@tszzl — page 6/103

2019-11-19 → 2019-12-14 · posts 2501–3000 of 51,350
· ↳ reply to @Aella_Girl
@Aella_Girl Kind of makes you realize how much of public opinion is just a performance though
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· ↳ reply to @MattKarrmann
@MattKarrmann @Aella_Girl Did one day everyone wake up and decide that being gay is ok? Or do we mime outrage and moral shock at things as a performance for others
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· ↳ reply to @Noahpinion
@Noahpinion the betting markets predicted 5 months ago the success of buttigieg and warren, before there was any inkling of that in the polls. In my view, they have more credibility than any pundit
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· ↳ reply to @vgr
@vgr I think you’re wrong on one thing: maintenance load on individuals has not gone up over time. Complexity of an individual’s life hasn’t either. Maintenance in most areas of life is actually easier now, so we just pick up more things to maintain in order to stay competitive
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· ↳ reply to @Noahpinion
@Noahpinion this is a pretty good visual metaphor despite what you folks are saying. the important thing is that the only dude in the photo is using the dirt trail -- the revealed preference of consumers and producers in a market superseding democratic / central-planning ideals.
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· ↳ reply to @tszzl
@Noahpinion wherever it's possible, every letter of the law will be flouted by organic chaos, creative destruction. you see it in the black markets in response to banned drugs, condo conversion due to to rent control, and the list goes on. not necessarily a + or a -, just a fact of life
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· ↳ reply to @micsolana
@micsolana unfortunately pretty clear by now that crises are just a tool you use to gain power. there's a market for climate outrage, and some folks have risen to supply it
· ↳ reply to @jdcmedlock
@jdcmedlock @Noahpinion Other opponents of the carbon tax think that allowing the markets to react organically to a carbon price is “wimpy” (aoc, sunrise movement) and would prefer a more authoritarian approach
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· ↳ reply to @tszzl
@AsVacation @Noahpinion The other problem is that these focused interventions may not be as efficient in $$/ton co2 offset as the carbon price would’ve been
· ↳ reply to @jdcmedlock
@jdcmedlock @Noahpinion I would not be opposed to something like a $100/ ton carbon tax brought on gradually over 10 years, even though this would massively distort prices. My usual aversion to big gov programs is not for size but the lack of regard for carefully constructed incentives schemes
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· ↳ reply to @AmanitaFugax
@gl0balism EVEN TRUER neolib take is that 30-50 chickens have to live and die a cruel life to produce the quantity of meat in one cow, ergo a utilitarian loss. All else equal, just remove corn subsidies and introduce carbon tax instead of beef taxes
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· ↳ reply to @jdcmedlock
@jdcmedlock @Noahpinion Only way I see it working is if there’s a big fat check mailed to everyone monthly that says “CARBON DIVIDEND” in bold because nobody will understand the sacrifices they’re making otherwise
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· ↳ reply to @tszzl
@jdcmedlock @Noahpinion As opposed to what California is doing (meekly adding a line item on everybody’s power bill)
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@CascadianSolo lol I have to admit I would be making fun of them if it was Bernie or warren fans
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Life just hasn’t been the same since Shkreli went to jail 😢
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@NeolibShill Ima be standing outside with a sign and a boom box playing Wu Tang on my homie’s release date
· ↳ reply to @tszzl
Everything has been a disappointment after I played that one game of Civ 5 with him
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· ↳ reply to @tszzl
@reesemcardlepgh next generation of private prisons will have income share agreements with it’s prisoners twitch subs
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· ↳ reply to @tszzl
@jdcmedlock @Noahpinion @dylanmatt @JWMason1 from my priors alone i'd imagine a person who is offered a $100k product for free would desire it more than someone offered a $0 product for free. is the process just incredibly long?
· ↳ reply to @jdcmedlock
@jdcmedlock I see. Aside from that, how do you introduce price discovery back into the university process? Free schooling means college ed will be extremely undersupplied, and the supply side subsidies being either too high or too low would both cause problems
· ↳ reply to @jdcmedlock
@jdcmedlock @Noahpinion @dylanmatt @JWMason1 Yeah I buy that. Whatever the social value is is still much higher than the sticker price for anyone that has the cash flow The psychology of free college is good, I admit, but I don’t think it’s the smartest approach. Did Germany try the zero cash flow pay later approach?
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· ↳ reply to @jdcmedlock
@jdcmedlock @Noahpinion @dylanmatt @JWMason1 UK’s approach is good in multiple ways, not least that it aligns the incentives of the college with that of the student and of public welfare: gainful employment. Some part of the predicted returns from increased tax streams should definitely go towards college subsidies
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· ↳ reply to @tszzl
@jdcmedlock @Noahpinion @dylanmatt @JWMason1 My view is that the American university system is pathological, and the extent of the decay isn’t just private schools. Costs have exploded for reasons Baumol can’t easily explain, and they’ll just move the graft onto the public budget if we don’t take care
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· ↳ reply to @tszzl
@jdcmedlock @Noahpinion @dylanmatt @JWMason1 Which is why I like approaches that hold colleges accountable. For example, the college should be the one that’s liable if a student doesn’t get a good enough job to pay back the debt. I’m bullish on this ISA stuff
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· ↳ reply to @jdcmedlock
@jdcmedlock @Noahpinion @dylanmatt @JWMason1 That much is undeniable. But is there evidence that there would be *more* college educated voters if state schools were free? Or just that there would be distributional shifts in who gets to go (which is also a worthy goal)
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· ↳ reply to @mattyglesias
@mattyglesias There’s exactly one good reason to make this comparison In the 2000s, all the largest companies were oil and gas In the 2010s, all the largest companies are tech
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· ↳ reply to @ahardtospell
@ahardtospell financialization is good, actually. As with anything else, people are afraid of PE and HFT because they don’t understand it
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O man how’d I piss off the VCs this bad
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· ↳ reply to @micsolana
@micsolana These people have literally no idea what legacy media or finance is like
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· ↳ reply to @nmeier21
@NickMeier21 Must’ve said something insufficiently capitalist in their replies 🙃
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cybertruck looks like actual ass
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· ↳ reply to @quantian1
@quantian1 My guy you’ve been unsuccessfully predicting Tesla doom for years and years now
· ↳ reply to @agraybee
@agraybee everyone not fucking in missionary deserves death for normalizing degeneracy clearly
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· ↳ reply to @tszzl
Markets gonna freak in a few hours
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· ↳ reply to @eigenrobot
@eigenrobot Isn’t the internet designed for exactly this thing to absolutely never happen
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Say what you will about Elon but you know a guy *that* poorly prepared for his demos can’t be selling snake oil
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· ↳ reply to @quantian1
@quantian1 Tobacco is a killer. Nicotine on its own is harmless. Anyone who works hard to keep vape from killing tobacco is culpable for the things you’re talking about
· ↳ reply to @Noahpinion
@Noahpinion Every 👏 bad 👏 twitter 👏 handle 👏 is a 👏 policy 👏 failure
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If Nate had actually put his money where his mouth is over the past few months, the markets would’ve absolutely roasted him. This is a guy who expressed skepticism in both Warren and Buttigieg (phenomenal performance by both) and a grand slam for Harris (abysmal perf) https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/1197910067489718273
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· ↳ reply to @tszzl
The markets understood all of this far before Nate did even under these shitty betting schemes that limit big money from playing
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I’ve been oppressed by the tech bros
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· ↳ reply to @bryancsk
@bryancsk Then I guess I prefer they go into the business of selling generics
· ↳ reply to @Ol_Wall
@Ol_Wall @SethMiller79 @quantian1 I don’t know, at least anecdotally this seems way off. 400 mg caffeine would have me up a wall, whereas a single cigarette is sub psychoactive
· ↳ reply to @Ol_Wall
@Ol_Wall @SethMiller79 @quantian1 Your study compares subjectively reported psychoactivity: “At doses that produced comparable ratings of drug effect (1.5 mg/70 kg of nicotine and 400 mg/70 kg of caffeine), both drugs produced similar increases in ratings of good effect, liking, high, stimulated, and bad effect.
There are like 1 million dudes on this website trying to hill climb their way to political pundit status
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when will Yang propose using nuclear winter to cancel global warming
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Biden gotta chill
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· ↳ reply to @jdcmedlock
@jdcmedlock the important question is what kind of false negative rate are you willing to accept though
I have absolutely no understanding of why insulin costs so much when the humalog and novolog patents expired early in the decade
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· ↳ reply to @twinkhoncreole
@Robyn9124 Even if there were, I don’t think people are rationing insulin because they’re purists abt buying the absolute latest variant
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@CascadianSolo Do you have a breakdown by gender? My hunch is that a lot more men are non religious than women
Every medical drama: what if,,, the doctor became a patient
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lower case tweets are high status
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@CascadianSolo I think this is somewhat true re: culture, but more important and simple is the fact that the US basically performs a brain drain of other countries by sucking up all the people most likely to perform well in high earning service sector jobs
· ↳ reply to @tszzl
@CascadianSolo an immigrant to the United States must already be set up for smashing success before they’re even let in, thereby leading to model minority myths
· ↳ reply to @jdcmedlock
@jdcmedlock @Maxtropolitan Mostly agree but “inefficient” is questionable here Capitalism / decentralization duplicate certain societal functions thousands of times, but in doing so allow incredible experimentation capacity and robustness to shocks
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· ↳ reply to @tszzl
@jdcmedlock @Maxtropolitan You can merge two giant media companies and destroy half the marketing staff but that doesn’t mean the outcome is a nimbler/ more vibrant company or economy
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· ↳ reply to @AsVacation
@AsVacation @jdcmedlock @Maxtropolitan I have literally never heard anyone responsible for an insurance company say anything. Without working in the industry it’s hard to tell what innovations / experimentations they may be running.
· ↳ reply to @AsVacation
@AsVacation @Maxtropolitan @jdcmedlock lol you’re going to be in for a shock when you realize a cost pool is a cost pool no matter who’s running it; your government will equally happily screw your for efficiency’s sake
· ↳ reply to @NullMagitech
@NullMagitech @jdcmedlock @Maxtropolitan When you make $100 in premiums, you only have $100 to pay for health coverage. You have to make ruthless decisions on who gets to live. This is true of an insurance company, or a government panel. The only difference is that the government doesn’t take $3 as profit
· ↳ reply to @tszzl
@NullMagitech @jdcmedlock @Maxtropolitan But they’ll waste far more than $3 through sheer inefficiency. When you talk about companies or governments through the lens of whether they’re evil or good, the conclusions will be ridiculous. Here’s the only calculus of m4a: a single buyer can demand monopsony prices
@pervognsen @AsVacation @Maxtropolitan @jdcmedlock You’re categorically wrong. An insurance company has people under its policy that can afford to pay for it; even among these (relatively) rich people, choices have to be made of who gets to live and die. You’re posing a mechanical problem as a moral one
· ↳ reply to @jdcmedlock
@jdcmedlock @Maxtropolitan sure, but my original point is just that if you think reducing the complexity of health insurance by centralizing is a positive efficiency gain, you have to say the same thing about a gross merger like Comcast+Time Warner or something. gov't owned monopolies are still monopolies
· ↳ reply to @tszzl
@jdcmedlock @Maxtropolitan i.e. you would also have to be in favor of market consolidation and maximizing for economies of scale in other industries. It's a central planning argument that I don't think bears any fruit.
· ↳ reply to @s8mb
@s8mb this is dumb: they're very clearly the generation that followed the Hitler fighting one - the Boomers are a product of folks *returning* from WWII and having a bunch of kids, i.e. the baby boom. And even despite that, this is in the vein of wokescold nonsense. lighten up a little
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· ↳ reply to @s8mb
@s8mb i'm just saying, it seems somewhat disingenuous to take offense at something so lighthearted, as though it's a take generated to deliver hot moral righteousness into people's veins. but despite that, I do respect your opinion
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· ↳ reply to @tszzl
why doesn't this type of insurance exist already? would be a simple way to bet for or against the housing market by selling or buying these insurance products
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@Cullen_OK Sure but the landlord has to agree to this. It would be better if third parties offered long term rent insurance
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· ↳ reply to @AlexGodofsky
@AlexGodofsky Right so why aren’t there call options on rental units? Its a different niche than mortgage
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@paco_jrmr @MaronAoriak Just expand the section 8 voucher program. Why involve government on the supply side?
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· ↳ reply to @MaronAoriak
@MaronAoriak unrestricted development is essentially the constant state of Tokyo, which I consider one of the best cities in the world. It’s good policy. Obviously safety+accessibility should be encoded into building laws, but other than that we should be relatively laissez faire
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· ↳ reply to @AlexGodofsky
@AlexGodofsky Then why is rent control so popular? It’s often sold as an insurance policy against large rent increases
· ↳ reply to @alittlelist
@alittlelist @MaronAoriak Houston is still heavily regulated by things like minimum parking laws, mandatory setbacks, and of course the massive subsidies provided in the form of giant highways. The city would’ve evolved differently without these things
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· ↳ reply to @s8mb
@s8mb I only just now realize I’ve been massively trolled
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· ↳ reply to @Noahpinion
@Noahpinion I’m not a fan of free college and still think this argument is dumb. You can easily modify this to say “government shouldn’t run anything because republicans will eventually defund it” So Noah’s argument is that any institution that matters should be free market? 🤕
· ↳ reply to @tszzl
@Noahpinion Won’t m4a bleed the pharma companies and hospitals dry, depriving them of most of their revenue and incentive to do research?
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· ↳ reply to @tszzl
@trepur349 @Noahpinion Noah’s too rosy about college in general, which is an institution mostly designed to rip 4 years and a $100k out of your life for signaling benefits. The research is the only valuable thing that goes on in universities, not the education
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· ↳ reply to @tszzl
@trepur349 @Noahpinion The solution to rising college costs as with anything else is technocratic fiddling of course: the federal student loan program has created a never ending piggy bank for colleges to raise prices. Modify the subsidy structure for poor students so colleges have skin in the game
· ↳ reply to @tszzl
@trepur349 @Noahpinion Otherwise Noah’s benevolent universities will eventually collapse under a student debt crisis of their own making
· ↳ reply to @R00349
@trepur349 @Noahpinion There’s gotta be a way to do it without grifting though. It’s widely understood that markets undervalue research, so it would be wise to just spend some x% of gdp as research funding. After all, we had great universities even before the prices blew up
· ↳ reply to @R00349
@trepur349 @BWithFreedom @Noahpinion Wall Street tax is literally just a moral crusade “sin tax”. If you’re doing financial transactions, you must be a filthy capitalist so we’re gonna fine you. It’s not designed to be revenue raising
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· ↳ reply to @Noahpinion
@Noahpinion @Dnlmsstch It’s neoliberal to basically name your favorite American institution and then say only the markets can properly fund it
The same rocket technologies that allow placing starlink in space (which will bring internet to millions of unconnected btw) also lowers the cost of launching radio telescopes by an order of 10. This is alarmist nonsense https://x.com/jfagone/status/1198814773971845120
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· ↳ reply to @rbhaffey
@rbhaffey Yeah that’s the other side of this. Why should these people get to dictate what’s aesthetically pleasing or not? I’d rather see satellites streak across the sky than not
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@CascadianSolo respectfully disagree. the “humanities” are something everyone should be learning, all the time. civic virtue isn’t something any citizen can opt out of. I also don’t think most people should waste $100k and 4 years of their life formally reading Voltaire and Rousseau
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· ↳ reply to @tszzl
@CascadianSolo I may be strawmanning you a bit, but my sentiment is that it’s absolutely vital that most people study things that make them employable
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· ↳ reply to @uberfeminist
@uberfeminist I think you underestimate how much of being an entrepreneur is being a sort of huckster that makes prophetic claims until the company can cash the checks his tweets are writing
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· ↳ reply to @tszzl
@uberfeminist There’s a lot of shit he says that’s just outrageous, anyone can see that his Boring company demo ended up being a laughable one lane car tunnel— but the point was experimentation. The fact that some of his experiments succeed and end up landing rockets is enough for me
· ↳ reply to @tszzl
@uberfeminist The amount of money the reduced launch costs alone will save nasa, DoD, etc. are orders of magnitude above whatever subways he might have interfered with
· ↳ reply to @NickBurns
@NickBurns @jherrerx people on this website get #cancelled for a whole bunch of stupider reasons than this, the internet horde never does any lasting damage
my only regret for this decade is not buying bitcoin
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· ↳ reply to @Willetton
@Willetton What a trash critique Who the hell is stopping you from building the future that you want?
· ↳ reply to @neolibJock
@EggPapa3 Do CS, get a big 4 job, and become one of the most powerful people in the modern economy
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@NeolibShill Taking advantage of your elders’ ocular degeneration to own the cons 😍
· ↳ reply to @jdcmedlock
@jdcmedlock your mistake is thinking that these folks are afraid of the consequences of poverty rather than the consequences of loss of status. as you've said before, financial incentives are overrated. no amount of welfare will help with that; it'll maybe even hurt it.
· ↳ reply to @tszzl
@jdcmedlock the truth is that it's a desirable state of existence for high status people to need to fight tooth and claw to stay in that class. to be part of the richest 1% of humans in the world, you've got to earn that privilege every moment.
· ↳ reply to @tszzl
@jdcmedlock you can't build your worldview around the idea that there are massive inequalities of opportunity and then also believe we should make life easier for the upper middle class. makes no sense to have it both ways
· ↳ reply to @vgr
@vgr Interesting without a doubt
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· ↳ reply to @agraybee
@agraybee UMich students have a median household income of like 175k
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· ↳ reply to @tszzl
@agraybee at any rate I don’t think “free college pays for millionaires tuition!!” is or will ever be a good argument, seeing that their parents will pay more in taxes to cover the difference. I just don’t think it’s a good use of political capital. To reduce inequality, hand out money
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· ↳ reply to @tszzl
@agraybee Universities are corrupt credentialist rent seekers and I’m really not a fan of embedding the graft in amber forever. The markets will iterate on them much quicker than governments will
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· ↳ reply to @NeoLibBen
@NeoLibBen In my brief time at UMich Ross, one of my classmates was a French prince, and the median household income was 200k
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@NeolibShill this stuff gives people a complex wondering if their very normal patterns of affection are secretly abusive
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· ↳ reply to @tszzl
@AsVacation Housing stability isn’t a good goal. It often means keeping neighborhoods ethnically homogenous. But for people who value stability a great deal there should be better financing plans for mortgage backed condo buying, such that your costs are stable over time
@NeolibShill Especially because the kind of person who’ll see a message like this and actually internalize it is not the person to be afraid of
· ↳ reply to @DrewSav
@SenhorRaposa Nate Silver still thinks he’s in 2012, when endorsements meant something and the typical party power brokers held sway
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· ↳ reply to @_Jason_Dean_
@_Jason_Dean_ Everyone’s like “why Pete” but it’s so obvious. Everyone wants a Biden who’s young and vaguely inspiring, not some fringe and cringe leftist
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@CascadianSolo Is our deficit really a problem with interest rates below inflation?
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@jomgy @CascadianSolo Nah man MMT isn’t about interest bearing debt. As long as there’s someone willing to lend to us we can keep borrowing. Has little to do with central banks / monetary supply
· ↳ reply to @tszzl
@jomgy @CascadianSolo "net spending by the public sector is inflationary in so far as it is "financed" by the banking system, including the central bank, and not by the sale of state debt to the public." as long as it's preexisting capital that's buying our debt, there's no inflation
@daguilarcanabal @impcapital @urmilajanardan For example, we know that the market underproduces public education compared to its social utility. But we can grant school vouchers to have the market allocate those resources towards education
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The criticisms of free college “for millionaires” from the center are silly and reflect the same math mistake that some leftists make with VAT. You can’t analyze the tax side without the transfer side, and vice versa
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@Cullen_OK Universal programs are simpler to administer and more resilient to the shifting of political tides
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@Cullen_OK Plenty of evidence of the difficulty of applying for FAFSA. In Germany, moving from free college to total subsidy for the poor saw decreased attendance numbers for the lowest decile. The “sticker shock” syndrome. also smooths the marginal tax rate curve and avoids fiscal cliffs
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· ↳ reply to @tszzl
The real argument against free college is that college isn’t an ur-good. It’s mostly a standin credential for something more abstract. There are far more efficient investments to reduce inequality and imcrease human capital.
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@CascadianSolo What about that RGB decision that allows govt to eminent domain land for the sake of economic growth? Can this argument apply to wealth?
· ↳ reply to @jdcmedlock
@jdcmedlock I think UMC is smart enough to realize that their taxes are subsidizing poorer students for a net loss tho
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@CascadianSolo Especially ridic because this analysis purposefully leaves out Klob being really low and having a grad degree
· ↳ reply to @tszzl
@CascadianSolo Throw Obama onto this poll and democrats will give him a 100%
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@ProperOpinion We have lots of cost exploding regulations/subsidies in healthcare, housing, and education because the moral outcomes are unpalatable if some of these things weren’t in place. If we could remove those and offset with UBIs, costs would fall and all society would be richer
@CascadianSolo We could all be turned into gods by a benevolent AGI tomorrow, making all this pointless Best not to think about it
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If you take the pessimist view that college is mostly about credentials &not about education, then a college degree is equivalent to a taxi medallion. The value goes to 0 if there’s a lot of them. Regardless of the price, universities will carefully guard the quantity
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· ↳ reply to @tszzl
This is pretty much de facto true at the highest level, or else there would be 10 branches of Harvard each with 10x the current enrollment size. Whether the same thing applies to smaller state schools is a somewhat open question (but I’d wager the answer is yes)
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@CascadianSolo How does working towards a transhumanist future make you awful? This tech may lead to stuff only conceived of in scifi like fully controllable prosthetic limbs
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· ↳ reply to @nmoryl
@nmoryl the incentives for long term care are not there bc people switch jobs too often
· ↳ reply to @agraybee
@agraybee lol there’s an actual holocaust happening in China and quite a few tankies denying it
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· ↳ reply to @zslayback
@zslayback @Mangan150 ok but carbs are an essential macronutrient. Carbs making you depressed is like being allergic to oxygen. I’m open to a more nuanced claim but this seems silly. People are really bad at self diagnosing
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broke: the west wing, house of cards woke: Veep
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· ↳ reply to @Aella_Girl
@Aella_Girl I’ll take a stab at defending my Yes because no one else is: its less cruel to end an infant’s life before they become “conscious” under certain conditions than to keep them alive What that threshold is, I don’t know, and the mother’s judgment will be more conservative than mine
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· ↳ reply to @tszzl
@Aella_Girl If a mother is able to fight down her 5 billion years of evolutionary training telling her that the squalling baby before her is more important than life itself, then there’s probably a very good reason for it
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· ↳ reply to @Prolife_Sam
@Sam_DeLoach @RockHardScoop @Aella_Girl let’s say, for example, that a child has a congenital birth defect that’ll make his life short and miserable, under no uncertain terms. Doctors say he won’t live past 6 months. What about then?
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· ↳ reply to @Prolife_Sam
@Sam_DeLoach @RockHardScoop @Aella_Girl There is nothing in their power, try as they might. Nature is pointless cruel sometimes. If the doctor was right you’ve prolonged her suffering and added to the cruelty. I’d wager they’re right most of the time.
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· ↳ reply to @Prolife_Sam
@Sam_DeLoach @RockHardScoop @Aella_Girl I’m a pro-natalist. I’d be willing to fight to keep a child alive under anything but the most dire conditions. But I’d pull the plug if my child had to live something that was a mockery of life — an certain death congenital disease being one of them.
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· ↳ reply to @tszzl
@Sam_DeLoach @RockHardScoop @Aella_Girl These do exist in the real world and they’re the leading cause of late stage abortions. Women don’t wait 8 months and THEN get abortions if something dire hasn’t happened — I imagine it’s the same with neonatal infanticide
@CascadianSolo I love Mormons because they’re overwhelmingly capitalist and high achieving. Can’t get behind religious fundamentalism of any kind tho
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@MissionMan_MKIV @Sam_DeLoach @RockHardScoop @Aella_Girl I have a mouth and some autonomy to claim that my life is worth living. But what about when someone is incapable? An elderly patient past brain death for ex. They might have a medical proxy make decisions for them. The mother is the medical proxy for a baby
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@HaroldValentine @Sam_DeLoach @Aella_Girl Is it better to have a child live to early childhood and die of starvation (one of the most painful deaths imaginable) or to die as an infant? I’m not sure, but I wouldn’t judge someone if they took the second option
· ↳ reply to @K_Smith_MI
@K_Smith_MI @CascadianSolo @zackkanter He’s a SV capitalist and I know his general style of tweet — def satire. Anyway, it’s not in the playbook to actually *admit* the climate crisis isn’t about the environment
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· ↳ reply to @maiab
@maiab Ask the internet and you shall receive
· ↳ reply to @tszzl
my least favorite type of tweet is the highly political “xyz should be a mandatory class in high school” or “school doesn’t test for xyz merit”. Everyone thinks the world would be better if their ideology was shoved down school kids’ throats
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who tryna fuck around and find cosmic validation
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· ↳ reply to @agraybee
@agraybee what people think being a centrist is like: people of all stripes sympathize with you, your agenda universally prevails what being a centrist is actually like: everyone hates you and you're weakly bleating on about zoning laws
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@jomgy welfare universalism is good for tons of other reasons, including and especially avoiding giant marginal tax rates at welfare cliffs
· ↳ reply to @tszzl
@jomgy They’re simpler to administer, simpler to consume, and all around technocratic catnip
· ↳ reply to @maiab
@maiab looks like all it does is adjust this price per night right here. I thought I remembered it changing the search result but I guess not
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· ↳ reply to @agraybee
@agraybee What does this day about certain accounts putting out 20 tweets per day 😃
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· ↳ reply to @agraybee
@agraybee I’m joking boss. I agree w you, but the internet click farm business model does not
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· ↳ reply to @AlecStapp
@AlecStapp it’s possible that the lawlessness doesn’t extend to literal murders
There’s literally no societal ill in America that can’t be traced back to zoning law
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· ↳ reply to @vanillatary
@vanillatary The concentration camps in Xinjiang just scream to me that the enemies of the West have been done away with
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· ↳ reply to @Noahpinion
@Noahpinion from the very beginning the markets saw the potential in mayor Pete even when the rest of u idiot pundits didn’t I trust every predictit trader with $10 to their name more than @Noahpinion
this is true and v strange to me. you’d think more smart people would be extremely interested in building “the machine that builds the machine”. probably has everything to do with non competitive wages tbh https://x.com/micsolana/status/1201565239122239489
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@NeolibShill this guy has been off his game since the tentacle porn disaster
· ↳ reply to @alittlelist
@alittlelist imo culture is a result of economics, always. people learn to love the things that make them successful. few of my friends even considered government work after they graduated. the only ones who did got disheartened and looked elsewhere after finding out about the wages
· ↳ reply to @alittlelist
@alittlelist the markets are exactly as cruel as political dynamism, if not more so. but yeah your point about lack of control does make sense.
· ↳ reply to @ahardtospell
@ahardtospell Here’s another one: these tariffs serve as a sort of chaos monkey for our global supply chains, and in doing so make our economy more resilient to shocks
@CascadianSolo money in elections is completely overrated, it’s not about that
@CascadianSolo The fed should’ve opened paper markets and let the banks die
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@CascadianSolo liquidity at better than market rate is the same thing as giving away money
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· ↳ reply to @itsmarcoslopez
@MarcosLo_ @CascadianSolo it’s meant as a deterrent to “speculative” trading, so it increases volatility and bid-ask spreads, depresses asset prices, and generally makes the financial markets less efficient while also raising minimal revenue
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@AOCFeetRespectr what im really pissed about is that I managed to live throug the birth of the internet without making a million dollars or getting famous smh
@Momifornia1 Who should a self driving bus kill? It’s unavoidable
@Momifornia1 I definitely agree with you that car-centrism is bad but the fact of the matter right now is that autonomous vehicles represent an orders of magnitude incremental win for pedestrian safety, so we should be engaged in questions like the one the MIT article asks
· ↳ reply to @agraybee
@agraybee it's well known that Bernie is Kwisatz Haderach, anointed God-Emperor of Mankind
· ↳ reply to @thecliffbar
@thecliffbar @Momifornia1 Neither of these things are far off imo. Tesla at least is basically already capable of full self driving pending more testing and regulatory approval. You just have to get in one to see how far they’ve gotten
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· ↳ reply to @tszzl
@thecliffbar @Momifornia1 And the vision modules can already identify the difference between an old woman and a young man for ex. — once you have that data, whether or not you incorporate it into the reasoning and planning side is a design choice
@CascadianSolo True, but regardless he has a point. Pundits blaming racism for the unpopularity of a black candidate is telling on themselves that they’re completely disconnected from the voters
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· ↳ reply to @thecliffbar
@thecliffbar @Momifornia1 The failures are well publicized and the daily successes are kept quiet. I’m an ML researcher so I may be a bit biased, but I consider vision a solved task. That’s not to say crap engineering and crap datasets won’t lead to bad results, but the capability is there
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· ↳ reply to @jdcmedlock
@jdcmedlock If you’re a liberal, you have to accept this as unquestionably true. The real interesting question then is how to reach that goal, which we will all disagree on
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· ↳ reply to @thecliffbar
@thecliffbar @Momifornia1 imo Tesla’s sensor approach is good: LIDAR isn’t needed for vision — as a human, I’m able to see the road without shooting 360degree laser beams out my eyes. The improvements in stereoscopic vision processing achieve results that rival LIDAR
· ↳ reply to @conorduffy_7
@conorduffy_7 The “zealotry of the convert” is well-known tbh. It makes sense to be combative af when you first stake an ideological position and mellow over time
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· ↳ reply to @tszzl
@conorduffy_7 it’s also interesting that this entire globe twitter community seems to have gone through the r/atheism phase
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· ↳ reply to @Aella_Girl
@Aella_Girl Worse qol than literally EVERYBODY else? We’re talking the worst of human beings in the entire world?
· ↳ reply to @tszzl
@Aella_Girl imo your question is self contradictory. How are they the worst off but also have basic amenities?
· ↳ reply to @micsolana
@micsolana that movie is like one of those children’s books written w zero plot for no other reason than getting across a hamfisted “moral of the story”
· ↳ reply to @sonyasupposedly
@sonyasupposedly admiration for such honesty. Also slight sadness because people who are really good at going after these things don’t admit it if they’re trying to be effective
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· ↳ reply to @CKJohnsonBk
@CleopatrasHat @jdcmedlock I think reasonable people can healthily debate on a lot of policy decisions, like tax rates, intervention, etc without having different motives
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· ↳ reply to @CNLiberalism
@ne0liberal There’s a great scifi meditation on this by Greg Egan: “unstable orbits In the space of lies”
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· ↳ reply to @CNLiberalism
@ne0liberal ideology is great — nobody has the mental time or resources to devote to studying every single topic in any modicum of depth. You can maybe get understand one policy item in depth in an entire lifetime. For all else you need a camp of people you trust and a set of good priors
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· ↳ reply to @JohnCarltonKing
@JohnCarltonKing That may not be the right takeaway from this graph — it’s more like the US government was heavily propping up the housing market and homeownership and that policy has come back to bite everyone in the butt. The median wage over time is more helpful
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· ↳ reply to @tszzl
@JohnCarltonKing What’s funny is that our culture is so focused on homeownership that I can’t even find wealth statistics that aren’t tying the basic unit as “homeowner”
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@CascadianSolo how does that make sense? aren’t the future energy savings priced into the home as soon as you buy solar panels?
· ↳ reply to @tszzl
@CascadianSolo in a sane world you could run a DCF on expected savings per year and add that value to your home price as soon as you purchase
· ↳ reply to @robinhanson
@robinhanson I’d say it’s a huge mistake to even expect economists to predict the rise of things like social media
· ↳ reply to @tszzl
@robinhanson paul krugman predicting the uselessness of the Internet is less sad than everyone else not predicting the uselessness of paul krugman‘ predictions
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· ↳ reply to @jdcmedlock
@jdcmedlock a just society doesn’t inflate food prices either (just give money!)
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· ↳ reply to @Dr2chase
@Dr2chase @Momifornia1 The number of miles driven is clearly an important factor. It’s true that Uber killed a pedestrian; it’s also true that a pedestrian is killed every 90 minutes in America. The question is, for the number of miles they’ve driven, have they killed fewer people?
· ↳ reply to @Dr2chase
@Dr2chase @Momifornia1 A ‘test mile’ is a real mile driven under city driving conditions. It’s the real deal. When the Uber AV killed that pedestrian that was a test car.
· ↳ reply to @Dr2chase
@Dr2chase @Momifornia1 yeah of course they’ll cut corners, that’s how it goes— but the question is, is it incrementally safer than the awful reality we live in today where 50,000 pedestrians die a year? If it’s even 10% better we’d be monsters not to shift to autonomous vehicles
· ↳ reply to @Dr2chase
@Dr2chase @Momifornia1 There has been 1 pedestrian death in history as a result of AV, and Tesla autopilot has logged something like 2 billion miles. That being said, Tesla is a level 2 system. The results are promising, but it’s not full self driving
· ↳ reply to @Dr2chase
@Dr2chase @Momifornia1 You’re right, but you gotta attack this one from multiple angles. Convincing people to bike is a long and uphill battle
· ↳ reply to @eigenrobot
@eigenrobot yeah this but also heavily underrated is vast improvement in literacy and childhood education rates; i've no doubt both of these things contribute to increased IQ
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· ↳ reply to @tszzl
@eigenrobot also pretty certain 1900 was the middle of the S curve and we're now nearing the top - you can see it in the Olympians as well. Performance in top tier athletics appear to be nearing the top of a logistic curve
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· ↳ reply to @GonzoGeorgism
@GeolibGeorge @jdcmedlock We define these things relative to each other; by any measure a poor person in America is still one of the richest people in the world. So yes, there cannot be rich without poor and vice versus
i hope he DID work for the cia
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· ↳ reply to @offquietly
@orkoliberal this is genuinely a stupid move and has already hurt the people in Queens. It’s ok to notice a system level failure and still participate
@ShaunMaynard or it could be some mix of both, which I’m fine with tbh. What he’s saying about having a countervailing force is true, I just don’t know why you’d say it aloud as the most powerful Democrat
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· ↳ reply to @tszzl
@JohnCarltonKing @CascadianSolo It’s undeniable that the efficiency of the capital markets is a good thing, but I guess I’m not exactly sure what you’re criticizing
· ↳ reply to @JohnCarltonKing
@JohnCarltonKing @CascadianSolo Isn’t that kind of the point though? In a free market if you don’t make the customer happy you die. If you don’t make your employees happy, they’ll leave. Obv many workers don’t have the security to make that choice which we can smooth over with welfare & unions
· ↳ reply to @tszzl
@JohnCarltonKing @CascadianSolo You’ve not pointed out any system level flaw other than that poverty reduces bargaining power. And the “short term profits vs long term value” thing is a meme, share value represents all future earnings
· ↳ reply to @tszzl
@JohnCarltonKing @CascadianSolo the only way to cannibalize your future for short term share value is if there are serious information assymetries like fraud — this won’t get fixed just bc you have one extra board seat for a union rep
· ↳ reply to @jdcmedlock
@jdcmedlock @MaxGhenis They need to have offices in multiple cities so they can get access to talent that’s otherwise inaccessible/unwilling to move. So some level of decentralization is necessary. Even then, spreading 50,000 in 10 places is clearly worse than in two for example
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· ↳ reply to @tszzl
@jdcmedlock @MaxGhenis there will always be competing centralization and decentralization pressure, but new york’s actions shifted the equilibrium. That being said, I’m not exactly concerned for amazon. Just not a fan of this self-owning populism
· ↳ reply to @jdcmedlock
@jdcmedlock @MaxGhenis It’s not, and this won’t hurt amazon at all. Just not a fan of this self-owning populism driving jobs out of queens. The tax amzn pays to the city government is clearly positive net of incentives
· ↳ reply to @jdcmedlock
@jdcmedlock @MaxGhenis the alternative is that cities compete only on tax rate. that may be preferable; I’m not completely sure. but what I am sure of is that each individual principality stands to gain by offering incentives under the current system. sitting out the game isn’t a real option
· ↳ reply to @MaxGhenis
@MaxGhenis @jdcmedlock If you look at this as a market where the price is a tax bill, then some municipality can offer a targeted subsidy that lowers net tax to near $0. But, nyc+queens can’t well lower the general tax rate to 0% to compete with that. So they’re on the back foot
· ↳ reply to @MaxGhenis
@MaxGhenis @jdcmedlock how does that fall under any of the typical modes of market failure? Haggling is a feature of many real world markets
· ↳ reply to @MaxGhenis
@MaxGhenis @jdcmedlock These subsidy processes are usually completely public — and the other thing that the market analogy misses is that on the city’s side, there are thousands of new revenue streams even if amazon paid $0 in corporate tax
· ↳ reply to @tszzl
@MaxGhenis @jdcmedlock My hunch is that total tax revenues would fall if cities couldn’t try and capture the Whales and their accompanying revenue streams with targeted packages
· ↳ reply to @tszzl
@accountable_gov @NickTerry9 @NewaHailu let's say that you read a headline saying 'Stalin now top baby name in US', and you expressed anger at this. Does that make you some sort of a bigot? Muhammad was a medieval warlord and conqueror (i don't particularly care about this, but i'm trying to illustrate a point)
@Bodyisturd @jessesingal how is that a valid critique? if all of string theory turns out to be abstruse mathematical fan fiction without an iota of physical truth, it will join the majority of ideas ever had in academia. doesn't make it less virtuous to study
· ↳ reply to @Shachtmanite
@NickTerry9 @accountable_gov @NewaHailu as i've before there's a difference between expressing dismay at something, as many reasonable religious folks do for abortion or gay marriage or any of the other abrahamic shibboleths, and attempting to use legal force to ban it
@Bodyisturd @jessesingal yeah actually I see that as a plausible (self-consistent) argument, albeit completely wrong. String theory has cultural cache because it's got physical and mathematical merit. Anecdotally, the only string theorist I know at my university is black
@Bodyisturd @jessesingal you're right, but you can explain it easily for reasons unrelated to racial hierarchies -- for example, Everett's many worlds interpretation is hugely popular without much to show for it, mostly because it makes for awesome story telling.
@un_a_valeable @accountable_gov do political ideologies fit into neat boxes? they do not. even on twitter, you'll find a vast spectrum of people who call themselves leftists who are bitterly feuding with all the other ones. If religion means a shared culture, you could say the same thing of liberal democracy
· ↳ reply to @tszzl
@un_a_valeable @accountable_gov there is no difference between religiousness and nationalism or liberalism or any of the other broad ranges of belief sets that give people meaning
· ↳ reply to @tszzl
@accountable_gov @NickTerry9 @NewaHailu I will also say that muhammad and most other religious leaders throughout history were violent genocidal maniacs, against whom there should be no stigma for criticizing. their names shouldn't be held in high regard, and it's ok to view the headscarf as a symbol of oppression
· ↳ reply to @tszzl
@accountable_gov @NickTerry9 @NewaHailu the number of people who disagree should never be the metric against which to judge these things. the abrahamic religions are antithetical to liberalism, and the religious scholars realize this
· ↳ reply to @NewaHailu
@NewaHailu @accountable_gov @NickTerry9 I don't think my point is that subtle, you're just strawmanning me instead of addressing the point at hand. I think the Nazi party should have the right to exist and Nazis the right to free speech. I think Nazism is antithetical to liberalism. Are those two things contradictory?
@accountable_gov @NickTerry9 @NewaHailu they haven't really coexisted peacefully with liberalism. every new generation does untold violence to religious establishments in this country -- shibboleths like abortion and gay marriage have been ceded to liberalism. church attendance is in complete freefall
· ↳ reply to @NewaHailu
@NewaHailu @accountable_gov @NickTerry9 religions are death cults. more people have been killed in the name of various prophets than in the name of nazism/communism. religions promise eternal violence & punishment against their enemies as a fundamental part of their belief set. they’re not analogous to the color red
@accountable_gov @NickTerry9 @NewaHailu because your version of christianity is one that's had all of its powerful bits ceded and destroyed in the name of liberalism. the church holds no power and you believe in a watered down version of christianity that accepts all the liberal values first and foremost
· ↳ reply to @Gus_802
@Gus_802 this guy sucks major ass and I’ll be very glad when he’s irrelevant in a few years
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@CascadianSolo it’s interesting how vastly different the outcomes are — post Mao China worked wonderfully, whereas post Soviet Russia essentially degenerated into a kleptocratic oligarchy. Do you have anything good to read on this?
· ↳ reply to @KyleJT
@KyleJT still miraculous, somehow convinced people that making a middle class income makes her a fatcat. Does WSJ work for Bernie Sanders?
· ↳ reply to @tszzl
nothing has ever convinced me of @ESYudkowsky theory about the news more than this has: we all know this is nonsense, but by the power of suggestion WSJ has us suspecting other people care. Now we’re trapped into dealing with it
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@CapitalistGhoul you don’t even have to go there to debunk this: porn is different because all parties are consulting adults. Who the hell consults to getting murdered?
· ↳ reply to @Noahpinion
@Noahpinion there are people in third world countries who manage to do something nice for a whole of 2 [TWO] holidays
@CascadianSolo The eternal “eating street food in the Midwest” campaign photo
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· ↳ reply to @tszzl
@ryxcommar also you’ve permanently become “twitter job search guy”
Me, while fully acknowledging that some of my professors follow me:
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· ↳ reply to @NeoLibBen
@NeoLibBen @nicks847 there's absolutely no doubt that life under US conservatorship is better than life under the Taliban, but the better question is if dollar for dollar our Afghanistan policy is/was the most efficient way to ensure global welfare
· ↳ reply to @NeoLibBen
@NeoLibBen @nicks847 afghanistan's gdp per capita today is comparable to korea's gdp per cap in the 1960s. time will tell if it was a good investment, but I'm somewhat skeptical. What if we had given a tenth of the afghanistan budget to Gates Foundation type activities?
· ↳ reply to @Chris_arnade
@Chris_arnade your argument directly values the slightly deflated industrial community more than the people who now aren’t going to starve in Jakarta
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@NeolibShill globe emojis are the foot soldiers. we first name only chads are the real thought leadersTM
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I look forward to fixing climate change in the next few decades with capitalist finagling, not because it’ll save the world, but because it’ll piss off the left
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· ↳ reply to @tszzl
the North Star of any good policy
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· ↳ reply to @Sam_Dumitriu
@Sam_Dumitriu in futures markets it’s been shown that information becomes less and less reliable as you approach the contract maturation date
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im being oppressed by the tech bros pt 2
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@NeolibShill not that bad all things considered tbh, most accounts don’t tweet a lot and the timeline service just filters for accounts I interact with a lot
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· ↳ reply to @owenrumney
@owenrumney there are businesses in Britain whose fundamental assumptions rely on the free trade, so the abrupt change is worse than the steady state
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@CascadianSolo I don’t think it’s fair to characterize BoJo as a business as usual Tory
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owning the libs by calling it the Obama "regime"
the takeaway from the UK isn't anything to do with ideology or Brexit or whatever. it's the same lesson for the last 50 years. the most entertaining government wins. the electorate are shitposters https://x.com/thwphipps/status/617371513277259776
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Now that we've toppled Starcraft we have to put all our efforts into solving Snakes and Ladders
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· ↳ reply to @KyleJT
@KyleJT There’s probably some company in Japan already working on this
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· ↳ reply to @tszzl
2021: Greta Elevated to God-Empress of Mankind by Orgiastic Mob
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