 ♥ · x.com →
· ↳ reply to @averykimball
@averykimball imo the numbers matter. They keep you consistent. But you’re right. All the parameters and multipliers are up in the air. Utilitarianism doesn’t answer any of the interesting questions; but for those who have the answers, it serves as a powerful tool
1 ♥ · x.com →
· ↳ reply to @fitchett_adam
@fitchett_adam Panic is good! Panic gets you moving . Panic will save your ass. There’s a reason it’s built into us. We’re not logic engines
3 ♥ · x.com →
If someone had done the job properly, isolated all early cases through aggressive testing and quarantine, most people would have literally no idea what kind of calamity had been averted.
45 ♥ · 3 RT · x.com →
· ↳ reply to @tszzl
If TSA had been created 1 day before 9/11 it would’ve been ridiculed for defending against nonexistent threats.
14 ♥ · 1 RT · x.com →
· ↳ reply to @sonyasupposedly
@sonyasupposedly Some of these bored smart people are rich and can do the things they’re suggesting! Someone pitch the sponcon thing to Bill Gates ASAP. There is no time for fatalism!!
2 ♥ · x.com →
· ↳ reply to @realjdburn
@realjdburnett I don’t really see it ... If remdesivir actually works I’ll be quite thankful. Nearly nobody in America is directly exposed to drug prices. You hit your deductible as soon as you hit inpatient COVID mode and forget about the rest
1 ♥ · x.com →
Bernie is talking about working with China while their government sponsored botnets fill the internet with rumors that the American military created COVID-19. 🤮🤮🤮🤮 You're either a China hawk or you're unfit for office
11 ♥ · 1 RT · x.com →
· ↳ reply to @tszzl
@realjdburnett not to make light of the issue though ... the pharma companies are egregious patent trolls and rent seekers. The whole FDA + pharma patent system needs to torn down and rebuilt. they suck a lot of air out of the economy with the gigantic insurance premiums in the US
2 ♥ · x.com →
· ↳ reply to @tszzl
Bernie's now mistaking Ebola for Coronavirus. If Biden did this, it would take up 99% of the headlines tonight and tomorrow morning. Dementia Joe
15 ♥ · 3 RT · x.com →
Bernie is a Markov chain generator with a phrase bank of like 10 phrases
12 ♥ · 1 RT · x.com →