“Newton’s annus mirabilis came to him between 1665 and 1666, when Cambridge responded to the Bubonic plague by sending its students home to quarantine. In that time, Newton, aged 22, developed the theory of gravity along with the language of calculus required to express it.”
imo trump has no chance in 2024 because he's been thoroughly unpersoned by all the major social networks, which were his key source of strength. twitter was his main pulpit. if elon buys twitter and lets him back on i think that changes and the genie is out of the box
the absolute free speech position would be to let him back on. if trump wins ppl will blame elon whether its rational or not and his legacy will be fairly tarnished. he should absolutely buy twitter and let us bully journalists some more but draw the line somewhere
@_AlastairX_@eigenrobot i think basically the math here goes like republicans have some ~high chance of winning * trump is the best known republican rn but obviously this far out tons of new main characters on that side could emerge, impossible to say
@AdamNeumannsCoS On a principled level I agree. On another level i care more about elon, his operations, and his legacy more than I do about giving trump a second chance
@powerbottomdad1 i think the reach is maybe 1% when he sends something on his private mailer. it’s also just a more qualitative feeling that he’s not in the arena anymore he’s not doing battle. sending his cute little truthglobal emails like a cuck
@powerbottomdad1 also typically when an incumbent president loses reelection he becomes a political pariah so im not unjustified in saying he has no chance
all of the main characters of this age are able to master a zenlike state of carrying populist 'man of the people' clout despite being among the richest people on earth. very impressive
@LeporidaeHops@powerbottomdad1 why lol? they'll turn up the war evacuation surge pricing to 10x and i'll still make it out on board one of these mad max uber drivers
@LeporidaeHops@powerbottomdad1 this why people are always complaining about uber being so expensive in disaster situations. they ratchet up the prices to the market clearing price and then high risk tolerance mfs come save you from the tsunami or subway shooter or whatever. cyberpunk af
seems like there's a once a in a decade opportunity for the literal best operators in the world to take it off the hands of the worst operators (jack, costolo, assorted idiots) and finally tap the gold mine dry. potential serious consequences for the world
according to @antoniogm zuck would tell people often that twitter is like "a clown car that drove into a gold mine". it's well known in the valley as a sleepy dysfunctional place to go retire
@ctbeiser i think twitter is operating at 10% of the power it could be. i mean there are no brainer engineering improvements that can and should be made that won't change the product at all other than making it objectively better
@ctbeiser like why do my DMs drop all the time? why cant you make a group chat that gives you any control over whos in it? why are they running logistic regressions for feed ranking?
@nickcammarata@strangestloop dont get me wrong i think it's amazing and wonderful but i know a certain type of math guy who i can predict with 100% accuracy will hate it
absolute best grift in the game is populist finance posting. literally nobody understands it and the tickers are sexy. BRB convincing everyone that vanguard zombie fund 4 with ${big_number} AUM is interfering in the primary elections
@atroyn@nickcammarata@strangestloop btw I agree with you. It’s very postmodernist. but reality is postmodernist unfortunately. Einstein kinda ruined it and then Copenhagen guys really ruined it
@RogersBacon1@dwarkesh_sp@erikphoel@krishnanrohit@ctbeiser@DKThomp@slatestarcodex long boring unhinged screed sorry and it doesn’t even refute the main point
“the last annus mirabilis was 100 years ago” yeah Bc we’re quite laconic now when praising the greats. fuckin Torvalds wrote git and Linux kernel in the same year that’s an annus mirabilis
@jeff82874662 no like the machinery of nature. the earth moving in its orbit. the sun rising and setting like clockwork. the moon shadow moving with its inexorable logic during the solar eclipse
tech is the industry where connections matter the least and networkers are the most unimportant because of the high openness of its rich. “I know x y z” rarely matters anyone mildly talented will end up in front of a capital allocator before long
@paulg@GarettJones you can measure performance in finance perhaps even better than in tech but it doesn’t lead to the same high openness high risk hiring culture
@Hellachans it’s true but the pedigree required for big tech is like - “went to a state school, got As in a technical subject”. to me that’s a comparatively low bar
@parafactual@Jebriel@jachaseyoung why? he replies and QTs lowbies, he does spammy tweet storms that other big names might shy away from for fear of bothering a large high class audience. he's definitely a more down to earth 'poaster' than anyone else i can think of at that scale
@petergodofsky@alth0u@paulg@GarettJones i disagree - the culture of sv tech and the people it attracts are fundamentally high openness. this is why we see all the adjacent sex parties and extreme libertarianism and stuff like that. it's a bit different w stodgy 40 year old google/microsoft lifers or whatever
you guys have no understanding of how easy it is to get a 'warm intro' in tech vs other places. i talked to a fairly famous angel investor the other day who said he has met literally ~5000 people off of twitter for coffee https://x.com/JoshuaOgundu/status/1518306821278081026
@petergodofsky@alth0u@paulg@GarettJones the same practices are not true tho. for example goog will not hire new grads without first screening GPA and transcripts. facebook on the other hand could care less and i would argue is higher openness
there's plenty of people who are high agency but low talent (NFT / sneaker salesmen) or low agency but high talent (google employees) but the cross section 99% percentile of both is vanishingly small
@entirelyuseles wrong on all counts this guy has been in sf tech for a decade+ and told me holds court on the weekends and meets a lot of people consecutively
what i'm learning is that the proceeds from crypto fund an endless global party like something out of a science fiction novel. amsterdam one week, miami the next, and on, with the same recurring cast of characters
@can hmm did they really all congregate like this in another city every few weeks or so? seems doubtful without the advent of remote work and airbnb and shit. at least it must have been limited to the really fabulously wealthy
@tarunchitra inb4 "you can't move fast break things in hard tech" clearly nobody has read the story of Falcon 1 imploding mid air en route to Kwajalein and random interns saving the day by literally getting inside the chassis and releasing pressure
"you can't move fast break things in hard tech"
clearly nobody has read the story of Falcon 1 imploding mid air en route to Kwajalein launch site and random interns saving the day by literally climbing inside the chassis to release pressure and save the day
@can i'm not really sure what this sentence means but i'm gonna go out on a limb and say if we're talking about ppl flying the concorde btwn places we really are talking about the fabulously wealthy. the crypto circuit includes sort of average people so it's qualitatively different
the free speech compromises twitter and fb have made are a delicate balance between users, employees, governments, and ad buyers. this is what they’ve had to do to run them. i think “glorious leaders” can help on the margin but it’s not the same as an engineering megaproject
@0x49fa98 more competent leadership would look like facebook which pretty much bans all the same cast of characters anyway. their machine learning is a bit better in terms of false positive banning
@homsiT twitter will never replace Instagram imo, not in its current form, nor should it. twitter is the very last text based social media - everything else is images or video. scrooling through photos will always have higher TAM than text blurbs
@TheCaptain_Nemo i wouldn’t want to be a VC full time tbh I think it would be a depressing outcome. scout or dealflow is cool though and I’m already kind of doing it
so according to the terms of the LBO, every shareholder gets bought out except those among the top 2000 who decide to stay. how many shares would it take to reach top 2000?
probably not worth worrying about anon accounts getting rekt by proof of personhood. i mean it’s very clear that elon and grimes probably use several alts themselves
dude openly worships weakness and death. he’s like if a male brained internet schizo completed woke ideology to its finality. it’s like the repugnant conclusion for woke and he just bites the bullet. …based?
@amasad Yeah I mean I’m fundamentally a techno optimist so I hope you’re right and most things are technical problems
How would you approach it as an engineering issue?
@amasad There are pareto wins such as better language translation models allowing us to censor calls to violence in rare languages without taking the whole thing down
to be honest it seems silly not to. The elon meme stonk bonus is well known and will be absurd when it goes public again. this thing will be massively oversubscribed. I’m thinking of opening an equity crowdfund on Republic. LMK if better ideas
i mean it’s ok as a North Star but thus far everything elon has said publicly abt his free speech approach or proof of personhood has not been novel or interesting
i actually think elon has very little plan on how to solve social media issues, which is extremely based. @BroductManager’s dreams have come true and we’re witnessing technobarbarian Caesar mode. win massive populist appeal via battle performance / private market machinations
@PalmerLuckey and I’m glad the pendulum is swinging back - but can he permanently solve the problem w technology? or does the culture change again in 5 years
@peachblvd disclaimer is that i love normies and i might be one myself depending on who u ask
but there is something very special about nerd social and intellectual norms that need to be protected. like, an extreme & dangerous level of earnestness that becomes impossible if ur performing
@SecPerkinsStan@clifford_banes idk I thought the low end of that range actually seemed feasible but upon reading it seems to be (1) terrible analysis and (2) marketing
@SecPerkinsStan@clifford_banes I’m vaguely bullish on digital identity efforts. I think it could make welfare less not more expensive. Have no specific thoughts on http://ID.me
@deepfates@CausabonT@generativist well i think it's complicated. warm intros are cheap but you also need somebody to take you under their wing and take a risk on you. this tends to be easier at smaller institutions that are more startupey and risk seeking
@deepfates@CausabonT@generativist then there's a matter of the kind of job you probably want to do ("AI alignment") which is the sexy stuff that a lot of people want to do vs the kind of job thats easy to find "data engineer". I would say aim high and try to do exactly the thing you want to do
@deepfates@CausabonT@generativist but don't get discouraged if like the 3 institutions in the world that credibly work on AI alignment aren't interested
explore the concentric circles around that like mb "NLP engineer" at primer or something. and yeah via your twitter network you can get a warm intro most places
@deepfates@CausabonT@generativist if you wanna do MLE stuff then do some independent projects related to the subject matter to show in portfolio
if you wanna be a scientist then need to get someone senior to take you under your wing and help you out. i've also seen independent research work for like 1 guy
it’s kind of telling that people find Jack the most relatable of the tech founders and he’s also by far the worst. fired from his own company for being a lazy deadbeat, failed redemption arc, etc. all of its supposed censorship problems were created under his rein
it's been said before but competence seems to require or correlate w some level of inhumanity. being part machine and part object. i think maybe only patrick collison seems normal and well adjusted of the tech ceos (though i hear he's been kneecapping bitches)
@LennyNero2022@0x49fa98 ya i like elon a lot and i still got tired of this like 6 hours in. i mean free speech maybe but that man truly loves attention
@TaliaRinger burden of proof is on you to show that other systems exist because every single system that ppl have ever lived in seem to feature narcissists and sociopaths at the top
@aquariusacquah he's relatable in that he's human you know
dude gets rich and starts mostly partying with supermodels on remote islands. he does all the wacky hippie stuff that you see on the shows. jack probably has his own guru or whatever
@aquariusacquah elon otoh is pretty alien to me past the superficial level. i don't know what drives someone to live or work like that. the reddit stuff is like a thin facade over pure workaholic sociopathy. dude is 50 and sleeping in a shack at starbase
@aquariusacquah i certainly admire him for the creation of twitter and he definitely seems to be a product genius but it's clear to me he never had it in him to be one of those top tier trillion dollar CEOs
Evelyn is exactly Beth - under achiever on a cosmic scale. laundromat === horse surgeon
the dad is exactly jerry - sort of dorky loser that leads competent mom astray
jobu tupaki is the infinite godlike rick whose power drove him insane and into nihilism and the only philosophical response that evelyn or morty or anyone has is a kind of impassioned douglas adams absurdism that to me is not all that satisfying
@atroyn yes and you clearly don't remember the R&M episode where they see the world where jerry is a successful actor because he doesn't marry beth but he still runs over to find beth in that universe and says they should've gotten married to do boring shit together
imo multiverse fiction is a good approximation of the feeling of being on the internet. both represent absurd optionality and overwhelming novelty that may drive many people to nihilism
@eurydicelives it means that i might believe in a soft form of open individualism - if i inject an idea into your head you start running my software, we're sharing a mind?
@eurydicelives if people don't die civilization reaches stagnation imo
it requires the forming of new minds and granting them new resources to create progress
@alth0u debugging simple FPGA code is much harder than debugging massive distributed programs -- because you don't get much in the way of output bits to study
@NemoBane you didn’t see Evelyn gleefully say “nothing matters, there are no rules” towards the end? it’s fundamentally the same thing. “Be kind because nothing matters”
i like people who extrapolate their convictions to their logical ends and plan for success even if it seems ridiculous at the moment
for example sam altman seems to be working on solutions for personally distributing UBI after openai creates complete postscarcity
there's a massive difference between a company that creates technological progress vs one that merely seeks profit and i think it's most easily seen in uncaptured positive externalities
@gbrl_dick yes everything literally recursively self improves that's the whole MO of the technocapital machine
ai is technocapital coming alive and iterating without any human input at all
rare gabe L you haven't read your nick land
libertarian mfers in giant signal groups will be sitting at home watching police helicopter trackers and getting slightly aroused when one of them by chance flies over them
@PradyuPrasad Elons cultural impact is greater than his technical impact. I would wager people like SBF may not even be around were it not for PayPal and internet money and techno optimism
@Francis_Aln@yashevde the internet scaled several orders of magnitude in the last decade there was no opportunity for there to be an equivalent model before 2010 ish
a little company named facebook sets up some server racks in a remote village in Oregon and as a direct consequence materializes new children, mass movements, cults, modifies borders, starts and ends wars, elects presidents, reshapes the world
interval at 7pm. show up. theyre prolly gonna kick us all out if too many people come through and the long now foundation will take revenge against my descendants in 10,000 years but that's just how the cookie crumbles
the highest achievements of mankind today come from a culture of pretty much staunch materialists w rare exception - whether it’s rockets or AI or coastal media
there’s a lot of coping and postmodern word shuffling about this https://x.com/LostLandshark/status/1523485492192235520
@jeff82874662 the Brooklyn media circuit seems to me like a bunch of people that praise religion but are themselves mostly atheists
Hollywood is of course california concentrated
yes that’s my point! people that are mystics and materialists and everything in between are making giant leaps in arts and science and there’s no bell curve as far as I can tell https://x.com/michaelcurzi/status/1523794213531385857