@tszzl — page 102/103

2025-09-13 → 2025-09-29 · posts 50501–51000 of 51,350
· ↳ reply to @tszzl
obviously when you increase the size of a pool of resources the resource's value decreases but so does the output price of all the produced goods and services
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· ↳ reply to @emmysteuer
@emmysteuer same w succession, its 'the rich are evil' porn while you still get to visually enjoy the trappings of the rich
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· ↳ reply to @Indian_Bronson
@Indian_Bronson general motors is a shit business that operates on like 10% gross margin, when their labor costs decrease, mostly what happens is that in the best case they manage to eke out another year against foreign competitors, and in the worst case we all get cheaper Chevys
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· ↳ reply to @eigenrobot
@eigenrobot that's true as a class the foreign workers sees the highest gain vs the alternative to the deal
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· ↳ reply to @tszzl
@eigenrobot but i don't think that means that the net gain from the transaction mostly accrues to them, i think it means they see the most visible change in fortune
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· ↳ reply to @Indian_Bronson
@Indian_Bronson but what are you implying here? are you saying the business became shitty due to the foreign labor? i'm thinking gm was fucked ever since it had to start competing on the production of physical goods with japan and germany and so on
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the great treachery of the clouds, which will not catch you when you fall from the heavens despite looking so cushy
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· ↳ reply to @esrtweet
@esrtweet >I am sympathetic to the argument that a nation is not just an economic zone me too! if americans want fewer foreign laborers, then fewer they should get! reduce h1b, etc but i will not accept naive arguments from the right that foreign labor doesn't have obvious benefits
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· ↳ reply to @tszzl
many on the right will argue that any instance of a foreigner getting an american job must be downstream of some kind of cheating on the part of either employer or employee, which i find to be abhorrent and even wildly disrespectful of the amount to the foreign-origin workers who have contributed to the great enterprises of this country
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· ↳ reply to @tarduchser
@tarduchser they invite too many net negative immigrants and give them massive welfare packages, America is exceptional
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· ↳ reply to @MeridianMindset
@MeridianMindset @esrtweet yeah sure! i grew up in Michigan where my dad started as an H1b at an automaker, less prestigious. i am sure he did a good job for the company
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no matter what happens down here, you live, you die, you waste the day, you seize the day, that damned clockwork of the sun and the moon in the heavenly firmament is unbroken
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to tell you the truth. while it’s funny to make fun of discord, it is a completely invaluable platform. the creation of its cultural islands, the great variance of ideologies it has produced, are signs of a great success. in a homogenizing world it is remarkable to breed new life https://x.com/tszzl/status/1966570949920387445
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· ↳ reply to @tszzl
fellow creators the creator seeks, those who write new values on new tablets
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In their account of capitalism, surely the most impressive since Marx's, Deleuze and Guattari describe capitalism as a kind of dark potentiality which haunted all previous social systems. Capital, they argue, is the 'unnamable Thing', the abomination, which primitive and feudal societies 'warded off in advance'. When it actually arrives, capitalism brings with it a massive desacralization of culture. It is a system which is no longer governed by any transcendent Law; on the contrary, it dismantles all such codes, only to re-install them on an ad hoc basis. The limits of capitalism are not fixed by fiat, but defined (and re- defined) pragmatically and improvisationally.
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capital wants you strapped to the chair eyes taped open scrolling for you page, auto-playing gore videos, developing your racial animus, exploiting everything weak and sinful about you while it gloats and celebrates most downloaded app on the planet. fuck yeah bro for you page
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· ↳ reply to @RonenV
@RonenV just the feeling of this past week
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· ↳ reply to @agiannih
@agiannih I said it was a harder metric to fool than many others. People vote with their feet if your platform is interesting at all. Engagement is a precursor to utility, but not at all equivalent
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· ↳ reply to @jposhaughnessy
@jposhaughnessy Hello Jim, when I say “capital” I mean the impersonal force and what the incentives want us to do rather than any individual. we should do another podcast soon I quite enjoyed our first one years ago!
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the smooth continuity of neural embedding spaces is fighting an image of man as a being of rules and axioms. it invites every form of relativism into our self-understanding
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· ↳ reply to @tszzl
@carl_claw can't even imagine telling the hundreds of thousands of people working hard for american companies that they're parasites under essentially any circumstances
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say something nice about her
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· ↳ reply to @EgeErdil2
@EgeErdil2 @Jukanlosreve isn't south korea's economy dominated by electronics and other capital intense industries? why would the labor share of income be so high
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the closer you are to perfect competition, race dynamic, the more the machine owns you. moloch runs the show. only monopolies can be kind
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america is 4.1% of the world’s population
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· ↳ reply to @tszzl
let's say americans are the best people on earth, and produce ten times more geniuses than any other population (genius here doesn't have to mean intelligence, it could be some combination of traits you like) americans are 4.1% of the world's population, and so even under these crazy 10x highly exceptional conditions a whopping 70% of all genius would be born elsewhere
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· ↳ reply to @tszzl
there is basically no level of american exceptionalism you might have where you wouldn't accept that lots, maybe most special people are being born elsewhere and if you accept that premise then you have to think hard about which among them are capable of becoming americans i’m afraid many of my smart friends are becoming radicalized into forgetting this basic math due to individual policy failures, sometimes arbitrary selection criteria
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· ↳ reply to @PrometheusNRx
@PrometheusNRx the number we get through our skilled immigration programs is tiny, nowhere near 50 million
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· ↳ reply to @protosphinx
@protosphinx yeah but who cares? the control policy is the easiest part of the puzzle
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· ↳ reply to @shubhorup
@shubhorup at 25x you hit the break even point of 50:50 inside and outside
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· ↳ reply to @Andr3jH
@Andr3jH a better time, what I wouldn’t give to rewind to then
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· ↳ reply to @emollick
@emollick this is good and optimal seeing as autonomous coding will create the beginning of the takeoff that encompasses all those other things
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· ↳ reply to @Indian_Bronson
@Indian_Bronson I agree, let’s remember not to throw the baby out with the bathwater. opinion is thermostatic always so I don’t expect any disasters in this domain
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· ↳ reply to @vineettiruvadi
@vineettiruvadi coding lets you build the cybernetic sensor platform that lets you gather that data from reality anyways
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Meltdown Capital formed a One World Government long ago, with minor threats in the middle of the 20th century
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vip section of peter thiel antichrist lecture is a worse place to be caught than the epstein flight logs
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seems pretty clear that the most likely candidate for antichrist will come as the impersonal forces of capital that arrive as the charismatic borg queen and rule the planet without ever even publicly asserting the one world governance
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right now is the time where the takeoff looks the most rapid to insiders (we don’t program anymore we just yell at codex agents) but may look slow to everyone else as the general chatbot medium saturates
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· ↳ reply to @Kat__Woods
@Kat__Woods i think we lost control sometime in the late 18th century
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gradual disempowerment can happen with forces other than artificial intelligence, and arguably already has
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one would hope that exposure to talking machines would help people with the other nonhuman collective intelligences
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one would hope that exposure to talking machines would help people empathize with other nonhuman collective intelligences
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· ↳ reply to @MatthewJBar
@MatthewJBar yeah this is obvious and yet when you say it people act like you killed a puppy. open source is disappointing and hasn't made meaningful contributions to ai progress even in niche domains where focused parties should dominate
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· ↳ reply to @littmath
@littmath i will give you a more thoughtful answer in the morning but the baseline thing being surrender to market logic, the desacralization/deterritorialization of all human culture in subservience to production efficiency. an alien machine makes all of our things for us
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· ↳ reply to @Bunagayafrost
@Bunagayafrost yes, exporting many of our core production functions to other countries is disempowerment
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· ↳ reply to @tszzl
gradual re-empowerment
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· ↳ reply to @dylanmatt
@dylanmatt it helps to know stuff anyway so you can yell at your agents more effectively, it's not seamless
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and you have slack emojis that say things like “Bob magic” and it becomes an existential risk to the company when Bob goes on vacation for a week. the anthropology of this is not dissimilar to having a village wizard https://x.com/khoomeik/status/1968027724913709071
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people have a inherent bias to thinking computers are safe because they just sit there. the FAA regulation is 1,000 pages long when a plane crash kills a couple hundred at most, guns kill thousands, the internet can destroy whole civilizations. bodies without organs
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your data and footprint is becoming more and more valuable to you over time. record everything, have a model parse it all in ten years
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· ↳ reply to @tszzl
get a lawyer and mark it (ac privileged) though
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· ↳ reply to @tszzl
or you know, let it die, live in the moment. that is perfectly honorable too
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history is never over, the technology tree is far deeper than anyone thinks, nature’s imagination is so much greater than man’s
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· ↳ reply to @Consigllierre
@JonPolSol Who’s really ever okay? We’re all living and dying, there’s no reason to be chill and normal
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WRONG! there’s no reason a priori to believe that cost savings won’t be passed onto the consumer due to retail competition. when goods and services get cheaper downstream businesses & jobs are created where none were possible before. automation, cheap labor, offshoring, all good https://x.com/Jason/status/1968147909372723434
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· ↳ reply to @oksachal
@oksachal this is only true if everything they are qualified for no longer exists, which seems like a very strict assumption!
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bro last night was a testament to our culture and civilization
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· ↳ reply to @tszzl
bro last night was an special exhibition in the Louvre
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· ↳ reply to @oksachal
@oksachal there’s tons and tons of manual labor that is quite hard to automate with warehouse robotics
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· ↳ reply to @tszzl
Thank you for your attention to this matter!
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Bill Ackman Bill Synman
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· ↳ reply to @oksachal
@oksachal @Figure_robot if you think all blue collar labor will be automated soon you’re looking at a material abundance thats unimaginable today
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· ↳ reply to @perrymetzger
@perrymetzger having good economic intuitions puts you miles ahead of all other armchair philosophers
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roon has got his fingers in a lot of pies - from “the god-whispers of @tbpn” by jordi & john
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· ↳ reply to @Noahpinion
@Noahpinion I think the American civic ethos is coming apart at the seams and this is not a good idea even if H1B is highly economically positive (which I am sure it is). revisit when the temperature is lower
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· ↳ reply to @Noahpinion
@Noahpinion have you seen what is happening in Malibu and the Palisades? the new regulation restricts buildings even as dense as it was pre-fires. If you nuked San Francisco it would never see a high rise again
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· ↳ reply to @tszzl
I love Anthropic because they are apologizing for mildly degrading 0.8% of requests which is a normal Tuesday at most software companies
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· ↳ reply to @colin_fraser
@colin_fraser @peligrietzer for any game you can simulate i'd wager you can now get to superhuman with modern models, but it is an interesting point that extreme reinforcement learning pressure on these goals doesn't generalize as you might hope
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it must be such a relief to believe that the Invisible Hand is the hand of God
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Master Hand and Crazy Hand are a metaphor for mammon and moloch
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· ↳ reply to @Eggelstein
@Eggelstein this is dumb and if you switch out the subject 'god' in your statement to anything else you'd realize it's dumb
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people are such weaklings about their belief in liberalism now ... in the star trek era they were dreaming of a retrofuture Galactic Federation that governed entirely different species and planets with vastly different cognitive profiles and political needs and so on
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· ↳ reply to @tszzl
but it also it was still mainly run out of America, sector00 Earth, and namely Starfleet in san francisco
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· ↳ reply to @growing_daniel
@growing_daniel they are not built for their country vanishing into complete nothing either which is the first trend
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diluting your culture is always preferable to having it be destroyed, and this is why capital realism seems to claim the victory
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· ↳ reply to @growing_daniel
@growing_daniel well let me ask you this, can they make 100,000 smart Chinese or Korean people a year into Japanese citizens?
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· ↳ reply to @EHawk753
@EHawk753 @growing_daniel they had a lower, youthful population. in modern capitalism nobody has kids and everyone is old. and the only thing old people can do is extract the labor of the young
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this is a strangely unedgy thing to say, it is in fact fully endorsed by liberal capitalism. living in the warm lap of our political culture, you get to show up to theater and pay $20 to watch Wall-E, which is making fun of you for your consumptive behavior https://x.com/imPenny2x/status/1968751416131916267
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learning things on semafor dot com
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courts have ruled that it’s ok to train models on a book you’ve purchased so long as you have destroyed the originals. destructive scanning and uploading to the akashic record, annihilating ancient scrolls to make tokens for the token god. very borgesian stuff going on nowadays
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physical industry tends to create ecological and environmental devastation and makes cities unlivable - over time we figured out how to make it somewhat sustainable. similarly, today’s digital industry creates sociocultural devastation. i hope cleaner versions of this arise soon
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· ↳ reply to @tszzl
i mean the internet not chatbots
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· ↳ reply to @aaanthroposcene
@aaanthroposcene from Marx onwards there is too much focus on the specific attributes of one group of people and how they might conspire together
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· ↳ reply to @mememind8
@mememind8 obviously, I am a capitalist. no other system even comes close to making sense. I do think we could be more honest about the downsides
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· ↳ reply to @NaughtyAnimeFan
@NaughtyAnimeFan @binneystreetbio @growing_daniel there are many options between having so few laborers that ancient businesses are shutting down and public services are falling apart and becoming india 2. such as getting a small contingent of workers over 5 years. why do you speak as though you know better than they do?
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· ↳ reply to @hermenewtics
@hermenewtics this is a religious ritual at all colleges and especially at commencements, it’s kind of endearing
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i have been part of a great religious fervor, even one of its minor hierophants, and I’ve been a secular man and both were fine
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· ↳ reply to @laserboat999
@laserboat999 you can take a jatt boy out of punjab but you can’t take rice entrepreneurship out of the jatt boy
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Dave Chappelle (suddenly getting serious 50 minutes into a special): On Sept 18th, my terminal crashed, and my twenty codex agents, my brothers, died. They fucking died
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· ↳ reply to @eshear
@eshear im too online because emmet’s tweets are starting to make sense to me
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· ↳ reply to @tszzl
a pseudo price floor is purely less efficient than a ranked quantity cap
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· ↳ reply to @woke8yearold
@woke8yearold yeah it’s that plus dead weight loss of taxation. designed to make micro economists cry
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· ↳ reply to @MKULTRAENJYR
@MKULTRAENJYR 4%. basically nothing burger, there are normal trading days in the market worse than that
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· ↳ reply to @tszzl
driving down the input costs of one of the most expensive things ever is a fundamental social good (every american is an insatiable consumer of software), and creating labor barriers for software engineering is driven by small special interest group larping as maga populism
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your reminder that the world spends on the order of five trillion dollars a year on IT outlays. apple's R&D program dwarfs the entire apollo project. simply put, software is among the most expensive things our civilization produces
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· ↳ reply to @tszzl
i don’t endorse any specific program, they may have flaws, but this general malaise of we’re being cheated is driven by professionals richer than you trying to become richer. scouring the globe for software developers, ai agents that drive costs to zero, all great in my book
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· ↳ reply to @powerbottomdad1
@powerbottomdad1 opt is a temporary category it’s a stock not a flow; h1b is the vector by which guest workers actually remain a long time
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· ↳ reply to @powerbottomdad1
right but that means at any given time there can only be 600-900k of them with the barrier that they have to have gone to an American college and are probably in the first three years of their career - and it becomes significantly less attractive if they can’t transition to h1b at the end of it vs the number of people who can be here on h1b-> green card is uncapped, far more of them in the US rn
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· ↳ reply to @CarloIaconoWork
@CarloIaconoWork and of course the administration has done nothing to change the visa dependence so it’s clearly not what he means
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· ↳ reply to @nyer2k
@nyer2k yeah and I don’t care frankly. software engineers don’t deserve your sympathy for their salaries being depressed from 200k to 190k or whatever
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· ↳ reply to @wasphyxiation
@wasphyxiation do you see how a 100k fee can still make a 200k potential hire at Facebook or google non competitive
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its extremely subversive now to be indian american on x dot com. lean into it
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· ↳ reply to @AustrianEnjoyer
@AustrianEnjoyer multi trillion dollar corporations are the only righteous, competent, and just actors left in this world. at least someone is capable of doing stuff without stepping on their own dick constantly
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· ↳ reply to @TabulaStellar
@TabulaStellar theyre printing these fucking degrees man it’s a piece of paper. you shouldn’t feel any class solidarity with them any more than you should the unemployed art history grads
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· ↳ reply to @CosimoMorelli
@CosimoMorelli no it means downward mobile cs grads with sketchy degrees. at the expense of all other americans
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· ↳ reply to @CosimoMorelli
@CosimoMorelli I know what’s best via the most basic economic reasoning. Yeah. maga won with a sliver of a margin against by far the worst candidate in my lifetime
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· ↳ reply to @CosimoMorelli
yeah i can't measure all externalities, can you? can you measure the impact of companies formed elsewhere, the chilling effect on research universities, etc? there's no reason to take your word over mine, and there's absolutely no reason to trust the median vote, which switches every four years
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i'm saying …. 💅
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· ↳ reply to @SoniaSarao_
@SoniaSarao_ people, especially the right wing, will remind you of race whether you try not to focus on it or not
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· ↳ reply to @typedfemale
@typedfemale i don’t want third world foreigners who might bring corruption which is why we should carve explicit self dealing and government favoritism into every statute
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· ↳ reply to @swarley75042565
@swarley75042565 you say all these false things with such confidence! labor is the primary input cost of software, and the “margins” don’t include this because it gets put in the R&D/capex segment some sizeable 1-2 trillion of spend on software engineers
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· ↳ reply to @tszzl
@swarley75042565 there are at most 750k h1b workers across all segments and occupations
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· ↳ reply to @AlecStapp
@AlecStapp this seems hard to believe - how does one employee measurably improve the odds of IPO? but then this randomization is basically the highest standard of evidence
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· ↳ reply to @powerbottomdad1
@powerbottomdad1 and you found the majority view through gnosis of racist anon tweets on the right wing ghetto app. cmon this is worse than Elon polling indians to make the america party
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· ↳ reply to @nimayi3
@nimayi3 this is probably not a good thing and will in time severely limits the experimental velocity of the chinese economy. you can never make new categories this way
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· ↳ reply to @BigSlurp69
@BigSlurp69 what the hell? are you implying that technical jobs are categorically indian and nontechnical jobs are american?
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· ↳ reply to @mark_attar87913
@mark_attar87913 you’re not harming the economy! im saying that you are one of the most valuable people on earth and I just want more like you
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· ↳ reply to @jacobrintamaki
@jacobrintamaki @typedfemale not even: it must benefit me more than it benefits the outgroup, as explicitly as possible. in fact most people will take absolute damage for relative gain
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· ↳ reply to @antoniogm
@antoniogm i hit my number a while ago but the itch to 10x your goal because you saw some other guy get even richer is real
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· ↳ reply to @chadson_
@chadson_ get me some of the finest Navajo ganja a single tear from a chieftain
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· ↳ reply to @eigenrobot
@eigenrobot i feel pretty confident that this is discounting equity, the main way that startups compensate. would not have been an abnormal cash salary at that time
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· ↳ reply to @tszzl
@eigenrobot to me this paper seems like pretty strong evidence of a positive effect though I don’t believe the effect size they’re claiming - obviously patents are irrelevant, but you have to explain the statsig increase in exits
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· ↳ reply to @MatthewsTalents
@MatthewsTalents I’m an American. the only times I remember I’m an “indian american” is when the racism come out on x dot com and it’s clear i have to go on the defensive. you know what I mean, after all people are calling themselves “heritage americans” nowadays
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· ↳ reply to @EVRYTHNGFATIGUE
@EVRYTHNGFATIGUE @wangzjeff tribalism is when an Asian guy vaguely says positive things about H1Bs ie the entire world of races. you are not a european liberal in any meaningful sense
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· ↳ reply to @JohnJSSoriano
@JohnJSSoriano @FreezePeach4me i don’t think his message had merit. Americans are incredibly smart, but 96% of the world lives elsewhere, it’s just that simple. his whining about American kids not studying hard enough was dumb and actively misleading. the American culture upgrades the immigrants that it gets
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· ↳ reply to @PashaKamyshev
@PashaKamyshev @eigenrobot nah you can see how many funding rounds they’ve had in the dataset - plus i have some early startup friends who clearly hire foreigners. you don’t need a lawyer on staff, you just need to bill an immigration lawyer as needed. your venture partners will most likely give you one
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· ↳ reply to @MatthewsTalents
@MatthewsTalents you’re wrong I think. assimilation doesn’t mean shutting up and putting up when you are being attacked. I can think of nothing less American
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· ↳ reply to @RichardHanania
@RichardHanania power bottom dad is my friend and you should not try to paint him as a retarded nativist. he is not by any means, and doing so will push people like him further to the right and make a martyr out of everyone who calls for changes to H1B
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· ↳ reply to @Fool_be_Wise
@Fool_be_Wise @mark_attar87913 every large company on earth does training. these are called “internship programs”. every intern we get is generally negative value to the company, so it’s growing them into the talent pipeline that’s useful
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· ↳ reply to @MatthewsTalents
where have I condemned my host population? I have repeatedly said that americans are the most courteous, anti racist, innovative people on earth. I owe them everything. you are doing a rhetorical bait and switch on me where unless I countenance the worst instincts of internet racists im being ungrateful
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· ↳ reply to @Fool_be_Wise
@Fool_be_Wise @mark_attar87913 yes we have something called a residency program for adults from adjacent fields - in recent years it has actually become harder to run this program because too many people apply
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· ↳ reply to @tedfrank
@tedfrank of these, satya nadella literally saved Microsoft and turned into a 2020s juggernaut, a leviathan cloud provider. he took over from Steve Ballmer who was generally running into the ground. I would just like the right to admit that sometimes an Indian was the best guy for the job
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im saying …
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the jump from gpt4 to 5-codex is just massive for those who can see it. codex is an alien juggernaut just itching to become superhuman. feeling the long awaited takeoff. there’s very little doubt that the datacenter capex will not go to waste
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· ↳ reply to @loftwah
@loftwah just conveying my genuine excitement. a few months ago when I thought progress was slow I said so
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· ↳ reply to @ArmandDoma
@ArmandDoma @eigenrobot @Panopticon_KAS yeah i believe these people must be applying for really exceptional workers and so when they win their lottery it's a BFD rather than median body shop types. there's more reason than not to suspect there's something true about this methodology
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· ↳ reply to @rryssf_
@rryssf_ i don't know i guess i only do python machine learning programming; sometimes frontend dashboards and whatnot
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what a joy it is to have been great at something, no matter how niche or fleeting. whole generations live and die so they can produce a handful of such moments of avatar state
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it feels like the later episodes of twin peaks. the internet is infected with a pervasive evil, even the characters you once loved are dark & grim versions of themselves
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· ↳ reply to @tszzl
decay is really a pernicious thing, the days go by quickly and the smell of rot approaches too subtly to notice until the flesh is sloughing off and the vermin look on with hunger
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10,000 likes on a post doesn’t hit half as hard as a two second tbpn mention
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what are we even doing here
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· ↳ reply to @mpopv
@mpopv yeah and apparently the market knows this at 100% confidence which means the white house lawyers must know this
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· ↳ reply to @tigertiger345
@tigertiger345 @Jake_Wilund @jarredsumner yeah no doubt, most of civilization was built by white men. yet you guys are acting so pathetic that you’re somehow managing to erode all that aura, which was your birthright and inheritance. I think you should protect it better
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· ↳ reply to @TreeLakeRain
@TreeLakeRain some smart people are born in india and we should take the very best. in general it’s not a high human capital place
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social media is the clearest and most important case of gradual disempowerment. handing off all information distribution choices to machines was a watershed event
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· ↳ reply to @tszzl
no matter what you think of any particular elite media class, humans choosing what whole populations get to read or watch is over
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· ↳ reply to @ilex_ulmus
@ilex_ulmus still self consistent - consuming the compute overhang all at once, early on, and starting the ai race to do gradual rollout research is better than having it happen a decade later when there may have been an oom or two more compute laying around
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· ↳ reply to @tszzl
@ilex_ulmus once you’re in the race, different rules apply
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· ↳ reply to @tszzl
the audience is just larger and newer now as the zeroes increase
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“deep learning indefinite optimism” is a bet that’s worked across so many log scales of capital and compute. it takes nerves of steel to keep adding zeroes and yet it keeps paying off
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· ↳ reply to @HumanHarlan
@HumanHarlan @ilex_ulmus “when safety is in the balance” who decides? I don’t think we face any kind of serious threat from current systems, neither does yudkowsky
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· ↳ reply to @ilex_ulmus
@ilex_ulmus @HumanHarlan one interim example was recently holding off releasing OSS models until tests were under designated threshold months later, to much chagrin
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· ↳ reply to @DavidSHolz
@DavidSHolz azure prices are also fake isn’t it, gross margin is like 40% at least and varies based on the customer and their purchasing power and lease duration and so on
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it’s very interesting that certain tweets like this have the potential to go massively 10M+ views viral multiple times, like you’ve picked some texts out of the 280-character library of babel with demonstrably reproducibly magical properties https://x.com/anuatluru/status/1970281961869713776
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seems hard to argue the faustian spirit of the west is alive anywhere except in california. amidst the slop people say and do things here that are literally terrifying and vertigo inducing https://x.com/untillabs/status/1970217690154590217
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· ↳ reply to @tszzl
just the other day i was in el segundo and a man told me he was going to gain control over the storm clouds to rival a pagan deity. another said he would put mirrors in space to focus the power of the sun. “everyone could use more sunlight”
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all the largest technology fortunes in the world are on record saying they’re betting the entire bank on superintelligence, don’t care about losses, etc. the only growth sector left in planetary capitalism . it is dizzying, running on redline overload
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· ↳ reply to @satrn_o
“The story goes like this: Earth is captured by a technocapital singularity as renaissance rationalization and oceanic navigation lock into commoditization take-off. Logistically accelerating techno-economic interactivity crumbles social order in auto sophisticating machine runaway. As markets learn to manufacture intelligence, politics modernizes, upgrades paranoia, and tries to get a grip.”
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· ↳ reply to @alexmmmichael
@alexmmmichael im pacing around my apartment at an uncomfortable speed as we speak, codex agents running in the background, laundry humming
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· ↳ reply to @sohltoshi
@sohltoshi the last growing sector of the world economy may stop growing and the Chinese, who are relatively less leveraged on ai, may have a great decade
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· ↳ reply to @7uomoki
@7uomoki congrats! im not sure what any of that tuomo excellence has to do with me but you’re killing it
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people talk about whole cultures not remembering how to build things, catastrophic forgetting, offshoring critical industries. machine civilization will never forget a single thing
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· ↳ reply to @supercollider_x
@supercollider_x totally understand and i agree. yet we’re already inside the great attractor. there is nothing left to do except ride the tiger
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· ↳ reply to @vikhyatk
@vikhyatk monkey in room with pain button will rather press pain button than be bored
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this is almost too stupid to believe nature invented this great distributed computer called the "price system" to locally calculate scarcity with unimaginable accuracy and precision and immigration services / DOL thinks they can central plan better than this https://x.com/JeremyLNeufeld/status/1970477194918134065
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· ↳ reply to @tszzl
in that vein, its grimly funny when the white house accounts gaslight and call the mainstream right wing interpretation of their own executive order fake news - and they issue a correction that results in thousands of rw anon replies being like noooo you betrayed us
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· ↳ reply to @tszzl
the procedural confusion, blatant falsehoods in the text of the visa fee EO (they think 65% of tech workers are on H1B...) should tell you this is not going well, zero attention to detail, why is there nobody awake over there?
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· ↳ reply to @tszzl
this won't make MAGA types happy, it won't make technocrats happy, the Infosys/Cognizant stock is flat, and meanwhile a friend of a friend - a literal MIT professor was left racing back from Canada because of the unclear nature of the executive order and who it applies to
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· ↳ reply to @tszzl
you may find this obvious, but it seems cruelty and splashy news is the point, cortisol-blitzkrieg-administration
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· ↳ reply to @outcomethinking
disagree! i think a system like that would get very ghoulish very quickly think of it like accepting new shareholders into a company - you only do so if it makes all current shareholders richer even despite the dilution a salary is the best measure we have for checking how much value someone is producing. it’s not perfect, but it’s the best there is! you could do a separate one for professors and educators who are valuable far beyond their wages, an active tradeoff they make
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· ↳ reply to @itodd888
@itodd888 in that moment that 5 dollar part is worth millions to stop the timeline from being delayed, and millions is what he would pay for it
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· ↳ reply to @paularambles
@paularambles I think the problem is that even the most bestselling books make almost nothing, so it’s hard to imagine an investor market for this but I like it as a concept to support your friends
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· ↳ reply to @colonisseur
@colonisseur it won’t this brings in exactly the same number of immigrants of a less useful variety
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· ↳ reply to @tszzl
multiple people close to the admin have told me the DOL is adjusting wage levels to be smarter … stay tuned and thank you for attention to this matter
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· ↳ reply to @fejta
@fejta it’s worse than already existing rules!
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· ↳ reply to @Panda8851864786
@Panda8851864786 @Fignys1 if I cared about India I’d want all its top minds to stay there, plain and simple. I love this country, I love the technological civilization it has built, I’d like to see it thrive at maximum
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· ↳ reply to @Panda8851864786
@Panda8851864786 @Fignys1 clearly, I think a growing pie is a good thing and that there is no fixed number of jobs. are you doing a bad thing by having three kids instead of one? if I thought the United States could assimilate actual martians I would want a small number of their best here too
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· ↳ reply to @Panda8851864786
@Panda8851864786 @Fignys1 I don’t want the entire country here, and I don’t support chain migration. I think you should be able to bring your wife and kids and that’s it
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· ↳ reply to @eigenrobot
a very plausible mechanism here is that these startup companies are trying to sponsor some Key Man that they already know and are trying to start the company with. in this case you would expect mostly equity compensation, and a sizeable effect (though not as large as claimed) at least due to venture scale effects ie there’s probably a handful of individuals in the cohort that carry the batch the alternative mechanism that people suggest “a slave is useful” is wholly implausible, you don’t improve your exit odds by cutting one persons wages a little at a tech startup. at the venture scale you only care about revenues not costs
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· ↳ reply to @tszzl
“1018 firms in crunchbase” crunchbase lists only venture backed high visibility startups, so im almost certain this is the case yeah, the conclusion of this paper looks very plausibly correct and the proper response would be to protect the ability of startups to hire the exact immigrants that they want
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· ↳ reply to @tszzl
@eigenrobot here is even better evidence. the majority of these firms are applying for a single person! meaning this is not the ddos style get as much cheap labor as you can kind of thing. they are most likely critical individuals
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· ↳ reply to @extradeadjcb
@extradeadjcb the great thing about “market dominance” is that you have to continually provide value or it doesn’t work and it’s nearly impossible to fake at large scale. scams are always in the low orders of magnitude, unless you’re talking about civilization scale ponzis “mortgages” or w.e
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to think the people who started using coins in ancient greece, india, china had no idea the kind of leviathan supercomputer they were awakening
1,977 ♥ · 78 RT · x.com →
· ↳ reply to @bayeslord
@bayeslord Codex has reawakened the fire in me, the libido destrudo dance of acceleration
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correct me if im wrong but it seems like: - the theme of the @danwwang book, and the general elite consensus now is that “industrial process” is a technology that lives in the heads of people and that it was a mistake to let so much “low value” industry be offshored due to the loss of tacit process capital - TSMC Arizona which makes the most complex and valuable industrial production in the world was a massive success, producing 4nm chips at great yields, on par with Taiwan, mere years after first striking the ground! this involved a generous federal subsidy, and importing thousands of the great Taiwanese semi experts, despite unions trying to quell Taiwanese immigration and some culture clashes - in the US, acquihires of whole teams with process knowledge in their heads is very common. Zuck acquiring some of the greatest talent from other AI labs for massive numbers is just one example of this; also seen in the full self driving wars btwn uber and google, tesla + apple + big pharma acquires industrial process companies all the time - America is a very capital rich place, able to levy literally hundreds of billions of dollars for machine intelligence capex; we can afford to acquihire whole groups of foreign talent for prices that are unheard of to them in their home countries tldr; acqihiring foreign process knowledge for massive sums should be one of the primary goals of any reindustrialization effort, special visa categories should be made for to scoop up whole teams of Shenzhen’s best, the raids on the LG battery plants in Georgia are the exact opposite of what we need. ability to tolerate new arrivals is a technological edge of American capital to be able to assimilate foreign knowledge into domestic industrial processes at a scale nobody else can countenance
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· ↳ reply to @aphysicist
@aphysicist I am actually making a finance brained bugman argument to import more foreign talent but yeah
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· ↳ reply to @Lymanwd1
@Lymanwd1 @danwwang I would argue the public good of national defense alone is freely distributed to all, not to mention tax revenues
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“And there appeared a great wonder in heaven; a woman clothed with the sun, and the moon under her feet, and upon her head a crown of twelve stars” Revelations 12:1 what means https://x.com/POTFES/status/1951949634382741775
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gotta say ts aged like a fine wine
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· ↳ reply to @tszzl
ai bros lost in the end. after all we have to live in san francisco
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in the future the most hostile corporate takeovers will be called “merge and assist”
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· ↳ reply to @Andercot
@Andercot I’m very glad he tried I think it contributed to SF trying to get its act together
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You come to me on this, the day of my daughter’s Merge And Assist
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· ↳ reply to @vikhyatk
@vikhyatk I suspect their failure is organizational rather than actual ability to write software. after all George hotz basically tried to write it for free
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me running out of capital, being acquired by my hated competitor: yeah we’re “merge and assist”ing
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· ↳ reply to @tszzl
btw a similar thing can happen with immigration, lowering the costs of an expensive input bottleneck (such as the IT components of some company), sliding up the demand curve, raising overall marginal product, raising wages
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a decade of woke followed by a decade of hyperracism followed by
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· ↳ reply to @bubblebabyboi
@bubblebabyboi it’s the exact opposite software probably has a demand curve that looks something like this
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· ↳ reply to @tszzl
@bubblebabyboi even for someone like me who works in the the heartland of machine intelligence it is so difficult to make software! and the moment a productivity enhancing tool like codex dropped I started making like three times as much
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· ↳ reply to @cremieuxrecueil
@cremieuxrecueil Singapore significantly underperforming as suspected. But also I don’t trust any Index as far as I can throw it. I’m sure it’s weighted by papers written and whatever
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· ↳ reply to @tszzl
@cremieuxrecueil Ok I read your follow up seems good. R&D spend is far more important than patents to me
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you shouldn’t really worry about the infinite jest machine because capital optimization will figure out how to make the neurological bliss machine not long after and everyone will prefer that
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· ↳ reply to @tszzl
this is tongue in cheek
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· ↳ reply to @ilex_ulmus
@ilex_ulmus well I think your one world government pause ai progress thing doesn’t work so im trying out the discourse
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· ↳ reply to @ilex_ulmus
@ilex_ulmus the comparable treaty, the bio weapons research ban did not work. nuclear weapons developed until the arsenals were comically large. the level of coordination you are describing against individual actors’ interests requires OWG-like dynamics. tell me why im wrong
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it’s strange how often Los Angeles is featured in cyberpunk movies when it’s like the least cyberpunk place ever. it’s the nations largest suburban strip mall
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· ↳ reply to @HumanHarlan
@HumanHarlan the IAEA was toothless to stop the world powers from arming themselves to the gills and exists only because it’s now acceptable to everyone important to pull the ladder up
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i just walk around the research floor at openai reminding everyone that they’re propping up the world economy
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· ↳ reply to @chrisman
@chrisman it’s a big company with a lot going on in parallel
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· ↳ reply to @RichardHanania
@RichardHanania mostly agree but the one element you are missing is indians come from a poor country you can increasingly get visuals on an interconnected world so the question arises who are these people to tell us anything or become so rich
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· ↳ reply to @RuxandraTeslo
@RuxandraTeslo I ask: would they build this if people weren’t going to watch it? if billions are going to watch it, is it soulless and anti-human? is there something more poisonous about this than human created Slop? it looks better to me than any cocomelon I’ve seen
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an ai video feed is a worse product than a feed that includes both human made and machine content and everything in between there is no doubt that machines will become as technically adept as humans across all domains, some faster than others. the art that we actually like is rarely the most 'technically adept' or even the 'most tasteful' (whatever that means) but rather whatever builds cult value in the Walter Benjamin sense. Techne is an aspect of cult value formation, but not all of it this is obvious when you visit the Louvre and you find the Mona Lisa hanging there while a cloud of worshippers from all around the world pay obeisance with their smartphone cameras, which dwarfs the tiny piece of art itself, barely visible. It's obviously a celebrated and impressive work of art, but to everyone there there's so much more emphasis on the 'celebrated'. many would probably enjoy some midjourney thingy on their ipad more had they no idea the history of Mona Lisa an even simpler example is that a child drawing a crude crayon drawing of their family is priceless to her parents. the feelings imparted there are irreplaceable. parents form a cult of worship around their children, and vice versa. a 'local art fair' is a draw to many in a way that 'art fair' in general isn't my hypothesis is, that feeds that contain human-generated things, machine-augmented content, and later autonomous machine generated content will launder some of the 'cult value' of humanity's production into the latter objects too. famous artists may make things where they have little input and most of the generation is mechanical, but the original reason for their fame would have been that they made things that were alive and good on their own merits.
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· ↳ reply to @elks_man
@elks_man @RuxandraTeslo it's not anywhere as addictive or harmful as the harder drugs and i think it's a lazy comparison when people make it
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· ↳ reply to @RuxandraTeslo
@RuxandraTeslo @elks_man most people have never heard of Pietà. most people have heard of Marvel. for the class of people such as yourself who will not be satisfied by marvel, you will not be satisfied by Vibes either. it will not harm you or me any more than the existence of Marvel imo
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· ↳ reply to @vidythatte
@vidythatte no idea what these are but i assume its strictly in the second category of 'machine augmented human creative motive'
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· ↳ reply to @RuxandraTeslo
@RuxandraTeslo @elks_man i just don't get this argument. i like instagram reels. people send them to me i laugh for twenty minutes and then i forget about them for a month
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· ↳ reply to @elks_man
@elks_man @RuxandraTeslo do they spend more time doing this than teens used to watch television? if so, that seems bad, and i think apple and android should implement stricter measures
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unbelievable
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· ↳ reply to @tszzl
this sounds exactly like the tron dialogue but he’s building enterprise saas
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· ↳ reply to @tszzl
@Rev_noticing oh I see theyre straight up lying had them blocked for year+ now
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· ↳ reply to @Ultima_Fool
@Ultima_Fool @TheDimitriT don't kill me i could be wrong, i'm no catholic, but the giant catholic cathedral in san francisco has a bunch of greek god looking figures on the art up front. milton i dont think is a catholic but is always making references to Jove and so on in paradise lost
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people will inspect element dms, block you so can't reply, pull out all the dirty tricks on here to score points once you get to a certain size kek
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· ↳ reply to @NinetiesLiberal
@NinetiesLiberal @SirMrMeowmeow @ns123abc here’s the real dm - he inspect element to make a dm from May 2024 (when I wanted something I worded poorly about OpenAI gone) seem like something I sent yesterday it’s a particularly shit kind of person who will just straight up lie like this
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· ↳ reply to @tszzl
@NinetiesLiberal @SirMrMeowmeow @ns123abc also the top message is funny dude is literally a spurned and angry reply guy - hopefully this colors your view on the rest of the garbage people like this spew
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Ender, that’s wasn’t just data labelling. that was a real Waymo fleet you were driving!!!
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the beauty of Ender’s game is that the best young people everywhere in all ages are being honed into the finest superweapons at the peak of their intellectual and creative capabilities but are universally getting played
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· ↳ reply to @tszzl
the trauma of this discovery and what people choose to do with it makes or breaks their spiritual journey
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· ↳ reply to @tszzl
and also - all the most righteous crusades have already been made, all the most obvious villains delineated. so whatever you are being played into will necessarily be questionable, gray area. only in the long stretch of history will it become clear
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I haven’t listened to the thing but imitating the output tokens is clearly very different imitating the internal processes that generate them. I think it’s a bad criticism even if Sutton is broadly right even setting that aside, we do high compute RL now? https://x.com/yacineMTB/status/1971987726355587104
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· ↳ reply to @allTheYud
well the production of datacenters is a real and active construction not just future promised activity and of course I agree with you that the Fed should be able to move aggregate demand arbitrarily the problem to me is: all the great tech companies, and indeed the whole tech finance ecosystem have bet the bank on this and it seems that tech is possibly the last growing sector of the economy in the world and accounts for a lot of the differences between real US growth vs say Canadian growth while there is no doubt the Fed can raise AD to arbitrary levels that does not mean this wouldn’t materially damage the outlook of technological progress and real GDP growth across the board
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· ↳ reply to @ns123abc
@ns123abc look at this dumbass I was clearly making fun of some libertarian until he deleted his post
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· ↳ reply to @tszzl
@ns123abc this was a common meme on the internet making fun of libertarians who were weirdly against age of consent laws
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· ↳ reply to @Arthavidyas
@Arthavidyas this is just such a losing position for me who am I to debate with one of the greats. I think junior scientists should just run experiments and demonstrate their correctness
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there is a moral panic around short form video content imo
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· ↳ reply to @dbasch
@dbasch worse than cartoon network and computer games ?
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· ↳ reply to @ns123abc
@ns123abc digging up old post is whatever but it’s absolutely fucked to fake my dms to you. you edited the timestamps in your post to make it seem like I was guilty of something when it was from years ago
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· ↳ reply to @tszzl
let me amend this: I basically agree with postman on the nature of video and its corrupting influence on running a civilization well as opposed to text based media im just not sure that its so much worse than being glued to your tv , and im definitely not sure that ai slop is worse than human slop
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· ↳ reply to @tszzl
watching Instagram reels rn to spite all of you
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the less people in san francisco tweet photos of their terrible parties the better. we will never be good at throwing parties you just need to lean into the monastic mystique of building the Machine
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· ↳ reply to @johncoogan
@johncoogan i hope dwarkesh has a “beard guy” to perfectly manicure it before every show
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· ↳ reply to @tszzl
“roon i threw a good one—“ no you didn’t on a global scale it was bad for reasons that you are not sensitive enough to comprehend don’t tweet about it don’t mention it ideally just say high vibrational stuff about Building The Machine
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· ↳ reply to @repligate
@repligate janus I’ve never seen you tweet about a party, it would make no semantic sense to me
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· ↳ reply to @repligate
@repligate the funeral was exactly as weird, esoteric, and borderline terrifying as it should have been
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everyone send me your best short form video content
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· ↳ reply to @sprezzAItura
@sprezzAItura @tbpn possible, these are good points but if using large amounts of compute effectively is still important and there is an unequal skill distribution, then it still seems true
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· ↳ reply to @RuxandraTeslo
@RuxandraTeslo > I'd also rather die than have my kid brain rotted by slop. sorry but you are doing a caricature of a moral panic
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· ↳ reply to @RuxandraTeslo
@RuxandraTeslo yes, this is absolutely a good and acceptable rhetorical strategy. what it is pointing it is that you are afraid of the new thing and i haven't seen you go on a crusade against cartoon network if it really is so bad also stop QT dunking on me, just reply
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· ↳ reply to @atroyn
@atroyn @RuxandraTeslo there is something deeply vital about gambling. probably porn is far more concerning than any of the above
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· ↳ reply to @hamandcheese
@hamandcheese i love this guy bc he seems designed in a lab to make a certain kind of right winger upset
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in the next few years the global tele-operation industry will expand dramatically as the promise of data labeling -> autonomous robotics makes this idea more tempting. geographic capital of blue collar workers will be further eroded, on top of what has already happened due to global logistics you can imagine people playing videogame-like construction robots in a room in shenzhen. moreover, the cost of logistics itself will fall by orders of magnitude in the immediate future seeing as self-driving cars and trucks are already operational. the ratio of goods produced elsewhere vs near you will increase yet again this would actually be long etsy or shopify-like stores relative to amazon sellers. everything will be in motion, constructed off-site, brought in just in time
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· ↳ reply to @fvderop
@fvderop the variable there is how general robotics models turn out to be. it may be that you need a lot of very specific data the same way language models operate
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