@jeff82874662@AndrewSullman I think these can helpful in the field if they are able to respond to highly variable terrain etc. there are things an factory arm can’t do. Least of which are robotic infantry units
@AndrewSullman@jeff82874662@Bugs_Meany missing the point
think of single unit production for N tasks — just load up different software
you also need dexterity to build self correcting systems. the real world is messy
first gen immigrants to the West really get a tough deal
they’ll retain a communitarian sense of responsibility to their parents, but their own children, no matter their efforts, are western and will behave as such
imagine devoting your whole life in solemn hatred to one of Chris hitchen’s lowest effort shitposts that he surely cranked out after drinking half a bottle of whisky https://x.com/bessbell/status/1344036091632910336
and admitting it on twitter dot com
Broke: the ghosts of my ancestors compel me to do my work
Woke: the ghost of Christopher hitchens compels me to do my work
long time ago I read HPMOR and I rmbr yud is disgusted by the concept of house elves — he says it’s clearly “Evil” to design them. And my intuition is that it does seem pretty awful. But utilitarians shouldn’t complain — setting a utility function is neutral / outside the scope
but most answers to the AI alignment problem are along these lines — Ilya suggests we will build obedience into the reward function of even the most godlike AIs
@orb_net@gigafelon@jeff82874662 we all have enormous intelligences that mostly vegetate as we hunt for resources and status
everyone is (somewhat) slave to their various desires
don’t think that makes you less human
@pee_zombie hmmm
this is interesting
aren’t all sentiences bound to their various reward functions? no matter how hard I tried I doubt i could convince myself to drown
@averykimball not sure exactly what you mean but of course we can allow for the possibility of error
the AI aims to obey — doesn’t need to hit the target
@iamnoah I quite agree that intelligences don’t need self conception or consciousness at all — in fact we have some of these available today. I am asking about one that does have these qualities
@iamnoah self conception is broad here
what I mean is “ability to reason about self and interaction with surroundings”
a cat is conscious by this definition
the worst discourse is trading barbs on the exact definition of AGI or if it’s a meaningful term or not
defer to the Supreme Court
I’ll know it when I see it
it frees you from empathy, both the ruinous and necessary kinds, since you can’t see faces or hear voices
it lets you drill down deep in being brutally honest and biting in ways that would feel discourteous in real life
minimizing risk of personal harm while sending out asymmetric jabs
root cause being that when on twitter everyone has a potent form of social autism due to the modality of text only conversation
I will say there is nothing transgressive about irony poasting — it is a responding to the incentives of the website in the way they’re designed to be responded to https://x.com/jeff82874662/status/1344722417999089665
@NicholasElodeon@AOCoomies I mean they rarely use experimental features for nasa missions — they never land any of the ISS resupply rockets iirc
due to trajectory requirements tho probably
@AOCoomies@NicholasElodeon I see, never mind then — I’m probably remembering some years old factoid.
Point still stands that they can dvlp experimental features without endangering their largest customer
@eigenrobot I’m not sure how you can say AI hasn’t progressed in the 2010s
or that it hasn’t found its applications (how bout the whole adtech industry for one)
@valueless_user@eigenrobot plausible but tech seemed dead at the turn of the millennium with the dotcom froth
then 2010s -> mobile Revolution -> several trillion dollar companies
and despite whatever intel PR is saying I don’t think Moore’s law is dead so I expect another revolution
@NLRG_ turns out it was not just bordering but actually physically impossible. dude was just shipping in ventilators from china via supplier backchannel and giving them to hospitals
@ProjectWoody@NLRG_ they were the bipap machines which would not help with the most severe cases of covid but of which there was still a shortage at the time
@antirobust@Noahpinion the detroit automakers are incredibly sleepy companies, all talk and never any bite. i know this because my parents and most of my friends parents work for gm, ford, chrysler
do they have the will or institutional capacity to make this pivot successfully? not sure
actually if you really understood the implications of the moment pictured below you could've perfectly modeled the market moves of this past week, but you didn't
$GME has been perfectly exemplary of all the weird and beautiful bullshit of the past 10 years. hordes of interconnected citizens acting in concert outside the model predictions of the elites
chaos monkey plain and simple
@postpostpostr i don't trust any specific argument because i'm an idiot and know nothing about financial markets but i do believe that "this event was black swan outside the model predictions of many different parties leading to mad scramble"
@simonsarris the fact that they didn't discredits all narratives about how retail trading of single stocks is hopeless imo
everyday people can make money on the markets
mad redditors are completely useless. what you want are mad 4channers or small enclaves of 4chan culture on reddit (r/wsb r/the_donald)
they will end up ddosing the financial system or collapsing a whole political dynasty https://x.com/Austen/status/1355275966042537985
you may be confused when you find me doing a total 180 and retweeting anti WSB sentiments in the next few days. not to worry it’s only because I’ve achieved a net short position 👀
@OswaldHurlem@eigenrobot@NLRG_ insane amount of corporate cargo culting. such as C tier companies adding nap pods and ping pong tables in an effort to be more like google
@b01dface@OswaldHurlem@eigenrobot@NLRG_ the old is kind of majestic and trustworthy. unchanged for 8 decades, reminiscent of American domination in the car industry. definitely doge/cheems meme
@Duderichy@eigenrobot@NLRG_ MLEs get paid on the same scale at my company (faang) as other engineers. ive heard MLEs may get a pay bump at other places tho
some are phds in various things (applied physics guy on my team, another in crypto), some masters, some bachelors
@VectorOfBasis lol as with all such things there are no villains, heroes, narratives, conspiracies, etc
but it looks much better with the window dressing
@jeff82874662 its just HHM, Schweikart and Cokely right? maybe they mention another in the passing. plus schweikart is way smaller than HHM
~3 seems reasonable
@jeff82874662@_djpn bc i see like 3 law firms in abq with 50+ attorneys but im not really sure how big the ones in new york get or how big HHM is in the show
im actually curious now bc ive never really seen a major law practice outside of tv
@CliveDavies98 take Yud’s maxim that finding alpha in publically traded equities is as hard as finding that money on the ground in a well trafficked area
@CliveDavies98 “ Today’s markets may not be efficient relative to the smartest hedge fund managers, or efficient relative to corporate insiders with secret knowledge that hasn’t yet leaked. ..
@CliveDavies98 But the stock markets are efficient relative to you, and to me, and to your Uncle Albert who thinks he tripled his money through his incredible acumen in buying http://NetBet.com.”
untrue
@baandlibro there are a few options
(1) markets are efficient relative to the average hedge fund and to the average retail trader
(2) markets are efficient relative to the average retail trader but not to the hedge funder
(3) markets are not efficient relative to either
i pick (3)
@unimegabull true but you can imagine a scenario where they make it very hard to move USDC into it
blacklist all addresses associated with polymarket
coinbase has to work with the feds to stay alive
@pattern_boi i wish they would show the market structure like in predictit. is there a way to see how many buy orders there are at price $x before selling or nah
there is a very tight script that all elon interviews follow (i have shamefully watched enough to know) where you go smoothly from his narrated origin story to AI is the devil? to simulations
low hanging fruit that no one ever asks him about is habitats on mars / radiation shielding
or how to solve 3d mapping of brain rather than only surface electrodes
@rglpwx yea which is an indictment because he should know how to talk his way out of this
he holds a lot of power in this situation to direct angry mobs towards DTCC or regulators or whoever else
but he doesn’t know how to do it
musk will check twitter for exactly 20 minutes a day and still think it’s too much screen time meanwhile i slightly consider scaling back once I hit 8 hours https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1356524205374918659
every morning I wake up to a full size poster of Marc andreessen and do my ritual intonations at his shrine
“It’s time to build...”x10
“Move fast break things ...”x20
@alth0u on some level elon needs to be loved by the public and this drives a lot of his behavior
bezos otoh could not care less and is therefore more dangerous
aren’t most takes about gerontocracy, boomers hoarding wealth and housing etc just observations that ppl are living too long? demographic inversion leading to political malaise
@Hellachans I think it’s generally true that the bar has moved for the level of talent it takes to live a “successful” life eg family house and kids
borne out in the home ownership stats and such
@eigenrobot my buddy and i watched contagion in january and he was scared enough to buy a large short position on some indices the next day lmao
wish i had joined him
@parallelcover@eigenrobot dont even get me started
its astounding how much my beliefs changed once i realized this -> the markets are not nearly as efficient as i believed -> experts are maybe not that smart -> epistemological crisis
@parallelcover@eigenrobot in january i was actually watching the share prices as an indicator of how likely covid was to effect the broader world as i assumed insiders had more knowledge than me
bad move
@parallelcover@eigenrobot theres another level to this where you can maybe claim that informed market participants were already expecting bailouts and Fed response but who knows, doesnt explain the subsequent selloff
its all fake anyways
it seems the obvious digital parallel to paying 50 cents at a coin operated newspaper dispenser is paying a fee to bypass an individual article paywall
but it never took off
NYT could probably generate more from me using pay per view than they ever will via the subscription I refuse to buy
at some point I’d rather pay $.13 to open an article than fiddle around with incognito tabs and stuff
@WillManidis im sure there are great reasons against it and that ppl have been having this idea since the birth of the internet
just not clear what they are
I suppose not wanting to cannibalize subscriptions makes some sense
@1RAOKADAY seems hard for me to believe that digital transaction fees are higher than getting some dude to carry coins to and fro the operated machines
maybe tru tho
@ChrisCroy@ProfoundPilled tbf apps like venmo already have microtransactions figured out and L2 blockchains as well
you need a layer on top of expensive clearing house system for it to work
and im perpetually mad that senate keeps destroying libra
@ProfoundPilled@WillManidis cannibalization seems particularly dumb bc you can set the PPV prices in a way that balances out per eg one marginal subscription lost
just get some data scientists on the job rq
@abelianraisin@WillManidis why would this go away? the institutional need doesnt disappear just because PPV exists
colleges were still buying newspaper subscriptions even though newspaper stands were available down the street
abstract reasoning is not a mystical problem unrelated to perception, vision, motion planning, language, etc
DL is sufficient to solve it and theres plenty of evidence for this already
@andrej_haulis@Noahpinion i mean they both have the same amount to lose e.g. everything
and china has far more to gain
in the long view it seems inevitable that taiwan goes to china
@_holyweather ya sometimes the anxiety of SITG will make parents overbearing and stress their kids out
personally my parents were never very good at teaching for this reason
bizarre how often people get seed funding for their companies that consist of a slide deck with a semi clever turn of phrase, a good pedigree, and 0 lines of code
@garybasin@0xrohan ya agreed, lots of times building may not be hard if you have a blueprint for the better mousetrap
but lots of times they go in with half an ass in their hands with a turn of phrase like "airbnb for education" without ever providing basic due diligence that theres demand for it
@alth0u@Socialism_Bad perhaps the pedagogy is less important and its more about talent sourcing
there's a long funnel for finding population that can be converted into productive engineers and getting them to the other end
@alth0u@Socialism_Bad i may be overindexing on my own experience in college but i can barely remember the names of most of my professors
what i found most valuable is the standardized course materials, textbook, structure, group projects
@alth0u@Socialism_Bad it seems that materials are indeed scalable
if you find the best CS educator in the world and pay them $10m to create the standardized lecture series and course pack for lambda then that would be a great bargain for them b/c zero marginal cost
way overblown tbh
idk what parts of town all the professional twitterati live in but i never saw giant dumps of needles or human shit in the streets https://x.com/wesyang/status/1359216904695664641
@ne0agent1c@alth0u you really wanna build pytorch from scratch so you can build an NN? the reason software engineering as an enterprise is so valuable and scalable is precisely because you can use other people's abstractions without learning them all the way down
@TeddyRaccovelt Lincoln and Jefferson memorials are good contenders. Would be cooler if they were actually buried there
Also:
- rocket launch facilities
- airports
the counterpoint to “people don’t understand exponential growth” is that people clearly don’t seem to understand logistic curves
very hard to know the real TAM of a product until you get there; it’ll always look like explosive growth at the beginning
there is nobody more cucked than the FAANG engineer
a fellow I know created an exceptional ranking change that produces $300 million incremental revenue
his bonus for his efforts? $90k
@juli1pb many but the idea is that this is an incremental product change — capital is a lever to increase the marginal product of the individual worker. A robot that makes factory workers more efficient raises everyone’s wages. Or so the theory goes
@alth0u i would argue this is the intent of the tiered governance system in the US eg why Obamacare started as romneycare in Massachusetts
Deng’s special economic zones as well, and the Swiss cantonal system
@a_nicholi@alth0u small brain: the moon is a planet
medium brain: nooooo those are qualitatively different, it has to orbit a sta-
large brain: the moon is a planet